HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Bletchleyite]

What kind of mindset does it take for Rishi Sunak to even dare think about scrapping the Manchester leg of HS2 in the very city that will be losing out on it? At this point the only thing left to scrap aside from the whole project itself is the Euston to Old Oak Common leg, but surely not?

Euston-OOC is in so much doubt that it's effectively scrapped. Might as well pack the lot in now.

 

[Austriantrain]

What kind of mindset does it take for Rishi Sunak to even dare think about scrapping the Manchester leg of HS2 in the very city that will be losing out on it? At this point the only thing left to scrap aside from the whole project itself is the Euston to Old Oak Common leg, but surely not?

The Guardian writes that scrapping OOC - Euston is expected too. At which point you might as well cancel everything..

 

[TheHSRailFan]

Should have built a conventional railway London to Birmingham. Probably using part of the GC route. Spend the money saved on reinstating the slow lines on the ECML and other route upgrades.Laying all the track on a concrete slab must have pushed up the price.

The Great Central route was never an option because it didn't solve the main problem. It's got a lot of bends and would involve a lot more destruction and angry companies who've set up along that line. Not to mention its whole purpose was to relieve the already very used and congested West Coast (and inadvertently the East Coast & Midland Main Line) by adding more capacity, taking a lot of those services off and having the opportunity to add more freight. Also there's no case for "reinstating the slow lines on the ECML".

They have been for ages...

Very true that... they've just been dying from laughter more and more now.

Tory wipe-out north of Birmingham

Oh it's going to happen...

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Sky's Beth Rigby is reporting:-

On HS2 from No 10 spokesperson: “These reports are incorrect. No final decisions have been taken on Phase 2 of HS2”

'Never believe anything, until it is officially denied' I believe Sir Humphrey said.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Guardian writes that scrapping OOC - Euston is expected too. At which point you might as well cancel everything..

Agree. "Aston to Acton" is a pointless white elephant. You need Euston to be able to move enough* trains off the south WCML to get any real benefit from Phase 1.

* 9tph if you just use what's there now - three Manchester, three Birmingham, two Liverpool and one Scotland.

 

[Sorcerer]

Euston-OOC is in so much doubt that it's effectively scrapped. Might as well pack the lot in now.

The Guardian writes that scrapping OOC - Euston is expected too. At which point you might as well cancel everything..

Well in that case I agree, might as scrap the whole project otherwise, because every cutback on infrastructure is a cutback on all the benefits. It's a great shame because HS2 was a vital piece of infrastructure that has been turned into a national and international laughing stock. It was mentioned in another thread, but Rob Holden (head of London and Continental Railways) not being consulted was a big mistake, because if his company could deliver on HS1 (another high speed railway into London opened in phases) on time and within budget, then to not draw upon that experience is nothing short of an absolute shamble. Just another example of an increasingly broken Britain.

 

[stuu]

It would take years because you'd have to go through the Hybrid Bill process again to regain powers to obtain the land.

Selling the land, now that the compulsory purchase powers have been extinguished would essentially kill the scheme permanently.

They haven't been, they need to publish and pass a repeal bill to remove the powers

 

[1D54]

Tory wipe-out north of Birmingham

If they are wiped out north of Brum i very much doubt you can totally lay the blame on HS2 as public opinion was against the project in the first place.

 

[chris11256]

They haven't been, they need to publish and pass a repeal bill to remove the powers

That's interesting, is there parliamentary time do do that before the election(assuming Autumn 2024)?

 

[DelW]

Cancelling OOC to Curzon Street would be utterly stupidity (which I realise doesn't mean it won't happen). Almost all the civil engineering cost is already committed in signed contracts, meaning that cancellation would save very little money. We would end up having spent three quarters of the cost and realising none of the benefits. There would also be considerable cost in mothballing what has been built to date, to make it safe to leave.

 

[JGurney]

This is a dark day, I expect other countries to be laughing at us right now.

More looking on with incredulity.

 

[Cach17]

What do you expect from a government led by a hedge fund manager who takes a helicopter everywhere and seems to be developing an obsession with supposedly motorist-friendly measures.

Good luck keeping those northern seats blue.

 

[JonathanH]

This is a dark day, I expect other countries to be laughing at us right now.

More looking on with incredulity.

It is just a signal to the world that the UK economy can not support the level of expenditure it has become accustomed to. Very worrying for the future but where we have been heading for some time.

 

[matacaster]

That's interesting, is there parliamentary time do do that before the election(assuming Autumn 2024)?

They can easily make time. Just ditch a few bills and guillotine debate.

 

[HSTEd]

They haven't been, they need to publish and pass a repeal bill to remove the powers

The compulsory purchase powers in these bills almost always sunset themselves.

Otherwise they will remain hanging over people even if schemes never actually purchase the land required.

There was even a rush on Phase 1 because HS2 struggled to finish acquiring land in time.

EDIT:

It appears that the next election will occur before the powers are extinguished.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

I have not normally been too vocal about the political situation but if this report is true then the Conservatives deserve to get a massive wipeout at the next election on the grounds of what happened to the Conservative government in Canada in 1993 something even approaching sub 100 seat level. I was until now happy to wait to the scheduled election next year but now if true of course I am hoping to see an election earlier I would rather see the northern 'Red Wall' northern MPs put principle before their jobs (which they are likely to loose within a year anyway and table a vote of no confidence in this government if this decision is confirmed as they were elected on a mandate to level up the North and to stand by this and let it go through would be a betrayal of the mandate they were elected on. Up until now I thought that given the majority inherited from Johnson a vote of no confidence would be unlikely but if you google Tim Wilson online he appears to be quite knowledgeable politically thinks that if a vote of confidence is held in the next year Sunak would loose like Callaghan did in 1979 in 1979 the SNP withdrew support when devolution failed that time leading to Thatchers election and this time IMO reneging on HS2 means that the northern Tory MPs should withdraw support immediately in fact all pro HS2 Conservative MPs should withdraw support for Sunak's government does anyone think that is a possibly now be great if it is! Just me myself is feeling pretty upset today about this possible news I have wrote of 2 emails to my MP and called her office 2 twice today my MP is Labour (Maria Eagle) so I am demanding an explanation of Labours position on HS2. As I feel upset I don't normally get raging or upset about political decisions (except Brexit when it first happened). Scrapping the Eastern leg was bad enough but scrapping anything north of Lichfield is moronic do you think the Northern MPs will rebel I really hope so - see 1979 precedent. And even worse is the fact that government ministers are still denying a decision has been made! Even by the standards of recent Conservative governments this does seem moronic bordering on insanity and why are they making this decision with a year left to go until the election why not earlier?

 

[Farigiraf]

Surprising this was scrapped but East Midlands Parkway is still on the table (although I know there's no chance)

 

[GatwickDepress]

Embarrassing. I suppose on the bright side, it'll provide a lot of heated discussion in my university tutorials...

 

[Peter Sarf]

Tory wipe-out north of Birmingham

Not necessarily - all those NIMBYs will be happy !.

Lets face it there are more pro car voters than there are pro rail voters. Rail is not as necessary as it was before Covid. Be very sad if its true especially if OOC-Euston does not get built. I wait to see but forget about beyond Stage 2a.

 

[Floul1]

That's interesting, is there parliamentary time do do that before the election(assuming Autumn 2024)?

Realistically, the UK has no real checks and balances on what parliament can and can't do. Thanks to parliamentary sovereignty, if they wanted to push it through before Christmas this year they could do it, look at how fast the COVID restrictions were passed (Introduction to Royal Assent in 6 days)

 

[AdamWW]

Realistically, the UK has no real checks and balances on what parliament can and can't do.

If both houses are in agreement.

 

[GardenRail]

We all knew it would get cancelled. Thing is, even Labour is silent on the issue too. Because no political party wants it.

 

[nr758123]

Surprising this was scrapped but East Midlands Parkway is still on the table (although I know there's no chance)

The government will just cancel that without bothering to make any announcement.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Just think of all the expert design, planning and legal time put into Phase 2 (East and West, including the Golborne Link), all about to be trashed.
How will they rationalise this with last year's IRP, which depended on HS2's route into Manchester for NPR?
And Hunt's "no conceivable reason why HS2 will not reach Euston", from earlier this year?

HS2 Crewe-Manchester was almost shovel-ready, with the Bill well on its way through parliament.
There's no way an NPR route can be ready for parliament within 5, maybe 10 years.
And what of Water Orton-East Midlands Parkway, and working out "how to get HS2 trains to Leeds"?
They can also halve the order for HS2 trains, which will put the price up sharply, and cancel all the linked WCML upgrade work north of Lichfield.
Oh and there will be a lot of highly-paid people, many of them railway specialists, about to lose their jobs.

There will be increased pressure on Labour to say what they would do.
Don't expect a simple reinstatement of the HS2 plans.
Maybe we'll have some WCML, MML and ECML upgrade plans as a sop.

 

[Samzino]

Is anyone surprised??

 

[nr758123]

They scrap the leg to Manchester while at their conference in Manchester. That's "brass neck act of the year" decided.

It wasn't meant to be this way. The intention was to announce the cancellation later this Autumn, once the party conferences were out of the way. It's only being discussed in public now because a document proposing cancellation was photographed/leaked.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Further to my above post would the Hansacre link be expected to survive as just a captive OOC- Curzon Street service will be a white elephant imo I might be able to except 2b Crewe-Manchester Piccadilly being paused until the next parliament but if Crewe is cancelled to it does sound moronic and no Hansacre link would be insane considering all the arguments I have looked at online about releasing capacity for the future yes Crewe would be better than nothing but there will still be capacity issues through Stockport does anyone think this could result in a vote or no confidence and a collapse of this administration

 

[Trackman]

Euston-OOC is in so much doubt that it's effectively scrapped. Might as well pack the lot in now.

Didn't they stop work about 6 months ago?
Not totally clued up on this

 

[AdamWW]

does anyone think this could result in a vote or no confidence and a collapse of this administration

I suspect that view overestimates the importance of railways in the general scheme of things in the UK.

 

[Energy]

They can also halve the order for HS2 trains, which will put the price up sharply, and cancel all the linked WCML upgrade work north of Lichfield.

The government are creating economic downturn at this point.

What Rishi has missed is that the phase 1 NIMBYs will likely be more annoyed if the line only goes to Birmingham... and the red wall Boris won will feel very betrayed that levelling up is HS2 being cancelled and NPR uncertain.