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Rail strikes discussion

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KM1991

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IMO, All it would take at this stage is for the government to formally commit to immediate talks within the next few days and strike action would be postponed.
 

Watershed

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If I was a betting man... the strikes will be called off in what the media will call "an 11th hour" agreement
This is still my belief, but IMO it's cutting really fine now. That said I'm still relatively new to the industry so unsure if they've been called off this late in the past.
Even if they are called off now, it is too late to reinstate the normal timetable for tomorrow and Wednesday, and possibly also Thursday. Friday, Saturday and Sunday might still be salvageable.

However, a lot of people have already changed their plans and won't rearrange them again, so the lost revenue is already a "sunk cost" in many respects.

The real question will be what future strike dates the RMT announces next, and whether a deal will be reached before it's too late for those.
 

HuggyB87

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Even if they are called off now, it is too late to reinstate the normal timetable for tomorrow and Wednesday, and possibly also Thursday. Friday, Saturday and Sunday might still be salvageable.

However, a lot of people have already changed their plans and won't rearrange them again, so the lost revenue is already a "sunk cost" in many respects.

The real question will be what future strike dates the RMT announces next, and whether a deal will be reached before it's too late for those.

Out of curiosity, naivety and misunderstanding, why would this be the case?

Would TOCs not prepare for an either/or scenario?
 

duncanp

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Sounds like we are creeping towards that territory, but I think the gap is just too big to sort out within the next 12 hours or so

I think the first round of strikes will go ahead, but that talks will then take place with a view to averting future strikes.

My guess is that the final pay offer which is accepted by the union will be around 5%.

Whilst Mick Lynch says he is prepared to carry on calling strikes for months on end, he has to consider the amount of money his members will lose each time they go on strike, how that will affect them during the cost of living crisis, and whether there is a realistic prospect of an increased pay offer if there are more strikes.
 

westv

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If I was a betting man... the strikes will be called off in what the media will call "an 11th hour" agreement
Not just the media. Its a common term when something is done at the last minute.
Too late for me though as I cancelled my tickets and moved my hotel booking yesterday.
 

baz962

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I think the first round of strikes will go ahead, but that talks will then take place with a view to averting future strikes.

My guess is that the final pay offer which is accepted by the union will be around 5%.

Whilst Mick Lynch says he is prepared to carry on calling strikes for months on end, he has to consider the amount of money his members will lose each time they go on strike, how that will affect them during the cost of living crisis, and whether there is a realistic prospect of an increased pay offer if there are more strikes.
Considering this post , just raised a question. I have never in my life been balloted, let alone been on strike. Can you keep calling strikes on the same ballot until a resolution, or do you have to re ballot each time ( after each round ) I genuinely don't know the answer and it just occurred to me while reading this post as I wondered how the staff would officially end it if say they couldn't afford to strike anymore.
 

KM1991

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I think the first round of strikes will go ahead, but that talks will then take place with a view to averting future strikes.

My guess is that the final pay offer which is accepted by the union will be around 5%.

Whilst Mick Lynch says he is prepared to carry on calling strikes for months on end, he has to consider the amount of money his members will lose each time they go on strike, how that will affect them during the cost of living crisis, and whether there is a realistic prospect of an increased pay offer if there are more strikes.
I expect 5% is around the sort of figure that RMT leadership will put out to a yes/no vote. Any changes to working week hours or the inclusion of Sunday in the working week chucks that all out of the window though.

Considering this post , just raised a question. I have never in my life been balloted, let alone been on strike. Can you keep calling strikes on the same ballot until a resolution, or do you have to re ballot each time ( after each round ) I genuinely don't know the answer and it just occurred to me while reading this post as I wondered how the staff would officially end it if say they couldn't afford to strike anymore.
It’s a six month window, so ballot results for this dispute enable industrial action at 2 weeks notice until around January?
 

Smidster

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If I was a betting man... the strikes will be called off in what the media will call "an 11th hour" agreement

Genuine question - what gives you that impression?

I would be amazed if there is any movement in the foreseeable future...other than probably 40-50 strike days over the rest of the year.
 

Darandio

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Genuine question - what gives you that impression?

I would be amazed if there is any movement in the foreseeable future...other than probably 40-50 strike days over the rest of the year.

The question there is can the members and the union afford 40-50 strike days in a period of six months? I doubt they can.
 

Watershed

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Out of curiosity, naivety and misunderstanding, why would this be the case?

Would TOCs not prepare for an either/or scenario?
They can prepare for either scenario but there's a lot of stuff that happens behind the scenes to make either timetable happen. And there is simply not the capacity to undo a strike plan at the drop of a hat.

Another factor worth considering is that drivers' and conductors' diagrams need to be posted at least 48 hours in advance in most cases, and after that time changes can usually only be made by mutual agreement (fat chance!) or in the event of unplanned disruption (e.g. trespass, bad weather).

Considering this post , just raised a question. I have never in my life been balloted, let alone been on strike. Can you keep calling strikes on the same ballot until a resolution, or do you have to re ballot each time ( after each round ) I genuinely don't know the answer and it just occurred to me while reading this post as I wondered how the staff would officially end it if say they couldn't afford to strike anymore.
Once a ballot reaches the required margins, it gives a mandate for 6 months. So that could involve any combination of strikes and action short of a strike for 6 months, in theory.

But you raise a good point as to what might happen if the union leadership hold out for a better deal after, say, a second round of strikes - or reject a proposal out of hand, rather than putting it to the members.
 

Starmill

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This is still my belief, but IMO it's cutting really fine now. That said I'm still relatively new to the industry so unsure if they've been called off this late in the past.
It's not entirely unknown for a breakthrough to happen the day before! But for all practical purposes it's too late for tomorrow's timetable now.
 

baz962

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They can prepare for either scenario but there's a lot of stuff that happens behind the scenes to make either timetable happen. And there is simply not the capacity to undo a strike plan at the drop of a hat.

Another factor worth considering is that drivers' and conductors' diagrams need to be posted at least 48 hours in advance in most cases, and after that time changes can usually only be made by mutual agreement (fat chance!) or in the event of unplanned disruption (e.g. trespass, bad weather).


Once a ballot reaches the required margins, it gives a mandate for 6 months. So that could involve any combination of strikes and action short of a strike for 6 months, in theory.

But you raise a good point as to what might happen if the union leadership hold out for a better deal after, say, a second round of strikes - or reject a proposal out of hand, rather than putting it to the members.
Thanks for the reply and Murphy's law dictated that as you and others were replying I was looking at a news app and read it there . But also to add I read that network rail are considering paying cash bonuses to signallers to cross the picket line.
 

Gems

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Do I set my alarm for 4am or not. A tough question. The closer we get and the more lies the government come out with the more I swing towards a long lie in.

Some of the posts on here have pushed me closer to striking. Some views have convinced me it's a war out there.
 
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AlterEgo

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IMO, All it would take at this stage is for the government to formally commit to immediate talks within the next few days and strike action would be postponed.
Why? The government aren’t going to offer anything. It’ll be down to politics to sort this one out.

People on this thread who think public perception is irrelevant in a strike situation where you’re stopping critical national infrastructure from moving are kidding themselves.

No, this one is the government running the line of “no public sector pay increases” and they will continue to trot out lines about how the railways furloughed very few people, got billions during covid, etc etc.

Optics are everything.
 

Smidster

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The question there is can the members and the union afford 40-50 strike days in a period of six months? I doubt they can.

Fair enough that 40 is probably exaggerating but if you were to ask which is more likely 5 days of strikes per month for the rest of the year or a deal this week my money would be on the former.

Hopefully I am wrong but these disputes do tend to drag on - I remember year without a Saturday service on Northern.
 

ComUtoR

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Another factor worth considering is that drivers' and conductors' diagrams need to be posted at least 48 hours in advance in most cases, and after that time changes can usually only be made by mutual agreement (fat chance!)

All our diagrams have been posted as if the strike isn't going to happen. All of us are expected to book on for duty as normal, even if the strike goes ahead.

There is no need for any mutual agreement as on the day changes are already built into our terms and conditions. It's always been that way.
 

Newone2022

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I think the first round of strikes will go ahead, but that talks will then take place with a view to averting future strikes.

My guess is that the final pay offer which is accepted by the union will be around 5%.

Whilst Mick Lynch says he is prepared to carry on calling strikes for months on end, he has to consider the amount of money his members will lose each time they go on strike, how that will affect them during the cost of living crisis, and whether there is a realistic prospect of an increased pay offer if there are more strikes.
If your guess is correct, and don’t find it very out of line, the RMT knows by now that they won’t get more than a 2% or 3% of what they called an insulting offer.
Not long for the cost of pay losses to get very close to any benefits of such an improved deal, more so if we take inflation into account (the later you get the money, the less it is worth).
Also raises the question that if a better deal for everyone could not be achieved with a bit more cool head from both sides.
Will love to see how they all sell something of the sort.
 

Watershed

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All our diagrams have been posted as if the strike isn't going to happen. All of us are expected to book on for duty as normal, even if the strike goes ahead.

There is no need for any mutual agreement as on the day changes are already built into our terms and conditions. It's always been that way.
Depends on your T&C's and the way your TOC is handling it then. Obviously being down in DOO land, a lack of conductors isn't nearly as much of an issue for you guys.
 

ComUtoR

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If your guess is correct, and don’t find it very out of line, the RMT knows by now that they won’t get more than a 2% or 3% of what they called an insulting offer.

Offers made, that centre around stopping a strike, are pretty stupid on both sides.

Nobody wants a pay only offer. There is a desire from the government to increase productivity and bring in new ways of working. How does that happen if your just going to get offered 2% and asked to stop the strike.

It's totally worthless for everyone.
 

Greenheart

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Civil servants should lose the London Allowance if they aren't travelling into London daily its basically a salary increase that rail workers can't access
Easier said than done as in a lot of cases, London weighting is not a separate allowance but part of basic salary. Also, increasingly civil service offices can only accommodate about two thirds of their staff at any one time, so people have to work from home a couple of days a week.
 

ComUtoR

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Depends on your T&C's and the way your TOC is handling it then. Obviously being down in DOO land, a lack of conductors isn't nearly as much of an issue for you guys.

I'm pretty sure that 90% of the TOCs work the same way. Once you book on, if anything gets cancelled, you can get asked to run other services. If everyone was only doing what they diagram said, nothing would get done when things go wrong. During storms, incidents, engineering works.. from the moment I book on, to the moment I book off. The company owns me. I do what I'm told, drive what they tell me. Jobs get cancelled all the time. Some days you get lucky, other times your the sucker out ghosting all night.

Don't forget those pesky signallers. DOO is nothing without those pretty lights.
 

GB

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If the strike is called of last minute you may get passenger services running, but the freight table and crewing are already set in.
 

Watershed

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Offers made, that centre around stopping a strike, are pretty stupid on both sides.

Nobody wants a pay only offer. There is a desire from the government to increase productivity and bring in new ways of working. How does that happen if your just going to get offered 2% and asked to stop the strike.

It's totally worthless for everyone.
I wouldn't be surprised if all the talk of increasing productivity was (at least on the TOC side), a distraction technique. On the NR side it's clear they're after their pound of flesh and so I imagine the best possible outcome in that respect would be agreeing that there will be no compulsory redundancies.

I'm pretty sure that 90% of the TOCs work the same way. Once you book on, if anything gets cancelled, you can get asked to run other services. If everyone was only doing what they diagram said, nothing would get done when things go wrong. During storms, incidents, engineering works.. from the moment I book on, to the moment I book off. The company owns me. I do what I'm told, drive what they tell me. Jobs get cancelled all the time. Some days you get lucky, other times your the sucker out ghosting all night.

Don't forget those pesky signallers. DOO is nothing without those pretty lights.
Yes but all that is unplanned disruption. Planned disruption such as a strike is often different. As I say, it depends on your T&Cs though.
 

High Dyke

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If the strike is called of last minute you may get passenger services running, but the freight table and crewing are already set in.
Not in all cases. For example there is no service on the Cleethorpes - Barton line all week, even though the industrial action only covers the three days. The excuse being given by the TOC is that they can't exchange the unit for the service on its booked day(s). That's just poor. Why not swap the unit on the days services are going to be operated? Too easy!
 

Towers

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If the strike is called of last minute you may get passenger services running, but the freight table and crewing are already set in.
It won't be called off. Having got this close to it, the RMT leadership won't be wanting to miss out on the headline of having arranged a 'national' strike. This is their once in a generation moment of glory, it'll most certainly go ahead!

However, we can at least hope for an intervention before the next round.
 

Horizon22

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Hidden rules are arguably 30yrs out of date. 12hr shifts especially, but 12hrs day after day just shouldn't be allowed.

So - as I mentioned before - will you be having words with the NHS and all the other industries who routinely do 12hr shifts? Why do you think Hidden is outdated? Do you have any empirical evidence to prove this?

Personally I prefer 8hr weekdays and 12h weekends, but some rail staff swear by 12h days. You can’t force people to work just how you want to.
 

Islineclear3_1

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I can name 2 that I have personally worked in and know of many more that have a uniform policy that states that due to a lack of suitable changing area it is acceptable for clinical staff to wear their uniform too and from work
I will ask a second time, which hospitals have this policy?

So what's your point?
My point was that you asked a question about what if your hospital does not have sufficient facilities to change which I was surprised about as I was not aware of any hospital without these facilities

So please tell which hospitals don't have changing facilities?
 

KM1991

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It won't be called off. Having got this close to it, the RMT leadership won't be wanting to miss out on the headline of having arranged a 'national' strike. This is their once in a generation moment of glory, it'll most certainly go ahead!

However, we can at least hope for an intervention before the next round.
Nah. Government want this more than anything, classic divide and conquer. And legacy media lap up that narrative too.
 
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