Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Cowley]

Well I’ll just copy and paste some of it from the last thread.

So here we are with a new PM (the fourth fifth in six years). How is this likely to play out and is Sunak facing the worst outlook for an incoming PM in over 40 years (I don’t know, I’m just throwing it out there )?

It’ll be interesting to see how long this thread runs for, but anyway.
Here’s the (live) news and the quote:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63375473

Rishi Sunak is now the UK's 57th prime minister after being invited to form a government by King Charles.

He is the third prime minister this year and will enter Downing Street as the youngest PM in two centuries.

Over to you.

 

[brad465]

It feels like the 57th Prime Minister this year.

 

[AM9]

The first thing of sufficient importance that Sunak said nearly every paper has blazened across their front page is that the Conservictives must unite or die. Presumably he will practice what he is preaching by having a cabinet of all mainstream views in the party.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

 

[AlterEgo]

Very interested to see what his Cabinet will look like. He's a much more sober politician than both his predecessors.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The first thing of sufficient importance that Sunak said nearly every paper has blazened across their front page is that the Conservictives must unite or die. Presumably he will practice what he is preaching by having a cabinet of all mainstream views in the party.

Let us see who he actually appoints to those positions then we can discuss that point.

 

[AM9]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

Except that Brown having served as a chancellor of the Exchequer, had a bit more common sense that the departing PM of 44 days.

 

[Yew]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

Didn’t voices in the Conservative party scream for an election then. I seem to remember an article from Boris talking about Brown being a “squatter without a mandate”.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Except that Brown having served as a chancellor of the Exchequer, had a bit more common sense that the departing PM of 44 days.

Was Brown not made (in)famous for his "raid on the pension funds"? Do you classify that as the result of "having a bit more common sense"?

Didn’t voices in the Conservative party scream for an election then. I seem to remember an article from Boris talking about Brown being a “squatter without a mandate”.

Those voices must have been right, as that is exactly what Starmer has been doing for the last few weeks.

 

[Darandio]

Didn’t voices in the Conservative party scream for an election then. I seem to remember an article from Boris talking about Brown being a “squatter without a mandate”.

From his Telepgraph article.......

"It’s the arrogance. It’s the contempt. That’s what gets me.

"It's a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal.

“It’s Gordon Brown’s apparent belief that he can just trample on the democratic will of the British people.

“It’s at moments like this that I think the political world has gone mad, and I am alone in detecting the gigantic fraud.”

Yet since then we've had May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak..........

 

[najaB]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

The difference there being that Blair resigned gracefully rather than being forced out in disgrace, and Brown wasn't then replaced, six weeks later, by a loser in the leadership campaign to replace Blair.

Not to mention that Brown's government was, to all standards that matter, a continuation of the same regime.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Just watched Rishi's speech on tv. Seemed remarkably sensible to me. The following is all strongly paraphrased from my impressions, but my takeaways were: He very explicitly repudiated Liz Truss's approach, saying mistakes had been made. He talked about leading a professional Government - which looked to me like a strong dig at Boris. He stated that he'll be following the 2019 manifesto commitments. There was a strong general focus on economic stability. He also explicitly mentioned protecting the environment - maybe not everyone's priority, but something I always look for in this kind of speech, and something that seemed to me sorely lacking under Liz Truss.

My only complaint was that he was quite vague on details, not really talking about any explicit policies. But I guess that's understandable given the context of the speech.

The next test in my mind is... is he going to sack Therese Coffey and replace her with someone who shows more responsibility and understanding of the importance of healthy lifestyles to health?

Overall impression: Relief that it finally looks like we have a grown-up at No. 10.

 

[dosxuk]

The difference there being that Blair resigned gracefully rather than being forced out in disgrace, and Brown wasn't then replaced, six weeks later, by a loser in the leadership campaign to replace Blair.

Not to mention that Brown's government was, to all standards that matter, a continuation of the same regime.

Blair was also vocal about his intentions that it was going to be his final election as leader, and that if he was to win that election he would step down before fighting the next one. The timing was left, deliberately I suspect, vague, but nobody can honestly say they thought he was still going to be Labour leader at the 2010 election.

 

[gg1]

Blair was also vocal about his intentions that it was going to be his final election as leader, and that if he was to win that election he would step down before fighting the next one. The timing was left, deliberately I suspect, vague, but nobody can honestly say they thought he was still going to be Labour leader at the 2010 election.

Indeed, and it was generally expected that Brown would be the one to succeed as leader. I recall in the 2005 election campaign, the Tories at one point used a slogan along the lines of "Vote for Blair, get Brown" or words to that effect.

In addition, as was mentioned in another thread, there wasn't a great deal of difference between the policies and positions of the post 2005 Brown and Blair premierships.

 

[AlterEgo]

Mogg is out as business secretary.

 

[Ediswan]

Except that Brown having served as a chancellor of the Exchequer, had a bit more common sense that the departing PM of 44 days.

Due to the delay between declaring the intention to resign, and actually resigning, the final number is 50 days.

 

[nw1]

What do people think about the success of Sunak (or otherwise) at the next election, assuming it's around May or June 2024. Some points have been made in the other thread but just wondering the general consensus.

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority: but (as I indicated in the other thread) there is a significant risk that affluent Tory/Lib Dem swing voters may be charmed by him. Enough to make me worried; 19 years of one party is simply too much, though I still think on balance it'll be Labour (let's say 60% probability Labour largest party, 40% probability the Tories)

 

[Bletchleyite]

What do people think about the success of Sunak (or otherwise) at the next election, assuming it's around May or June 2024. Some points have been made in the other thread but just wondering the general consensus.

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority: but (as I indicated in the other thread) there is a significant risk that affluent Tory/Lib Dem swing voters may be charmed by him. Enough to make me worried; 19 years of one party is simply too much, though I still think on balance it'll be Labour (let's say 60% probability Labour largest party, 40% probability the Tories)

I think it's perhaps more likely that the racist "gammons" will switch to the parties aimed at that demographic (UKIP, Reform UK, BNP) and he'll lose votes that way even if he gains more moderate ones.

 

[ChrisC]

What do people think about the success of Sunak (or otherwise) at the next election, assuming it's around May or June 2024. Some points have been made in the other thread but just wondering the general consensus.

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority: but (as I indicated in the other thread) there is a significant risk that affluent Tory/Lib Dem swing voters may be charmed by him. Enough to make me worried; 19 years of one party is simply too much, though I still think on balance it'll be Labour (let's say 60% probability Labour largest party, 40% probability the Tories)

I don’t think it’s just a matter of who the Tory/Lib Dem swing voters will vote for. If Sunak does a good job during the next 2 years and restores some degree of honesty and integrity back to the government he may also win back the trust of some disillusioned traditional Conservative voters.

I have voted Conservative all of my life. The first general election I voted in was when Margaret Thatcher became PM. Over the years I have become very much a slightly right of centre, one nation, Ken Clarke type of Conservative who was very much against Brexit. As a remainer, at the 2019 general election, for the first time ever I didn’t vote for Conservatives with Boris as leader. I couldn’t bring myself to vote Labour with Jeremy Corbyn as leader and so voted Lib Dem. Following the years of Boris and his lies and dishonesty and the recent Liz Truss disaster, I had almost made up my mind to do the unthinkable for me, and vote Labour at the next election to get them out. I would then hope that during a few years in opposition the Conservatives would get themselves sorted out.

Sunak, and a more sensible, grown up attitude, could very well win me back. It will be an end to the lies and deceit that will be the biggest game changer for me. The best news I have heard just now is that the odious Jacob Rees Mogg is out of the government. I hope that more like him go.

 

[TheEdge]

I think it's perhaps more likely that the racist "gammons" will switch to the parties aimed at that demographic (UKIP, Reform UK, BNP) and he'll lose votes that way even if he gains more moderate ones.

Yea, there are going to be a lot of racists unhappy at having a brown PM...

 

[yorksrob]

We'll see if the warm words have much of an effect on the problems caused by the mini-budget.

It's still the same Tory party that caused the fiasco as far as I'm concerned. I shaln't be forgetting.

 

[RichJF]

I expect a cabinet from across the spectrum of Conservatives - such as:
I reckon Hunt, Mourdant, Shapps, Raab, Boudenach & Wallace will be in his cabinet. Differing political opinions from Sunak but probably a uniting cabinet. Wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Gove as Leader of the House of Commons.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think it's perhaps more likely that the racist "gammons" will switch to the parties aimed at that demographic (UKIP, Reform UK, BNP) and he'll lose votes that way even if he gains more moderate ones.

Yes, any previous Tory supporter who is an anti-non-white racist and therefore not willing to vote for a non-white PM will switch to another party with Sunak as PM.

But the numbers of such people in the UK today is going to be so low that it will make no difference, other than maybe in a couple of hyper-marginal constituencies. And could easily be outweighed by people - particularly people from South Asia - who like the idea of an ethnic minority PM and are therefore tempted to switch to the Conservatives on account of that.

 

[Phil56]

Except that Brown having served as a chancellor of the Exchequer, had a bit more common sense that the departing PM of 44 days.

Liz Truss has been an MP for longer than Sunak and had held more Ministerial positions that Sunak, so actually she was more experienced.

What do people think about the success of Sunak (or otherwise) at the next election, assuming it's around May or June 2024. Some points have been made in the other thread but just wondering the general consensus.

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority: but (as I indicated in the other thread) there is a significant risk that affluent Tory/Lib Dem swing voters may be charmed by him. Enough to make me worried; 19 years of one party is simply too much, though I still think on balance it'll be Labour (let's say 60% probability Labour largest party, 40% probability the Tories)

Well he won't be getting votes from the 3+ million self employed/freelancers and casual workers (10% of the working population) who he excluded from the covid support schemes and then lied about in Parliament! People who suffered business loss, losing their homes, loved ones losing their lives, because of being excluded won't forget that in a hurry, and is probably partially why he lost the membership vote to Truss.

 

[duncanp]

It's still the same Tory party that caused the fiasco as far as I'm concerned. I shaln't be forgetting.

...and I won't be forgetting which party it was who advocated more COVID restrictions, and for a longer period of time.

Nor will I forget that it was Rishi Sunak who saved us from having another lockdown at Christmas last year.

 

[Busaholic]

Seeing as how useless Lewis is out, how about Gove returning as Justice Secretary again? He was the only one who wasn't a complete disaster at the job. Raab will require fitting into something 'suitable' too - I'd suggest something, but it would breach Forum Rules.

 

[GS250]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

There was quite a step change in Labour's image when Brown took over. Gone was the flamboyant, free market aura of Blairism and in came a sense of authoritarianism.

However there has also been a big image change amongst the conservatives to say the least.

 

[cygnus44]

Yes we have a new but unelected prime minister but it will be the same old tired faces in cabinet.

 

[AM9]

Yes we have a new but unelected prime minister but it will be the same old tired faces in cabinet.

All UK prime ministers are unelected!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Shapps maybe headed to BEIS according to Pippa Crerar now Rees Mogg has resigned