DustyBin
Established Member
The Russians tried a Winter offensive in a number of places. They have gained a relatively small amount of ground, but with huge losses. At the current rate of progress, and assuming they can find enough men and equipment, it will take over twenty years to get the parts of Ukraine that they have annexed, let alone the whole country.
With more help from their allies, Ukraine should be able to continue to hold the current 'front lines'. However, it looks like they need a game changer or for the Russian government or military to unravel if they are to take back all of their territory.
Having said all that, it's doubtful how long Russia can actually continue to suffer the large losses of both men and equipment, but also logistics, before something goes wrong and they have to pull back somewhere.
For equipment, as more and more gets destroyed or damaged beyond quick repair, they are having to use older and less suitable equipment. As you don't leave the good stuff to last...
You should also take the new equipment production numbers from Russia with a very large pinch of salt. A lot of the 'new' main battle tanks are upgraded T72 tanks. Not new build T90 tanks.
Similarly, how many of their men that are left are well trained? Throwing convicts and conscripted men at the front line is one thing. But for the complex equipment like aircraft or other systems where it only works well if the operators know what they are doing, using convicts and conscripted men may mean that these systems are not effective.
At the moment, I don't think Russia is a serious threat to NATO. The European counties may have cut their military back far too much, but combined, they would still stop any invasion by Russia very quickly.
The difference being that NATO would be making very good use of its air power.
However, yes, NATO and the 'western' allies do need to increase funding for their militaries. That includes a big increase in ammunition and missile production.
All very good points.
The media love an opportunity to create hysteria, so it’s not at all surprising that they’ve picked up on recent comments from senior military figures and politicians. The West does however need to wake up and realise that the “peace dividend” is over, which is why these people are saying what they’re saying. We’ll see tax increases to fund defence spending long before we’re conscripted!