Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[ZL exile]

Another order in the coming years to think about, is eventually 22x will need replacing on the XC network, they are now past their half life. As well as the Scottish HST’s will need replacement, then the Welsh Mk IV sets, although they still have some life, they won’t last forever. In an ideal world a lot of these could be an identical bi-mode product that could be built on a rolling basis. If you put these with the other fleets above and you would have a programme to keep 2 or 3 plants in use in the country.

 

[Invincible]

Its all well and good saying that however..

Its only when you look at it from an things such age perspective that you see what actually needs replacing and what can wait. 150s are the fleet closest to end of life so if any new trains are needed right now its Northerns.

Whereas 16x and 465/466s could easily keep until 2030s when they will actually be end of life and require replacing.

Orders need spreading out otherwise the factories will keep having the same issues as they are facing now and even when Northerns fleet is replaced, that is not going to stop some factories from going under.

From the DfT letter in January https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/substantial-gap-in-new-train-deliveries.263242/
Final tenders yet to be sent out.

South Eastern Core order between 350 and 570 vehicles with an option for an additional 70 vehicles. Indicative contract award date Early 2025 but considering scope to bring forward to December 2024 expected delivery date Autumn 2027
Chiltern Between 20-70 new or converted units (nominally 90 vehicles) Indicative contract award date Early 2025 expected delivery date End 2028 / early 2029
Transpennine Express 29 units up to 195 metres in length with an option for a further 26 units. (nominal 174 to 330 vehicles) Indicative contract award date Mid 2025 expected delivery date Mid 2029
Northern Up to 450 units (nominally around 1000 vehicles) Indicative contract award date 2025 expected delivery date 2029
"Great Western are conducting initial market engagement on options for replacing their class 15X and 16X fleet which are approaching life expiry. Any proposals would be subject to business case approval and the outcome of any competition"

Dates will not help Derby (or Newton Aycliffe) unless the dates for say South Eastern EMUs are brought forward?
Ideally delivery dates should be spread out to avoid another "boom and bust" in 2027/9?

 

[Chester1]

Another order in the coming years to think about, is eventually 22x will need replacing on the XC network, they are now past their half life. As well as the Scottish HST’s will need replacement, then the Welsh Mk IV sets, although they still have some life, they won’t last forever. In an ideal world a lot of these could be an identical bi-mode product that could be built on a rolling basis. If you put these with the other fleets above and you would have a programme to keep 2 or 3 plants in use in the country.

Scotrail and TfW don't plan on replacing either fleet until at least 2030. XC fleet replacement would probably be mid 2030s when the 22X are about 30 years old.

Even if these dates were brought forward I cannot see the Scottish government under the SNP agreeing to a joint rolling stock project.

 

[Class 170101]

Am I being cynical to say that Rishi would like to see some of the work go to India perhaps to help Mrs Murty (wife)?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Am I being cynical to say that Rishi would like to see some of the work go to India perhaps to help Mrs Murty (wife)?

I doubt Rishi's wife has anything to do with Alstom India (Alstom has a substantial business there).

 

[Invincible]

https://www.infosys.com/newsroom/press-releases/2010/engineering-research-development-power.html

There has been a link between Alston and Infosys in the past!

 

[Chester1]

https://www.infosys.com/newsroom/press-releases/2010/engineering-research-development-power.html

There has been a link between Alston and Infosys in the past!

Rishi Sunak's wife owns less than 1% of Infosys and her family collectively less than 4%. His father in law founded Infosys but his share was diluted as it grew and he has sold most of his shares due to his age. Its quite a stretch that infosys having a minor role in any manufacturing project would have any effect on Rishi's decision making. Infosys gets mentioned a lot in the media to remind people he is much richer than us and that he has links to a foreign country.....

 

[Meerkat]

If a factory is closed get Network Rail/GBR/whatever to buy it and then lease it to whomever wins major contracts, and short term let it in between.

 

[Wolfie]

Its all well and good saying that however..

Its only when you look at it from an things such age perspective that you see what actually needs replacing and what can wait. 150s are the fleet closest to end of life so if any new trains are needed right now its Northerns.

Whereas 16x and 465/466s could easily keep until 2030s when they will actually be end of life and require replacing.

Orders need spreading out otherwise the factories will keep having the same issues as they are facing now and even when Northerns fleet is replaced, that is not going to stop some factories from going under.

I'm not sure that this is wholly accurate in current conditions. It relies on past precedent but what has changed, particularly with respect to EMUs albeit DMUs are impacted too, is the rapid development of electronics. Obsolescence and non-availability of replacements for key components could kill some classes significantly earlier than the classic end of life date.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure that this is wholly accurate in current conditions. It relies on past precedent but what has changed, particularly with respect to EMUs albeit DMUs are impacted too, is the rapid development of electronics. Obsolescence and non-availability of replacements for key components could kill some classes significantly earlier than the classic end of life date.

The other thing which could happen is the scraping of some end coaches to allow longer units to be created. For example (and I'm not suggesting this would ever be the case, however it highlights how such a change could result in them being more useful elsewhere else) if there was an 11 coach 22x set (not 5+6 but just a starting 11 coach train) it would have a similar capacity to a 9 coach train formed of three 159 sets.

Whilst that would bring about loss of flexibility and other complications, it does highlight that if they were longer sets then they could be more useful than they currently are.

With longer units being used on lower speed routes I suspect there could be options to disable (or even maybe remove) some of the engines to make them more fuel efficient.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

https://www.infosys.com/newsroom/press-releases/2010/engineering-research-development-power.html

There has been a link between Alstom and Infosys in the past!

Rishi Sunak's wife owns less than 1% of Infosys and her family collectively less than 4%. His father in law founded Infosys but his share was diluted as it grew and he has sold most of his shares due to his age. Its quite a stretch that infosys having a minor role in any manufacturing project would have any effect on Rishi's decision making. Infosys gets mentioned a lot in the media to remind people he is much richer than us and that he has links to a foreign country.....

The Alstom in the 2010 press release is its power business which was sold to GE (US) in 2015.
In any case the Infosys business is in IT consultancy and software development, not in manufacturing.

 

[Mikey C]

From the DfT letter in January https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/substantial-gap-in-new-train-deliveries.263242/
Final tenders yet to be sent out.

South Eastern Core order between 350 and 570 vehicles with an option for an additional 70 vehicles. Indicative contract award date Early 2025 but considering scope to bring forward to December 2024 expected delivery date Autumn 2027
Chiltern Between 20-70 new or converted units (nominally 90 vehicles) Indicative contract award date Early 2025 expected delivery date End 2028 / early 2029
Transpennine Express 29 units up to 195 metres in length with an option for a further 26 units. (nominal 174 to 330 vehicles) Indicative contract award date Mid 2025 expected delivery date Mid 2029
Northern Up to 450 units (nominally around 1000 vehicles) Indicative contract award date 2025 expected delivery date 2029
"Great Western are conducting initial market engagement on options for replacing their class 15X and 16X fleet which are approaching life expiry. Any proposals would be subject to business case approval and the outcome of any competition"

Dates will not help Derby (or Newton Aycliffe) unless the dates for say South Eastern EMUs are brought forward?
Ideally delivery dates should be spread out to avoid another "boom and bust" in 2027/9?

Seems like a glut of units to be built in the late 2020s, considering the HS2 trains will start production then too.

A shame that the Northern order couldn't have been brought forward, seeing how old the Sprinters are, though whether that order would have gone to Derby anyway is debatable.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A shame that the Northern order couldn't have been brought forward, seeing how old the Sprinters are, though whether that order would have gone to Derby anyway is debatable.

I should think both sides (TOC and potential suppliers) are struggling with settling on a specification that covers the whole requirement, together with the number needed for each type of operation.
It's not something you can pick off a shelf.
Though this looks like a contender if it can be re-engineered for UK gauge.

Europe’s first intercity battery train unveiled

Hitachi Rail and Trenitalia have unveiled its first intercity battery train that will enter service in Southern Italy this summer.

www.railwaypro.com

Trenitalia has unveiled its first long-distance trainset which can operate on electric, diesel or battery power.

 

[Invincible]

I should think both sides (TOC and potential suppliers) are struggling with settling on a specification that covers the whole requirement, together with the number needed for each type of operation.
It's not something you can pick off a shelf.
Though this looks like a contender if it can be re-engineered for UK gauge.

Europe’s first intercity battery train unveiled

Hitachi Rail and Trenitalia have unveiled its first intercity battery train that will enter service in Southern Italy this summer.

www.railwaypro.com

GWR and TfW are gathering experience on the Class 230 hybrid and fast charge ex LU trains. Which may end up giving someone an order to convert more ex LU trains to 230s for branch lines to replace 15x and 16x trains.
But looks like the mainline replacements for 15x and 16x trains will be new build hybrid trains

The Italian government are helping Hitachi gain an advantage in hybrid technology, possible new Hitachi trains for UK will be built in Italy if the UK factory closes.
But other train manufacturers are also catching up on hybrid technology and the reduced cost of batteries.

Possible a small diesel engine may be required as an occasional "range extender" as a backup top up generator for batteries on long routes (like the electric London taxi uses a small Volvo engine as a backup).

 

[hwl]

I should think both sides (TOC and potential suppliers) are struggling with settling on a specification that covers the whole requirement, together with the number needed for each type of operation.
It's not something you can pick off a shelf.
Though this looks like a contender if it can be re-engineered for UK gauge.

Europe’s first intercity battery train unveiled

Hitachi Rail and Trenitalia have unveiled its first intercity battery train that will enter service in Southern Italy this summer.

www.railwaypro.com

You forgot to mention sticker shock when they see the price tag...
Rolling stock inflation is / has been very high recently.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

You forgot to mention sticker shock when they see the price tag...
Rolling stock inflation is / has been very high recently.

And especially if it has to be expensively redesigned to fit the UK railway.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Hitachi wouldn't do that. They would try adding a tri-mode powertrain to their existing UK platforms.

 

[D365]

GWR and TfW are gathering experience on the Class 230 hybrid and fast charge ex LU trains. Which may end up giving someone an order to convert more ex LU trains to 230s for branch lines to replace 15x and 16x trains.

Other than the ex-LNWR 230s, it’s unlikely to be more D Stock carriages. Don’t forget that Vivarail and Eversholt had announced a plan to fit the Class 321 ’Renatus’ units with battery technology.

 

[hwl]

And especially if it has to be expensively redesigned to fit the UK railway.

Hitachi wouldn't do that. They would try adding a tri-mode powertrain to their existing UK platforms.

Most of us know that - Hitachi have already effectively priced themselves out of follow on 8xx orders especially multi-mode.

 

[Nym]

Other than the ex-LNWR 230s, it’s unlikely to be more D Stock carriages. Don’t forget that Vivarail and Eversholt had announced a plan to fit the Class 321 ’Renatus’ units with battery technology.

There’s also plenty of space under the Class 350/2 units…

 

[D365]

There’s also plenty of space under the Class 350/2 units…

Now, now, I don’t want to give too much away.

 

[Dan G]

In what sane world are the early electrostars not deemed good enough to go through to the early 2040s?

The expected lifetime on rail vehicles is 30-35 years; typically by that age overhauling them to as-new condition isn't cost-effective. That's compounded by technology advances e.g. Electrostars have a relatively high weight compared to modern vehicles, rendering them more expensive to operate.

So you would expect Litchuch Lane to have something like ~70% of all future rolling stock manufacturing?
Well that will functionally kill the other three manufacturing plants, and their operators would scream about unfair practices in the interim.

There are around 6,000 Turbostars/Electrostars/Aventras in service (or built, at least!). I wouldn't be surprised if that's around 70% of the British MU vehicle population, especially if 125mph and upward sets are excluded. Maybe more!

Britain seems to be something of a niche market for rail vehicles, with its loading guage smaller than those used in the EU. It's not surprising that a drawing board to finished vehicle manufacturing plant has consistently produced tender-winning vehicles.

CAF got in by offering a DMU when Bombardier decided it was more profitable to focus on EMUs. Obvs Hitachi set up shop for the IEP and Siemens for tube trains.

Maybe Alstom could have developed a multi-mode Aventra; it seems they considered the gap until the expected orders for such vehicles (Northern), the risk of not winning, and possibly the cost-effectiveness of just mothballing Derby (probably with the intention of complete closure after the HS2 build) as all pointing towards mothballing over developing a new vehicle.

Makes one wonder what the future of British rail vehicles is.

Other than the ex-LNWR 230s, it’s unlikely to be more D Stock carriages. Don’t forget that Vivarail and Eversholt had announced a plan to fit the Class 321 ’Renatus’ units with battery technology.

GWR bought the available D stock trains, 67 vehicles, specifically to build a fleet of class 230 if the battery version proves viable. Old steel-bodied BREL EMUs, and Desiros, are likely too heavy to be successful battery-powered trains.

 

[Nym]

Now, now, I don’t want to give too much away.

Merely an observation that Porterbrook actually do something about claiming to be innovative rather than just claiming it. (And that the non-pan trailer on the 350/2 is basically empty, with some decent amount of space under the driving cars, and the units are already fitted with a packet data connection throughout so no need for the likes of Wolverton to go fitting ECNs)...

 

[Dan G]

Just to clarify something else; Newport, Goole, and Newtown Aycliffe are largely assembly sites, not manufacturing plants (as Derby is/was) (although plenty of the parts being assembled are built elsewhere in the UK). British trains don't get exported as they're too small. Derby, being CAD to completed train, can and did design vehicles for export. The assembly sites can't (and won't).

There's no reason why Newport, Goole, and Newtown Aycliffe won't close after they have finished the projects they were built for, although CAF Newport has more than a fighting chance of staying open for the long-term to build tri-mode Civity UK trains. The LNER order would tide them over until production for the Northern tender starts, if it plays out that way.

 

[Snow1964]

You forgot to mention sticker shock when they see the price tag...
Rolling stock inflation is / has been very high recently.

Although part of that is the UK method of ordering small batches of non standard trains, or ones with changes which causes complications, delays and extra cost.

C2C didn't they just took 12 Anglia spec trains and painted them differently, straight into service.

That is why many European countries now just have big framework orders and just draw down batches and fit them out as required. Modern trains are complicated, and to some extent like airliners you either buy standard design or you wait an eternity and hope it gets certified and works.

Northern has right idea with its big framework order (although with some 150s already 37 years old, is about 3 years late), but why do Chiltern and GWR need anything different. They all need a regional train and a local train. Should all be asking what is available, 2 bodyshell designs, same power train options (electric drive with raft that either holds diesel or battery) and a pantograph transformer car that can power it and charge batteries.

The idea that Operators need to draw up and invent a complete spec for a train is wrong, should be a we need a train to carry X suitable for journeys of 3 hours and variant for local services, what can you offer. Leave manufacturer to do the detailed spec,just specify basics, usually get cheaper product, or at least something delivered in 2 years instead of waiting 5-7 years (remember many of those trains still not in service were ordered 2017-2019)

 

[hwl]

Although part of that is the UK method of ordering small batches of non standard trains, or ones with changes which causes complications, delays and extra cost.

C2C didn't they just took 12 Anglia spec trains and painted them differently, straight into service.

That is why many European countries now just have big framework orders and just draw down batches and fit them out as required.

Most European countries have been using framework contracts for a very long time.

Modern trains are complicated, and to some extent like airliners you either buy standard design or you wait an eternity and hope it gets certified and works.

Northern has right idea with its big framework order (although with some 150s already 37 years old, is about 3 years late), but why do Chiltern and GWR need anything different. They all need a regional train and a local train.

What is the difference between a regional and local? Realistically everything in these categories needs max 100mph and 1/4 & 3/4 doors to deal with passenger numbers at busier stations (e.g. Manchester Piccadilly P13/14, the rest is seat layout choice?

Should all be asking what is available, 2 bodyshell designs, same power train options (electric drive with raft that either holds diesel or battery) and a pantograph transformer car that can power it and charge batteries.

The idea that Operators need to draw up and invent a complete spec for a train is wrong, should be a we need a train to carry X suitable for journeys of 3 hours and variant for local services, what can you offer. Leave manufacturer to do the detailed spec,

That frequently has worked out well hence the need to specify as none of them can be trusted.

just specify basics, usually get cheaper product, or at least something delivered in 2 years instead of waiting 5-7 years (remember many of those trains still not in service were ordered 2017-2019)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Most European countries have been using framework contracts for a very long time.

Framework contracts don't always work, as you lose the competitive edge on future orders.
You also have to be confident that the framework spec is the right one for the longer term.
Technology development will also obsolete designs over an extended period.
From the supplier's point of view a framework contract doesn't guarantee any orders.

NR negotiated regional framework contracts for CP5 electrification - which turned out to be pointless with the DfT changes in policy.
NR also often didn't call off work on the basis of the contracts it had negotiated.
HS2 Ltd was negotiating framework contracts for Phase 2 (oops...).

 

[Trainman40083]

Framework contracts don't always work, as you lose the competitive edge on future orders.
You also have to be confident that the framework spec is the right one for the longer term.
Technology development will also obsolete designs over an extended period.
From the supplier's point of view a framework contract doesn't guarantee any orders.

NR negotiated regional framework contracts for CP5 electrification - which turned out to be pointless with the DfT changes in policy.
NR also often didn't call off work on the basis of the contracts it had negotiated.
HS2 Ltd was negotiating framework contracts for Phase 2 (oops...).

I still think phase 3 will happen . No doing so could bring no end of problems with capacity. Still to build 54 HS2 train sets and refurbishment of Pendolinos. Is that twice as many trains then?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Although part of that is the UK method of ordering small batches of non standard trains, or ones with changes which causes complications, delays and extra cost.

C2C didn't they just took 12 Anglia spec trains and painted them differently, straight into service.

That is why many European countries now just have big framework orders and just draw down batches and fit them out as required. Modern trains are complicated, and to some extent like airliners you either buy standard design or you wait an eternity and hope it gets certified and works.

Northern has right idea with its big framework order (although with some 150s already 37 years old, is about 3 years late), but why do Chiltern and GWR need anything different. They all need a regional train and a local train. Should all be asking what is available, 2 bodyshell designs, same power train options (electric drive with raft that either holds diesel or battery) and a pantograph transformer car that can power it and charge batteries.

The idea that Operators need to draw up and invent a spec for a train is wrong, should be a we need a train to carry X suitable for journeys of 3 hours and variant for local services, what can you offer. Leave manufacturer to do the spec just specify basics, usually get cheaper product, or at least something delivered in 2 years instead of waiting 5-7 years (remember many of those trains still not in service were ordered 2017-2019)

Absolutely spot on this situation has been created by allowing each operator to do its own thing and there is now a risk we end up with no assembly plants let alone manufacturing capability. Going forward a single design to replace all the 15x vehicles should be policy be they bimodes or even straight diesels.

 

[JonathanH]

Going forward a single design to replace all the 15x vehicles should be policy be they bimodes or even straight diesels.

Even though the 150s, 156s, 158s, 165s etc were built for different purposes? One lease company as well? A big risk it wouldn't be Derby or even in the UK.

I understand that a single design can be worthwhile, 377s and the current operation on Southern are testament to that, but it isn't without its compromises.