Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[NorthKent1989]

With the unvaccinated taking an unreasonable amount of space in Covid wards I think that we are at a stage whereby if someone like Piers Corbyn turns up at A&E with a “bad cough” then he only gets treatment if there are spare staff available….

I see you’re buying into this divide and rule nonsense then, what a ridiculous and irrational post

 

[43066]

Yes they are higher percentage in some age groups but the NHS weekly vaccination survey for last weeks is also crystal clear that non vaccinated are a higher proportion of younger people

View attachment 107406

A higher proportion of unvaxed people of all age groups end up being hospitalised, that’s true.

But, as you will no doubt concede given those figures, in terms of gross numbers (which is what counts when we are taking about the health service being overwhelmed), vaccinated older groups massively outweigh unvaccinated young/healthy groups (who are statistical outliers).

 

[Cowley]

I think all discussions on whether the NHS should refuse treatment for unvaccinated people needs to be carried on in this thread now.

Should the NHS refuse treatment for people that haven’t had the vaccination?

And this is the problem - if people refuse the vaccines of their own volition, then they take the risk something may happen, and not heap it onto the general, weary, population If they refuse the vaccine, for no 'good' reason, then they should waive the rights for Hospital treatment, harsh ...

www.railforums.co.uk

Thanks.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You do need to look at the numbers vaccinated in each group as well though.

Should have read the whole document as they conveniently provided that data by 100k of the population age groups

 

[21C101]

I seem to recall the case data isn't affected by weekends. If anything it increases throughout the week.

Death data is what is affected by weekends, with a much smaller number on a Monday, and a surge on a Tuesday due to the mass reporting of those that happened over the weekend that had no one there to publish the numbers.

Here are the last 7 days cases

Tues 21st 90,629
Mon 20th 91,207
Sun 19th 82,347
Sat 18th 89,571
Fri 17th 92,285
Th 16th 87,438
We 15th 77,710


It can be seen that , far from cases doubling every three days numbers have now been flat for several days.

Here are the last six weeks Sunday to Tuesday figures.

While I grant you that Tuesday figures have often been a little lower than Monday Figures, without exception the Tuesday Figures have been massively higher than Sunday figures until this week when the Tuesday from Sunday gap is the only one that has been a lower than 10,000 increase in absolute terms and in percentage terms well under half the increase percentage wise of previous weeks.

I suspect the virus is running out of people to infect already because so many now have antibodies.

No wonder the gloomster scientists are panicking. They desperately needed a lockdown last night so they could claim that the lockdown was bringing down the figures. They will now, largely thanks to Fraser Nelsons intervention, be a busted flush

Tues 21st 90,629
Mon 20th 91,207
Sun 19th 82,347

Tues 14th 58,870
Mon 13th 53,923
Sun 12th 48,151

Tues 7th 54,279
Mon 6th 57,833
Sun 5th 39,919

Tues 30th 54,519
Mon 29th 55,055
Sun 28th 38,895

Tues 23rd 47,301
Mon 22nd 49,786
Sun 21st 36,508

Tues 16th 45,446
Mon 15th 49,993
Sun14th 34,805

 

[eastdyke]

.....
It can be seen that , far from cases doubling every three days numbers have now been flat for several days.
.....

Surely it was predicted that cases of Omicron (rather than Delta) would double every 3 days?
Delta will still be the majority of cases across the UK.

To see what is happening with Omicron in the UK then look eg at Lambeth which seems to be at or close to our epicentre having had relatively low overall case rates in the recent past.

I am expecting the peaks in Lambeth to be happening perhaps in 7-10 days [or hopefully less] from now, just like they did in Gauteng where from very little residual delta their cases are almost all Omicron and now falling away quite fast.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Surely it was predicted that cases of Omicron (rather than Delta) would double every 3 days?
Delta will still be the majority of cases across the UK.

To see what is happening with Omicron in the UK then look eg at Lambeth which seems to be at or close to our epicentre having had relatively low overall case rates in the recent past.

I am expecting the peaks in Lambeth to be happening perhaps in 7-10 days [or hopefully less] from now, just like they did in Gauteng where from very little residual delta their cases are almost all Omicron and now falling away quite fast.

Generally most cases are in by T-3 days so this would show it plateauing but C4 news is reporting that alot of people aren't getting themselves tested to avoid having to self isolate in the run upto Xmas. So there view is its not a true reflection of the infection rate. I can see something in this so probably wise to be cautious about this data till after Xmas. However, hospitalisation data is of course not going to be impacted and in London its seen a doubling of occupied beds in under two weeks so caution remains the watchword.

 

[takno]

View attachment 107409


Generally most cases are in by T-3 days so this would show it plateauing but C4 news is reporting that alot of people aren't getting themselves tested to avoid having to self isolate in the run upto Xmas. So there view is its not a true reflection of the infection rate. I can see something in this so probably wise to be cautious about this data till after Xmas. However, hospitalisation data is of course not going to be impacted and in London its seen a doubling of occupied beds in under two weeks so caution remains the watchword.

View attachment 107410

One counter-caveat to that would be that a lot of what was driving the rapid rise in testing before this week was a large increase in the numbers of people getting tested. The fall in tests this week may not even compensate for that.

On the hospital occupation in London, stats earlier in this thread suggested that more than half of the increase in London is with- and not from- Covid. The with-Covid numbers will peak in line with infections rather than 2 weeks later as the from-Covid ones do. That means that there will be two hospitalisation curves, one of which may already have peaked and the other which may peak around the new year

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Are we all satisfied with the back benchers finally causing the government enough drama that they can’t govern and put in restrictions? I know I am!

 

[david1212]

Four quick screen grabs from

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
and
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations

London area
Cases


Vaccinations



Manchester
Cases

Vaccinations


Draw your own conclusions ....

 

[Simon11]

Four quick screen grabs from

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
and
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations

London area
Cases
View attachment 107418

Vaccinations

View attachment 107419

Manchester
Cases
View attachment 107420
Vaccinations
View attachment 107421

Draw your own conclusions ....

My challenge to you is whether the population numbers are correct in the first place? This should answer some of the gap.

With a huge amount of people moving back home abroad due to covid and Brexit, plus people moving away from cities to the countryside, are the existing population figures still correct?

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Are we all satisfied with the back benchers finally causing the government enough drama that they can’t govern and put in restrictions? I know I am!

Let's hope it stays like that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

One counter-caveat to that would be that a lot of what was driving the rapid rise in testing before this week was a large increase in the numbers of people getting tested. The fall in tests this week may not even compensate for that.

Lambeth testing data looks pretty robust despite my earlier comment

On the hospital occupation in London, stats earlier in this thread suggested that more than half of the increase in London is with- and not from- Covid. The with-Covid numbers will peak in line with infections rather than 2 weeks later as the from-Covid ones do. That means that there will be two hospitalisation curves, one of which may already have peaked and the other which may peak around the new year

Granted the hospitalisation data is a bit smoke and mirrors but whether you are with or of covid means nothing to the hospital in terms of the extra problems a covid patient presents.

 

[Cowley]

Granted the hospitalisation data is a bit smoke and mirrors but whether you are with or of covid means nothing to the hospital in terms of the extra problems a covid patient presents.

Well actually it probably does a bit doesn’t it?
With this strain spreading so quickly at the moment I’d imagine that they’d assume that most incoming patients might well be already effected with it as they arrive?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

So Boris has said no further restrictions before Christmas but “ can’t rule out further restrictions “ after Christmas come on Boris you know your going to implement further restrictions either from the 26th 27th or 28th so why don’t you just be honest and say so now so people can plan amend and prepare accordingly ….

sorry I forgot a politician being honest ??? I must have been at the sherry early lol

Johnson may have made another rod for his own back there.

While in his context "Christmas" means Christmas Day and Boxing Day, there would be no difficulty at all in anyone claiming that Christmas runs until after the 12th night, i.e. midnight on 5th January. Which means that if he introduces any restrictions at all prior to 6th January, he can legitimately be slated for lying again.

That's before we consider the argument some people make that strictly speaking Christmas runs until Candlemas, which is 2nd February...

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Johnson may have made another rod for his own back there.

While in his context "Christmas" means Christmas Day and Boxing Day, there would be no difficulty at all in anyone claiming that Christmas runs until after the 12th night, i.e. midnight on 5th January. Which means that if he introduces any restrictions at all prior to 6th January, he can legitimately be slated for lying again.

That's before we consider the argument some people make that strictly speaking Christmas runs until Candlemas, which is 2nd February...

Time to grant Wizzard's wish!

 

[kristiang85]

To me Christmas finishes on the day I go back to work, on the 4th. Any restrictions will be impinging on my personal time I value highly, and after losing two Easters and one Christmas so far, I will not forgive any of this one being lost too.

 

[Bikeman78]

It doesn’t help that we have a situation where Labour claim to “own” the NHS, and it suits them electorally to propagate the notion that the Conservatives are only ever one step away from destroying it, knowing that it’s a vote cow for them because of the way people seem to worship it. Indeed this may to some extent explain why Labour are so keen to demonstrate support for the NHS in the form of imposing restrictions.

We certainly need to move away from all this, and have a proper discourse about the NHS, free from misty eyes. At the moment it has proven unprepared for a pandemic, and increasing numbers of people are having bad experiences when trying to use it.

It wasn't great before Covid. Three hour waits in A&E, massive waiting lists for operations. As for trying to get a GP appointment, for as long as I can remember it's been a case of listening to an engaged tone for ages or join a queue outside the surgery 15 minutes before it opens. Then they have the cheek to ask if it's urgent. I can't speak for others but I have to pretty desperate before I waste my time joining that queue.

 

[brad465]

The i are reporting that if daily hospital admissions in London with covid remain below 400 a day by the end of this week, new restrictions in England could be avoided (the latest daily value is 245), citing London as being ahead in the Omicron wave:

New Covid restrictions could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week

There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing - but remain at a high level

inews.co.uk

Fresh restrictions in England after Christmas could be avoided if hospital admissions in London stay below 400 a day by the end of this week, i understands.

Ministers and scientific advisers are watching closely the number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals in the capital, as it is the leading edge of the Omicron wave and will provide some of the first real-world data on whether the variant is more severe in the UK.

The question of severity is the missing piece of the Omicron jigsaw, and Boris Johnson has been unable to make a decision about further restrictions in England without it.

The latest figure for London admissions, from last Sunday 19 December is 245, and while the daily figure is rising, it has not increased as rapidly as Covid cases in London in the past two weeks.

While the figure of 400 is not a hard and fast threshold, it will provide a good guide of whether the huge scale of Omicron cases, above 80,000 in England for the past week, will translate into hospital admissions and put severe pressure on the NHS throughout January.

If London admissions remain below 400, it could mean no legally enforced restrictions are needed after Christmas, although there could be tougher guidance announced by the Prime Minister on 27 December.

Hospital admissions in London are not the only metric being used to assess the severity of Omicron, but is a key measure.

Separately, the UK Health Security Agency will produce early data on severity, analysing vaccination status and age of people admitted to hospital with the Omicron variant, which is also expected before Christmas Eve.

However the situation is still fluid, and ministers stress that all options remain in reserve if hospitals come under serious pressure over the New Year.

New figures published by the government’s coronavirus dashboard shows how London continues to be the epicentre of the Omicron wave.

In the seven-day period up to 16 December, there were 131,061 cases in the capital, with 1455.8 cases per 100,000 people.

But some boroughs are continuing to show the highest case rates of the pandemic for younger age groups, with one in 16 people aged 25 to 29 testing positive in the week to 16 December, or 6393.5 cases per 100,000.

While hospital admissions lag cases by two to three weeks, cases in the capital started to rise rapidly at the start of December, meaning that uptick would be felt in covid wards by now.

There are currently 1,904 people with covid in London hospitals, compared to 3,367 this time a year ago.

Latest figures for the UK – including in London, which in the past week has seen the highest case rates of anywhere in the UK since the pandemic began – show signs that the Omicron wave could be plateauing.

Analysis by the UK Health Security Agency showed that, following a rapid rise in the past fortnight, the increase in cases and suspected cases of Omicron is slowing in the capital.

And across the UK daily reported cases were around 90,000 for the sixth day running – suggesting that, while infections are at a new higher level, they are not rising beyond that.

The last time London saw at least 400 admissions a day was everyday between the 20/12/20-01/02/21, all before the vaccine was widespread. The number is rising at the moment and has a bit of room before hitting 400, so one to keep watching:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

 

[21C101]

Are we all satisfied with the back benchers finally causing the government enough drama that they can’t govern and put in restrictions? I know I am!

Me too, and Fraser Nelson deserves a knighthood.

 

[yorksrob]

The i are reporting that if daily hospital admissions in London with covid remain below 400 a day by the end of this week, new restrictions in England could be avoided (the latest daily value is 245), citing London as being ahead in the Omicron wave:

New Covid restrictions could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week

There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing - but remain at a high level

inews.co.uk

The last time London saw at least 400 admissions a day was everyday between the 20/12/20-01/02/21, all before the vaccine was widespread. The number is rising at the moment and has a bit of room before hitting 400, so one to keep watching:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

View attachment 107442

Not sure I agree with that.

They need to base it on the number of patients in hospital because of covid, not "with" it.

 

[dave87016]

The i are reporting that if daily hospital admissions in London with covid remain below 400 a day by the end of this week, new restrictions in England could be avoided (the latest daily value is 245), citing London as being ahead in the Omicron wave:

New Covid restrictions could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week

There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing - but remain at a high level

inews.co.uk

The last time London saw at least 400 admissions a day was everyday between the 20/12/20-01/02/21, all before the vaccine was widespread. The number is rising at the moment and has a bit of room before hitting 400, so one to keep watching:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

View attachment 107442

Charming, if I remember correctly at the beginning of the pandemic , the north of England had the biggest rate , and we had to have restrictions imposed on us then while London etc could go about their lives as normal , now that it’s London with the worryingly high rate we have to join them and have restrictions imposed on us based on the above quoted post , that is typical it’s all about London - they got the worse omicron rates so the rest of the country has to suffer

 

[bramling]

Exactly. Whilst fortunately I have never really required its services my parents did in later life my father in the late naughties and my mother between 2014.

I won't bore everyone what exactly happened but put it this way I wasn't exactly happy. Yes, they were elderly but deserved better.

My mother was particularly badly treated after breaking her leg in 2014. Lost her mobility thanks to lack of physio.

She was sent to a rehab centre for a month and all she did until a few days before discharge was sit around. My mother was bored stiff and from what she told me staff kept asking her daft questions the nature of which appeared both to her and myself designed to do a box ticking exercise to ascertain if she had dimentia, which she didn't. They would have done better to have got her mobile again.

When she was in both hospital and rehab centre no body made a point of speaking to me and when I did approach a doctor doing his rounds the response to my questions was "Don't ask me I am only the duty Doctor!". That really piddled me off. In my job if I was asked a question I would make a point of finding out or giving the contact details of someone who could provide information.

When her time for discharge approached they hurriedly gave her some exercises on using a Zimmer frame and then discharged her after someone from social services spoke to me.

They gave her a non folding Zimmer which didn't fit the car, some risers for her bed and for the sofa and that was it. I ended up buying her a decent wheelchair and better Zimmer.

She never regained her mobility and spiralled down hill until her demise in 2020.

Yes she was elderly but she had been fit and active until tripping she deserved much better. I dare say there are many others who have had similar experiences to mine.

That is why the NHS needs a total rebuild.

I’m aware of two people who have had NHS experiences in recent years, and they’ve both been negative.

The first was a friend’s elderly mother, who was diagnosed with cancer at the age of 89. To be fair there wasn’t really much expectation to be able to do much at that age, however the care received was dire. One day my friend arrived to visit and found his mother lying in her own excrement.

The other is perhaps even more concerning. Firstly a friend’s grandmother went for routine physio, caught Covid in the process, and subsequently passed away. This was then passed to another family member (under Cancer treatment), who was essentially dumped in a room, given an oxygen mask, told “there’s nothing more we can do for her”, and checked up on every couple of hours, apparently having to ask four times even for an extra pillow.

Charming, if I remember correctly at the beginning of the pandemic , the north of England had the biggest rate , and we had to have restrictions imposed on us then while London etc could go about their lives as normal , now that it’s London with the worryingly high rate we have to join them and have restrictions imposed on us based on the above quoted post , that is typical it’s all about London - they got the worse omicron rates so the rest of the country has to suffer

London did get tier 4 last year when the “Kent variant” first came to light. To be fair I think just about everywhere has had its turns variously for having high and low infection numbers. And one can hardly say London has had star treatment - look at the issues they’ve had getting funding for TfL, something not really seen elsewhere.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The i are reporting that if daily hospital admissions in London with covid remain below 400 a day by the end of this week, new restrictions in England could be avoided (the latest daily value is 245), citing London as being ahead in the Omicron wave:

New Covid restrictions could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week

There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing - but remain at a high level

inews.co.uk

The last time London saw at least 400 admissions a day was everyday between the 20/12/20-01/02/21, all before the vaccine was widespread. The number is rising at the moment and has a bit of room before hitting 400, so one to keep watching:

The other thing they should look is the daily churn as that is a good measure of how long the stays are

London	13-Dec-21​	14-Dec-21​	15-Dec-21​	16-Dec-21​	17-Dec-21​	18-Dec-21​	19-Dec-21​	20-Dec-21​	21-Dec-21​
Beds Occupied	1,360	1,349	1,372​	1,460​	1,534​	1,573​	1,666​	1,819​	1,904​
Admissions	169	199	201	193	220	210	245
Delta from previous day		-11​	23​	88​	74​	39​	93​	153​	85​

This is from the NHS England statistic page. Also this is the worst case stat which includes nosocomial acquired infections which is why it has a lag on the data. So currently of the 1437 admitted over 7 days upto 19/12 has resulted in a nett increase of 306 occupied beds. Clearly there is maximum capacity of beds which is lower than than absolute numbers due to covid staff absences so that in the end may become the limiting factor.

 

[yorkie]

Charming, if I remember correctly at the beginning of the pandemic , the north of England had the biggest rate , and we had to have restrictions imposed on us then while London etc could go about their lives as normal , now that it’s London with the worryingly high rate we have to join them and have restrictions imposed on us based on the above quoted post , that is typical it’s all about London - they got the worse omicron rates so the rest of the country has to suffer

It has got nothing to do with that; the issue is that we know how the virus behaved in South Africa but there is some doubt about how it will behave in the UK; London is ahead so we will get the data from London first. If London can cope then we know other places can. I do share your concern that if London can't cope that does not necessarily guarantee problems of the same scale elsewhere but the reality is a lockdown for London only just isn't going to be practicable or palatable in the current climate.

I am not justifying any restrictions; I am dead against them, but I can see the value of seeing if the London picture is similar to that in South Africa before making a decision. In other places the decision has been made to distrust the South Africa data so at least we are doing better than most places. If Labour was in power we'd be locked down now!

 

[DustyBin]

Should have read the whole document as they conveniently provided that data by 100k of the population age groups
View attachment 107407

I generally do but I hadn’t looked at the latest one and I was making a general point, not trying to prove or disprove anything.

 

[yorkie]

Covid: Self-isolation cut from 10 days to seven with negative tests

The new rules in England mean some people could end their self-isolation in time for Christmas.

www.bbc.co.uk

People infected with Covid in England can stop self-isolating up to three days early if they test negative twice, it has been announced.
They will now be able to end quarantine after seven days instead of 10 by providing negative lateral flow results on day six and day seven.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said it would minimise disruption caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.

A positive development but doesn't go far enough in my opinion. I think vaccinated people should be free to end isolation after 7 days without a test.

There is no change for close contacts; vaccinated close contacts do not need to isolate while unvaccinated close contacts still need to isolate for 10 days.

I won't be doing any tests and I hope others who are not symptomatic consider not getting tested either; asymptomatic testing is unwarranted and unsustainable.

 

[Freightmaster]

Four quick screen grabs from

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
and
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinationshttps://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
<snip>

Draw your own conclusions ....

My conclusion is Correlation does not imply causation





MARK

 

[yorksrob]

It has got nothing to do with that; the issue is that we know how the virus behaved in South Africa but there is some doubt about how it will behave in the UK; London is ahead so we will get the data from London first. If London can cope then we know other places can. I do share your concern that if London can't cope that does not necessarily guarantee problems of the same scale elsewhere but the reality is a lockdown for London only just isn't going to be practicable or palatable in the current climate.

I am not justifying any restrictions; I am dead against them, but I can see the value of seeing if the London picture is similar to that in South Africa before making a decision. In other places the decision has been made to distrust the South Africa data so at least we are doing better than most places. If Labour was in power we'd be locked down now!

London could be a bit of an outlier anyway on account a comparatively low vaccination rate, so I'm not at all sure that rates of hospitalisation If they do turn out to be on the high side there (something I doubt anyway) will necessarily be replicated elsewhere across the country.

 

[jumble]

It wasn't great before Covid. Three hour waits in A&E, massive waiting lists for operations. As for trying to get a GP appointment, for as long as I can remember it's been a case of listening to an engaged tone for ages or join a queue outside the surgery 15 minutes before it opens. Then they have the cheek to ask if it's urgent. I can't speak for others but I have to pretty desperate before I waste my time joining that queue.

Agreed
The situation with my NHS dentist is astonishing
I had a checkup a few weeks ago and was sent for an all round head scan
Yesterday I went in to followw up
2 Receptionists
First asks my date of birth
I ask second what are the chances of an appointment soon
She says no appointments what ever available but call 101 if you need urgent treatment
First dentist says you are under treatment so what about tomorrow 12.45
Can you do Thursday by any chance I say
Sure 09.45
I wonder if the same people who closed all the dedicated Covid hubs in Hillingdon are running this

Last time when I had toothache I called 101 who tried to tell me to get a temp filling from a chemist despite the fact that the Dentist had told me they were completely unbooked that afternoon but I needed to go through 101 so effectively these jackkasses are paying dentists to do nothing
I fortunately was able to make 101 see the error of their ways
I wonder how many people with infested roots are infesting A and E departments to get antibiotics because of this kind of stupidity