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Russia invades Ukraine

brad465

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Mike Martin has done some analysis on the coup in Niger and how it matters, despite the fact many will overlook it. In summary the coup is leading to increasing ties towards Russia/pro-Russia groups, and they could try and push for increased migrant flows into Europe to destabilise it:


The coup in Niger is yet another canary in the Sahel that we will miss and/or ignore. This is a region that’s population is on track to double by 2050, whilst also warning at double the global average. This is the crisis that we will be grappling with come 2030

Russian flags all over Niamey.

Basically Russia is building a zone of control in the Sahel which they will use to feed / allow migrants into southern Europe.

Huge US base in Niger. Not clear what till happen to it now.

Niger also full of uranium which is France gets theirs. Not clear what happen with this either.

What is happening in the Sahel is of the utmost strategic importance for Europe and the UK.
 
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Trackman

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Been reading about Ukraine moving the date of Christmas day.

Not sure why the ROC (not as in signalling lol) Russian orthodox church is backing the invasion.

Anyway here's the link and text.

Ukraine has moved its official Christmas Day state holiday from 7 January to 25 December, the latest move aimed at distancing itself from Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law a parliamentary bill that aimed to "abandon the Russian heritage of imposing Christmas celebrations".
In recent years, Kyiv has been cutting religious, cultural and other ties with Russia, aligning itself with the West.
This process escalated following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Mr Zelensky signed the bill on Friday - two weeks after it had been passed by Ukrainian lawmakers.
The legislation also moves another two state holidays, Day of Ukrainian Statehood, from 28 July to 15 July, and the Defenders' Day, which commemorates armed forces veterans, from 14 October to 1 October.
Moscow has so far made no public comments on the issue.
For centuries, first imperial Russia and then the Moscow-dominated Soviet Union had tried - but always failed - to totally control Ukraine.
This included the imposed authority of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) over Ukraine's churches.
But in 2019, the recently formed Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) was granted independence by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, the spiritual leader of Orthodox Christians worldwide.
The move provoked a furious response in the ROC, which is openly defending President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Until this year, the OCU - like several other Orthodox churches, including the ROC - celebrated Christmas Day on 7 January, in line with the Julian calendar.
But the OCU has now officially switched to the more-precise Gregorian calendar used in most parts of the world.
In recent years many Ukrainian worshippers have been joining the OCU, and the majority of them are now likely to be celebrating Christmas on 25 December.
There will also be those marking Christmas twice.
At the same time, millions still follow the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), the other established branch with parishes all over the country.
The UOC has not commented on the latest developments.
It officially declared a split from Moscow in 2022 - but a number of its clerics have recently been prosecuted for pro-Russian activities.
The UOC says there is no evidence to support the charges of collaboration.
The Motherland Monument in Kyiv - one of the world's tallest statues - will be stripped of its Soviet emblem, and Ukraine's coat of arms, the Trident, will replace it
Ukraine's decision to move Christmas is the latest step by the country to distance itself from its north-eastern neighbour.
Cities and villages all over Ukraine have recently seen renaming of their streets linked to Russian and Soviet historical figures.
Similarly, a number of monuments have been taken down, and Russian films made after 2014 banned in Ukraine.
Those measures followed Russia's illegal annexation of Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula in March 2014.
 

zero

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Not sure why the Russian orthodox church is backing the invasion.

How could they not back the invasion, an anti-Putin guy would never get into that position. It would be similar to the Archbishop of Canterbury being a republican.
 

yorksrob

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How could they not back the invasion, an anti-Putin guy would never get into that position. It would be similar to the Archbishop of Canterbury being a republican.

Although not a direct comparison. Dr Williams (The previous Archbishop of Canterbury) was very clear in his opposition to the war in Iraq.

Mike Martin has done some analysis on the coup in Niger and how it matters, despite the fact many will overlook it. In summary the coup is leading to increasing ties towards Russia/pro-Russia groups, and they could try and push for increased migrant flows into Europe to destabilise it:


What with Wagner in Belarus, the various coup's d'etat in Saharan Africa and Russian influence in the OPEC+ countries, it does feel as though Europe is being encircled by Russian forces, economic and military. This is a worrying situation.
 
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brad465

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Possible signs of a climbdown?


Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he does not reject the idea of peace talks on Ukraine.
Speaking after meeting African leaders in St Petersburg, he said African and Chinese initiatives could serve as a basis for finding peace.
But Mr Putin also said there could be no ceasefire while the Ukrainian army was on the offensive.
In the hours after he spoke, Russia said a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow had damaged two office blocks.
Flights were briefly suspended from Vnukovo Airport, south-west of the city centre, and one person was injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reported.
Ukraine has not commented on the drone incident.
One eyewitness, who only gave her first name as Liya, told Reuters she could see fire and smoke."We heard an explosion and it was like a wave, everyone jumped," she said. "Then there was a lot of smoke and you couldn't see anything. From above, you could see fire."
On peace talks, both Ukraine and Russia have previously said they will not come to the negotiating table without certain preconditions.
Kyiv says it will not concede any territory but Moscow says Kyiv must accept its country's "new territorial reality". Russia invaded its neighbour last year and is occupying territory in the country's south and east.
Mr Putin told the late-night press conference on Saturday that there were no plans to intensify action on the Ukrainian front for now.
He also defended the arrest of critical voices, claiming some people were harming Russia from inside.
Criticism of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine is outlawed and most prominent opposition members are behind bars or in exile.

In the wide-ranging briefing, the Russian president also told reporters that Moscow carried out some "preventive strikes" after an explosion on a Crimean bridge earlier this month.
Following the bridge incident - which left two people dead - Mr Putin vowed to respond to what he claimed was a "terrorist" act by Ukraine. Kyiv did not officially say it was responsible for the blast on the bridge, which links the occupied peninsula to Russia.
The Russia-Africa summit comes after an African contingent including leaders and representatives from seven countries met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Mr Putin last month.
President Zelensky has in recent days been visiting Ukrainian special forces near Bakhmut, the city where some of the fiercest fighting of the war has been taking place.
Ukrainian authorities have said Kyiv's troops are gradually moving forward near the eastern city, which Russian forces seized in May.
Overnight the north-eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy was hit by rockets, killing one person and injuring five others, the country's interior ministry said.
The ministry said on Telegram that a Russian missile hit an educational institution on Saturday evening. The BBC has not verified this information.
Elsewhere, two people were killed and another was injured after a missile hit "an open area" in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia on Saturday, an official said.
Anatoliy Kurtiev, secretary of the city council, said the blast wave caused by the "enemy missile" blew out apartment windows and damaged an educational institution and supermarket.
Even if this trying to move towards a climbdown, the ultimate problem with any peace talks involving Russia is that they have a track record of never honouring any agreement that results.
 

yorksrob

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Possible signs of a climbdown?



Even if this trying to move towards a climbdown, the ultimate problem with any peace talks involving Russia is that they have a track record of never honouring any agreement that results.

Window dressing for his Chinese and other allies.

I can't imagine Kyiv agreeing to a ceasefire with the Russians occupying its territory, so it's a meaningless "suggestion".
 

Parjon

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Even if this trying to move towards a climbdown, the ultimate problem with any peace talks involving Russia is that they have a track record of never honouring any agreement that results.
Indeed. In fact they along with the USA and UK were signaturories to the Budapest agreement. Post USSR Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, and in exchange Russia agreed to not to do... well, everything they are doing right now.
 

GS250

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I see the Belarusian leader has taunted Poland on the Wagner group being held back from apparently beating their country up. Quite ridiculous thing to say really although little more than false brinkmanship.

Not sure if fancy my chances in a ground war v the Poles.
 

357

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Belarus sent military helicopters 3km into Polish airspace today
 

357

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brad465

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Weapons are being distributed to civilian forces in Belgorod, near the Ukraine border. What could possibly go wrong (for Russia)?


Russian local authorities have begun distributing anti-drone guns and other weaponry to civilian forces in the south-west of the country for the first time since the Ukraine war began.
 

brad465

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Ukraine now appear to be doing to Russian exports what Russia is trying to do to Ukraine's grain exports:


A Russian naval ship has been damaged in a Ukrainian naval drone attack in the Black Sea, Ukrainian sources say
The assault is reported to have happened near the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which is a major hub for Russian exports.
Russia's defence ministry said it had repelled a Ukrainian attack with two sea drones on its naval base there.
But Ukrainian security service sources say the Olenegorsky Gornyak was hit and suffered a serious breach.
They told the BBC a sea drone was carrying 450kg (992lb) of dynamite when it hit the ship.
Russia made no mention of any damage in its report of the incident.
A video sent to the BBC by a source with Ukraine's security service appears to show the drone approaching a ship thought to be the Olenegorsky Gornyak.
The footage shows a vessel travelling right up to the side of a ship before the feed cuts out, apparently on impact.
Another unverified video is thought to show the ship listing to one side.
Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack.
The Novorossiysk port temporarily suspended any movement of ships following the assault, according to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which loads oil on to tankers at the port.
Sea drones are small, unmanned vessels which operate on or below the water's surface.
Research by BBC Verify suggests Ukraine has carried out at least 10 attacks with sea drones- targeting military ships and Russia's naval base in Sevastopol, as well as Novorossiysk harbour in a previous attack.
This is based on announcements by Russian and Ukrainian authorities, and local media reports. Ukrainian defence sources have told CNN that sea drones had also been used in an attack on the Kerch Bridge to Crimea in July.
Novorossiysk is one of the biggest ports in the Black Sea. The emergency services in the area confirmed reports of blasts and security services have been informed, Russian state media said.
Clashes in the sea have increased in recent weeks, after Russia abandoned a UN deal that enabled grain to be safely exported between Russia and Ukraine across the water.
 

yorksrob

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Belarus sent military helicopters 3km into Polish airspace today

They should have shot them down.

What could Lukoshenko have done, other than look awkward as they were on Polish territory.

Turkey's shot down Russian planes before.
 

Killingworth

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They should have shot them down.

What could Lukoshenko have done, other than look awkward as they were on Polish territory.

Turkey's shot down Russian planes before.

If the helicopter fell on Polish territory I'm sure that would be considered appropriate. The incursion lasted possibly a couple of minutes?

During the time it was over Poland, it t was spotted missile fired and struck it would have been back in Belarus airspace and would have fallen there. Rather more difficult diplomatically
 

yorksrob

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If the helicopter fell on Polish territory I'm sure that would be considered appropriate. The incursion lasted possibly a couple of minutes?

During the time it was over Poland, it t was spotted missile fired and struck it would have been back in Belarus airspace and would have fallen there. Rather more difficult diplomatically

It was there long enough.

They should have made a point.
 

najaB

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They should have made a point.
I suspect they made their point by lighting up their radar lock lights for the entire time they were in Polish airspace. No need to actually shoot them down if you can prove that you could have.
 

uglymonkey

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Nothing better though than a big bang for the news media than "lighting them up" on missile targeting radar, which only a few " in the know will know about" ( pilots, missile aimers air traffic controllers etc). I'm not saying they should have shot them down, but it would have been much more visible across the world if they did.
 

yorksrob

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I suspect they made their point by lighting up their radar lock lights for the entire time they were in Polish airspace. No need to actually shoot them down if you can prove that you could have.

That's all good.

Make one strike.

Next strike then they're out. Good reminder for Wagner.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I suspect they made their point by lighting up their radar lock lights for the entire time they were in Polish airspace. No need to actually shoot them down if you can prove that you could have.

The problem is, it probably conveys to both Putin and Lukashenko the message that, even when the West is able to and completely justified in taking action against forces on their territory, the West won't do it. We've seen in the past that when Putin sees that message, he presumes that means he can do even more in the future.
 

najaB

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The problem is, it probably conveys to both Putin and Lukashenko the message that, even when the West is able to and completely justified in taking action against forces on their territory, the West won't do it. We've seen in the past that when Putin sees that message, he presumes that means he can do even more in the future.
It also lets them know that we're not going to take the bait, which is all a couple of helicopters flying just over the border could possibly be.
 

dgl

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and it also shows that we are the better person, if putin wanted to go "NATO are the baddies here, look we just wen't "accidentally" in to their airspace for a bit and with no warning shot us down" he can't.
 

Giugiaro

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Despite flying low, they were spotted, identified and tracked.

Belarus might be thinking that they did a Pro Gamer move, but all they did was show that they're willing to walk into the Safari gearless and uninvited.
 

yorksrob

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Sky reporting an hour ago Russian forces firing missiles into Ukraine from Belarus.

So does this mean Belarus now at war with Ukraine or as allegedly ‘Russian forces’ firing that won’t be the case?

It means that "Russian forces" (whatever they may be) in Belarus are fair game.
 

gingerheid

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Belarus has been quite lucky in all of this, and as always with those types of people have taken it with a sign of weakness. By allowing Ru**ians to invade from their land they have been involved since the beginning.

I fear (for Belarus) that it looks like Ru**ia is about to push this too far, and that it will become more involved than it wanted to be.
 

yorksrob

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Belarus has been quite lucky in all of this, and as always with those types of people have taken it with a sign of weakness. By allowing Ru**ians to invade from their land they have been involved since the beginning.

I fear (for Belarus) that it looks like Ru**ia is about to push this too far, and that it will become more involved than it wanted to be.

Never give Putin an inch as he will take the mile.
 

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