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Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

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ainsworth74

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Came across this article via Twitter which I thought was quite interesting:


The railway risks becoming irrelevant​

It’s not fun when people are angry with you – but if you want a role in their lives it’s worse when they are indifferent or laugh at you!​


I always find the time to start worrying what a member of your team is up to is when they suddenly go quiet. Chances are they are bunking off early to watch the cricket or out on the golf course, or they are moonlighting or they’ve just given up and are spending their hours doing job applications and interviews. Silence equals ‘apathy’ and that’s when the deepest damage sets in.

It’s this kind of apathy that’s gradually taking hold on the rail industry. The lack of interest is among customers, stakeholders and the media – certainly not staff or management who, in the case of the latter, have taken to social media (often in a cringe worthy way) to hype up their daily activities, as if to remind us all of their relevance. Whilst the empty train seats are nothing new post-Covid, it’s the absence of headlines that the industry is making from customers and other stakeholders, as well as the decline of any chitter chatter you hear about the railway much more noticeable.

The near silence is deafening – that lack of furore about our industry that made us feel special, that we really made a ‘make or break’ difference. They say ‘all publicity is good publicity’ and whenever I arrived home from a backlash from commuters at stations during disruption, or had an MP or other key public figure heap opprobrium on me, I’d feel thrilled that I’d chosen to work in a sector that made so much of a difference that folks would get that stressed if my employer got it wrong.

I chuckle whenever I hear David Lammy MP on his radio show and recall the time I ran Stansted Express and as an adversarial 30-something he completely bawled at me during a meeting in Tottenham, berating me for the West Anglia services I had zero responsibility for. Every time I told him so, it fell on deaf ears and he got angrier. I disliked Lammy for two decades until I tuned into LBC and listened to the sense he talks. I wonder, though, if the trains are as delayed now, as they were back then, whether he’d get even remotely as vexed as he did then? I suspect not.

The problem, of course, has been the societal changes that were gathering pace prior to Covid and were merely exacerbated by the pandemic. We are now not relying on the railway as heavily, if at all, not just because of changing working arrangements but because a lowering of mobility aspirations as, bluntly speaking, we’ve realised it’s not all its cracked up to be. With our trips being less frequent, for work purposes, for instance, when disruption does ensue, we get less bothered about it because it doesn’t feel like an accumulation of several poor journeys on the trot or a build-up of other negative factors that make the whole activity of commuting every day and working in an office gradually unpalatable. This isn’t such a bad thing, but don’t let the reduced audibility of outrage about the service kid you into thinking the proposition is hunky dory. It’s no better than it was pre-pandemic, as the statistics, on many levels, will tell you.

Two industry bigwigs regaled me with their journeys on the network to me this week and commented on how they and other customers just shook their head at the ‘own goals’ that might not have stood out pre-pandemic but, now we’ve got a choice, they are suddenly very visible. Whilst not invoking anger, these shortcomings arouse feelings of dismay and shoulder-shrugging comments of ‘typical railway’. New, over-engineered ticket machines or on-board catering that isn’t available. You know where I’m coming from here, I can tell.

I reflected on my own ‘typical railway’ experiences this week on a tour from Surrey to Accrington, returning via Leeds. I reminded myself that at Shepperton station we used to have two ticket machines of different designs – one was relatively new and for some reason it has been removed so we experienced a queue at the outset of our journey (better than last week when the only machine was out of order and the ticket office closed). At Accrington station, I asked the driver if the train went to Leeds, he said “no” and said “try changing at Todmorden”, so I queried “can I get to Leeds from there?” and he replied, “I have absolutely no idea whatsoever, not a clue at all”. Then on the journey back to London with LNER the ticket machine belligerently refused to sell me the advance ticket showing (but the ticket office did) and there was chaos as the seat reservation system had broken down completely.

...

The media has largely lost interest too – those bad news stories – big and small, seldom make it near the front pages or even into print or online at all, and the lack of gathering narrative about the distinct prospect of a national strike this summer speaks volumes for the industry’s peripheral role. Even last week’s reporting of a Lumo train jolting perilously close to a derailment as it navigated points on a 25mph speed restriction at a hell-raising 75mph, filled column centimetres rather than inches.

Meanwhile, the big press releases from our industry aim to create momentum around the as yet unknown location of Great Brritish Railway’s HQ. I think we’re bigging ourselves up to think your average Joe Public is really interested – even I’m not interested. In any case, it will probably be empty as most of the staff will be working from home. As for the Great British Rail Sale – do me a favour! This was a campaign with small booking and travel windows and fares at times when most folk wouldn’t want to make a journey. And putting transport secretary Grant Shapps as the frontman for such a campaign shows how out of touch the railway is to outsiders!

...

The bus sector feels better positioned than rail. That it serves a more local market and one that is perceived as being closer to the ‘breadline’, whilst also being so closely aligned to the fortunes of High Streets that have become increasingly blighted by the effects of socio-economic changes, means that it is the frayed but just about intact thread that keeps a community alive. It’s the beleaguered heartbeat that keeps going in adversity, seemingly impervious to each setback thrown its way, whilst untainted by those rail industry traits of ridiculous rip-off fares, arcane procedures, fat ‘know it all’ aloof management structures, failed franchises and botched timetables. The bus sector creates an impression of more genuinely ‘facilitating lives’, and the fact that we’re all doing stuff closer to home these days means that it’s seen as an enabler.

Indeed bus would appear to be at a crossroads of opportunity. There’s more emphasis than ever before on active lifestyles – from government to local authorities, quangos and charitable trusts – all have funding-linked business plans with targets around these. If customers are going out of the house, targets can be met on this front, even if they’re just doing a trip a mile down the road. You don’t need a long distance train journey to tick that box, but if the bus didn’t exist, how many wouldn’t leave the house. The sector has already done work to illustrate the positive impact it has on reducing loneliness, mental health and physical conditions in a way that rail hasn’t.

In the absence of a great marketing campaign (with a proper railway top dog as the poster pin-up) combined with folk realising its not all it’s cracked up to be and now working or playing at home, what is the cure to the railway’s increasing irrelevance? Culturally, the industry needs to be open with itself and admit that these ‘typical railway’ imperfections make a mockery of itself and cannot be glossed over on social media. Managers should get out of the clouds, stop producing self-aggrandising videos and realise they’re not as great as they tell everyone they are. In short, the railway needs to act and present itself more professionally. It should constantly reflect on the marketing promise it makes in its various campaigns and then meticulously strive to replicate this every time – not as some kind of ‘holy grail’ but as the standard norm. I would estimate that over 90% of journeys across the UK right now are not delivering what they promised in their advertising. In what other sector would that be acceptable and not warrant a major inquiry?

Silence speaks volumes and for those who love the limelight, or who just like feeling that the service they provide is indispensable for the masses, the railway isn’t the place to be anymore.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Alex Warner has over 28 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector


Not sure I agree with all their conclusions but I do think they have a point in general about the railways possible slide into irrelevance or at least being less relevant. See the huge cuts to ScotRail, including decimation of late night services and the lack of much reaction at all for a recent example. I also thought the author made a very good point about the passenger experience and how, the majority of the time, it doesn't match the advertising and how increasingly that's just seen to be the way it is. Where's the drive to win business (or retain it!) by providing a good experience that matches what the advertising claims?
 
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GRALISTAIR

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It makes me so sad. It is an industry I love and have followed most of my life including childhood. I really do fear an existential threat. Let's say there was a change in government. Will it really make that much difference? I actually doubt it. Nobody will pump money into the railway forever. That also does not bode well for enhancements. Why spend money on enhancements if the railway is in terminal decline?
 

miklcct

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The reliance of railways is so great in the UK that it is usually the only form of public transport in many rural places, where rural buses have largely become non-existent after deregulation. Unlike in Hong Kong where buses are always a backup option when the railway fails, if the railway fails here we are basically doomed that we can go nowhere.

I can't see the railway being irrelevant unless there are minibuses serving every village.
 

Moonshot

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It makes me so sad. It is an industry I love and have followed most of my life including childhood. I really do fear an existential threat. Let's say there was a change in government. Will it really make that much difference? I actually doubt it. Nobody will pump money into the railway forever. That also does not bode well for enhancements. Why spend money on enhancements if the railway is in terminal decline?
Sell it in its entirety to the private sector.
 

Peregrine 4903

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I do think a lot of people are overreacting here to be honest. While I don't think the current situation is great, I don't think in the long term its anywhere near as bad as people are making out.
 

Bletchleyite

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I do think a lot of people are overreacting here to be honest. While I don't think the current situation is great, I don't think in the long term its anywhere near as bad as people are making out.

It is worth pointing out that 80% of 2019 revenue is quite a lot more than 100% of 1998 revenue, say. There has been a lot of growth since then.
 

Dr Hoo

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The reliance of railways is so great in the UK that it is usually the only form of public transport in many rural places, where rural buses have largely become non-existent after deregulation. Unlike in Hong Kong where buses are always a backup option when the railway fails, if the railway fails here we are basically doomed that we can go nowhere.

I can't see the railway being irrelevant unless there are minibuses serving every village.
Hmm...

Obviously there are quite a few stations that do serve rural areas. Or, to be more precise, bits of the rural area that happen to be close to the station. A lot of rural Britain is so far from its nearest railhead that trains are seen as irrelevant, except, perhaps, for a trip to London from a city some way away. Think of (much of) Lincolnshire or Norfolk, or Keswick in the Lake District.

Even where I live, not too far from what are arguably the only properly rural stations in Derbyshire [The likes of Matlock and the Buxton line are more semi-urban ribbon development alongside the A6 that has parallel buses anyway.] the railway is seen as largely for visitors or tourists rather than 'our own' use.

Children obviously use special school and college buses. Adults use cars. The elderly or disabled have demand-responsive provision. There are actually still some local buses but they go to places like Buxton, Bakewell or Chesterfield that you can't get to directly/realistically by train anyway
 

43066

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It makes me so sad. It is an industry I love and have followed most of my life including childhood. I really do fear an existential threat. Let's say there was a change in government. Will it really make that much difference? I actually doubt it. Nobody will pump money into the railway forever. That also does not bode well for enhancements. Why spend money on enhancements if the railway is in terminal decline?

Sorry but this is just scaremongering. Have you actually been on any U.K. trains recently (possibly not if you’re living in the US I suppose)?

I can categorically tell you the railway is *not* in terminal decline. Passenger numbers are recovering well and revenue is back up to around 80% of 2019 levels. It seems many on here have an agenda to ignore these facts and talk down the recovery.
 

Merseysider

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I do think there are some grains of truth in that.

Out of my closest circle of friends I’m the only one in 7 who regularly uses the railway - the others see it as too expensive, too unreliable, too much hassle or a combination of the three.

Passengers are coming back but there is definitely still work to be done in places.
 

miklcct

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Out of my closest circle of friends I’m the only one in 7 who regularly uses the railway - the others see it as too expensive, too unreliable, too much hassle or a combination of the three.
What public transport do they use instead?
 

Starmill

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The reliance of railways is so great in the UK that it is usually the only form of public transport in many rural places, where rural buses have largely become non-existent after deregulation. Unlike in Hong Kong where buses are always a backup option when the railway fails, if the railway fails here we are basically doomed that we can go nowhere.

I can't see the railway being irrelevant unless there are minibuses serving every village.
Yes, but the UK fundamentally doesn't rely on any form of bus or rail for passenger transport. It relies first and foremost on private cars.

I know this has been mentioned to you before, but I'm afraid the UK isn't very much like Hong Kong.

To the majority of the people in this country bus and rail services of all forms are of little or no relevance. It's very sad but it's true.
 

ainsworth74

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Not where I live it doesn’t.
And yet the stats show that the overwhelming majority of journeys are by private transport not bus or train. It might not be the case where you are but on a UK wide basis it is.
 

Starmill

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What public transport do they use instead?
Why would they use public transport? Most people don't use public transport unless one of the following applies:
- They cannot drive or do not have access to a car
- They are going to central London
 

Bletchleyite

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Why would they use public transport? Most people don't use public transport unless one of the following applies:
- They cannot drive or do not have access to a car
- They are going to central London

I'd expand that a bit to "they are going to the centre of a large city, where they live in a suburb of it". Public transport use into central Liverpool*, Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow etc is fairly high too, though not quite as high as London.

In the South East you'd be correct with the above - most people in South East commuterland see trains as for going to London and buses as irrelevant.

* Certainly people who live near Merseyrail stations, even in posh areas like near Aughton Park and Town Green, would generally not even consider driving into Liverpool city centre, and I suspect that's true of Metrolink too (though not the rather poorer diesel suburban routes).
 

43066

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And yet the stats show that the overwhelming majority of journeys are by private transport not bus or train. It might not be the case where you are but on a UK wide basis it is.

Probably true UK wide, but economically significant journeys from the Home Counties to and from London will be carried out by train in many cases.

Clearly journeys within or between areas of low population density aren’t going to support railways, or even bus services. We can’t really blame people for preferring the convenience of their own transport in those situations.

In the South East you'd be correct with the above - most people in South East commuterland see trains as for going to London and buses as irrelevant.

I’d certainly agree with this. My folks have relocated to a fairly affluent, fairly rural part of Kent. Exactly as you say nobody uses buses, everyone has their own car and uses the train to go to London.
 

Starmill

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I'd expand that a bit to "they are going to the centre of a large city, where they live in a suburb of it". Public transport use into central Liverpool*, Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow etc is fairly high too, though not quite as high as London.
It's very slightly different these days but unfortunately the mode shares are still dreadful. I've sat in meetings in Manchester city centre on many occasions and been literally the only person in the room who came by public transport. If you take a look at the capacity of the car parks in central Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool especially, and their relatively affordable prices, it is not difficult to see why. Central London has effectively nowhere to park affordably and the Congestion Charge adds £15 to the rate. I know that people who like public transport have this particular bias in favour of it but I'm afraid it is all to easy to be blind to the reality. And I say this as a person who chooses not to drive. Ever.
 

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What are the costs like?
Indeed. Probably even higher than they were pre-pandemic, I'd imagine.

The railway is facing a crisis the likes of which it's never seen before. The fact that the government stepped in to keep things running during Covid masked this and has given many a false sense of security.

We saw how the Open Access operators withdrew their services as lockdowns and restrictions were imposed - and unfortunately I fear that much the same fate will befall the wider network, if there isn't drastic change.
 

43066

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The railway is facing a crisis the likes of which it's never seen before. The fact that the government stepped in to keep things running during Covid masked this and has given many a false sense of security.

This seems very OTT. There is no existential crisis.

We saw how the Open Access operators withdrew their services as lockdowns and restrictions were imposed - and unfortunately I fear that much the same fate will befall the wider network, if there isn't drastic change.

On the basis that lockdowns and restrictions aren’t going to to be repeated (fingers crossed!), and demand is now rising again, it seems fairly clear that danger has now passed.
 

Craig1122

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There's a lot of truth in that article in terms of the attitude of the industry, but in truth much of that is because of micro management from the Dft.

However passenger numbers are back at 80% and rising. That's still way more people than when I joined the railway 20 odd years ago and no one was talking about decimating the network then. So I reckon there's a danger of over dramatising the risks.
 

yorksrob

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I've not seen much evidence of those empty trains around here - that's on IC, regional and local services. If the railway does make itself irrelevant, it's not for lack of customers who actually want to use it.

The industry needs to concentrate on bread and butter issues - being consistently competitive in price (rather than gimmicky offers that seem designed to catch people out), be relatively comfortable (less scrapping trains when you haven't got enough to replace them with) and turn up when people expect and need them (dependable services that can get you where you need to be and back (less of the strikes, timetable gaps and proper late evening and earlt morning services).

Get the basics right and people will come flooding back.
 

Watershed

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This seems very OTT. There is no existential crisis.
The RMT has balloted across the industry. Wholesale shutdowns are on the cards if signallers go on strike. There are unresolved pay claims at nearly every TOC, with various degrees of industrial action or unrest.

On the basis that lockdowns and restrictions aren’t going to to be repeated (fingers crossed!), and demand is now rising again, it seems fairly clear that danger has now passed.
The risk won't come from lockdowns or restrictions, but the government deciding it's had enough of an industry that is unable to substantively reduce costs to match its income. 80% of pre-Covid revenue is no good if costs are 105%.

Given that the railway has been subsidised to a greater or lesser extent for the past 70 years, taking umbrage to a particular level of subsidy isn't really logical. Nor does it make sense in the context of climate change, the Red Wall etc. - but it would be a mistake to assume that the government always acts logically, or in its own electoral interest. See the prevarication over a windfall tax.
 

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There's a lot of truth in that article in terms of the attitude of the industry, but in truth much of that is because of micro management from the Dft.

However passenger numbers are back at 80% and rising. That's still way more people than when I joined the railway 20 odd years ago and no one was talking about decimating the network then.
What was the cost base then? The average ticket price? How many seasons sold?

The whittling away of the season ticket base - the most valuable customers that it costs almost nothing to attract - is something that should seriously concern the railway.
 

GRALISTAIR

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Sorry but this is just scaremongering. Have you actually been on any U.K. trains recently (possibly not if you’re living in the US I suppose)?
Heck yes. Every time I come home rather than having my wife drive I mainly go from Manchester Airport to Preston. Did double duty last time (10 days ago) because I went to Terminal 2 at Manchester Airport to get a COVID test to get back into USA. May 6th via Wigan and WCML to Preston and then May 9th return trip same routing and then May 10th I went via Chorley. In fairness I would say the trains averaged about 70% full eyeballing it and guessing.
 
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yorksrob

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What was the cost base then? The average ticket price? How many seasons sold?

The whittling away of the season ticket base - the most valuable customers that it costs almost nothing to attract - is something that should seriously concern the railway.

If they choose not to come back, the railway must make itself inispensable to someone else instead. It's the most likely way to keep the wolves from the door.

If the writer of the article had spent some time at Leeds station today, he wouldn't have found an irrelevant railway. He would have found one struggling to meet expectations in some ways though.
 

GRALISTAIR

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Sorry but this is just scaremongering. Have you actually been on any U.K. trains recently (possibly not if you’re living in the US I suppose)?

I can categorically tell you the railway is *not* in terminal decline. Passenger numbers are recovering well and revenue is back up to around 80% of 2019 levels. It seems many on here have an agenda to ignore these facts and talk down the recovery.
For the record I really hope and pray you are right and I am totally wrong.
 

takno

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Not sure I agree with all their conclusions but I do think they have a point in general about the railways possible slide into irrelevance or at least being less relevant. See the huge cuts to ScotRail, including decimation of late night services and the lack of much reaction at all for a recent example. I also thought the author made a very good point about the passenger experience and how, the majority of the time, it doesn't match the advertising and how increasingly that's just seen to be the way it is. Where's the drive to win business (or retain it!) by providing a good experience that matches what the advertising claims?
A quick survey of the people at work in Edinburgh today reveals somebody who left his car at Croy and was randomly delayed for 2 hours, somebody who has mostly given up on coming in, and somebody else who is struggling to plan a gig in Glasgow next week because the "sustainable" timetable doesn't get you home after 2215. None of them have lost interest. They're a little bewildered about why nationalisation is being sold as a "good" thing, and furious and pensive about this assault on their normal lives, but they're absolutely not disinterested
 

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If they choose not to come back, the railway must make itself inispensable to someone else instead. It's the most likely way to keep the wolves from the door.
But discretionary travellers cost more to attract (in service improvements, advertising, and timetable tweaks) and pay less. It is a very, very difficult struggle.
 

Craig1122

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What was the cost base then? The average ticket price? How many seasons sold?

The whittling away of the season ticket base - the most valuable customers that it costs almost nothing to attract - is something that should seriously concern the railway.
I've seen conflicting information in as much as initially % revenue was lagging passengers but now seems to have caught up. Losing season revenue is a double edged edge sword as catering for peaks in demand is expensive. In addition if people who were buying seasons are now travelling say 2 days a week it doesn't always mean you lose 3/5 of revenue as day returns are often a fair bit more expensive.

There's no doubt patterns of travel are going to be permanently changed. My biggest concern is the ability of the Dft managed railway to respond to it, rather than the change required actually being impossible.

IMO some of that season revenue isn't coming back and there's not much the railway can do to change that. Which means the question is how to provide a product that's attractive to new users, this is where the article hits home as that's going to need change in all kinds of ways.

Interesting article in the latest Modern Railways on the cost base. In short certain things have risen, train leasing stands out (blame the Dft again!) as does infrastructure spending on things like weather resilience. Basically the answer has to be to find ways to get more paying customers on board because a railway is always going to be expensive to run and have high fixed costs.
 
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