Potential Grand Union stock?

[Bob Price]

This has been a quiet thread. Anyone heard any news on GU getting their hands on any stock yet? If they are planning to start operations next year then they would need some order in by now.

 

[JonathanH]

If they are planning to start operations next year then they would need some order in by now.

Website says 2025 during the currency of the December 2024 timetable, so could be two years yet.

Grand Union is proposing to launch a new service between Carmarthen and London. It will start with a full service between Carmarthen and London in 2025 during the timetable that begins in December 2024.

http://www.granduniontrains.co.uk/

I wonder if their costings have been affected by much higher lease prices on rolling stock than they planned for. How solid is their financial backing?

 

[The Planner]

Stirling is a remote possibility for May 25. Carmarthen is unlikely Dec 24 I suspect.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

heard in one of Modern Railways August 2023 edition that it was to be delayed to 2027 due to the rolling stock acquisition issues. They have been considered HSTs as interim fleet according to the September 2023 edition of Modern Railways Page 17. They are basically looking at interim rolling stock

 

[aem7ac]

If they're looking into interrim stock but have pushed back the start of services to 2027, when will they actually get their new stock? Grand Union still says they expect to start in 2024/2025 on their website. I would think 180s or Mk5As/93s (or maybe even DB 90s) would be possible options. I'm not too knowledgable on these topics, though.

 

[The Planner]

heard in one of Modern Railways August 2023 edition that it was to be delayed to 2027 due to the rolling stock acquisition issues. They have been considered HSTs as interim fleet according to the September 2023 edition of Modern Railways Page 17. They are basically looking at interim rolling stock

Carmarthen is now showing as Dec 27 in documents I have seen.

 

[mangyiscute]

Any idea of a timeline for Stirling - could it potentially come before Carmarthen?

 

[XCTurbostar]

Any idea of a timeline for Stirling - could it potentially come before Carmarthen?

Depends if Grand Union has issued a new track access request, I believe at least one has been declined over lack of WCML South paths?

 

[popeter45]

Depends if Grand Union has issued a new track access request, I believe at least one has been declined over lack of WCML South paths?

if WCML south is full for now in theory could they replace Milton keynes with bedford and go via MML?

 

[Farigiraf]

Depends if Grand Union has issued a new track access request, I believe at least one has been declined over lack of WCML South paths?

They could delay it until HS2 is running (Yes I know, Boo!!) if they need paths

 

[43102EMR]

If they're looking into interrim stock but have pushed back the start of services to 2027, when will they actually get their new stock? Grand Union still says they expect to start in 2024/2025 on their website. I would think 180s or Mk5As/93s (or maybe even DB 90s) would be possible options. I'm not too knowledgable on these topics, though.

I’ve heard they’re looking into HSTs (likely the CrossCountry sets)

 

[aem7ac]

I’ve heard they’re looking into HSTs (likely the CrossCountry sets)

Would it make sense to let them languish in storage for nearly 4 years though if the only service they have approval for so far has been delayed to 2027? That's where this whole interim stock idea confuses me.

 

[zwk500]

They could delay it until HS2 is running (Yes I know, Boo!!) if they need paths

There's only so long you can keep things in the set-up stage as there's still bills to pay. Also if stock is an issue then certain fleets may only have specific windows in which to acquire them as off-lease stock is not helpful to the ROSCO.

 

[RailWonderer]

If GC have only taken 10 of the 22 Voyagers then GU could take up the remaining 12 leaving all ex-VT/Avanti 221s with OA operators besides the ones that went over to XC years back.

 

[43102EMR]

If GC have only taken 10 of the 22 Voyagers then GU could take up the remaining 12 leaving all ex-VT/Avanti 221s with OA operators besides the ones that went over to XC years back.

20 not 22 - also not guaranteed GC are taking on the additional 8, let alone keeping the 2 they already have (though with the 180 reliability they’d be stupid not to…)

There’s also a huge grey area as to whether the other 10 will end up with XC.

 

[Caaardiff]

There's quite a few 175's that appear to be having trouble finding new homes
5 and 6 car formations would be a good starting point.
Would full length HST's be too long for Carmarthen with TFW and GWR both operating there and only 2 available platforms?

 

[JonathanH]

if WCML south is full for now in theory could they replace Milton keynes with bedford and go via MML?

No. The MML is also full. Moreover, the journey times would be terrible.

 

[Western 52]

The Carmarthen service also involves the building of the new Swansea Parkway Station at Felindre. No sign of that happening by 2025! Maybe they'll run via Swansea High Street until the new station is ready?

GWR now run about 7 trains a day to Carmarthen, but loadings seem rather light to me. Is there really a market for GU to Carmarthen?

 

[43102EMR]

There's quite a few 175's that appear to be having trouble finding new homes

Supposedly Angel Trains have found a new lessor, but as for who that is I’m not sure…

 

[Caaardiff]

The Carmarthen service also involves the building of the new Swansea Parkway Station at Felindre. No sign of that happening by 2025! Maybe they'll run via Swansea High Street until the new station is ready?

GWR now run about 7 trains a day to Carmarthen, but loadings seem rather light to me. Is there really a market for GU to Carmarthen?

It may have been on this thread, but I read somewhere GWR's increase in Carmarthen services may have been linked to the GU proposals. TFW's service in West Wales is somewhat consistently unreliable, again making Walesonline articles, with many, many negative comments. GU may be a breath of fresh air with what they intend to offer, along with competition for GWR and to some degree TFW.
TFW is still pushing ahead with change though, with the new fleets, extra capacity and the Drivers pay deal including Sundays likely to have a big positive effect in the coming months and years to improving reliability and capacity issues.

 

[43102EMR]

GWR now run about 7 trains a day to Carmarthen, but loadings seem rather light to me. Is there really a market for GU to Carmarthen?

The main market I’d say would be Swansea/Cardiff to Paddington, which is in severe lack of competition with GWR being the sole route operator.

 

[anthony263]

heard in one of Modern Railways August 2023 edition that it was to be delayed to 2027 due to the rolling stock acquisition issues. They have been considered HSTs as interim fleet according to the September 2023 edition of Modern Railways Page 17. They are basically looking at interim rolling stock

Avantis 221s also been suggested as potential stock for grand union to use

Grand union will get a lot of customers with their non stop Bristol parkway to London Paddington.

Theres certainly demand for a alternative operator to.compete with GWR. I cant see them.touching the MK5As or the class 180s.

I'm going to put my money on them getting some class 221s

 

[The Planner]

Any idea of a timeline for Stirling - could it potentially come before Carmarthen?

There is more chance of that, especially as Carmarthen is 4 years away.

I'm going to put my money on them getting some class 221s

Would be a reasonable bet I reckon, especially for the WCML.

Depends if Grand Union has issued a new track access request, I believe at least one has been declined over lack of WCML South paths?

Paths are still there I believe.

 

[anthony263]

There is more chance of that, especially as Carmarthen is 4 years away.


Would be a reasonable bet I reckon, especially for the WCML.

Grand union were looking for the same stock for both routes so potentially could imagine 221s for both lines

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

There's quite a few 175's that appear to be having trouble finding new homes
5 and 6 car formations would be a good starting point.

Would undoubtedly not work with the many 125mph 80x paths it’d have to mingle with.

Supposedly Angel Trains have found a new lessor, but as for who that is I’m not sure…

For 175/0 only was the word on the vine.

 

[JonathanH]

Theres certainly demand for a alternative operator to.compete with GWR.

Or simply for GWR to offer lower prices? I doubt anyone really cares about revenue extraction being the way to do it.

 

[devon_belle]

Every time that I've travelled GWR Llanelli - London the train has been empty until Cardiff. Certainly quiet before Swansea. I'm sure they've assessed the business case more rigorously than this, but I am questioning whether running to Carmarthen is really just a way for them to be allowed to compete on the London - Cardiff traffic.

 

[mangyiscute]

Every time that I've travelled GWR Llanelli - London the train has been empty until Cardiff. Certainly quiet before Swansea. I'm sure they've assessed the business case more rigorously than this, but I am questioning whether running to Carmarthen is really just a way for them to be allowed to compete on the London - Cardiff traffic.

In my mind, they are certainly just trying to get a piece of the London to Cardiff corridor - however, if they reduce prices on this route, I am not going to complain

 

[Energy]

In my mind, they are certainly just trying to get a piece of the London to Cardiff corridor - however, if they reduce prices on this route, I am not going to complain

Open access operators generally run a very profitable corridor (e.g London to York or Doncaster) with a bit added on the end to a place which isn't well served to London and could probably do with a better service.

If it was just London to Cardiff they'd struggle with revenue abstraction, Lumo got through as it argued that many would have flown, taken a coach or just not have traveled, which so far seems about true.

 

[popeter45]

would be nice to see HST's back in paddington, wonder what formation they would go with as seems plan is for better seating than seen on the rest of the network?
thou if they could hire in a 93 wonder how much mark 3 LHCS is still usuable or if any mark 4 sets are free?