Is Rail Travel in the UK sleepwalking into oblivion?

[kermit]

The prevailing assumption of participants on this forum is that railways are important. I think there are significant indications that as far as the general public and the government are concerned, this is no longer the case. Disintegration and fragmentation through privatisation (meaning for example you can be criminalised for buying a ticket then stepping on the wrong train), followed by the increasing engineering challenges (and disruptions) of maintaining or improving Victorian infrastructure, followed by Covid, and rounded off by an unfocussed slew of disputes (no matter who is right or wrong) have produced a situation where even someone like me hesitates before committing to plans involving train travel. Hundreds of thousands just shrug, walk away, and find a way to live without rail. This no longer feels like the prospect of a death spiral; more like actually gathering speed around the plug hole.

 

[irish_rail]

Railways are more used now than they ever where in the 80s or 90s. More and more people choose not to own cars and people are increasingly environmentally aware. This is just a blip, caused by an inept Government that will soon be history.

 

[JonathanH]

Disintegration and fragmentation through privatisation (meaning for example you can be criminalised for buying a ticket then stepping on the wrong train)

How many people does this genuinely affect? I think you are overplaying this as an issue.

For everyone who gets caught out, someone else is attracted to the railway by such offerings.

 

[Thirteen]

If the Beeching cuts couldn't kill off the Railway then the industrial action won't either. It's still a mode of transport which has its place and indeed the cities wouldn't be able to to cope without trains.

 

[philosopher]

The prevailing assumption of participants on this forum is that railways are important. I think there are significant indications that as far as the general public and the government are concerned, this is no longer the case. Disintegration and fragmentation through privatisation (meaning for example you can be criminalised for buying a ticket then stepping on the wrong train), followed by the increasing engineering challenges (and disruptions) of maintaining or improving Victorian infrastructure, followed by Covid, and rounded off by an unfocussed slew of disputes (no matter who is right or wrong) have produced a situation where even someone like me hesitates before committing to plans involving train travel. Hundreds of thousands just shrug, walk away, and find a way to live without rail. This no longer feels like the prospect of a death spiral; more like actually gathering speed around the plug hole.

Oblivion I think is taking it a bit too far, but I do think the railways risk getting stuck in the doldrums for several decades with declining and then stagnating passenger numbers. Perhaps similar to the period between 1950 to 1995 were passenger numbers declined to about half their post war high then stagnated at that level for a few decades.

Whether this happens I think will depend mainly on government policy and technological, social and economic changes occur in the next few decades

 

[mike57]

Its not just disputes, but also under-resourced TOCs such as Avanti and TPE who cannot run anything like the agreed timetable that are adding to the problems, I can plan a business trip to the NW on a non strike day, but will the trains run to allow me to complete my business and return home in a timely manner, probably not.

I have been saying for a while that we will be looking at a Beeching/Serpell mark 2 unless things change, but there seems to be no political will to sort the mess out. Not so much oblivion as a vastly reduced network which will concentrate on the major inter city routes.

People whose living depends on the rail industry need to wake up and see whats happening, workers, TOCs, people in the supply chain, because if the worst happens there will be a huge loss of income not just to those directly employed, but those who support the rail industry.

At the risk of being shot down in flames I dont think the RMT will win the current dispute, as others have said shades of the '84 miners strike. My comment isnt based on the rights or wrongs, just an assessment of the political landscape outside the rail industry.

 

[A0wen]

If the Beeching cuts couldn't kill off the Railway then the industrial action won't either. It's still a mode of transport which has its place and indeed the cities wouldn't be able to to cope without trains.

The aim of the Beeching cuts wasn't to "kill off" the railway. It was to try to out the rail network on a sustainable footing - in many respects, that's exactly what it achieved.

 

[ARIC]

It isn't an assumption that railways are important - every citizen of this country lives a modern life that is dependant on the one billion plus rail journeys made every year actually happening...even if they didn't make a single trip via rail themselves.

In many areas, there isn't really an alternative to rail to keep people moving, and the work needed for a wholesale shift to alternative modes of transport would be astronomical in scale...and cost, monetary as well as to the local and global environment.

If there was an alternative just sitting there ready to go, then yes, with how everything is on the railway at the moment I'd be really concerned, but oblivion is impossible without huge changes I just can't see getting started, never mind being ready before the current storm passes.

 

[modernrail]

The mood music I am picking up with friends is that all the current problems are making them rely on their cars or if for work just use zoom and why on earth would they risk being stuck for hours on a cold platform or overcrowded train. They also seem to have zero sympathy for the RMT and it’s members as opposed to most other current disputes on the basis the RMT always seem to strike at the drop of a hat.

It is annoying because it means absolute incompetence from Avanti, TPE and the DfT and Government is not picked up properly when this is doing just as much damage to the long term reputation of the railways.

The RMT really does need to think carefully about how it proceeds. It has badly misplayed its hand and more importantly timed the playing of its hand awfully. All focus should be on getting passenger numbers back up to protect against the Tory love of cutting anything that moves, and hammering them for their total incompetence on their side.

 

[irish_rail]

Its not just disputes, but also under-resourced TOCs such as Avanti and TPE who cannot run anything like the agreed timetable that are adding to the problems, I can plan a business trip to the NW on a non strike day, but will the trains run to allow me to complete my business and return home in a timely manner, probably not.

I have been saying for a while that we will be looking at a Beeching/Serpell mark 2 unless things change, but there seems to be no political will to sort the mess out. Not so much oblivion as a vastly reduced network which will concentrate on the major inter city routes.

People whose living depends on the rail industry need to wake up and see whats happening, workers, TOCs, people in the supply chain, because if the worst happens there will be a huge loss of income not just to those directly employed, but those who support the rail industry.

At the risk of being shot down in flames I dont think the RMT will win the current dispute, as others have said shades of the '84 miners strike. My comment isnt based on the rights or wrongs, just an assessment of the political landscape outside the rail industry.

Big difference with the miners dispute. With the miners, importing from abroad made the jobs unsustainable. However on the railway, this won't be so easy, and unless drivers sell their colleagues down the river (we wont) then the Government just cannot afford to sack all the rail workers.

 

[eldomtom2]

The aim of the Beeching cuts wasn't to "kill off" the railway. It was to try to out the rail network on a sustainable footing - in many respects, that's exactly what it achieved.

Beeching round 1 did not make the railway sustainable, which is why it was followed by the never-implemented Beeching round 2 (The Development of the Major Railway Trunk Routes) and twenty years later by the also never-implemented Serpell. What changed is that the railway stopped being seen as something that had to be profitable.

 

[birchesgreen]

The railway isn't facing oblivion but is it facing a period of stagnation and slow decline, just like most things in this country.

 

[Envy123]

My mother tried the car journey once from Peterborough to her work place in London. Easily over 3 hours each way, as opposed to just under 2 hours by train.

However, LNER, at least from Peterborough, has proven to be pretty reliable and resilient. Despite the strikes and snowy weather, touch wood. Thameslink from Huntingdon has always had problems with delays and cancellations, that meant missed meetings and getting home later. Big no-no's. I actually chose Peterborough mainly because of the existence of relatively reliable IC services.

 

[XIX7007177]

Managed decline by government/DFT incompetence.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Yes, it’s a worrying prospect at the moment. I think twice about using the train at all now. I’m surprised at just how many people are still travelling. The dispute needs sorting soon because the railway has great potential, but it seems that nobody wants to unlock it.

 

[12LDA28C]

The prevailing assumption of participants on this forum is that railways are important. I think there are significant indications that as far as the general public and the government are concerned, this is no longer the case. Disintegration and fragmentation through privatisation (meaning for example you can be criminalised for buying a ticket then stepping on the wrong train), followed by the increasing engineering challenges (and disruptions) of maintaining or improving Victorian infrastructure, followed by Covid, and rounded off by an unfocussed slew of disputes (no matter who is right or wrong) have produced a situation where even someone like me hesitates before committing to plans involving train travel. Hundreds of thousands just shrug, walk away, and find a way to live without rail. This no longer feels like the prospect of a death spiral; more like actually gathering speed around the plug hole.

What utter claptrap.

Notwithstanding the changing travel patterns of commuters, plenty of trains in the evenings and weekends are full and standing with passenger numbers back to over 100% of pre-Covid levels on some routes. Ask them if they think railways are important or not.

Not forgetting of course the vital role that rail plays in transporting freight across the country.

The current problems in the rail industry can be summed up pretty much as follows:

1. Government tells people not to travel and stay at home.
2. Government is horrified that people continue to follow that brilliant advice and now that the railways are no longer profitable, operating costs have to be slashed to try to recoup the additional subsidy paid out.

 

[nw1]

Speaking as a lay-person, not an expert:

I'm still hoping that this is all down to the all-round horror show that is the early 2020s, and that things will improve in the second half of the decade.

We've had an unfortunate coincidence of perhaps four external factors outside the rail industry (which I won't mention, but you can probably figure out what they are) which has led to a perfect storm of all-round grimness across the board right now, not just on the railways. However I am still hoping things will return to a semblance of normality in a few years' time.

I would personally say that the railways now are far worse than they were during the supposed grim times of the 80s and early 90s (and I started using the railways in 1982, including daily use during school term-times until 1989, followed by continued regular use in the early 90s: so this is a first-hand observation). However, again (as I said above) I do suspect this is just a blip caused by the current hard times.

 

[mike57]

Big difference with the miners dispute. With the miners, importing from abroad made the jobs unsustainable. However on the railway, this won't be so easy, and unless drivers sell their colleagues down the river (we wont) then the Government just cannot afford to sack all the rail workers.

No but I think the government wants to 'grind them down' and given that more people are working from home, and the increase in rail journeys post covid is mainly lesiure travel the goverment can and will just allow the dispute to run on. Problem is if life carries on as normal for large numbers of people on strike days then there is no need for the goverment to negotiate, a different mechanism, but same outcome as 1984.

 

[dk1]

No lol

 

[74A]

Really this dispute is refighting a battle that occurred in 1981. Then the uunions were forced to agree DOO and then over the subsequent years it was rolled out to a large part of the network.



Then along came so called privatisation. With short contracts it did not stack up financially for the TOCs to go to the effort of bringing in DOO.



Now with the railways effectively renationalised the government has decided to get on with getting the efficiencies and cost saving that DOO will bring.



Surprised the government hasn't tried calling out the RMT for going back on agreements from 1982 !

 

[mrmartin]

Literally record investment going in with HS2 and people are suggesting Beeching 2.0 is on the cards .

We've got three key problems IMO:

1) Covid hangovers, which is affecting driver training etc. This will get solved at some point.
2) Industrial disputes. This is more difficult to solve quickly, however the NR RMT ballot was a lot closer than I expected (63/37). Also, TfL strike action ballot was at a very low turnout (52%?). I'm hopeful they will end sometime in the spring.
3) Reduced commuter usage through the week. This requires IMO innovation/changes to ticketing to spread load throughout the day better and increase passenger numbers significantly, even if the average fare goes down in real terms. Also, over the years demand will continue to grow regardless.

At the end of the day rail transport is the only high capacity option for urban/intercity transport. The roads are full and very difficult to expand, so any economic growth has to come from the railways.

 

[43066]

Now with the railways effectively renationalised the government has decided to get on with getting the efficiencies and cost saving that DOO will bring.

“Efficiencies” and “cost savings” that nobody seems to be able to quantify, and won’t be possible in many locations for years to come, and have triggered an industrial dispute that has cost (by some figures) in excess of £1bn?

That’s before we consider the myriad other industrial disputes the same militant government has triggered, after the previous Conservative government spent the summer wrecking the economy themselves.

What a spiffing job they’re doing….

 

[12LDA28C]

Now with the railways effectively renationalised the government has decided to get on with getting the efficiencies and cost saving that DOO will bring.

And what cost saving is that exactly?

If you retain the guard as an OBS or similar then they are still employed, the only 'benefit' is that a TOC can run a train without an OBS on board in a limited set of circumstances.

Then you have the large initial cost of installing on-station or in-train DOO equipment which will certainly NOT be cheap, and this at a time when Government is hell-bent on cutting costs wherever possible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And what cost saving is that exactly?

If you retain the guard as an OBS or similar then they are still employed, the only 'benefit' is that a TOC can run a train without an OBS on board in a limited set of circumstances.

Then you have the large initial cost of installing on-station or in-train DOO equipment which will certainly NOT be cheap, and this at a time when Government is hell-bent on cutting costs wherever possible.

The main cost saving with non safety critical OBSs is in training, and in particular route learning - any OBS can work any train.

It also removes their ability to have any significant impact on the service by striking.

As for DOO kit most new trains have it and there has been some retrofitting e.g. Class 350s. I doubt it would ever be fitted to BR era DMUs or EMUs but those are on the way out anyway.

 

[Silenos]

Literally record investment going in with HS2 and people are suggesting Beeching 2.0 is on the cards .

We've got three key problems IMO:

1) Covid hangovers, which is affecting driver training etc. This will get solved at some point.
2) Industrial disputes. This is more difficult to solve quickly, however the NR RMT ballot was a lot closer than I expected (63/37). Also, TfL strike action ballot was at a very low turnout (52%?). I'm hopeful they will end sometime in the spring.
3) Reduced commuter usage through the week. This requires IMO innovation/changes to ticketing to spread load throughout the day better and increase passenger numbers significantly, even if the average fare goes down in real terms. Also, over the years demand will continue to grow regardless.

At the end of the day rail transport is the only high capacity option for urban/intercity transport. The roads are full and very difficult to expand, so any economic growth has to come from the railways.

But surely the whole original aim was precisely to cut the railways down to a few routes between major conurbations? So I would have thought that HS2, which is after all greatly reduced from its original ambitions, is not necessarily an argument against implementing a huge reduction in the number of existing rail routes. And yes, that would be hugely disruptive to millions of people, but the problems with Northern and Arriva seem to show that the current government is not too worried by that.

What particularly worries me is that I have seen an increasing number of articles in the press recently floating the idea that now ‘the age of the office commute is over’ (sic), railways are a luxury that we don’t really need. I suspect the public is being prepared, drip drip, for a disastrously reduced train service.

 

[Thirteen]

What particularly worries me is that I have seen an increasing number of articles in the press recently floating the idea that now ‘the age of the office commute is over’ (sic), railways are a luxury that we don’t really need. I suspect the public is being prepared, drip drip, for a disastrously reduced train service.

Realistically you're not going to services cut that much and actually more and more business want people back in the office. This idea that nobody will leave their home ever is ridiculous, you can see that in major cities like London where rail is the lifeblood to getting people from A to B.

 

[Silenos]

Realistically you're not going to services cut that much and actually more and more business want people back in the office. This idea that nobody will leave their home ever is ridiculous, you can see that in major cities like London where rail is the lifeblood to getting people from A to B.

I don’t dispute that the ‘no-one will ever have a face-to-face meeting again’ rhetoric is implausible and hugely overstated (of a piece with ‘no one in the 21st century will need to work more than 15 hours a week’ and ‘driverless cars will soon replace conventional ones’). However, it doesn’t need to be true for incompetent or malicious actors to use it as a justification. And I reiterate - the government is simply not bothered by making people’s journeys vastly more difficult, or we should have seen far more action on the ongoing chaos that is commuter travel around the Northern conurbations.

 

[kermit]

What utter claptrap.

Notwithstanding the changing travel patterns of commuters, plenty of trains in the evenings and weekends are full and standing with passenger numbers back to over 100% of pre-Covid levels on some routes. Ask them if they think railways are important or not.

Not forgetting of course the vital role that rail plays in transporting freight across the country.

Does 4.8% of freight carried sound particularly vital to you? Vigorous, expanding, innovative and fully playing to its environmental advantages, with many companies queueing up to invest in infrastructure? Or marginal and in decline?

Trains full and standing in an era of unprecedented cancellations and delays doesn't sound like a reliable measure of success to me, nor does it mean happy passengers, well motivated to return.

The membership of this forum does not reflect the views (or utter indifference) of the public at large. I'd agree that "oblivion" was a bit over the top, but a slowly withering network about which nobody much cares isn't all that different.

 

[Merle Haggard]

I have engaged my neighbours in conversation about their use of trains. Although some have careers that require travel around the country and others travel regularly for various reason, it seems that - with one exception - none of them has ever travelled by train in recent memory or consider it as an option. The exception was one who had once used London Midland (as it was when he travelled) for a long weekend in London, as a car would be impracticable. He and his wife had travelled First Class but the abiding memory seemed to be 'wasn't very special - first class was full of railwaymen in uniform'.

Obviously this is anecdotal but there are larger towns in Northamptonshire with no railway station and, for those towns that do have one, rail only really offers a London service.

The proportion the population who never use trains would be an interesting one. That proportion may possibly regard the present situation as tiresomely irrelevant to their lives.

Just saying - I myself travel by train usually at least once a week, often more (though not at the present, obviously!) - but should be worrying.

 

[TUC]

Railways are more used now than they ever where in the 80s or 90s. More and more people choose not to own cars and people are increasingly environmentally aware. This is just a blip, caused by an inept Government that will soon be history.

Where? My perception of comments such as these is that they are a big city view of the UK.

If anything, for most of the country the rail strikes, as well as the postal strike and others, are a complete irrelevance. Life is going on as normal.