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2023 Israel - Hamas war

Belperpete

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I'm of the belief that the winner of WW3 will be nature. Even if nukes are not used and humanity survives the conventional warfare, the conflict will expedite climate change, both through other priorities and the war itself being a big polluter, to the point humanity will be in real trouble after, regardless of which side won on the battlefield.
The impact of any war depends very much on where the front lines are. For both WW1 and 2, Europe was a major front line, and suffered greatly. The USA on the other hand came out of both quite well.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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The impact of any war depends very much on where the front lines are. For both WW1 and 2, Europe was a major front line, and suffered greatly. The USA on the other hand came out of both quite well.
They will come out of it well again flogging ever more kit to Israel and benefitting massively if the price of oil goes through the roof when markets open on Monday.
 

yorkie

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They will come out of it well again flogging ever more kit to Israel and benefitting massively if the price of oil goes through the roof when markets open on Monday.
Is it really that simple?

Oil prices do have an impact on the U.S. economy, but it goes two ways because of the diversity of industries. High oil prices can drive job creation and investment as it becomes economically viable for oil companies to exploit higher-cost shale oil deposits. However, high oil prices also hit businesses and consumers with higher transportation and manufacturing costs. Lower oil prices hurt the unconventional oil activity, but benefits manufacturing and other sectors where fuel costs are a primary concern.
 

Scotrail314209

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Watching live coverage on the BBC website, looks like missiles are starting to be shot down over Jersualem while Iran have said they are not launching further strikes


Iran suggests it will not launch further strikes​

Iran is now citing Article 51 of the UN Charter for its attack.
It says "the matter can be deemed concluded" - suggesting it will not launch further strikes. However, it has warned against any retaliation or any involvement by the United States.
“Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus," its permanent mission at the United Nations said on Twitter/X. "The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”
Article 51 of the UN Charter says that member states have "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs".

I would provide a source for the missiles over Jerusalem, but it was from the live feed on the BBC News website, with them also saying that the first wave was to be expected around 2am Israel time (so roughly now).
 

Russel

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Watching live coverage on the BBC website, looks like missiles are starting to be shot down over Jersualem while Iran have said they are not launching further strikes




I would provide a source for the missiles over Jerusalem, but it was from the live feed on the BBC News website, with them also saying that the first wave was to be expected around 2am Israel time (so roughly now).

Hmm, so as long as Israel don't start sending missiles the other way, this shouldn't escalate too much... we can only hope.
 

Belperpete

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An embassy/consulate is not the sovereign territory of the country represented in it, that's a myth. That doesn't mean what Israel did was justified, but that's the technicality here.
True, but an attack on an embassy is considered as an attack on the country it represents. So, technically, Israel directly attacked Iran when it attacked its embassy.
 

Bantamzen

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The Israel/Iran situation clearly can't be handled through diplomacy - they're both fundamentally opposed to the existence of the other. Decades of talks have clearly just delayed the inevitable.
And sadly this is the reality, both sides will never accept the other's existence because of their fundamental religious differences. This isn't a war like WWII, this is a "holy war" that frightened old men engage with in the hope that their sky fairy will reward them when they die. Its beyond pathetic, and it will only change when the people supporting the frightened old men turn around and say "not in my name" to them, which sadly may never happen.
 

Falcon1200

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It seems that whatever Israel does, the US will have their back.

If the US did not 'have Israel's back', Israel would long since have ceased to exist. Although, belatedly, even President Biden is now expressing reservations about Israel's excessive and murderous conduct towards Palestinians.

An expert on BBC News this morning said that Israel has the world's most sophisticated air defence system; For very good reasons.
 

brad465

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And sadly this is the reality, both sides will never accept the other's existence because of their fundamental religious differences. This isn't a war like WWII, this is a "holy war" that frightened old men engage with in the hope that their sky fairy will reward them when they die. Its beyond pathetic, and it will only change when the people supporting the frightened old men turn around and say "not in my name" to them, which sadly may never happen.
Religion is the facade these regimes use to justify their actions. It's really about land, power, control, etc., but good luck getting your populations to get on board with those reasons for war.
 

Bantamzen

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Religion is the facade these regimes use to justify their actions. It's really about land, power, control, etc., but good luck getting your populations to get on board with those reasons for war.
For those at the top religion has always been the facade. I know a lot of people draw hope from their respective religions, but their religious leaders are responsible for centuries of hate, violence and war. For any Star Trek fans out there what we need is a "First Contact" to bring some sanity into this insane world.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Netanyahu new full well the attack on Irans embassy in Damascus would potentially provoke Iran into a response and that would play nicely into his plan to keep the conflict with Hamas going and potentially open other fronts but most importantly force other nations that were starting to look wobbly over the Gazza action to now take sides.

Even if Iran back off for now it just introduces more uncertainty into the region and in particular to oil prices and even though the world is better insulated than it was 50 years ago it still has the potential to wreak havoc across the globe if not managed.
 

Mogster

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And sadly this is the reality, both sides will never accept the other's existence because of their fundamental religious differences. This isn't a war like WWII, this is a "holy war" that frightened old men engage with in the hope that their sky fairy will reward them when they die. It’s beyond pathetic, and it will only change when the people supporting the frightened old men turn around and say "not in my name" to them, which sadly may never happen.

Iran doesn’t acknowledge Israel, in fact it openly seeks its destruction. Apparently in January Saudi Arabia was in talks with Israel that were thought to be leading to public acknowledgement, our enemies enemy is our friend etc. That has been thrown into disarray now to Iran’s advantage, strangely enough…

As I understand it Israel acknowledges is neighbours rights to exist, although there are well known border disputes.
 

Wilts Wanderer

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As I understand it Israel acknowledges is neighbours rights to exist, although there are well known border disputes.

With one obvious exception - Palestine. A return of the ‘two state solution’ requires a change of government in Jerusalem.
 

brad465

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Netanyahu has strengthen his position for now so no change anytime soon i fear
He is the latest in a long line of autocrats/leaders who has resorted to war in order to retain power by distracting from internal struggles: Putin and the Iranian regime are other current examples; if China do invade Taiwan, Xi is another leader presiding other relative economic struggles.

Elsewhere looks like disapproval with the UK Governments strong pro-Israel stance has led to a headline-making boycott of Eid celebrations in Downing Street:


Some Conservative politicians as well as business and charity leaders have said they will boycott the government's Eid event over its support of Israel.
The annual event, hosted by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is set to take place in Downing Street on Monday.
The BBC understands some invitees will not go in protest of Israel's military action in Gaza.
A government spokesperson said it understood humanitarian concerns regarding Gaza.
Sources in Downing Street have privately expressed concern at the number of people who might boycott the reception.
 

johnnydoe

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I see the EU leaders are finally starting to call out Iran as the instigators of destabilisation of the Middle East. About time.

Hmm, so as long as Israel don't start sending missiles the other way, this shouldn't escalate too much... we can only hope.
Too late. Iran have been escalating conflicts in the Middle East for years. Time they were made pay a heavy price.
 

nw1

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Too late. Iran have been escalating conflicts in the Middle East for years. Time they were made pay a heavy price.

Do you understand how irresponsibly dangerous your comment is?

Hawks are an utter menace to world peace. If the Iranian embassy hadn't been bombed, this wouldn't have happened.

And what about the innocent Iranian citizens caught up in the militarism you propose? Oops. They don't matter. Just like the citizens of Gaza.

And what about the possible reprisals against the West if we decide to declare war on Iran? Seems us Western citizens don't matter either. We all have to pay a sacrifice.
 
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ainsworth74

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If the Iranian embassy hadn't been bombed, this wouldn't have happened.
Though, of course, if Iran hadn't sponsored attacks on Israel via its proxies Hezbollah and the Houthis the embassy wouldn't have been bombed...
 

johnnydoe

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Do you understand how irresponsibly dangerous your comment is?

Hawks are an utter menace to world peace. If the Iranian embassy hadn't been bombed, this wouldn't have happened.

And what about the innocent Iranian citizens caught up in the militarism you propose? Oops. They don't matter. Just like the citizens of Gaza.

And what about the possible reprisals against the West if we decide to declare war on Iran? Seems us Western citizens don't matter either. We all have to pay a sacrifice.
The citizens of Gaza are far from innocent. They voted in Hamas as their government and 75% of them supported the October attacks. If they had their way, Israel wouldn't exist. They have zero desire for peace. It was them that rejected the two-state solution.

Iran have been creating wars in Yemen, Lebannon and Syria for years.
Appeasement is why Russia has invaded Ukraine twice in less than eight years. It's the worst of all the options and makes everything worse.

World Peace is a fairy tale for children. The world has always had conflicts and will continue to do so for the long foreseeable future.
 

nw1

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Though, of course, if Iran hadn't sponsored attacks on Israel via its proxies Hezbollah and the Houthis the embassy wouldn't have been bombed...

One could also argue that Houthis wouldn't be bombing ships if there was no bombing in Gaza.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to whether starting a war is an appropriate response to acts of terrorism. Imagine if the UK government decided that bombing Belfast was an appropriate response to IRA atrocities.

The citizens of Gaza are far from innocent.
Good grief, what an appalling generalisation. I don't think this line of conversation is even worth continuing with.
 

johnnydoe

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One could also argue that Houthis wouldn't be bombing ships if there was no bombing in Gaza.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to whether starting a war is an appropriate response to acts of terrorism.


Good grief, what an appalling generalisation. I don't think this line of conversation is even worth continuing with.
The war was started by the government of Gaza. Not some rogue element within a state - the actual government with support from the public.

One could also argue that Houthis wouldn't be bombing ships if there was no bombing in Gaza.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to whether starting a war is an appropriate response to acts of terrorism. Imagine if the UK government decided that bombing Belfast was an appropriate response to IRA atrocities.


Good grief, what an appalling generalisation. I don't think this line of conversation is even worth continuing with.
Innocent people don't elect a terrorist organisation as their goverment. Innocent people don't support the murder and rape of thousands as well as the kidnapping of hundreds. You have a very pecular definition of innocent if you think that they are innocent. There is undoubtedly a minority that are innocent - but definitely not the majority.

 

ainsworth74

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They voted in Hamas as their government and 75% of them supported the October attacks.
Though, of course, that was nearly twenty years ago now and considering the demographics of Gaza most of the residents there now probably weren't born yet and certainly weren't old enough to take part in that election. Not sure it's viable to blame the current population for that particular election. Certainly not if one is attempting to justify the continued assault on Gazan civilians.
One could also argue that Houthis wouldn't be bombing ships if there was no bombing in Gaza.
Yes that's the point I'm trying to make. It's reductive to try and suggest that just one thing along the lines of "x bombed y therefore y responded, if only x hadn't bombed y" would have meant the violence would not have occurred. The conflict is far more complex than that.
 

johnnydoe

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Though, of course, that was nearly twenty years ago now and considering the demographics of Gaza most of the residents there now probably weren't born yet and certainly weren't old enough to take part in that election. Not sure it's viable to blame the current population for that particular election. Certainly not if one is attempting to justify the continued assault on Gazan civilians.

Yes that's the point I'm trying to make. It's reductive to try and suggest that just one thing along the lines of "x bombed y therefore y responded, if only x hadn't bombed y" would have meant the violence would not have occurred. The conflict is far more complex than that.
About half the population is under 18 and not of voting age. About half the eligible current voting population could have voted in 2006 going by the demographics. Nearly 3 in 4 supported the attacks on Israel.
 

uglymonkey

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"At the end of the day, it all boils down to whether starting a war is an appropriate response to acts of terrorism. Imagine if the UK government decided that bombing Belfast was an appropriate response to IRA atrocities."

I think an Israeli response , if the situations were reversed, would be to immediately use helicopter gunships to rocket and destroy Belfast council estates repeatedly.
 

johnnydoe

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Israel and Gaza is not analogous to Northern Ireland, despite what the flag-waving idiots in Ireland would like to think.

The Jews were part of the Levant for thousands of years. The Northern Ireland plantations occurred in the 17th century.

The second notable point of distinction is that the IRA was a terrorist organisation. It was never in government and it was never supported by the majority on either, so called sides. Contrary to the alternative history the Shinners like to promote, the IRA had single digit support in Northern Ireland. They also loved to kill Catholics more than any other group in Northern Ireland.

With Hamas you're talking about an actual acting government that represents Gazans.
 

ainsworth74

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About half the population is under 18 and not of voting age. About half the eligible current voting population could have voted in 2006 going by the demographics.
So around a quarter of the current population was eligible to vote in 2006 and of that quarter perhaps a little under half voted for Hamas. Again, I'm far from convinced it's a viable argument to lay the blame on today's Palestinians for an election that happened nearly twenty years ago in which only a fraction were eligible to vote in that election and only a fraction of that fraction actually voted for Hamas.

Nearly 3 in 4 supported the attacks on Israel.
Perhaps so though what is the reliability of polling in Gaza? Considering that Hamas will happily torture and murder those who they suspect of collaboration with Israel I'm not entirely sure how much you can trust anyone to give an accurate response to a pollster. Even if they do surely that is simply a reflection of the ongoing destruction and killing by Israel against them and their family/friends?
With Hamas you're talking about an actual acting government that represents Gazans.

How representative is a Government which held one election nearly twenty years ago when only a quarter of the current population were eligible to take part in that election?
 

johnnydoe

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I certainly will not give them the benefit of the doubt. Support for Hamas in other polls has been on the rise in Gaza and this is mirrored in the West Bank.
 

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