Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

[nw1]

The Lib Dems normally do well in the well heeled seats which is why I can see them take traditional Tory seats like Esher in the next election Wimbledon is 50/50 since it hasn't solely been a Tory seat.

Wimbledon being in urban London is surely very likely to be a Tory loss, more so even than Esher.

Esher would be a dead-cert loss if Raab was standing again, but perhaps less certain given it'll be (presumably) an unknown with a clean record as the Tory candidate.

I think the Tories will win back some by elections in the general election: definitely Mid Bedfordshire as the Labour winner is fighting Hitchin instead, possibly Tamworth and maybe Chesham and Amersham and N Shropshire from the Lib Dems.

Their result in Wellingborough was so crushingly bad for the Tories though that I now think Labour is probably virtually certain to hold that in the general election even if the polls narrow substantially and they regain some votes from Reform.

It's interesting. I would guess that the Tories might take back some of the more socially-conservative seats, which would include perhaps Tamworth, North Shropshire, and theoretically Wellingborough, but if Bone's partner stands again (as she appears to want to do) then I suspect they wouldn't win. Not sure about mid-Beds, if it's socially-conservative the Tories could take it back, if not Labour could hold it. It's telling that the Labour + Lib Dem vote in mid-Beds was a clear majority, which suggests it's less socially-conservative than some of the other byelection seats. Perhaps it is home to a lot of socially-liberal people who commute to London?

Kingswood is going of course, and being split between Rees-Mogg's blue-rinse seat and a new (and presumably Labour) Bristol East seat.

Chesham and Amersham is in the liberal, Remain-leaning home counties so would be surprised to see the Tories regain that. It's precisely the kind of seat the Tories seem likely to lose.

As for the country as a whole, I can see Labour taking back practically all of the Red Wall and making gains in larger, not especially socially-conservative southern towns such as Milton Keynes or Swindon, perhaps even places like Bournemouth due to the student population. Labour could well struggle in small-town England so perhaps won't retake places like Nuneaton, Rugby and the like. This might all suggest a small majority for Labour but less Tory seats than 2005 due to more Lib Dem gains in the home counties.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I have more than a suspicion that once the election is called there will be discussions between the Conservatives and Reform, which will result in Reform withdrawing its candidates in those seats that the Conservatives fear losing because of the presence of a Reform candidate. In exchange Reform will get concessions that they can use at the following general election, which might be sooner than expected if they save enough Conservative seats: it is probably not worth demanding things after this general election. Alternatively, they might just grift.

Not so sure that will be the case they wanted BREXIT last time and saw a clear route to getting it. The Tories are now too fragmented and a potential outcome is Reform acquire the Tory right wing element to boost there credibility for a 2029 election.

 

[johnnychips]

As this thread is about Labour, do you think many ex-Labour Red Wall voters would vote for Reform? I was surprised to see Reform do so well, as the current Conservative Party is pretty right-wing already.

 

[JamesT]

As this thread is about Labour, do you think many ex-Labour Red Wall voters would vote for Reform? I was surprised to see Reform do so well, as the current Conservative Party is pretty right-wing already.

I think solely categorising parties as left or right is overly simplistic. The perception of the red wall is that they are relatively conservative on social matters, but more in favour of government support economically. They supported Brexit as they didn’t think EU membership was benefiting them.
Labour has been the traditional party of the working class which aligned with those values, but over time have become more “metropolitan liberal” for want of another term.
Reform’s flagship policy is limiting immigration, but they also want to spend more on healthcare and support fracking to reduce energy costs.

 

[johnnychips]

I think solely categorising parties as left or right is overly simplistic. The perception of the red wall is that they are relatively conservative on social matters, but more in favour of government support economically. They supported Brexit as they didn’t think EU membership was benefiting them.
Labour has been the traditional party of the working class which aligned with those values, but over time have become more “metropolitan liberal” for want of another term.
Reform’s flagship policy is limiting immigration, but they also want to spend more on healthcare and support fracking to reduce energy costs.

Thank you for your reasoned reply. Do you think they will be able to get this message across in a significant way that the electorate understand it? Obviously they have had success in the by-elections, but there would have been a lot of local news and focus there. Do Reform use social media a lot?

 

[317 forever]

The swing from Conservative to Labour in Wellingborough is 2nd largest ever in terms of Con to Lab swing (28.5%), it didn't quite beat the 29.1% swing in Dudley West in 1994.

I thought the swing in Kingswood was pretty underwhelming for Labour though and it suggests Jacob Rees Mogg is pretty likely to hold his seat in the general election.

I think the reason for the smaller swing at Kingswood was that, unlike many other by-elections including Wellingborough, the Tory MP had not left or been forced out in disgrace.

 

[nw1]

Some good publicity for Starmer from an unlikely source on the Torygraph front page (saw it in the shop) this morning, which discusses Starmer criticising Trump for undermining NATO countries.

 

[jfollows]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ves-keir-starmer-labour-pmqs-uk-politics-live reports:

Coral (betting) has the Workers Party (George Galloway) odds-on at 1-2 to win the Rochdale by-election, which takes place tomorrow.

Labour, who currently hold the seat, are second best in the betting at 6-4, while the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are 33-1.

Labour’s campaign has collapsed without central support and Reform UK does not appear to have a message, whereas Galloway has a message for pro-Palestinian Muslim’s that a vote for him will be bad for Keir Starmer who loves Israel. It’s one he’s used before.

 

[Acfb]

It's still possible Ali could win although not really likely so we're probably looking at Galloway winning with ~35% on a low turnout. I wouldn't overstate the whole suspension thing but obviously there will be no proper GOTV.

I had a weird feeling about this one from the get go.


I'd guess something like

Galloway 35%
Lab 30%
LD 16%
Con 10%
RFM 5%
Other 4%

Turnout 30%

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ves-keir-starmer-labour-pmqs-uk-politics-live reports:

Labour’s campaign has collapsed without central support and Reform UK does not appear to have a message, whereas Galloway has a message for pro-Palestinian Muslim’s that a vote for him will be bad for Keir Starmer who loves Israel. It’s one he’s used before.

He's a one man band and is only interested in his own self promotion so will be one of those one offs we see in British Politics

 

[Busaholic]

He's a one man band and is only interested in his own self promotion so will be one of those one offs we see in British Politics

In Oswald Galloway's case, one is too many.

 

[nw1]

Galloway is someone whom anyone truly left-wing or liberal will abhor.

Him winning will darken the name of Rochdale, so I hope its residents realise this.

And I speak as someone with a lot of sympathy for the Palestinian cause and abhor what Netanyahu is doing. I just despise Galloway, for a whole host of reasons most of which are quite well-known.

 

[Gloster]

It might be hoped that if Galloway wins it could bring a few people to their senses by making them realise just what really happens when they indulge in political posturing and virtue signalling: those who really are your enemy get in to power. But I am not optimistic. (United we stand; divided we fall.)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It might be hoped that if Galloway wins it could bring a few people to their senses by making them realise just what really happens when they indulge in political posturing and virtue signalling: those who really are your enemy get in to power. But I am not optimistic. (United we stand; divided we fall.)

Pretty unlikely he will win my moneys on Azhar Ali as he is sincere and says what most of the local population want to hear and they want to make a point to Labour now.

 

[Kite159]

And no doubt if Azhar Ali does win he will be quietly readmitted to the party in a couple months time.

 

[Acfb]

And no doubt if Azhar Ali does win he will be quietly readmitted to the party in a couple months time.

I doubt this actually, Paul Waugh will probably be imposed as the candidate for the GE.

 

[DarloRich]

And no doubt if Azhar Ali does win he will be quietly readmitted to the party in a couple months time.

or more likely dropped for the GE.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Re-admitting him to the party is possibly the worst thing they could ever do as it would show to many that they are still very much at home to racist bullies and other assorted nastiness

 

[Busaholic]

I doubt this actually, Paul Waugh will probably be imposed as the candidate for the GE.

That certainly wouldn't be a bad choice for Labour, and, assuming he won, he wouldn't remain a backbencher for long, again assuming a Labour government.

 

[Thirteen]

If Galloway wins, he'll probably lose his seat in the GE.

He's the sort of person who needs to retire from politics.

 

[birchesgreen]

Galloway got a public endorsement from... Nick Griffin.

 

[nw1]

Galloway got a public endorsement from... Nick Griffin.

Nuff said.

 

[Busaholic]

Nuff said.

Takes one fascist to know another. Galloway has pronounced his relationship with Farage as akin to Churchill and Stalin, though which is which isn't delineated. However, Galloway is already crowing that once he wins Rochdale he'll join Churchill in having won four different parliamentary seats for four different parties.

 

[Gloster]

Takes one fascist to know another. Galloway has pronounced his relationship with Farage as akin to Churchill and Stalin, though which is which isn't delineated. However, Galloway is already crowing that once he wins Rochdale he'll join Churchill in having won four different parliamentary seats for four different parties.

Wrong. He has won them for one person: himself (and his ego).

 

[brad465]

This letter from him has been doing the rounds that was a campaign letter in the constituency:

(Image of George Galloway's Rochdale campaign letter)

Two particular points of interest that I think are cringe: firstly he's effectively endorsed Primark, and secondly, his Rochdale equivalent of Trump's slogan.

Apparently this is also not a blanket-constituency letter, apparently there is another letter doing the rounds that is specifically targeted at Muslims in the constituency and is, unsurprisingly, trying to rally support for a protest vote on Gaza. This suggests some rather suspicious judgements were made based on street and/or ethnicity/background in deciding who got what letter (either that or they all got both and it shows very contradicting ambitions).

EDIT: This is the letter targeted towards Muslims in the constituency by Galloway:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1763225268674527367

Look at the filth Galloway is pumping out in Rochdale.

(Image of campaign letter from George Galloway targeted towards voters in Rochdale of the Muslim faith)

 

[Acfb]

39.7% turnout.

Looks like Galloway has won with Independent Dave Tully possibly having come 2nd.

 

[Busaholic]

39.7% turnout.

Looks like Galloway has won with Independent Dave Tully possibly having come 2nd.

So 60.3% of the electorate found themselves unable to support any candidate, a fact that will conveniently forgotten by the little man in the big hat in his victory rant. I do hope the TV screen will be able to get that enormous chip on his shoulder in vision too.

 

[Flying Snail]

He is an utter dose of a man but he really knows how to exploit an opportunity, Labour handed him an open goal with their endless "antisemitism" self flagellation.

I hate populism and the destructive ego maniacs that exploit it but until the mainstream politicians learn that on the surface at least a "straight speaker" such as Galloway sounds far more real and genuine than the scripted doublespeak gaslighting and the pushing of radical woke social ideologies that is the norm from all of the big parties.

His letter to the ummah omits the bit about standing up to allowing grooming gangs, not such a vote winner in that community perhaps?

 

[Busaholic]

He is an utter dose of a man but he really knows how to exploit an opportunity, Labour handed him an open goal with their endless "antisemitism" self flagellation.

I hate populism and the destructive ego maniacs that exploit it but until the mainstream politicians learn that on the surface at least a "straight speaker" such as Galloway sounds far more real and genuine than the scripted doublespeak gaslighting and the pushing of radical woke social ideologies that is the norm from all of the big parties.

His letter to the ummah omits the bit about standing up to allowing grooming gangs, not such a vote winner in that community perhaps?

He's an extremely intelligent man, which not all populist narcissistic egomaniacs are (Trump for one isn't), and he decided to be on his best behaviour tonight, if you ignore the Putinesque way he didn't arrive at the count until a while after it was ready to be declared.

Labour as a whole really does have to wake up to what the Israeli government is doing in Gaza and call it out for what it so obviously is. Starmer needn't obsess that somehow Corbyn and co. will get the hearts and minds of a significant number of Labour voters again this side of a General Election. This is him listening too much to Mandleson and Blair, and is almost paranoid.

I agree with you on the woke social ideology stuff in general, particularly on gender, which has now gone way too far and needs rewinding to remove the obvious nonsenses.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

When Galloway stood (and failed to win) in Batley & Spen a few years back in the by-election prompted by Tracy Brabin becoming West Yorkshire Mayor, he showed himself to be all about, well, himself. He and his crew left their posters and banners up all over the constituency for ages, leaving the place looking even more untidy than usual. Given that his ego has been boosted by this win, I expect that his mug will be plastered all over Rochdale too. That there's only a matter of months to the General Election is some small mercy at least.