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I don't think Sunak is hugely popular but they really tanked in the polls during the Liz Truss "era" and haven't recovered from that. So in a way the party leader from now to the election isn't a critical factor.
It's a carrot and stick thing too relative to driving. If you drive from Carshalton to Zone 1 it's going to be slow and parking will be expensive, so the train wins for most people. Carshalton to Wandsworth is an easier drive and parking will be cheaper or free.
I've used it a few times with my bike. My impression is while it serves a few different niche markets well, they're all quite price sensitive so if the fare was say £10 it would price most users off. It has two crew members and runs roughly half hourly.
There was previously talk of Thames...
Interestingly if you run those numbers in EC but with Reform on 2% (which was the Brexit Party share in 2019) they still get battered - so the main factor is the size of the gap between Labour and Conservatives.