Haymarket to Dalmeny electrification

[Falcon1200]

Can someone please explain how cancelling (part of) HS2 has resulted in the Scottish Government having less money to spend?

 

[najaB]

Can someone please explain how cancelling (part of) HS2 has resulted in the Scottish Government having less money to spend?

In a nutshell, the Barnett formula sets out how government expenditure is split between England and the devolved governments. For every £1 of spend on devolved matters in England, the Scottish and Welsh governments and Northern Irish assembly are allocated (made up figures) £0.10, £0.05 and £0.03 based on the relative sizes of the populations.

 

[68000]

Can someone please explain how cancelling (part of) HS2 has resulted in the Scottish Government having less money to spend?

Scotland gets funded for capital projects by virtue of what UK govt decides to spend in England on 'non-national' projects. UK govt budgets set out annualised spending forecasts on these England 'non-national' projects, the Barnett formula apples and this generates money for the Scottish govt to spend on capital projects, these turn into annualised budgets which the Scottish govt state what they are going to do with the money. That is why the Scottish govt budget always takes place after the UK govt budget because the money available is based on UK govt spending decisions. If UK govt cuts spending, the money to the Scottish govt is cut. If UK govt increases spending, the money to the Scottish govt is increased

HS2 was a fully forecasted project which was deemed 'non-national' and generated funding budgets to the Scottish govt. A few months ago, the UK govt decided to cancel HS2 therefore they cancelled the corresponding funding to the Scottish govt

 

[Benjwri]

A few months ago, the UK govt decided to cancel HS2 therefore they cancelled the corresponding funding to the Scottish govt

It should be mentioned though that all the non national projects funded instead will result in funding increases for the Scottish Government

 

[najaB]

It should be mentioned though that all the non national projects funded instead will result in funding increases for the Scottish Government

That's on the assumption that any projects get funded. Many of the initial round of projects listed after the HS2 announcement were either already completed or had been cancelled.

 

[Falcon1200]

Thanks for the answers @najaB and @68000.

So, a further question; What is the actual amount the Scottish Government has, in the words they will doubtless use, been short-changed by the HS2 cancellation?

 

[68000]

Thanks for the answers @najaB and @68000.

So, a further question; What is the actual amount the Scottish Government has, in the words they will doubtless use, been short-changed by the HS2 cancellation?

There are two challenges for the Scottish govt - Opex and Capex. Capex is what we have been discussing here and there is no doubt that UK govt cancelling HS2 will affect that however there are significant issues in the Opex side of things. The pay deals struck with various unions over the last year will need to be budgeted for as well as various increases in benefits and the council tax freeze. I get the impression that the Scottish govt hoped UK govt would settle some of the pay disputes down south that would then generate additional cash - this has not happened to the extent hoped.

 

[A330Alex]

There was a £500m reduction in the rail capital budget from 22/23 to 23/24 with a further £60m reduction from 23/24 to 24/25.

Level 3	2022-23 Budget £m	2023-24 Budget £m	2024-25 Budget £m
Enhancement Projects	247.0	155.8	146.9
Rail Development	2.0	–	–
Rail Services	1,453.0	1,083.1	965.7
Network Infrastructure	427.0	442.0	488.4
Total Rail Services	2,129.0	1,680.9	1,601.0
of which
Fiscal Resource	309.8	360.9	337.3
Non-cash	101.6	118.7	124.3
Capital	1,708.3	1,200.7	1,138.9
Financial Transactions (FTs)	–	–	–
UK Funded AME	9.2	0.6	0.5

 

[waverley47]

There was a £500m reduction in the rail capital budget from 22/23 to 23/24 with a further £60m reduction from 23/24 to 24/25.

Level 3	2022-23 Budget £m	2023-24 Budget £m	2024-25 Budget £m
Enhancement Projects	247.0	155.8	146.9
Rail Development	2.0	–	–
Rail Services	1,453.0	1,083.1	965.7
Network Infrastructure	427.0	442.0	488.4
Total Rail Services	2,129.0	1,680.9	1,601.0
of which
Fiscal Resource	309.8	360.9	337.3
Non-cash	101.6	118.7	124.3
Capital	1,708.3	1,200.7	1,138.9
Financial Transactions (FTs)	–	–	–
UK Funded AME	9.2	0.6	0.5

Yes but it's more complicated than that.

ScotGov finances capex for rail in two different groups.

The renewals fund (like for like replacements of life-expired assets) is agreed in five year blocks as part of the control periods, and is included in Network Infrastructure, which as you can see, is increasing to deal with climate change.

The enhancements fund is agreed on a case by case basis, and so for example the Carstairs enhancement is covered across the 2019-2023 budgets. Electrification usually isn't included in this.

Electrification technically comes under both of these, and so it's a bot opaque. However it's funded separately, outside the enhancements pipeline, with it's own funding scheme; that money is gifted to NR as a block grant, over X years until any given project is complete.

If inflation means that electrification is more expensive, that money won't increase to keep up with it, so the rate of electrification will decrease, however that money has already been granted. It's worth noting that the teams demolishing bridges in advance of electrification, modelling placement of OHLE structures, and insulating signalling are still hard at work, and they continue to plod along.

it's also worth remembering that the several very expensive projects are winding up this year, and several projects, such as Perth remodelling, have been deferred again. As a rule, reducing budgets doesn't necessarily mean anything apart from the amount spent this year is expected to be less than last year.

 

[92002]

That's on the assumption that any projects get funded. Many of the initial round of projects listed after the HS2 announcement were either already completed or had been cancelled.

However with the cancellation of HS2, other Projects were to be funded with the cash. So far I have not seen or heard of any more Barnett Consequentials. Which could of course be used to fund the outstanding electrification schemes..

 

[rf_ioliver]

In a nutshell, the Barnett formula sets out how government expenditure is split between England and the devolved governments. For every £1 of spend on devolved matters in England, the Scottish and Welsh governments and Northern Irish assembly are allocated (made up figures) £0.10, £0.05 and £0.03 based on the relative sizes of the populations.

Except in this case HS2 was an "England and Wales" project so only Scotland (and NI?) got the spoils of the Barnett formula. If it wasn't then Carmarthen to Aberystwyth would have been a reality

 

[lachlan]

Except in this case HS2 was an "England and Wales" project so only Scotland (and NI?) got the spoils of the Barnett formula. If it wasn't then Carmarthen to Aberystwyth would have been a reality

Indeed - there was much debate about HS2 being classed as beneficial to Wales but not Scotland (despite HS2 services running to Scotland, but not Wales)

 

[waverley47]

However with the cancellation of HS2, other Projects were to be funded with the cash. So far I have not seen or heard of any more Barnett Consequentials. Which could of course be used to fund the outstanding electrification schemes..

Yes. Many hundreds of other projects will definitely be funded with that money. There's a massive list. Hundreds of brand new, exciting projects are just waiting to be approved, like reopening the Blyth line and extending metrolink to Manchester Airport.

The current government is definitely has a track record of funding their infrastructure projects, so I wouldn't worry.

Despite its problems, HS2 was the purest form of investment in future growth. Not many projects can be paid for by future ticket revenue.

 

[Bald Rick]

If it wasn't then Carmarthen to Aberystwyth would have been a reality

Carmarthen to Aberystwyth is a reality. The new electric bus service.

 

[Nottingham59]

Despite its problems, HS2 was the purest form of investment in future growth. Not many projects can be paid for by future ticket revenue.

Unfortunately, the HS2 project was never going to be paid for with future ticket revenue. The 'cost' of these projects, as used to calculate the Benefit / Cost ratio, is calculated as the cost to build it reduced by the extra ticket revenue and reduced maintenance expense expected over the subsequent 60 years.

 

[Trainbike46]

Unfortunately, the HS2 project was never going to be paid for with future ticket revenue. The 'cost' of these projects, as used to calculate the Benefit / Cost ratio, is calculated as the cost to build it reduced by the extra ticket revenue and reduced maintenance expense expected over the subsequent 60 years.

It was to be paid for with the increased tax revenue from the economic growth it enabled. of course, if you don't build it, then it won't be enabling any economic growth, and that is why you can't just redirect the funding

 

[najaB]

It was to be paid for with the increased tax revenue from the economic growth it enabled. of course, if you don't build it, then it won't be enabling any economic growth, and that is why you can't just redirect the funding

Unless, of course, you can find projects with similar overall cost and economic benefit. Good luck with that one.

 

[waverley47]

Unfortunately, the HS2 project was never going to be paid for with future ticket revenue. The 'cost' of these projects, as used to calculate the Benefit / Cost ratio, is calculated as the cost to build it reduced by the extra ticket revenue and reduced maintenance expense expected over the subsequent 60 years.

I can tell you, (as someone that wrote many of the BCRs that underpinned projects such as Airdrie to Bathgate, the borders reopening, and going back a bit, wiring the ECML and the East London Line conversions) HS2 was in fact the only one of these I ever saw that was in fact paid for by future growth. The money to build it was borrowed against future tax receipts, and without the project being built, there isn't anything to borrow against, so there won't be any alternative projects.


HS2 paid for itself both as a standalone project, and as a greater network linked in to the WCML.

 

[aaronspence]

Question on Azuma trains that seems best placed here. Can they switch from electric to diesel whilst on the move? If not, since they don't stop at Dalmeny Im not sure I understand why they are doing this partial wiring.

 

[snowball]

Question on Azuma trains that seems best placed here. Can they switch from electric to diesel whilst on the move? If not, since they don't stop at Dalmeny Im not sure I understand why they are doing this partial wiring.

Yes they can.

 

[aaronspence]

Yes they can.

Ah brilliant thanks, Would swapping between the 2 modes a fair few times as it goes through Fife up to Aberdeen not be a bit of extra workload on the driver? Im wondering if they might just not bother and keep the diesel on.

 

[stuu]

Ah brilliant thanks, Would swapping between the 2 modes a fair few times as it goes through Fife up to Aberdeen not be a bit of extra workload on the driver? Im wondering if they might just not bother and keep the diesel on.

It's automatic, using a balise on the track

 

[Siemens Trains]

Question on Azuma trains that seems best placed here. Can they switch from electric to diesel whilst on the move? If not, since they don't stop at Dalmeny Im not sure I understand why they are doing this partial wiring.

Must admit I never considered the long distance inter-city type routes being the driving force behind this electrification project. I thought the idea was to reduce diesel emissions from local trains which run to Dunfermline and Kirkcaldy at around 4 journeys each way per hour. I'm not sure about LNER's timetable but I doubt it involves more than half a dozen Azuma trains each way over the course of a whole day.

 

[snowball]

Must admit I never considered the long distance inter-city type routes being the driving force behind this electrification project. I thought the idea was to reduce diesel emissions from local trains which run to Dunfermline and Kirkcaldy at around 4 journeys each way per hour. I'm not sure about LNER's timetable but I doubt it involves more than half a dozen Azuma trains each way over the course of a whole day.

I don't think Anglo-Scottish trains are a major part of the motivation for Scotland's decarbonisation programme, but if the Haymarket-Dalmeny and/or partial Fife electrifications were to go ahead, then trains to/from England would be the only ones that could benefit, pending the delivery of BEMUs which have not yet even been ordered.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

One assumes though, that even though not the driving force, once an electrification asset is there it will get used by other flows.

 

[zwk500]

One assumes though, that even though not the driving force, once an electrification asset is there it will get used by other flows.

In general yes, although the power supply spec can sometimes come into it (Newcastle-Edinburgh looking at you).

 

[Siemens Trains]

One assumes though, that even though not the driving force, once an electrification asset is there it will get used by other flows.

Yes, quite right. But I believe they're still trialling gantry designs to withstand weathering on the Forth Bridge and this section won't have wires for some time. Therefore services north of Dalmeny will need some 'reserve' power which isn't available on all train designs, in addition to the power supply spec being adequate as highlighted above.
Maybe not a huge problem though and perhaps Edinburgh-Glasgow electric trains may be able to use the new section south of Dalmeny, subject to some other enabling projects progressing.

 

[snowball]

Yes, quite right. But I believe they're still trialling gantry designs to withstand weathering on the Forth Bridge and this section won't have wires for some time. Therefore services north of Dalmeny will need some 'reserve' power which isn't available on all train designs, in addition to the power supply spec being adequate as highlighted above.

That's only one of several reasons why there will be no straight electrics in Fife for a number of years (where this year's slowdowns have considerably extended the meaning of "a number of years")

Maybe not a huge problem though and perhaps Edinburgh-Glasgow electric trains may be able to use the new section south of Dalmeny, subject to some other enabling projects progressing.

That would require the construction of the Almond chord and wiring between there and Winchburgh, neither of which is likely in the next few years.

 

[themiller]

I know it’s not strictly on topic but is there any news regarding the testing of OHL components on the Forth Bridge?

 

[Waverleystu]

With the outlook for electrification to Fife, Dundee and Aberdeen looking like it’s been pushed back to the 2030’s now it makes you wonder how long the HST’s will be kept in service too. With the Dalmeny electrification binned, no stock orders of BEMU to be seen it’s not looking good for the East Coast at all