Is the Heathrow Express a viable, worthwhile service?

[jfowkes]

To my understanding, paths and platform space are at a premium at Paddington.

Heathrow Express is still twice as fast as the Elizabeth line but is also twice the price and only serves Paddington - I imagine the Elizabeth line must have severely cut into Heathrow Express passenger numbers?

If the above is true, is it still a viable service? Could the space it takes up be better utilised?

 

[Horizon22]

To my understanding, paths and platform space are at a premium at Paddington.

Heathrow Express is still twice as fast as the Elizabeth line but is also twice the price and only serves Paddington - I imagine the Elizabeth line must have severely cut into Heathrow Express passenger numbers?

If the above is true, is it still a viable service? Could the space it takes up be better utilised?

In short - and in my opinion - "No", to the first question and "Yes" to the latter in your final paragraph.

It takes up 4tph fast paths on the GWML and 2 platforms (it it possible with 1, but tighter) at Paddington which could be better utilised by GWR for long-distance services. Yes the Elizabeth line has severely cut into HeX numbers.

But ultimately until Heathrow Express / HAL see it not making money, they will keep going with it as they have the paths unless NR has a serious intervention, which seems unlikely. One issue would be the Elizabeth line taking the other paths as the Relief lines are pretty much at capacity Paddington - Airport Junction, but Heathrow would still need extra services which would necessitate some sort of crossing moves to make it work and then you defeat the point of those 4tph paths.

One answer might be 2tph fast from Paddington (lower level) to Heathrow via Ladbroke Grove onto the Main Lines, and another option is the Southern or Western link to Heathrow, but that's firmly in the "speculative discussion" category!

So yes it's viable, but is it worthwhile? Doubtful.

 

[The Planner]

HeX have a very different contractural arrangement I believe than normal, it would be quite a difficult process to take them out.

 

[Horizon22]

HeX have a very different contractural arrangement I believe than normal, it would be quite a difficult process to take them out.

The train services are also run on management contract by GWR too, so if GWR aren't too bothered by the pathing (and they certainly don't have the IET fleet capacity to run more trains currently), the status quo will remain for the foreseeable.

 

[Clarence Yard]

We have discussed this many times before. The value of this service to Heathrow Airport Limited is not just as a passenger service - it is an airport facility which can be charged to airlines.

The chances that these paths could just be taken off them are nil. HAL are serious players who operate at senior Governmental level.

 

[Horizon22]

We have discussed this many times before. The value of this service to Heathrow Airport Limited is not just as a passenger service - it is an airport facility which can be charged to airlines.

The chances that these paths could just be taken off them are nil. HAL are serious players who operate at senior Governmental level.

I appreciate all of that, but is that for the benefit for rail users more widely? I guess that's the discussion - even if its unlikely to change due to the clout they wield.

 

[Clarence Yard]

The service is not designed for the benefit of rail users more widely. It is designed to get people into Paddington and disperse from there, not necessarily by public transport for some of its more significant users.

The most bizarre pick up I ever saw was when the gold leaf Hummer was about a few years ago - I believe they only went a mile or so away from Paddington!

 

[Horizon22]

The service is not designed for the benefit of rail users more widely. It is designed to get people into Paddington and disperse from there, not necessarily by public transport for some of its more significant users.

Which I could understand prior to the Elizabeth line. But now you can be run to the heart of London (TCR), the City (Liverpool Street) or Canary Wharf on one direct train (less tph for the latter and none from T5). Obviously there is still the type of passenger who loathes public transport and wants to get into a taxi as quickly as possible (still a fair walk from P6/7 at Paddington) but the usage case must have significantly diminished now.

 

[Snow1964]

Yes the space at Paddington could be better utilised nowadays without it, there are many outer suburban services that are rather squeezed out because of it.

However financially probably still justifies its existence (although a lot of that is the airport plugging it and selling tickets in arrivals, but not offering the alternative rail tickets on Elizabeth line or Piccadilly line

 

[HSTEd]

Will Heathrow Express be compelled to stop at Old Oak Common if it survives that long?

After all, if everything else is stopping, can HEx really get out of it? It would be a pathing nightmare

 

[PGAT]

Will Heathrow Express be compelled to stop at Old Oak Common if it survives that long?

After all, if everything else is stopping, can HEx really get out of it? It would be a pathing nightmare

They would be foolish not to

 

[The Planner]

Will Heathrow Express be compelled to stop at Old Oak Common if it survives that long?

After all, if everything else is stopping, can HEx really get out of it? It would be a pathing nightmare

HeX are incredibly anti OOC from what I hear.

 

[Dr Hoo]

If Paddington is supposedly 'full' can anyone confirm that Network Rail has declared it to be 'Congested Infrastructure"?

It doesn't feel that way to me intuitively. Further Fast/Main paths for an open access Carmarthen service have been approved, I believe. During the Nuneham Bridge collapse many additional freight services were fitted in on the Slow/Relief lines for an extended period.

It takes up 4tph fast paths on the GWML and 2 platforms (it it possible with 1, but tighter) at Paddington which could be better utilised by GWR for long-distance services.

Such as? Has GWR (or the DfT) seriously proposed such services?

I appreciate all of that, but is that for the benefit for rail users more widely? I guess that's the discussion - even if it's unlikely to change due to the clout they wield.

I just kinda think that a reasonable quality dedicated service between the UK's largest airport and its second-busiest station (with a wide range of forward travel options), in the capital city, sounds like a fairly good idea in many languages.

Which I could understand prior to the Elizabeth line. But now you can be run to the heart of London (TCR), the City (Liverpool Street) or Canary Wharf on one direct train (less tph for the latter and none from T5). Obviously there is still the type of passenger who loathes public transport and wants to get into a taxi as quickly as possible (still a fair walk from P6/7 at Paddington) but the usage case must have significantly diminished now.

Whilst the Elizabeth Line is handy for where it goes directly there are many parts of Central London that it doesn't serve. Given the many gaps that remain in lift access at busy Underground stations a fast train to Paddington linking with a taxi has many attractions.

Yes the space at Paddington could be better utilised nowadays without it, there are many outer suburban services that are rather squeezed out because of it.

Could you elaborate on what these are (presumably in addition to 'long-distance' services, above)?

Paddington has 13 'surface' platforms (i.e. not Elizabeth Line), of which 2 are taken by Heathrow Express, leaving 11 for GWR. This seems to be the same as King's Cross. There seem to be 12 GWR departures from these 11 platforms in a peak hour (1700-1759). Well done; that's one more than King's Cross.

 

[Horizon22]

If Paddington is supposedly 'full' can anyone confirm that Network Rail has declared it to be 'Congested Infrastructure"?

It doesn't feel that way to me intuitively. Further Fast/Main paths for an open access Carmarthen service have been approved, I believe. During the Nuneham Bridge collapse many additional freight services were fitted in on the Slow/Relief lines for an extended period.

Which caused considerable delays to Elizabeth line services on a daily basis.

Such as? Has GWR (or the DfT) seriously proposed such services?

I just kinda think that a reasonable quality dedicated service between the UK's largest airport and its second-busiest station (with a wide range of forward travel options), in the capital city, sounds like a fairly good idea in many languages.

GWR are probably happy enough with the status quo right now, and the DfT seems to be wanting to shrink the railway, but the potential is definitely there.

The station is only the "second busiest" because of the impact of the Elizabeth line. Paddington was towards the bottom of the top 10 otherwise. Does the Elizabeth line not count as "dedicated" or does it have to be non-stop for you? Not sure what is real quality about HeX these days considering it's just a glorified 387!

Whilst the Elizabeth Line is handy for where it goes directly there are many parts of Central London that it doesn't serve. Given the many gaps that remain in lift access at busy Underground stations a fast train to Paddington linking with a taxi has many attractions.

London is obviously huge, but the Elizabeth line is fully step-free and Paddington is still available if you want a taxi (albeit slightly further to the rank).

Paddington has 13 'surface' platforms (i.e. not Elizabeth Line), of which 2 are taken by Heathrow Express, leaving 11 for GWR. This seems to be the same as King's Cross. There seem to be 12 GWR departures from these 11 platforms in a peak hour (1700-1759). Well done; that's one more than King's Cross.

Which could be at least 2 more with Platform 6/7 available. Comparing to peak which has a rather more varied pattern is slightly more complex.

 

[yorkie]

I do sometimes use HEX; if I am in a rush and will be returning within a month, then it can be worth it, but only because I have a Network Railcard and the Crossrail fare is also very high.

It never seems to be full, and indeed when I use HEX it is usually pretty empty, although some of the peak time trains were well loaded.

If I am not in a rush, I use the Piccadilly Line. I rarely use Crossrail as it's the worst of both worlds (relatively slow compared to HEX but expensive compared to the tube).

 

[Horizon22]

I do sometimes use HEX; if I am in a rush and will be returning within a month, then it can be worth it, but only because I have a Network Railcard and the Crossrail fare is also very high.

It never seems to be full, and indeed when I use HEX it is usually pretty empty, although some of the peak time trains were well loaded.

If I am not in a rush, I use the Piccadilly Line. I rarely use Crossrail as it's the worst of both worlds (relatively slow compared to HEX but expensive compared to the tube).

Unfortunately an outcome of the "Heathrow premium" which the airport effectively placed on rail traffic, particularly for TfL as opposed to the expected zonal fare.

You could also say its the best of both worlds; cheaper than HeX but faster than the tube! Is your glass half full or empty haha.

 

[yorkie]

You could also say its the best of both worlds; cheaper than HeX but faster than the tube! Is your glass half full or empty haha.

For some people, I can see that.

But for travelling between King's Cross & Heathrow T5, definitely not. For me, it is only marginally quicker than the Piccadilly, but with the downside that I need to change, and the trains are often very busy. And yet it costs a lot more.

If I am making a return journey within a month, the marginal additional cost of using HEX isn't that great, when compared to Crossrail.

Another factor is that the most common terminal I use is T5, which favours HEX (or Piccadilly Line) for frequency; Crossrail to H5 is very infrequent, which could mean two changes and further erodes any speed benefits over the Piccadilly.

The cost of Crossrail / Piccadilly Lines can be reduced by tapping out & back in at Hayes & Harlington and Hatton Cross, respectively; I will do the latter where the frequency means I am not stepping back more than about 3 mins or if I have loads of time to spare.

If cost was no object, I'd change at Paddington and get HEX every time, but it benefits the operator for the HEX trains to mostly carry fresh air.

 

[Horizon22]

For some people, I can see that.

But for travelling between King's Cross & Heathrow T5, definitely not. For me, it is only marginally quicker than the Piccadilly, but with the downside that I need to change, and the trains are often very busy. And yet it costs a lot more.

If I am making a return journey within a month, the marginal additional cost of using HEX isn't that great, when compared to Crossrail.

Another factor is that the most common terminal I use is T5, which favours HEX (or Piccadilly Line) for frequency; Crossrail to H5 is very infrequent, which could mean two changes and further erodes any speed benefits over the Piccadilly.

The cost of Crossrail / Piccadilly Lines can be reduced by tapping out & back in at Hayes & Harlington and Hatton Cross, respectively; I will do the latter where the frequency means I am not stepping back more than about 3 mins or if I have loads of time to spare.

If cost was no object, I'd change at Paddington and get HEX every time, but it benefits the operator for the HEX trains to mostly carry fresh air.

Obviously each case depends. Yes I would say Euston / KGX probably have the biggest "time penalty" factor even if the Farringdon connection is pretty rapid (from St Pancras) but it all gets very maginal (minutes here or there and then depends if you just miss a train). And yes Terminal 5 is better served by HeX of course, with Terminal 2/3 and Terminal 4 better served by the Elizabeth line on pure frequency.

Many people have evaluated and decided on the basis of time / cost / location and the Elizabeth line seems to be the most loaded to the airport out of all the modes.

 

[HST43257]

I’d say losing 2 platforms at Paddington (6/7) is a price worth paying. The Heathrow influence seems to be more extreme than many can imagine so I assume they’re not to be messed with. Part of me wishes they could go down to 8 min turnarounds on one platform, but 23 min turnarounds are useful for GWML reliability and also if they call at OOC.

In terms of GWML paths, I’d honestly say it’s not a huge issue. GWR are hardly pushing for 16tph out of London, and the HEX isn’t on the GWML long enough for 110mph(?) to be an issue. Let’s say there’s a complete maximum of 12tph GWR and 4tph HEX out of Paddington. A 15 min rotation then looks something like GWR xx00 xx03 xx07 then HEX xx10 then GWR xx15 and so on. Is that so bad?

 

[yorkie]

Obviously each case depends. Yes I would say Euston / KGX probably have the biggest "time penalty" factor even if the Farringdon connection is pretty rapid (from St Pancras) but it all gets very maginal (minutes here or there and then depends if you just miss a train). And yes Terminal 5 is better served by HeX of course, with Terminal 2/3 and Terminal 4 better served by the Elizabeth line on pure frequency.

Farringdon is going the wrong way; by the time I am there, I could already be halfway to Paddington! The interchange isn't great, either.

Many people have evaluated and decided on the basis of time / cost / location and the Elizabeth line seems to be the most loaded to the airport out of all the modes.

For people going to the very centre, served by Crossrail, then absolutely it makes sense.

I think some other people are doing so because they do not realise how much more expensive it is than the Piccadilly Line, though.

I tend to bring something to do and sit at the extreme front (or extreme rear) behind the cab where I won't get disturbed and that is more productive than me, than saving 10-15 mins faffing about changing at Farringdon/TCR/PAD and enduring very crowded conditions on XR.

I’d say losing 2 platforms at Paddington (6/7) is a price worth paying. The Heathrow influence seems to be more extreme than many can imagine so I assume they’re not to be messed with. Part of me wishes they could go down to 8 min turnarounds on one platform, but 23 min turnarounds are useful for GWML reliability and also if they call at OOC.

In terms of GWML paths, I’d honestly say it’s not a huge issue. GWR are hardly pushing for 16tph out of London, and the HEX isn’t on the GWML long enough for 110mph(?) to be an issue. Let’s say there’s a complete maximum of 12tph GWR and 4tph HEX out of Paddington. A 15 min rotation then looks something like GWR xx00 xx03 xx07 then HEX xx10 then GWR xx15 and so on. Is that so bad?

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that it's not really (much of) an issue for planning purposes; it only generally becomes an issue when disruption occurs, or even if a train is simply running late. Decelerating a long distance train down from 125 to a crawl, to let a short distance train go ahead doesn't really make a lot of sense in many ways, and yet that is what has to happen at times.

The return fare from Paddington to Heathrow with a Network Railcard is actually the same price, if returning within a month, as 2x single PAYG fare from Paddington to Heathrow. People think Crossrail is a lot cheaper than HEX, but actually Crossrail is very expensive. HEX is mega-expensive if you don't have a Railcard!

I suspect most customers have no idea how much they are going to be charged, and I also think many people probably don't check their bank balances to see. And of those that do, I suspect many of them don't realise the Piccadilly Line is so much cheaper (and, even if they do, that it is even cheaper if you do the Hatton Cross split!)

 

[Horizon22]

Farringdon is going the wrong way; by the time I am there, I could already be halfway to Paddington! The interchange isn't great, either.

For people going to the very centre, served by Crossrail, then absolutely it makes sense.

I think some other people are doing so because they do not realise how much more expensive it is than the Piccadilly Line, though.

True the H&C/Circle is of course better.

Maybe they don't but passenger numbers to Heathrow overall haven't changed much, and Heathrow Connect wasn't super popular so you have to wonder where the people have transferred from. I don't think modal analysis has been done on this yet although maybe HAL would rather not know!

 

[HSTEd]

HeX are incredibly anti OOC from what I hear.

Well it would rather torpedo what's left of their business model.

It's not that much quicker than Crossrail as it is, and once the nonstop run has to start at Old Oak rather than Paddington that advantage will shrink further.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Many people have evaluated and decided on the basis of time / cost / location and the Elizabeth line seems to be the most loaded to the airport out of all the modes.

Maybe they don't but passenger numbers to Heathrow overall haven't changed much, and Heathrow Connect wasn't super popular so you have to wonder where the people have transferred from. I don't think modal analysis has been done on this yet although maybe HAL would rather not know!

Right, so you've reached your conclusion already, just a pity that there don't seem to be any actual facts out there. Yeah. Right.

I very rarely go to Heathrow (although I am presuming that @Horizon22 is a frequent flier) but happened to be there last Thursday, hence this thread piqued my interest. I used HEX one way and the Elizabeth Line the other way. Even Off Peak I found the Elizabeth Line to be crowded, uncomfortable with mainly longitudinal seats, no proper luggage stacks to keep bags 'in view' and, of course, no toilets. The HEX was moderately loaded, had nice conventional transverse seats so that one could actually see London out of the window, sensible luggage spaces, First Class (had I wanted it), toilets and was faster. Well worth a premium in my view (which, as @yorkie points out may not be that much depending on appropriate ticket type, railcard, etc.).

In the absence of any news so far about Congested Infrastructure, additional long distance services or additional outer suburban services I'll assume that there aren't actually any proposals. Meanwhile I note that GWR seem to be short of spare rolling stock with the Class 769s not coming, the remaining HST Castles going and more trains needed for the Cornwall Metro, Portishead, Henbury and possibly other expansions.

 

[Horizon22]

Right, so you've reached your conclusion already, just a pity that there don't seem to be any actual facts out there. Yeah. Right.

I very rarely go to Heathrow (although I am presuming that @Horizon22 is a frequent flier) but happened to be there last Thursday, hence this thread piqued my interest.

I am not but have travelled a lot on the services to & from Heathrow (albeit rarely there!), and have visibly seen loadings of Heathrow Express too arriving/departing Paddington. So yes it is mostly anecdotal, although you can very clearly tell the difference pre & post Elizabeth line through-running. I think there is some commercial analysis out there, but obviously that is going to be very sensitive and private. Even if I don't have the figures, it is clear HeX is suffering a lot more.

There's some interesting articles about there regarding the loadings and future of Heathrow Express:

The Slow Death Of Heathrow Express - London Reconnections

The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.

www.londonreconnections.com

When discussing Crossrail, commenters have often speculated on the ultimate demise of Heathrow Express – the private train operating company that runs a non-stop express service between Paddington and Heathrow. This speculation is generally predicated on the belief that once the Elizabeth line runs to Heathrow no-one in their right mind would bother with Heathrow Express. Such speculation was generally that – merely speculation – but now facts and whispers are beginning to emerge, suggesting that maybe Heathrow Express won’t exist by the end of the decade. Here we provide some of the reasons that cast doubt upon the continuing existence of Heathrow Express.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64373366 (which is a fair bit of moaning about it being "too popular" to Heathrow for the locals)

One of the main problems they all mention is the volume of Heathrow passengers who use the service.
The Elizabeth line is cheaper than the Heathrow Express and faster than the Piccadilly line, so it is an attractive option.
But that means there is often a lot of luggage on the floor, in carriages with no luggage racks, meaning airline passengers and commuters are jostling for limited space.
The most recent TfL report on the Elizabeth line reflects on some of the issues it has faced.
These include many points failures in west London - where the infrastructure is owned and maintained by Network Rail, not Transport for London - as well as the impact of industrial action.
But if we look at the performance and reliability of the Elizabeth line, it is pretty good compared to other operators, with 93% of services arriving at the station within five minutes of when they are meant to.

https://www.timeout.com/london/news/is-this-the-end-of-the-line-for-the-heathrow-express-050223 (some info on financial impact)

London has one of the best public transport systems in the world. But anyone who’s spent a hot, sticky journey on the coach to Luton Airport or faced a long meandering trundle down the Piccadilly Line stressing about making a flight at Heathrow knows that travelling to the capital’s airports can be a trying experience.

That’s where the Heathrow Express comes in: the Uber executive of train journeys, the snazzy express service whisks passengers from Paddington Station to Heathrow Airport in just 15 minutes, making it the fastest direct rail route between central London and the UK’s biggest airport. But there’s a hefty price to pay for the speedy journey. The Heathrow Express is the second most expensive rail journey in Britain, costing £25, or £1.50 per mile for the 16.5-mile trip. This didn’t stop the Heathrow Express from generating a whopping £31 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2019, with people opting to pay a premium for stress-free travel. But things might be about to change for the high-speed service.

According to reports seen by The Times, the opening of the Elizabeth Line appears to have made a dent in the Express’s revenues. Heathrow Express’s passenger numbers apparently haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels despite flights at the airport being pretty much back to normal. Heathrow said revenues from Heathrow Express in the first three months of 2023 were at £22 million – a third less than during the first quarter of 2019.

In the absence of any news so far about Congested Infrastructure, additional long distance services or additional outer suburban services I'll assume that there aren't actually any proposals. Meanwhile I note that GWR seem to be short of spare rolling stock with the Class 769s not coming, the remaining HST Castles going and more trains needed for the Cornwall Metro, Portishead, Henbury and possibly other expansions.

I didn't say there were and I am a realist - GWR don't have the fleet availability yet and HAL are happy with Heathrow Express currently. But this is the speculative forum after all, and the scope would be there to run services through again (e.g the Bedwyn service) or increasing frequency to other destinations on the Main Line which could use the extra capacity (e.g. extra Oxford trains).

 

[JN114]

Despite HEx’s reduced passenger numbers (which Heathrow have spent more than a decade expecting and planning for!), Elizabeth Line doesn’t have the capacity to take on all of Heathrow’s heavy rail traffic. The locals at Ealing, Southall etc are already up in arms about “their” trains being overly full of travellers to/from the Airport with their luggage; and consequently not getting the improved service that years of disruption promised them.

If HEx feel they aren’t getting the passengers they need; they have plenty of headroom to drop their fares to stimulate demand - as part of Heathrow Airport they could easily afford to run HEx at a loss cross-subsidising from other more profitable parts of the Airport operation. They’re likely choosing not to do that at present to protect the onboard ambience of their services.

 

[HST43257]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that it's not really (much of) an issue for planning purposes; it only generally becomes an issue when disruption occurs, or even if a train is simply running late. Decelerating a long distance train down from 125 to a crawl, to let a short distance train go ahead doesn't really make a lot of sense in many ways, and yet that is what has to happen at times.

Fair point. Hopefully whatever junction scheduler and driver advisory systems they’re using these days can assist in minimising these delays one way or another.

 

[railfan99]

I do sometimes use HEX; if I am in a rush and will be returning within a month, then it can be worth it, but only because I have a Network Railcard and the Crossrail fare is also very high.

If I am not in a rush, I use the Piccadilly Line. I rarely use Crossrail as it's the worst of both worlds (relatively slow compared to HEX but expensive compared to the tube).

Having used the Elizabeth line in 2023 on a trip from Australia (I returned home from European airports), I disagree. (I tried to do so in 2022 but it was a strike day IIRC).

The extensive, lengthy EL is ideal: a comfortable enough (provided one obtains a seat at say T4 Heathrow), reasonable speed suburban train that avoids the outrageous fares of Heathrow Express and the confined configuration, and at times rough ride, of Tube trains.

I have used the Heathrow Express on a business trip years ago but it is unrealistically priced for most international tourists, and given I would never use a taxi from say Paddington to my accommodation or onwards travel by rail using a Eurailpass, the time saving is not a major consideration.

The EL is a major achievement for England. In higher median income Australia, Melbourne can't even get our long promised airport line built.

Despite HEx’s reduced passenger numbers (which Heathrow have spent more than a decade expecting and planning for!), Elizabeth Line doesn’t have the capacity to take on all of Heathrow’s heavy rail traffic. The locals at Ealing, Southall etc are already up in arms about “their” trains being overly full of travellers to/from the Airport with their luggage; and consequently not getting the improved service that years of disruption promised them.

Not many of these locals must have been to southeast or northeast Asia's major cities. Bad luck: airport travellers from overseas bring in a huge amount of tourism revenue to hotels, hospitality venues, TfL and attractions (occasionally including your wonderful heritage railways) that England needs given its economy is in recession.

The journey times are hardly lengthy on the EL by world standards. Southall to Paddington if not delayed by faulty signals/points: 17 minutes.

 

[The Planner]

In the absence of any news so far about Congested Infrastructure, additional long distance services or additional outer suburban services I'll assume that there aren't actually any proposals. Meanwhile I note that GWR seem to be short of spare rolling stock with the Class 769s not coming, the remaining HST Castles going and more trains needed for the Cornwall Metro, Portishead, Henbury and possibly other expansions.

Bear in mind that declaring congested infrastructure, that NR needs a plan to resolve it. Whether thats tinkering at the edges, a timetable change or reduction or new infrastructure. Normally its not a cheap process. You don't just declare it and say oh well.

 

[mrcheek]

I dont think theres any shortage of paths in and out of Paddington.

When the IETs were launched, GWR had plans for lots of extra services, all of which had paths available, but the plan was abandoned largely due to the drop in passenger numbers after Covid.

 

[JN114]

When the IETs were launched, GWR had plans for lots of extra services, all of which had paths available, but the plan was abandoned largely due to the drop in passenger numbers after Covid.

2 extra trains per hour, those paths now used to allow the GWR semi-fasts to run on the Mains to Slough