Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[ar10642]

Straw man?

No.

 

[Dai Corner]

The train is fast and comfortable, coaches are slow get stuck in traffic and make you feel sick if you try to read on them. You'd just take the car if you have one, which most people do.

Just as they do now, instead of using trains, bar within and between large urban areas.

 

[ar10642]

Just as they do now, instead of using trains, bar within and between large urban areas.

So we have lots of empty trains? People are just clamouring for rail replacement buses to save the taxpayer money? No difference right?

 

[Starmill]

No.

A minute using Google showed that 50% of people in a representative YouGov sample earlier this year were "Opposed" or "Strongly Opposed" to the use of the death penalty, with 10% in the "don't know" category. So overall fairly convincing evidence this isn't a majority opinion.

Britons don’t tend to support the death penalty… until you name the worst crimes | YouGov

Britons don’t tend to support the death penalty… until you name the worst crimes.

yougov.co.uk

 

[yorksrob]

Not really. Loads of resources are consumed by having to run longer trains between Salisbury and Exeter for the benefit of people using cheaper tickets with the Network Railcard, which is often around half the price of using GWR between London and Exeter. A Super Off Peak Return from London to Exeter for use on GWR is £99.10. On SWR with Network Railcard is £47.50 - recently reduced further by the introduction of the cheaper period return.

The sensible thing to do would be to make GWR's service cheaper so that it loads better, but that's very unlikely. Better still abolish the Network Railcard and introduce a new one valid on all national rail services. Even less likely.

I like the idea of the National railcard, but there seem to be a lot of people getting on or off at Salisbury for the trip westward whenever I use it.

Plus I remember getting trains from Paddington to the West country which were ram packed. Whilst I'm not against cheaper fares on the main line (or generally) that 's not going to go away. Infact, it will likely make the Southern route even more important as a relief route !

 

[Dai Corner]

So we have lots of empty trains? People are just clamouring for rail replacement buses to save the taxpayer money? No difference right?

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

 

[yorksrob]

It's exactly what the trains do.

I'd argue that the majority opinion (those that have access to a car) is that there is no need for two infrastructures in most of the country except within and between major urban areas.

That's nonsense for a start, I know plenty of people with cars who sometimes use the "second infrastructure) at times for various reasons.

The idea that just because someone runs a car, they automatically have/see no use for the railway is simply laughable.

 

[Trainbike46]

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

That statistic ignores that rail journeys are on avarage much longer than journeys on other modes of transport.

the mode share of rail in passenger kms is about 10%

The capacity in other modes to take up that share does not exist.

In any case, why are you arguing for the complete abolition of rail in an update thread on passenger numbers? It seems like that argument should be made in a speculative thread.

 

[yorksrob]

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

A meaningless statistic. A greater proportion of middle and longer distance journeys will be by train.

 

[JonathanH]

Better still abolish the Network Railcard

Probably. I know I am misquoting but it would be interesting to know whether the reduction in people travelling would be offset by those who would be forced into paying the higher fare, and potentially more targeted special offers so that people get discounts when there is spare capacity rather than year round.

For example, why does the railway offer cheap fares to Brighton in the summer, which can be further reduced by the Network Railcard, when there is scope for much higher fares because the demand is there. They could be reduced in the winter when there is spare capacity.

Commuting wholly within London is not far off back to 2019 levels. All other commuting, on average, has roughly halved.

Are there any serious conversations about whether capacity for commuting wholly within London might be increased with a significant drop / slow down in longer distance NSE-area services to London?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I wouldn't use that, sounds terrible. I doubt you would either.

Remember that the vast majority have access to a car.

..................................

So they will not being interested in the train anyway.

Yes, it’s down significantly. Commuting wholly within London is not far off back to 2019 levels. All other commuting, on average, has roughly halved.

Ouch. So commuting to London from outside the M25 is still drastically low after 2.5 years. Has it shown any/much sign of recovery ?.

Isn't the argument here that we should close that and unspecified other lines so that people can go on coaches because taxpayers? Because on the whole they won't, they'll just drive instead.



The train is fast and comfortable, coaches are slow get stuck in traffic and make you feel sick if you try to read on them. You'd just take the car if you have one, which most people do.



The majority opinion would bring back the death penalty, doesn't mean we should do it.

I think what you are missing is that, if someone travels by train currently then they are more likely to switch to coach. If someone already has a car then they are unlikely to be using a train in the first place. Now in a brave new world we should be attracting these people out of their cars onto trains - but we have not managed to.

In these financially straightened times it is getting too late to do anything to tempt these tax paying car owners.

I suggest that regrettably, for most of the UK population (tax payers), the train vs coach argument for intercity leisure journeys is something they have no interest in.

I do not find the coach journey from London to Cardiff unpleasant. I always have a facing seat, pay a lot less. I really do not mind the journey taking longer. As for reliability I can criticise both rail and coach - but I have paid less for the coach journey.

In these straightened times more might look at the death penalty. It costs over £45,000 to keep someone in prison for a year.

 

[ar10642]

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

That's absolutely not true. People will avoid using the railway at all if there are rail replacements, and believe me you *definitely* notice. Do you actually use the railway or buses?

 

[yorksrob]

So they will not being interested in the train anyway.

Ouch. So commuting to London from outside the M25 is still drastically low after 2.5 years. Has it shown any/much sign of recovery ?.

I think what you are missing is that, if someone travels by train currently then they are more likely to switch to coach. If someone already has a car then they are unlikely to be using a train in the first place. Now in a brave new world we should be attracting these people out of their cars onto trains - but we have not managed to.

In these financially straightened times it is getting too late to do anything to tempt these tax paying car owners.

I suggest that regrettably, for most of the UK population (tax payers), the train vs coach argument for intercity leisure journeys is something they have no interest in.

I do not find the coach journey from London to Cardiff unpleasant. I always have a facing seat, pay a lot less. I really do not mind the journey taking longer. As for reliability I can criticise both rail and coach - but I have paid less for the coach journey.

In these straightened times more might look at the death penalty. It costs over £45,000 to keep someone in prison for a year.

I think you're underestimating the fact that many car users also use the train in some circumstances.

 

[Dai Corner]

That's nonsense for a start, I know plenty of people with cars who sometimes use the "second infrastructure) at times for various reasons.

The idea that just because someone runs a car, they automatically have/see no use for the railway is simply laughable.

They don't need to though. And probably wouldn't if they had to pay the full cost.

That statistic ignores that rail journeys are on avarage much longer than journeys on other modes of transport.

the mode share of rail in passenger kms is about 10%

The capacity in other modes to take up that share does not exist.

In any case, why are you arguing for the complete abolition of rail in an update thread on passenger numbers? It seems like that argument should be made in a speculative thread.

A meaningless statistic. A greater proportion of middle and longer distance journeys will be by train.

Fair comment, but what would the figures be if you took out the intra- and inter-city journeys?

 

[Trainbike46]

So they will not being interested in the train anyway.

People who own/have access to cars take trains you know

In these straightened times more might look at the death penalty. It costs over £45,000 to keep someone in prison for a year.

I know this is fully off-topic, but you may be interested to know that in the US a single death penalty is more expensive than locking the relevant people in prison for life.

That is completely ignoring the fact you seem to be arguing for murdering people to save money, something I will point out is morally wrong.

 

[Dai Corner]

That's absolutely not true. People will avoid using the railway at all if there are rail replacements, and believe me you *definitely* notice. Do you actually use the railway or buses?

Yes I use the bus most days (because it's free and I can have a drink without worrying). The railway station is a drive away so I tend to drive. I do take the train for pleasure sometimes.

 

[yorksrob]

They don't need to though. And probably wouldn't if they had to pay the full cost.



Fair comment, but what would the figures be if you took out the intra- and inter-city journeys?

The fact is they have reason to use the train, so they probably wouldn't support fare hikes as a policy.

I don't think there's any relevance to stripping out inter and intra-city journeys. The network is useful to people because it is a network.

 

[ar10642]

Yes I use the bus most days (because it's free and I can have a drink without worrying). The railway station is a drive away so I tend to drive. I do take the train for pleasure sometimes.

So aren't you one of the people you're denying exists?

 

[Bald Rick]

Are there any serious conversations about whether capacity for commuting wholly within London might be increased with a significant drop / slow down in longer distance NSE-area services to London?

I doubt it. Not least because commuting within London needs net subsidy. And, of course, it’s already happening - there has been a significant increase in ‘in London’ heavy rail capacity in the last 3-4 years, with more to come: 710s, 717s, 720s on the West Anglia, the 701s (hopefully!); and of course Crossrail alone has increased London rail capacity by 10%.

Ouch. So commuting to London from outside the M25 is still drastically low after 2.5 years. Has it shown any/much sign of recovery ?.

not in the last 6 months.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I think you're underestimating the fact that many car users also use the train in some circumstances.

As I do BUT I also use the coach.

People who own/have access to cars take trains you know

I know this is fully off-topic, but you may be interested to know that in the US a single death penalty is more expensive than locking the relevant people in prison for life.

That is completely ignoring the fact you seem to be arguing for murdering people to save money, something I will point out is morally wrong.

I know car owners do use trin. Especially for the commute into central London where their car is useless. I also have a car but I also use Bus, Train and Coach.

As for the death penalty my reply was to what some one else brought up. I wanted to use that to draw a parallel to reinforce the fact that the UK has less cash for niceties.

Yes I use the bus most days (because it's free and I can have a drink without worrying). The railway station is a drive away so I tend to drive. I do take the train for pleasure sometimes.

Yes, similar here. For me its the bus to the station for a train to central London, sometimes bus all the way. I also use bus and tram for journeys around South London. For longer distance I use the train very sparingly preferring the simplicity and cheapness of the coach. I prefer a LNWR 350 over a Pendolino so the cheapness is a bonus. My car is used only for essentials as I choose to reduce my effect on the environment. If i could not use the coach i would drive.

So aren't you one of the people you're denying exists?

What exists are many car owners who would never consider public transport of any kind, especially for intercity type journeys. That does not mean that all car owners never use public transport.

I doubt it. Not least because commuting within London needs net subsidy. Besides there has been a significant increase in ‘in London’ heavy rail calacrity in the last 3-4 years, with more to come: 710s, 717s, the 701s (hopefully!) and of course Crossrail alone has increased London rail capacity by 10%.




not in the last 6 months.

Oh dear, so recovery in the longer distance commuting sector has hit the buffers. Umm, time to think I suppose/fear !.

Looks like those spare 350s and 379s are looking very unneeded !.

 

[yorksrob]

As I do BUT I also use the coach.

I know car owners do use trin. Especially for the commute into central London where their car is useless. I also have a car but I also use Bus, Train and Coach.

As for the death penalty my reply was to what some one else brought up. I wanted to use that to draw a parallel to reinforce the fact that the UK has less cash for niceties.

Yes, similar here. For me its the bus to the station for a train to central London, sometimes bus all the way. I also use bus and tram for journeys around South London. For longer distance I use the train very sparingly preferring the simplicity and cheapness of the coach. I prefer a LNWR 350 over a Pendolino so the cheapness is a bonus. My car is used only for essentials as I choose to reduce my effect on the environment. If i could not use the coach i would drive.


What exists are many car owners who would never consider public transport of any kind, especially for intercity type journeys. That does not mean that all car owners never use public transport.

Oh dear, so recovery in the longer distance commuting sector has hit the buffers. Umm, time to think I suppose/fear !.

Looks like those spare 350s and 379s are looking very unneeded !.

On the contrary, if those 350's and 379's are surpluss, we should be electrifying some regional routes which have bounced back and use them there.

 

[Peter Sarf]

On the contrary, if those 350's and 379's are surpluss, we should be electrifying some regional routes which have bounced back and use them there.

Just need to find the money to do it. I do think all these surplus EMUs are a waste if electrification can be justified (fingers crossed).

 

[Magdalia]

If someone already has a car then they are unlikely to be using a train in the first place.

If that were the case, then there would be no need for station car parks.

 

[Horizon22]

Oh dear, so recovery in the longer distance commuting sector has hit the buffers. Umm, time to think I suppose/fear !.

Looks like those spare 350s and 379s are looking very unneeded !.

The very broad demographic of those sort of commuters across the home counties are a) relatively wealthy, b) in service industries, c) have stable families, d) have well-sized homes, e) used to have season tickets for £000s / year, f) had a commute of over 1 hour, twice a day. In that regard, working from home permanently (or with very limited office requirements) is something of a no-brainer for these individuals and groups, especially if its proven to have worked for over 2 years.

I sincerely doubt that sort of white-collar, captive demand is ever going to come back in the same way (except through natural population growth). And this is a major problem for railway revenue because it was consistent, reliable and of a considerable sum.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The very broad demographic of those sort of commuters across the home counties are a) relatively wealthy, b) in service industries, c) have stable families, d) have well-sized homes, e) used to have season tickets for £000s / year, f) had a commute of over 1 hour, twice a day. In that regard, working from home permanently (or with very limited office requirements) is something of a no-brainer for these individuals and groups, especially if its proven to have worked for over 2 years.

I sincerely doubt that sort of white-collar, captive demand is ever going to come back in the same way (except through natural population growth). And this is a major problem for railway revenue because it was consistent, reliable and of a considerable sum.

Yes. As I have said before. A lot of home workers have seen the light.

I presume b) is NOT in service industries ?.

 

[Bald Rick]

I presume b) is NOT in service industries ?.

It definitely is service industries; they sure as hell don’t work in manufacturing!

 

[Peter Sarf]

It definitely is service industries; they sure as hell don’t work in manufacturing!

Oh. I was thinking service industry was McDonalds and suchlike !.

 

[43066]

Oh. I was thinking service industry was McDonalds and suchlike !.

For these purposes it basically means white collar professional type jobs. Retail/catering tend not to work from home for obvious reasons!

 

[Starmill]

The very broad demographic of those sort of commuters across the home counties are a) relatively wealthy, b) in service industries, c) have stable families, d) have well-sized homes, e) used to have season tickets for £000s / year, f) had a commute of over 1 hour, twice a day. In that regard, working from home permanently (or with very limited office requirements) is something of a no-brainer for these individuals and groups, especially if its proven to have worked for over 2 years.

I sincerely doubt that sort of white-collar, captive demand is ever going to come back in the same way (except through natural population growth). And this is a major problem for railway revenue because it was consistent, reliable and of a considerable sum.

Precisely. Given the prices and journey times, nobody in their right mind would want to continue to travel four or five days a week to Central London from places like Tunbridge Wells, Leighton Buzzard, Ashford (Kent), Newbury, Haslemere, Bicester, Wellingborough or Witham. And these are only the places that had fast, frequent peak services, and thus encouraged this kind of long-distance commuting. Some places which are rather closer to London but which have poor journey times e.g. Bracknell or Greenhithe are also suffering.

These people are rather enjoying the missing £2 billion / year being in their collective pockets and not spent on train fares. There is no realistic hope of it returning. The money will have to be found from elsewhere, such as new markets.

 

[py_megapixel]

To all the people claiming that local bus services are awful, if you ever have the chance, go to one of several cities in the continental European countries with a comparable per-capita GDP to Britain, and see how fantastic a properly run bus network with high-quality vehicles, dedicated infrastructure and well-designed integration with the rest of the network can actually be.

It's a world away from the free-for-all we have in this country where various disconnected operators run the cheapest spec buses ADL* can churn out down congested roads under the cloud-cuckoo-land illusion that the competition (which is mostly non-existent anyway) will magically improve the service.

*Alexander Dennis Limited, the largest manufacturer of buses in this country.