We're just at the end of our performance review cycle at work, we should have our discussions next week.
I think we'll be lucky to get anything over 3%.
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Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.
- Thread starter Cowley
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I think we'll be lucky to get anything over 3%.
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These are the official statistics from the ONS, see the BBC report on last month's figures here:
Wage growth slows as UK job market begins to stall
Average pay rose by 6.6%, down from the previous three months, but continues to outstrip inflation.
www.bbc.co.uk
birchesgreen
Established Member
I had a rise last year (about 3%) which was my first for 5 years, probably be waiting another 5 years for my next!
uglymonkey
Member
- Joined
- 10 Aug 2018
- Messages
- 480
I'd love to know who is getting these wage increases in the statistics - It certainly isn't me or any of my friends/colleagues!
It would be very interesting to see a breakdown of that by level of pay and sector, I'll see if I can find anything.
We've not been *too* bad in that we've had raises every year, but they're well below the alleged average for the private sector (it's been about 3% each time).
I think the highest I had in the last 6 years would have been just over 5%, but that was in the first review cycle as I had been hired below the typical rate for the position.
As a former teacher then college lecturer (lower wages), I would ask whether the wages of the senior management team and, in particular, if it is an Academy Trust, its senior team, have remained static. Looking at it from a distance it seems like Education has had a big growth in senior staff, partly because of the amount of bureaucracy involved. When I was at secondary school, we had a Headmaster, Deputy Head Mistress and Senior Master (the latter two did some teaching), when I taught we had a Headteacher, three deputies (who did some teaching) and four pastoral leaders, who taught; it is now a leadership team of 8 before you get to the pastoral level. And that is not excessive. It is a stand-alone so no further level of bureaucracy. I suspect that there has been an increase in 'teachers wages' because of the salaries of those who don't teach (much).
Minimum wage went up by between 9.7 and 10.9%, so there was likely some movement at the lower end. Quite a lot of companies also pushed through a 5% standard rise in the first half of the year.
The weird thing is that the Bank seems to be ignoring that wages are a lagging indicator and that last year's rises will already largely be priced in. If people got 6.5% early last year then that would have been a below-inflation rise - it's just weird to puriently compare this to the current inflation rate.
The headline minimum wage figure goes up again by 9.8% in April. Businesses that are able to do so will pass on the higher wage costs to their customers.
The price increases that follow from the 2024 minimum wage increase are not priced in yet. The Bank of England will not be ignoring that.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Yep. And thus the inflationary cycle continues. And those that can't pass on the increased costs will end up either making people redundant or have to look for savings - meaning conditions at work deteriorate.
How ironic that - of all Governments - a Tory Government - has forgotten the basic truth of economics that you can't (except in very special circumstances) make people overall better off by just handing out paper/digital money if the country isn't actually producing more.
It's excellent and a little surprising to finally see a bit of progress on the minimum wage front. Naturally to some degree this will be inflationary, but with higher salary bands seeing lower increases and other costs starting to even out, the actual amount of inflation this drives should be pretty small. It's the widespread quoting of last year's figures and ignoring of anything unrelated to inflation which bothers me. It's quite possible given who's been doing the appointments for the last few years that the MPC is now largely composed of terrible idiots
That's how monetary policy works to bring inflation down.
In many parts of the services sector wages are the biggest cost. The impact of minimum wage increases on prices in, for example, what we now call the hospitality industry, is significant. The Bank of England are paying particular attention to services sector inflation.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
At a time of relatively low unemployment and with the UK falling behind on productivity, it's reasonable to encourage employers to look at reducing labour costs by increasing staff productivity, such as by investing in automation. This is all part of the transition away from relying on low-paid immigrants - a situation that I think you and I would agree for different reasons was not desirable. It does of course rely on businesses being willing and able to invest when the economic outlook is generally poor.
A certain Ferro-femme must be looking down now not knowing whether to laugh or cry...... Of course, there are those contributing to this forum who subscribe to the Venezuelan/Zimbabwean school of Economics who say just print and borrow away, but again it is just shying away from personal responsibility and the fundamental truths, and it will come back to bite, as we are seeing
You are right. I think we have seen increased productivity of minimum wage jobs in elimination of these jobs with automation in supermarket check outs and distribution centres for instance. The problem areas are those related to Adult and Child social care, hospital cleaners etc where automation is much more difficult and above average inflation rising costs are meaning reductions in expenditure and therefore service provision elsewhere.(As we are seeing with Local Authority and NHS services)
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edwin_m
Veteran Member
Trying to push down wages in these area would only worsen existing staff shortages. And many low-paid workers also claim benefits, which will reduce if they are paid more, so the cost to the public sector of increasing the minimum wage is less than it might first appear (though the extra public sector cost mainly falls to local authorities and the NHS and the saving goes to central government).
Not disagreeing, but the extra costs are having to be found from somewhere, and currently this is by squeezing services.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
That's certainly true, but surely if employers are having trouble recruiting staff, that in itself will provide incentives to increase productivity if it's possible to do so. I'm not sure that artificially forcing an increase in wages beyond what market conditions would normally dictate is really going to be helpful - especially because that is likely to cause redundancies in places where it's not practical to improve output per worker.
Blindtraveler
Established Member
Announced today that my current MP, Tracy crouch, Chatham and aylesford he's not standing again at this year's election. She has had some personal problems not least cancer and says she's ready for a new challenge. It's a pretty safe conservative seat by the looks of it but there will be people who voted for her as a person and a damn good local MP who may now look elsewhere. Certainly souls a potential dilemma that I had which was the my most comfortable voting habits are liberal democrat and I wasn't going to do that if Tracy stood again as in the short time that I've lived here she's been a good politician and helpful to me personally. All that said, I may yet still vote conservative if the liberal democrat candidate is a complete non-starter and not worth supporting.
brad465
Established Member
The FT did an article today about the number of Tory MPs standing down, which is now approaching 1997 levels, a clear sign many believe they will either lose their seat or do not fancy the prospect of being in opposition. It does also raise questions about the level of experience in the party if they did, in the unlikely event, manage to retain power (not that experience was very high before, but there does seem to be a tilt towards more experienced ones leaving):
More Tories set to quit than before landslide 1997 defeat
Veterans as well as relative newcomers are among party members planning to stand down at next general election
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing an exodus of MPs that will outstrip the number of losses his party suffered ahead of its landslide defeat in the 1997 general election as he heads to the polls this year.
(Image of FT line graph showing the cumulative number of MPs standing down per party in the run up to the upcoming general election)
(Image of FT bar chart showing the number of MPs standing down per party in election years as far back as 1997)
The House of Commons Library maintains a list of "MPs standing down from the Commons ahead of the next general election" at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9808/
I attach today's version although I doubt it yet includes Tracey Crouch - no, it's current as of 9 February 2024.
I attach today's version although I doubt it yet includes Tracey Crouch - no, it's current as of 9 February 2024.
Not my MP but I agree that she is an excellent constituency MP. Certainly one of Kent*'s better ones. Her 'problem' is that she has a conscience - she resigned as a minister when the government announced they would put back the date when the maximum stake on FOBTs would be reduced. She has been a passionate advocate of grassroots sport, especially for women.
I'm not certain about it being pretty safe Conservative, Crouch won her first election, in 2010, by defeating an incumbent Labour MP and it is losing a heavily Conservative area in the boundary changes. There will also be those, like you, who have voted for the person, not the party. There will be some uncertainty because of the amount of housebuilding that has gone on in the area.
FOBT = Fixed Odds Betting Terminals.
* - as in the ceremonial county. She is certainly the best in Medway, but that is a pretty low bar!
Electoral Calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Chatham and Aylesford) gives Conservative 30% chance of winning, Labour 70% on current polling, changing the 65%/25% vote split in 2019 to 35%/42% at the next election.
Blindtraveler
Established Member
I do wonder how many people in Medway will vote labor however, they did this on mass at the local elections last year and speaking to a lot of people I think it's maybe coming home to roost a bit for them, I had not long moved to the area at the time and missed out on my polling card by literally 24 hours due to a delay in electoral registration processing.
I wasn't aware this seat was subject to a boundary change, we haven't had all the bumph through yet,
Not here's the surprising as the date of the actual election is not yet certain by any means and local offices will not want to either jump the gun or dispatch information that will later become inaccurate.
Regardless of disenfranchised Labour voters from last years Council elections, there will be people like me who haven't voted labor for years and have no intention of starting again, not because many US particularly wanted some of the more toxic aspects of the conservatives but more because in my case and I know I'm not alone labor have nothing to offer me and unless they can come up with a solid credible plan of what they're going to do and stop forever flip flopping on stuff then this situation is likely to continue
I wasn't aware this seat was subject to a boundary change, we haven't had all the bumph through yet,
Not here's the surprising as the date of the actual election is not yet certain by any means and local offices will not want to either jump the gun or dispatch information that will later become inaccurate.
Regardless of disenfranchised Labour voters from last years Council elections, there will be people like me who haven't voted labor for years and have no intention of starting again, not because many US particularly wanted some of the more toxic aspects of the conservatives but more because in my case and I know I'm not alone labor have nothing to offer me and unless they can come up with a solid credible plan of what they're going to do and stop forever flip flopping on stuff then this situation is likely to continue
The new constituency gains a piece in the north, A229/A230, Maidstone Road & City Way, but loses a part in the south which will go to the Maidstone and Malling constituency. 90.2% of the existing constituency forms part of the new one. Map from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/boundary-review-2023-which-seats-will-change/
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Howardh
Established Member
- Joined
- 17 May 2011
- Messages
- 8,185
Sunak's just had his hour on TV, not that many would have watched, I certainly didn't and by the lack of posts here, none of you did either, or there was 60 minutes nothing noteworthy?
Oh, GB news? I thought for a minute you meant real TV
Busaholic
Veteran Member
- Joined
- 7 Jun 2014
- Messages
- 14,096
And, of course, in the interests of impartiality they'll be having an hour with Starmer next week.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
May I suggest posters here read : How they broke Britain by James O'Brien
It explains and explores the Tufton Street > Media > Conservative party axis that has damaged this country so much in considerable detail.
It explains and explores the Tufton Street > Media > Conservative party axis that has damaged this country so much in considerable detail.
Blindtraveler
Established Member
Thanks
On the face of it looks sensible, the enlarged Maidstone constituency is probably going to stay conservative, I would put a small amount of money on this one also doing so in its new format but keeping an open mind as to what comes next
brad465
Established Member
The current Maidstone town is encompassed mostly in Maidstone and the Weald, which is basically the town and then a load of rural land to the south along a strip to Sissinghurst/Benenden way. The rural parts are going into a new Weald of Kent constituency, which I'm confident will be a safe Tory seat. The new Maidstone and Malling constituency being smaller in area and more urban could make it more of a swing seat.