Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[jfollows]

Press this morning implies to me that Rishi Sunak will get his deal on Northern Ireland because enough of his party's potential troublemakers are prepared to compromise. If so, I'm glad. There will probably be a small number of impossible diehards, which could be greater in number if Boris Johnson joins them, but my view of Boris is that he's only interested in Boris so regardless of whether or not it's good for the country he'll go for anything that makes him more likely to be prime minister again. He's the one I reserve the f bombs for. 3 line whip for Monday so I'm hopeful that we'll get something - basically along the lines of "this is the best compromise I can get" with a few unexpected bonus surprises thrown in. I'm personally fed up of all this talk about "sovereignty", I thought we'd done with this in 2016, let's now get realistic and pragmatic.
If it all works then it will reflect well on Rishi Sunak, but if so I think he'll deserve it. If nothing else it'll give him a "legacy".

 

[nw1]

I'm not sure Putin and Xi are communists, more deranged authoritarian far-right ultra-conservative nationalists.

 

[yorksrob]

Apologies - I got a bit carried away last night.

 

[nw1]

Apologies - I got a bit carried away last night.

If you're referring to my reply - no worries, I wasn't offended at all - and I think we all have a right to use strong language against the likes of Putin and Xi... but the key thing is that they, and their kind, are not, in the slightest, communists.

 

[yorksrob]

If you're referring to my reply - no worries, I wasn't offended at all - and I think we all have a right to use strong language against Putin... but the key thing is that he, and his kind, are not, in the slightest, communists.

Your reply and more generally.

I very much have a cold war mindset, however yesterday was not the time.

 

[david1212]

.... It isn't looking at all good for the Tories' chances at this point, but I wouldn't bet on a crushing Labour victory quite yet. People are a lot more turned off by the Tories than they are turned on by Labour, this still doesn't feel like Blair 1997 territory to me (say what you like about Blair, and I certainly don't have much good to say about him at all, but he did enthuse many people at the time in a way Starmer isn't currently doing *at all*). And even then the Tories got 31% on the day.

I agree with that.

 

[brad465]

Okay that's quite enough f bombs thank you, even asterisked they're still quite obvious!

To be fair it would help if someone told that to Boris Johnson

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Press this morning implies to me that Rishi Sunak will get his deal on Northern Ireland because enough of his party's potential troublemakers are prepared to compromise. If so, I'm glad. There will probably be a small number of impossible diehards, which could be greater in number if Boris Johnson joins them, but my view of Boris is that he's only interested in Boris so regardless of whether or not it's good for the country he'll go for anything that makes him more likely to be prime minister again. He's the one I reserve the f bombs for. 3 line whip for Monday so I'm hopeful that we'll get something - basically along the lines of "this is the best compromise I can get" with a few unexpected bonus surprises thrown in. I'm personally fed up of all this talk about "sovereignty", I thought we'd done with this in 2016, let's now get realistic and pragmatic.
If it all works then it will reflect well on Rishi Sunak, but if so I think he'll deserve it. If nothing else it'll give him a "legacy".

Good to see he is going to confront the diehards and get this over the line which will give the Tories a bit of poll boost but more importantly allow Suank to stamp his authority and push forward with other controversial items. Wont get them re-elected but Labour need to be mindful that there easy victory can soon be eroded and a hung parliament wouldn't be the outcome they want to have to deal with.

 

[Gloster]

A lot will depend on how strong the DUP’s opposition to an agreement is. In the unlikely event of them welcoming it, Sunak is home and dry because the only opposition is likely to be the hard-line ERG headbangers, so he has an (almost) united party. However, the DUP’s unconditional support is, on past performance, unlikely and Sunak’s position will depend on how many other MPs join the headbangers. The more who do so, the weaker it is and, sad to say, the happier Johnson is. Of course, Johnson might do the ‘statesmanlike‘ thing (once someone has explained the concept to him) and support it, while probably quietly undermining Sunak behind his back.

 

[jfollows]

I very much want Rishi Sunak to succeed today, because it's long overdue and it's the right thing to do. Boris Johnson's approach of signing something "to get Brexit done" which he then tried to subvert by introducing legislation "allowing" the UK to break the agreement was arrogant and wrong. And probably wouldn't have worked anyway, in the sense that the UK would then have been mired in courts for years to come if it unilaterally broke the agreement.
Electorally, I don't think most voters (except the ones actually in Northern Ireland) care very much about Ireland and Northern Ireland. The ERG have tried the "sovereignty" play to make this less of a Northern Ireland and more of a UK thing, but it won't work. The DUP are what they are - and having once been shafted by Boris Johnson I can see why they don't trust UK governments much.
No, it'll make Rishi Sunak look good and give him something to be pleased that he has accomplished, but it won't win the next election. I think he's spotted this already, so he's prepared to go out on a limb and push for his view, in the face of opposition. I think the difference is that the ERG can be pragmatic whereas the DUP can't, so there are battles to come.

 

[Cloud Strife]

However, the DUP’s unconditional support is, on past performance, unlikely

The DUP can be bribed, but there's a question over whether there's any money to bribe them with.

 

[takno]

The DUP can be bribed, but there's a question over whether there's any money to bribe them with.

Or indeed whether there's enough ash left in the hands of DUP supporters to make it worthwhile

 

[brad465]

BBC live feed reporting a deal is done:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64779415#

A senior government source tells the BBC: "An agreement has been reached. The deal is done.”

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Or indeed whether there's enough ash left in the hands of DUP supporters to make it worthwhile

The DUP had loads of ash leftover after it fiddled the RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive) a few years ago

 

[Howardh]

Labour have promised to support Sunak, which could be a bad move as if enough Tories read the protocol/treaty (?) and vote against it, if Labour did then they could force a vote of no confidence meaning the rebels would then have to back Sunak or call an election.

However I suppose if the new protocol lasts a few months and fails then Starmer can't take the blame!

Anyhow let's hope it's the beginning of a new and better relationship with the EU.

 

[jfollows]

Labour have promised to support Sunak, which could be a bad move as if enough Tories read the protocol/treaty (?) and vote against it, if Labour did then they could force a vote of no confidence meaning the rebels would then have to back Sunak or call an election.

However I suppose if the new protocol lasts a few months and fails then Starmer can't take the blame!

Anyhow let's hope it's the beginning of a new and better relationship with the EU.

I think the issue for the Conservatives will be whether or not enough of them vote to support Sunak to get a majority without any votes from Labour - I think it's consistent for Labour to say that they'll also support Sunak and it would be contrary if they didn't. I think their view is that it's both significantly better than what we have now (Boris Johnson's promise of no border in the Irish Sea which came to be exactly that) and the best we're going to get, so that we shouldn't get hung up on ideology.
Sunak's problems will come if get doesn't get enough support from his own party for this and requires Labour votes to get the House of Commons to agree to it.
I really don't think that most voters in Great Britain care about Northern Ireland and just want this to be "sorted" and stop being a distraction, and most voters in Northern Ireland support it, it's only the slightly bonkers DUP who are potentially wanting to be bribed (again) as someone suggested earlier before they shut up.

 

[Howardh]

One wonders if, in time, businesses in GB will re-locate to NI so they have full access to both the UK market and the Single Market?? In other words, what does that say about Brexit when you can move to a different part of the same country and get the benefits of the EU without the hassle of the bureaucracy?

 

[nw1]

I really don't think that most voters in Great Britain care about Northern Ireland and just want this to be "sorted" and stop being a distraction, and most voters in Northern Ireland support it, it's only the slightly bonkers DUP who are potentially wanting to be bribed (again) as someone suggested earlier before they shut up.

I suspect many voters in Great Britain are mystified as to why Hard Brexit was allowed to go ahead given the complications it has caused in NI. We might not live in NI, or have close ties with NI, but might be utterly mystified as to why this mess has happened for no discernible benefit other than to please some hard-right militants in the Conservative Party and UKIP/Reform/whatever they're called this week.

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it".

 

[Typhoon]

I'm not sure Putin and Xi are communists, more deranged authoritarian far-right ultra-conservative nationalists.

Putin - I am sure he isn't a communist any more than Stalin or Ceausescu or Honecker (and a stack of others) were, just as Hitler wasn't a socialist.

They are convenient labels, which are applied either by themselves and/or others for political purposes. They are dictators through and through.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

One wonders if, in time, businesses in GB will re-locate to NI so they have full access to both the UK market and the Single Market?? In other words, what does that say about Brexit when you can move to a different part of the same country and get the benefits of the EU without the hassle of the bureaucracy?

Much as I'm sure you'd love to find any excuse to knock Brexit, this agreement doesn't say anything about Brexit really; Rather, it says a lot about the very complex history of Northern Ireland, and the difficulties in finding a solution that satisfies the various competing demands from the different parties and communities there. And the whole agreement illustrates how, ultimately, a lot of politics is about pragmatism and finding least-bad compromises to difficult problems. Getting back to the subject of the Tory party, I would say this also shows Rishi Sunak in quite a good light, that he was willing to work behind the scenes to work with different people and make all the compromises necessary to get an agreement sorted. A very pleasant contrast from a certain predecessor of his

I would though that, I rather suspect all the difficulties getting to this agreement were nothing compared to the difficulties Tony Blair faced in getting the Good Friday agreement signed in the first place!

As for companies moving to Northern Ireland... Maybe. I'm not sure there'd be much benefit though. You'd be making it much easier to sell stuff in the Republic of Ireland, at the cost of making shipping stuff to the (much bigger) rest of the UK much harder. And for the rest of the EU, you'd be trading less paperwork for longer, more expensive, shipping. I can't see that being overall of much benefit to many companies.

 

[Howardh]

As for companies moving to Northern Ireland... Maybe. I'm not sure there'd be much benefit though. You'd be making it much easier to sell stuff in the Republic of Ireland, at the cost of making shipping stuff to the (much bigger) rest of the UK much harder. And for the rest of the EU, you'd be trading less paperwork for longer, more expensive, shipping. I can't see that being overall of much benefit to many companies.

Well blow me down...Leadsome has just said exactly that on the BBC news around 12.10pm today. "What should GB firms do if they want access to the single market?" her reply - "invest in Northern Ireland". Hope millions living in GB caught that.

And is it really any more expensive to ship from the Republic than Dover? New routes, new ships, mass transit? And those Irish ports could be nearer to NI businesses than Dover is from Manchester. And if you ship from Hull to Rotterdam...same distance??

 

[edwin_m]

One wonders if, in time, businesses in GB will re-locate to NI so they have full access to both the UK market and the Single Market?? In other words, what does that say about Brexit when you can move to a different part of the same country and get the benefits of the EU without the hassle of the bureaucracy?

I've seen secondary sources claiming that the NI economy is growing faster than anywhere else in the UK and attributing it to exactly that. I've never seen a primary source though - has anyone here?

Much as I'm sure you'd love to find any excuse to knock Brexit, this agreement doesn't say anything about Brexit really; Rather, it says a lot about the very complex history of Northern Ireland, and the difficulties in finding a solution that satisfies the various competing demands from the different parties and communities there. And the whole agreement illustrates how, ultimately, a lot of politics is about pragmatism and finding least-bad compromises to difficult problems. Getting back to the subject of the Tory party, I would say this also shows Rishi Sunak in quite a good light, that he was willing to work behind the scenes to work with different people and make all the compromises necessary to get an agreement sorted. A very pleasant contrast from a certain predecessor of his

I would though that, I rather suspect all the difficulties getting to this agreement were nothing compared to the difficulties Tony Blair faced in getting the Good Friday agreement signed in the first place!

As for companies moving to Northern Ireland... Maybe. I'm not sure there'd be much benefit though. You'd be making it much easier to sell stuff in the Republic of Ireland, at the cost of making shipping stuff to the (much bigger) rest of the UK much harder. And for the rest of the EU, you'd be trading less paperwork for longer, more expensive, shipping. I can't see that being overall of much benefit to many companies.

It does show Sunak in a good light, thought he's just repairing the damage caused by one of his predecessors. Achieving something Johnson or Truss couldn't (or more likely wouldn't) is a pretty low bar.

NI is the only place where businesses have access to the UK internal market and also the much larger EU market. Just what the whole UK used to have in fact. While the distance from Ireland to the rest of the EU is greater than from the UK, the post-Brexit trade barriers from Britain are likely to mean that shipping from Ireland is both quicker and cheaper.

 

[geoffk]

Well blow me down...Leadsome has just said exactly that on the BBC news around 12.10pm today. "What should GB firms do if they want access to the single market?" her reply - "invest in Northern Ireland". Hope millions living in GB caught that.

And is it really any more expensive to ship from the Republic than Dover? New routes, new ships, mass transit? And those Irish ports could be nearer to NI businesses than Dover is from Manchester. And if you ship from Hull to Rotterdam...same distance??

Yes, it's great for Northern Ireland to be inside both the UK and EU markets, isn't it. Now how about the same benefits for the rest of the UK? Oh hang on, we used to have those, didn't we....... But it's progress anyway and a better UK/EU relationship is developing than was possible with Johnson and Frost in charge. Even Steve Baker is beginning to sound reasonable. What next, perhaps rejoining Erasmus? But I don't want to get carried away yet.

 

[jon0844]

One wonders if, in time, businesses in GB will re-locate to NI so they have full access to both the UK market and the Single Market?? In other words, what does that say about Brexit when you can move to a different part of the same country and get the benefits of the EU without the hassle of the bureaucracy?

I think Rishi knows this is the start of a process to making the rest of the UK have a better relationship with the EU. Brexiteers won't be happy (but they were never going to be anyway, as the immigration problems are what they mostly cared about and Brexit has done nothing to help that; indeed it has got worse).

I don't know how successful he's going to be, but he knows the economy needs us to have more free trade. We need to be able to improve supply chains and re-enable just in time operation for UK businesses who will indeed stop being UK businesses if they can't compete.

 

[simonw]

I think Rishi knows this is the start of a process to making the rest of the UK have a better relationship with the EU. Brexiteers won't be happy (but they were never going to be anyway, as the immigration problems are what they mostly cared about and Brexit has done nothing to help that; indeed it has got worse).

I don't know how successful he's going to be, but he knows the economy needs us to have more free trade. We need to be able to improve supply chains and re-enable just in time operation for UK businesses who will indeed stop being UK businesses if they can't compete.

Except Sunak is a paid up member of The Brexiteers club.

 

[brad465]

Much as I'm sure you'd love to find any excuse to knock Brexit, this agreement doesn't say anything about Brexit really; Rather, it says a lot about the very complex history of Northern Ireland, and the difficulties in finding a solution that satisfies the various competing demands from the different parties and communities there. And the whole agreement illustrates how, ultimately, a lot of politics is about pragmatism and finding least-bad compromises to difficult problems. Getting back to the subject of the Tory party, I would say this also shows Rishi Sunak in quite a good light, that he was willing to work behind the scenes to work with different people and make all the compromises necessary to get an agreement sorted. A very pleasant contrast from a certain predecessor of his

I would though that, I rather suspect all the difficulties getting to this agreement were nothing compared to the difficulties Tony Blair faced in getting the Good Friday agreement signed in the first place!

As for companies moving to Northern Ireland... Maybe. I'm not sure there'd be much benefit though. You'd be making it much easier to sell stuff in the Republic of Ireland, at the cost of making shipping stuff to the (much bigger) rest of the UK much harder. And for the rest of the EU, you'd be trading less paperwork for longer, more expensive, shipping. I can't see that being overall of much benefit to many companies.

It's also achieved relatively broad approval. Labour have said they'd support it in a vote, and some of the strongest Eurosceptics like Steve Baker have expressed support for it (although some Brexit backers like those in Reform UK and some political commentators aren't happy). The biggest loser in this I'd say is Boris Johnson, who's claims he got Brexit done have been debunked, and the divisive tactics he and Frost deployed have been shown up for the failure they were. If the DUP keep disapproving of it it's more likely they're just finding an excuse not to play second fiddle to Sinn Fein as they can't accept being the second largest party.

However, while you say this agreement doesn't say anything about Brexit, one thing that's now expected to result from this is re-entry into the EU's Horizon research programme, which was stopped because of Johnson's NI Protocol Bill.

 

[jon0844]

Except Sunak is a paid up member of The Brexiteers club.

Yes, but he's not an idiot. (Plus a lot of the ERG/Brexiteers all wanted different things from leaving so they weren't by any means a united mob)

Disaster capitalists have made their money. They're still concerned about regulations, so aren't going to want to re-join, but they need the economic benefits now to make more money.

When Rishi is preaching about the benefits of NI having access to the mainland PLUS Europe, it becomes farcical that the rest of the UK can't enjoy the same benefits.. and people are going to be demanding this. By that I mean business leaders. That private meeting from a few weeks ago will have set things in motion and I am not sure it can be stopped.

That doesn't mean it won't be a bumpy ride.

 

[AM9]

Yes, it's great for Northern Ireland to be inside both the UK and EU markets, isn't it. Now how about the same benefits for the rest of the UK? Oh hang on, we used to have those, didn't we....... But it's progress anyway and a better UK/EU relationship is developing than was possible with Johnson and Frost in charge. Even Steve Baker is beginning to sound reasonable. What next, perhaps rejoining Erasmus? But I don't want to get carried away yet.

Well, Horizon has just been re-opened for the UK.

 

[Noddy]

And is it really any more expensive to ship from the Republic than Dover? New routes, new ships, mass transit? And those Irish ports could be nearer to NI businesses than Dover is from Manchester. And if you ship from Hull to Rotterdam...same distance??

While I don’t disagree with your point I think you need to have another look at where Northern Ireland is and the distances you’re talking about! Hull-Rotterdam is approx 220 miles. Rosslare-Rotterdam is approx 640 miles. Even Rosslare-Brest is 290 miles and I don’t think that is a commercial route (currently). Also factor in that Rosslare is 160 miles drive (well over 3 hours in a lorry) from the N Ireland border.

 

[Gloster]

There was a piece in The Grauniad a couple of days ago about how Rosslare, which has a number of routes to the Continent, is growing rapidly. However, I think it is not so much distance that is the problem for UK exports, but the paperwork at an EU—non-EU border and the risk of delays to goods in transit.