Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[yorksrob]

I am not saying all rail lines would close. But I am saying we cannot expect the state to prop up rail routes that require too much subsidy. So a lot of the services into London are commuter services - I would hope they are not financial basket cases.

Actually, a lot of them are - if you count requiring too much subsidy to be a basket case.

How much is too much subsidy ? Do you decide this on a line by line basis ?

My argument is that for a network of its size and usefulness, there isn't too much subsidy (although it could be better spent on the railway).

Perhaps the money saved could be used to upgrade any roads that become unacceptably congested?

It depends how much of our green and pleasant land you want to cover in tar mac doesn't it.

 

[Dai Corner]

It depends how much of our green and pleasant land you want to cover in tar mac doesn't it.

In the case of Salisbury-Exeter as mentioned above, for example, the amount of redundant railway land returned to nature may well exceed that used to improve the parallel roads.

 

[geoffk]

Nothing in that report alters the reality of my statement above. Unfortunately simplistic bleating about rich people and inequality from Oxfam (who aren’t known for their tax expertise) doesn’t change the reality that you can’t just “tax tax havens”.

Funds being “out of reach of tax authorities” doesn’t necessarily mean anything untoward has happened. Do you have an ISA? If so you’re just another evil avoider of tax as far as Oxfam are concerned. Something to consider

I used to have an ISA and understand the point you're making, but I'm talking about aggressive tax avoidance. While it's not illegal to have an offshore bank account, it is illegal to hide assets in these accounts in order to evade tax obligations.

 

[yorksrob]

I being deliberately awkward here I know, but it is to show that the railway is expensive - especially when compared to alternatives that in many cases are better for passengers and society - and in the current climate there are going to be some very difficult choices to make.

I’ll be honest - I’m bloody scared about the future of the industry. Seriously, properly, losing sleep every night this week scared.

Passenger numbers are around 80 - 90% what they were prior to the pandemic. Given that two years ago, people were contemplating some sort of horrific "new normal" where everyone lived like a hermit for evermore, that's a pretty good recovery and shows that the railways can continue to be of great value for society. It's worth considering that that 80 - 90% is itself quite a large number by historical standards. There's also nothing to say that it won't increase over time - not as recovery but as general growth. It's only this countries pathetic obsession with everything being over-commercialised. If we could beat that fixation, we'd all be better off.

What does worry me about the industry is the constant turmoil it seems to be in all the time, although government is also to blame for this.

 

[LowLevel]

https://twitter.com/railandroad/status/1578054188440993792?t=k-JwGbW1MjR38VzYPwFphw&s=19

Latest ORR passenger number stats have been released for the quarter to June 2022. LNER running at 106.4% of pre-pandemic, EMR at 98.4%. South East operators lagging well behind and ScotRail firmly planted at the bottom.

 

[Bletchleyite]

https://twitter.com/railandroad/status/1578054188440993792?t=k-JwGbW1MjR38VzYPwFphw&s=19

Latest ORR passenger number stats have been released for the quarter to June 2022. LNER running at 106.4% of pre-pandemic, EMR at 98.4%. South East operators lagging well behind and ScotRail firmly planted at the bottom.

I wonder why ScotRail is at the bottom? Slower recovery due to stricter COVID policies? But then Wales did too and that's in the middle.

 

[Dr Day]

But then Wales did too and that's in the middle.

TfW don't just serve Wales - a good chunk of their revenue is serving Manchester, Birmingham and smaller English cities like Chester, Gloucester and Hereford.

 

[Bald Rick]

https://twitter.com/railandroad/status/1578054188440993792?t=k-JwGbW1MjR38VzYPwFphw&s=19

Latest ORR passenger number stats have been released for the quarter to June 2022. LNER running at 106.4% of pre-pandemic, EMR at 98.4%. South East operators lagging well behind and ScotRail firmly planted at the bottom.

It would be interesting to see the revenue numbers, both % and absolute.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It would be interesting to see the revenue numbers, both % and absolute.

Yes. Revenue does seem to have been lagging behind so interested to see the latest figures. Revenue is where my worry is - less profitable passengers going forwards. That is OK if it means we can drop the peak extras that sat around idle for most of the day - assuming they were a waste of money there ?. But also might allow for a more resilient timetable - which might attract more.

 

[Starmill]

I wonder why ScotRail is at the bottom? Slower recovery due to stricter COVID policies? But then Wales did too and that's in the middle.

The May 2022 timetable cut services significantly. It then itself was further cut after a week. Also long-term loss of foreign tourists.

 

[Bald Rick]

That is OK if it means we can drop the peak extras that sat around idle for most of the day - assuming they were a waste of money there ?. But also might allow for a more resilient timetable - which might attract more.

The big revenue drop is in premium passenegrs - medium / long distance commuters and business travel. The marginal revenue cost for these was very, very good up to the point you needed to buy more infrastructure.

 

[paul1609]

Coaches and buses are awful in every situation and are only used by those who have no choice. Railway passengers will remain a prime concern in terms of economic growth and voting intentions.

Thats not really true. Id much rather use a non stop overnight Megabus from London to Glasgow than the dazzling bright seated sleeper that stops at every lamp post or waste half a day on a day train. Theres lots of instances where the coach is more practical and to be honest somecases where they are now more comfortable.

 

[dk1]

Thats not really true. Id much rather use a non stop overnight Megabus from London to Glasgow than the dazzling bright seated sleeper that stops at every lamp post or waste half a day on a day train. Theres lots of instances where the coach is more practical and to be honest somecases where they are now more comfortable.

Would have to be a Sleeper berth or nothing for me. Never have understood overnight seating as it sounds so grim.

 

[ar10642]

Assuming they're full. Would they notice an extra bus every five minutes? They might even welcome such a frequent service and leave their cars at home.

Buses are awful to travel on though. I'll use over a train over a car, because it's fast quiet and efficient, but not a bus rattling and smashing it's way round the houses at 25mph.

 

[yorksrob]

Thats not really true. Id much rather use a non stop overnight Megabus from London to Glasgow than the dazzling bright seated sleeper that stops at every lamp post or waste half a day on a day train. Theres lots of instances where the coach is more practical and to be honest somecases where they are now more comfortable.

The lighting point is a pertinent one. Trains could do with more subdued lighting at night time.

 

[Dai Corner]

Buses are awful to travel on though. I'll use over a train over a car, because it's fast quiet and efficient, but not a bus rattling and smashing it's way round the houses at 25mph.

There would be scope for both buses serving every stop and going straight down the A303 and A30 stopping only at the main towns.

 

[ar10642]

There would be scope for both buses serving every stop and going straight down the A303 and A30 stopping only at the main towns.

You'd just drive though if you're going to get stuck in all the traffic anyway.

 

[Dai Corner]

You'd just drive though if you're going to get stuck in all the traffic anyway.

If you had a car.

But to return to the theme, why should the taxpayer subsidise a second transport infrastructure between Salisbury and Exeter? Wouldn't the money be better spent improving the A303 and alleviating the traffic? Honiton-Exeter is already a high-quality dual carriageway.

 

[ar10642]

If you had a car.

But to return to the theme, why should the taxpayer subsidise a second transport infrastructure between Salisbury and Exeter? Wouldn't the money be better spent improving the A303 and alleviating the traffic? Honiton-Exeter is already a high-quality dual carriageway.

If you want to go down that road, why should the taxpayer subsidise the first transport infrastructure? Why should the taxpayer subsidise anything at all?

Also, building bigger roads doesn't actually alleviate traffic, it just creates more of it.

 

[paul1609]

If you had a car.

But to return to the theme, why should the taxpayer subsidise a second transport infrastructure between Salisbury and Exeter? Wouldn't the money be better spent improving the A303 and alleviating the traffic? Honiton-Exeter is already a high-quality dual carriageway.

Honiton to Exeter as well as the A30 London traffic also carries all the A35 south coast traffic so would have been a higher priority.
The A303 trunk traffic mostly turns off at Illminster to cut accross to the M 5 and has done for many years so really the a303 improvement need to be on the M3 to M5 at Taunton now.

 

[Dai Corner]

If you want to go down that road, why should the taxpayer subsidise the first transport infrastructure? Why should the taxpayer subsidise anything at all?

Also, building bigger roads doesn't actually alleviate traffic, it just creates more of it.

One infrastructure is necessary, a second one isn't in many cases.

Which roads do you think should be closed or narrowed to reduce traffic?

 

[Starmill]

Honiton to Exeter as well as the A30 London traffic also carries all the A35 south coast traffic so would have been a higher priority.
The A303 trunk traffic mostly turns off at Illminster to cut accross to the M 5 and has done for many years so really the a303 improvement need to be on the M3 to M5 at Taunton now.

The upgrade of the Blackbrook Roundabout at M25 J25 has if anything made this worse though hasn't it.

 

[Dai Corner]

Honiton to Exeter as well as the A30 London traffic also carries all the A35 south coast traffic so would have been a higher priority.
The A303 trunk traffic mostly turns off at Illminster to cut accross to the M 5 and has done for many years so really the a303 improvement need to be on the M3 to M5 at Taunton now.

I think they're planning to upgrade the A358 Ilminster to Taunton. The project has been on and off for years.

But what about the local Salisbury-Exeter traffic?

 

[Peter Sarf]

The big revenue drop is in premium passenegrs - medium / long distance commuters and business travel. The marginal revenue cost for these was very, very good up to the point you needed to buy more infrastructure.

I see. So commuting within London zones 1-6 I assume is shorter than medium distance ?. And I recall reading that London commuting is (was pre Covid) dwarfed by the ridership on Londons busses anyway.

So are you saying commuting from outside the M25 (and further) to London is hit ?.

Thats not really true. Id much rather use a non stop overnight Megabus from London to Glasgow than the dazzling bright seated sleeper that stops at every lamp post or waste half a day on a day train. Theres lots of instances where the coach is more practical and to be honest somecases where they are now more comfortable.

A coach is a lot cheaper than rail day or night. Except when LNWR do a good deal to Crewe. A coach is not quite as nice as intercity but really not worth the extra. Especially if you end up on a rail replacement bus having paid a rail fare. The coach is quicker than the train if you end up on a bus going round the houses !. Maybe the train fare should be reduced when engineering work (etc) takes effect.

Would have to be a Sleeper berth or nothing for me. Never have understood overnight seating as it sounds so grim.

I suppose it was years sleeping on commuter trains then discovering I could sleep solidly for nine hours on a plane that led me to consider coaches. Not possible for everyone I agree. But then even the day coaches I use are nicer than a plane and nicer/comparable to non-intercity trains BUT cheaper.

Buses are awful to travel on though. I'll use over a train over a car, because it's fast quiet and efficient, but not a bus rattling and smashing it's way round the houses at 25mph.

See below.

There would be scope for both buses serving every stop and going straight down the A303 and A30 stopping only at the main towns.

Yes, see below.

If you had a car.

But to return to the theme, why should the taxpayer subsidise a second transport infrastructure between Salisbury and Exeter? Wouldn't the money be better spent improving the A303 and alleviating the traffic? Honiton-Exeter is already a high-quality dual carriageway.

Perhaps a coach doing a single stop in each town centre * then busses feeding (integrated transport I know !).

* = In some cases the railway station may well be nowhere near the town centre.

 

[ar10642]

Perhaps a coach doing a single stop in each town centre * then busses feeding (integrated transport I know !).

* = In some cases the railway station may well be nowhere near the town centre.

I wouldn't use that, sounds terrible. I doubt you would either.

Remember that the vast majority have access to a car.

One infrastructure is necessary, a second one isn't in many cases.

Well that's a matter of opinion isn't it?

Which roads do you think should be closed or narrowed to reduce traffic?

Strawman.

 

[Starmill]

Well that's a matter of opinion isn't it?

Not really. Loads of resources are consumed by having to run longer trains between Salisbury and Exeter for the benefit of people using cheaper tickets with the Network Railcard, which is often around half the price of using GWR between London and Exeter. A Super Off Peak Return from London to Exeter for use on GWR is £99.10. On SWR with Network Railcard is £47.50 - recently reduced further by the introduction of the cheaper period return.

The sensible thing to do would be to make GWR's service cheaper so that it loads better, but that's very unlikely. Better still abolish the Network Railcard and introduce a new one valid on all national rail services. Even less likely.

 

[Dai Corner]

I wouldn't use that, sounds terrible. I doubt you would either.

Remember that the vast majority have access to a car.

It's exactly what the trains do.

Well that's a matter of opinion isn't it?

I'd argue that the majority opinion (those that have access to a car) is that there is no need for two infrastructures in most of the country except within and between major urban areas.

 

[Bald Rick]

So are you saying commuting from outside the M25 (and further) to London is hit ?.

Yes, it’s down significantly. Commuting wholly within London is not far off back to 2019 levels. All other commuting, on average, has roughly halved.

 

[ar10642]

Not really. Loads of resources are consumed by having to run longer trains between Salisbury and Exeter for the benefit of people using cheaper tickets with the Network Railcard, which is often around half the price of using GWR between London and Exeter.

The sensible thing to do would be to make GWR's service cheaper so that it loads better, but that's very unlikely.

Isn't the argument here that we should close that and unspecified other lines so that people can go on coaches because taxpayers? Because on the whole they won't, they'll just drive instead.

It's exactly what the trains do.

The train is fast and comfortable, coaches are slow get stuck in traffic and make you feel sick if you try to read on them. You'd just take the car if you have one, which most people do.

I'd argue that the majority opinion (those that have access to a car) is that there is no need for two infrastructures in most of the country except within and between major urban areas.

The majority opinion would bring back the death penalty, doesn't mean we should do it.

 

[Dai Corner]

The majority opinion would bring back the death penalty, doesn't mean we should do it.

Straw man?