Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[Dai Corner]

To all the people claiming that local bus services are awful, if you ever have the chance, go to one of several cities in the continental European countries with a comparable per-capita GDP to Britain, and see how fantastic a properly run bus network with high-quality vehicles, dedicated infrastructure and well-designed integration with the rest of the network can actually be.

It's a world away from the free-for-all we have in this country where various disconnected operators run the cheapest spec buses ADL* can churn out down congested roads under the cloud-cuckoo-land illusion that the competition (which is mostly non-existent anyway) will magically improve the service.

*Alexander Dennis Limited, the largest manufacturer of buses in this country.

Are the continental services commercial or subsidised?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are the continental services commercial or subsidised?

Hard to tell, you don't expect routes to stand on their own two feet over there, they understand the value of connecting people to rail. Buses fulfil a totally different role in European cities. So the bus almost certainly is subsidised but that isn't the full story - the bus gets you a train fare.

 

[Dai Corner]

Hard to tell, you don't expect routes to stand on their own two feet over there, they understand the value of connecting people to rail. Buses fulfil a totally different role in European cities. So the bus almost certainly is subsidised but that isn't the full story - the bus gets you a train fare.

One fare gets you from [residential area]-railway station-railway station-final destination? A bit like our Plusbus?

 

[Trainbike46]

One fare gets you from [residential area]-railway station-railway station-final destination? A bit like our Plusbus?

not everywhere, but sometimes yes, and when not it's usually set up in a way that paying for it all separately is rather easy, sort of like in the TfL area where you might either get a travelcard (covering both rail and buses) or use contactless very easily

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It would be interesting to see the revenue numbers, both % and absolute.

ORR do provide more data in their Q2 report but the telling stat is surely on season tickets and this is just one qtr.

Ordinary tickets accounted for £1.9 billion of franchised passenger revenue between 1 April and 30 June 2022. This equates to 79.6% of the £2.4 billion generated by such tickets in the same quarter three years ago (when using 1 April to 30 June 2022 prices). Season tickets accounted for £166 million of franchised passenger revenue in the latest quarter. This equates to 29.1% of the £570 million earned three years ago.

Yes some of the lost season ticket revenue has been converted into ordinary fare income instead but fare revenue remains well down. The industry has probably knocked off most of the low hanging fruit by now hence the need for a change in working practices but the industry has also increased its cost base over many years by ever tightening safety regulations as well as its obsession with driving PPM ever upwards.

 

[Bald Rick]

ORR do provide more data in their Q2 report but the telling stat is surely on season tickets and this is just one qtr.


Yes some of the lost season ticket revenue has been converted into ordinary fare income instead but fare revenue remains well down. The industry has probably knocked off most of the low hanging fruit by now hence the need for a change in working practices but the industry has also increased its cost base over many years by ever tightening safety regulations as well as its obsession with driving PPM ever upwards.

I wonder why ORR didn’t put that in the press release.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Yes some of the lost season ticket revenue has been converted into ordinary fare income instead but fare revenue remains well down. The industry has probably knocked off most of the low hanging fruit by now hence the need for a change in working practices but the industry has also increased its cost base over many years by ever tightening safety regulations as well as its obsession with driving PPM ever upwards.

PPM peaked in 2011 and was basically on the slide to a nadir in 2018 after the timetable problems. Since then it's been rather confused by the 'dead cat' rebound in 2019 and then covid special timetables, together with even more recent crewing problems and 'timetable of the day' issues.

I can fully agree that shaky performance has tended to depress rail patronage for a long time.

 

[Bikeman78]

Also, building bigger roads doesn't actually alleviate traffic, it just creates more of it.

Exactly. Or just moves the problem to the next pinch point. Rover Way is nearly always jammed since they built the dual carriageway link direct from Cardiff Bay. Ironically it's now usually quicker to drive along Newport Road or cut through the residential streets in Splott.

The train is fast and comfortable, coaches are slow get stuck in traffic and make you feel sick if you try to read on them. You'd just take the car if you have one, which most people do.

As an example, I will happily take the kids, aged five and seven, from South Wales to Sussex by train. No way I'd do that journey by coach. As you say, I'd just drive if the train wasn't an option.

Just need to find the money to do it. I do think all these surplus EMUs are a waste if electrification can be justified (fingers crossed).

I thought one of the reasons to electrify was reduced operating costs? So ultimately it will pay for itself. Even better if you have fleets of modern EMUs to replace older DMUs. The Belgians have electrified some very lightly used routes but it allowed them to use EMUs from a standard large fleet and eliminate DMUs or steam heat loco hauled stock.

 

[Mag_seven]

Can we please try and keep discussion in this thread to the topic of Autumn 2022 Passenger Numbers

thanks

 

[Bikeman78]

Hard to tell, you don't expect routes to stand on their own two feet over there, they understand the value of connecting people to rail. Buses fulfil a totally different role in European cities. So the bus almost certainly is subsidised but that isn't the full story - the bus gets you a train fare.

Also most railway stations have bus stops or bus stations right next to them. What a radical idea. Cardiff used to have one but apparently some BBC office blocks were deemed to a better use of the land.

 

[yorksrob]

Just need to find the money to do it. I do think all these surplus EMUs are a waste if electrification can be justified (fingers crossed).

We should have been having a rolling electrification scheme since the 1950's

 

[py_megapixel]

One fare gets you from [residential area]-railway station-railway station-final destination? A bit like our Plusbus?

Plusbus is not true fare integration, it's an afterthought bolted on to the rail ticketing system that only works in random areas of the country, is inexplicably unavailable from some stations even within those areas, is absolutely useless if your journey starts on a bus rather than a train, and is nearly useless anyway because it's quite likely the driver won't recognise it.

I'm doubt this is really what's suppressing rail passenger numbers though.

We should have been having a rolling electrification scheme since the 1950's

I'm becoming convinced that "We need a rolling electrification scheme" is some sort of fundemental particle of RailUK threads - in that any thread on this website, left long enough, will eventually be reduced to that statement.

Of course it's very true that it would be a good idea, but would it really increase passenger numbers that much? I can't imagine so, especially not in the short term.

 

[yorksrob]

Plusbus is not true fare integration, it's an afterthought bolted on to the rail ticketing system that only works in random areas of the country, is inexplicably unavailable from some stations even within those areas, is absolutely useless if your journey starts on a bus rather than a train, and is nearly useless anyway because it's quite likely the driver won't recognise it.

I'm doubt this is really what's suppressing rail passenger numbers though.


I'm becoming convinced that "We need a rolling electrification scheme" is some sort of fundemental particle of RailUK threads - in that any thread on this website, left long enough, will eventually be reduced to that statement.

Of course it's very true that it would be a good idea, but would it really increase passenger numbers that much? I can't imagine so, especially not in the short term.

The "sparks effect" has been a thing in the past.

It's more about securing the long term viability of the industry though - and it seems to be getting more urgent.

 

[uglymonkey]

With the industry and government having their fingers burnt by the GWR electrification, which was made apparently out of pure gold and unobtainium. I cant see a "rolling programme of electrification" any time soon.

 

[dk1]

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

That’s because you don’t take the train to the corner shop.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

That’s because you don’t take the train to the corner shop.

This is so true, right transport for right journey, if I'm going into central London from Norwich train is a no brainer. If I'm going to a sleepy Norfolk village then car is realistically the only method.

This is the confusion though, younger me would have taken the car everywhere, until you realise actually it's probably quicker by train and sitting there driving is a total waste of time.

Again there are many challenges and it's not always clear cut, if I go into the office in Milton Keynes, 2 hour drive or 3 hour by train ( WFH made this job a possibility old world would have been jump in car and commute locally), I can work on the train.

 

[Xavi]

This financial year it’s expected to turn out, very roughly, at about £8bn from farepayers and about £12-13bn from Govt. The latter figure excludes capital costs of HS2, Crossrail, and a few other things.

Is that the forecast for 2021/2022 (not yet published)? Current year at 80% of historic Passenger revenue would be c £9.5 bn.

 

[stuu]

The majority don't care and wouldn't notice I'm afraid. We're the exception on this forum and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Only about 2% of journeys are made by rail.

11%, and was 17% in 2019. It was about 60% for London to Manchester in 2019. For journeys where rail is a sensible choice, i.e. into city centres or long distance, it has a much higher share

 

[geoffk]

Yes some of the lost season ticket revenue has been converted into ordinary fare income instead but fare revenue remains well down. The industry has probably knocked off most of the low hanging fruit by now hence the need for a change in working practices but the industry has also increased its cost base over many years by ever tightening safety regulations as well as its obsession with driving PPM ever upwards.

Surely privatisation has also increased the cost base - fragmentation of operations and train procurement, contracts between the various players with lawyers at every interface, the bureaucracy of delay attribution etc. How much of this can be removed under GBR (assuming it happens)?

 

[davetheguard]

Anyway, with such dire passenger numbers outside of the M25 - London Commuter area I think any investment of any sort is highly unlikely.

Speak for yourself!

As has been said elsewhere passenger numbers down here in deepest Devon are higher than pre-Covid, and the trains (when they're running) are busy. Last time I looked, Devon was most definitely outside the M25.

 

[Dr Day]

Rural lines may be recovering better than commuter ones, but they still make a significantly bigger loss.

 

[yorksrob]

Rural lines may be recovering better than commuter ones, but they still make a significantly bigger loss.

But are we still stuck in the 1960's where we think the railways should "pay their way" or do we see them as a public service that we pay to provide a greater public good ?

 

[Cowley]

Ok. We’re calling time on this unmanageable frequently drifting thread.

All of the electrification discussions are to be found here:

Why has electrification not got further in the UK?

I'm becoming convinced that "We need a rolling electrification scheme" is some sort of fundemental particle of RailUK threads - in that any thread on this website, left long enough, will eventually be reduced to that statement. Of course it's very true that it would be a good idea, but would it...

www.railforums.co.uk

Over and out.