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3 month old 737-9 Max depressurisation incident

edwin_m

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Your comment paints a very different picture to this video.
I'll look at that one later and maybe respond further, but currently I'm going by this one which is quoted by several other YouTubers who seem to know their stuff, such as Mentour Now and Blancloirio.


Starting about 6:18.

If the door is properly in position it sits on multiple pads and pressurisation just pushes it harder outwards against them. The bolts prevent it moving upwards from that position, which would allow it to move outwards once the pads were no longer engaged. But pressurisation does not apply any force to the bolts themselves.
 
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AlastairFraser

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Airbus has said that the A220-500 (sometimes referenced as the A221) is "a matter of when not if" but hasn't said when production will begin, Airbus doesn't want the A220-500 to cannabilise the A320neo, even though A320neo orders have peaked as the A321neo have skyrocketed and A320neo orders are slowing. That doesn't make the A320neo a mistake, it was by all means a great move by Airbus, its just the A321neo is outselling the A320neo.
They could do with putting a date out for prototype production though, it's clear there is demand for the plane.
 

YorkRailFan

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They could do with putting a date out for prototype production though, it's clear there is demand for the plane.
Airbus is struggling with putting out 6 A220s a month, the last thing they'll want is another variant with a larger backlog increasing complexity for a supply line that can't build 6 aircraft a month.
 

YorkRailFan

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If the door is properly in position it sits on multiple pads and pressurisation just pushes it harder outwards against them. The bolts prevent it moving upwards from that position, which would allow it to move outwards once the pads were no longer engaged. But pressurisation does not apply any force to the bolts themselves.
My point is more of those bolts are either loose or aren't there entirely.

Some of Copa's aircraft will return to service today.Copa Airlines and Aeromexico have announced the return of their grounded Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft following the Federal Aviation Administration's approval of the final inspection process.Following an incident with an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 in which a door plug blew out midflight, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered that all MAX 9s with door plugs be grounded. This precaution was taken to inspect other MAX 9s that might have loose bolts on the door plugs and to prevent further incidents. Over the last few weeks, the FAA has worked closely with Boeing and the airlines to finalize an inspection process.Two nights ago, this final inspection process was approved, and airlines were told their aircraft could return to service as soon as the inspections were completed. Since then, several airlines have announced the return of their aircraft to service. Copa Airlines and Aeromexico announced yesterday that the respective returns would take place in the last 24 hours and coming days. Aeromexico said,We are grateful for the support of la Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC) through this process and reiterate our sincerest apologies to our passengers for the inconveniences caused by this situation entirely out of our control.The Mexican airline hopes to complete the inspections of its MAX 9s in the coming days.

Copa Airlines, which also operates MAX 9s, some of which remained in service throughout this ordeal, hopes to complete all inspections by today. The airline said,Starting today, January 25, we will gradually re-add the flights that were previously canceled. By Sunday, January 28, we expect a total return to operations."

Copa added that passengers previously rescheduled can reschedule again at no cost, those who had canceled flights but do not have a new itinerary can confirm a flight, and those who requested refunds will need to purchase new tickets if they wish to travel. Passengers are recommended to check their flight status on the Copa website or app.

Good news for both airlines, as they both significantly rely on the 737-9 for their narrowbody operations. We've heard nothing from Turkish Airlines, likely because EASA hasn't revoked their EAD meaning that Turkish Airlines can't fly the 737-9 into the EU or over EU airspace.
 
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edwin_m

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My point is more of those bolts are either loose or aren't there entirely.
Agree 100%. My point was that a pressure test isn't going to increase the likelihood of bolts coming loose or already loose bolts coming out, and even with no bolts at all it will pass the pressure test as long as the plug remains in the correct position. A pressure test only gives an indication of something wrong if the plug it is already out of position and probably in imminent danger of being blown out - as apparently happened with the Alaska aircraft in its last few flights.

Edit: I've now watched the relevant part of the video
cited above. This does describe the correct function of the upper bolts, without mentioning the lower ones. It also suggests that pressurisation will make it more likely for loose bolts to come out, but as explained above, looking at the mechanism as described I can't see how that could be the case. No evidence is provided that makes me change that opinion.

Further, it suggests that Spirit may have supplied the fuselage with the plug installed but no bolts, and Boeing may not have removed so not discovered this situation. This is, I think, highly unlikely. I contend the means to dislodge the plug would be vibration when under little or no pressurisation, and this would be very likely to happen on the train journey to Boeing with the result that the plug would been open or missing on arrival. It is also another reason to point the finger at Boeing.
 
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AlastairFraser

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Airbus is struggling with putting out 6 A220s a month, the last thing they'll want is another variant with a larger backlog increasing complexity for a supply line that can't build 6 aircraft a month.
I get that, but a guide to future timings wouldn't be amiss - even if it's as simple as saying "we will aim to complete this in the early 2030s".
 

YorkRailFan

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Agree 100%. My point was that a pressure test isn't going to increase the likelihood of bolts coming loose or already loose bolts coming out, and even with no bolts at all it will pass the pressure test as long as the plug remains in the correct position. A pressure test only gives an indication of something wrong if the plug it is already out of position and probably in imminent danger of being blown out - as apparently happened with the Alaska aircraft in its last few flights.

Edit: I've now watched the relevant part of the video
cited above. This does describe the correct function of the upper bolts, without mentioning the lower ones. It also suggests that pressurisation will make it more likely for loose bolts to come out, but as explained above, looking at the mechanism as described I can't see how that could be the case. No evidence is provided that makes me change that opinion.

Further, it suggests that Spirit may have supplied the fuselage with the plug installed but no bolts, and Boeing may not have removed so not discovered this situation. This is, I think, highly unlikely. I contend the means to dislodge the plug would be vibration when under little or no pressurisation, and this would be very likely to happen on the train journey to Boeing with the result that the plug would been open or missing on arrival. It is also another reason to point the finger at Boeing.
Agreed, think we're on the same page.
 

YorkRailFan

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I get that, but a guide to future timings wouldn't be amiss - even if it's as simple as saying "we will aim to complete this in the early 2030s".
I suspect Airbus will be holding their cards close to their chest. Airbus has the A220 and Boeing doesn't have anything really, Airbus has the upperhand and will use it when they suit best.
 

AlastairFraser

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I suspect Airbus will be holding their cards close to their chest. Airbus has the A220 and Boeing doesn't have anything really, Airbus has the upperhand and will use it when they suit best.
Makes sense, although it'll be interesting to see if Boeing goes for a cleansheet design for a 737 replacement and their market share rebounds then.
 

DanNCL

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Airbus has said that the A220-500 (sometimes referenced as the A221) is "a matter of when not if" but hasn't said when production will begin, Airbus doesn't want the A220-500 to cannabilise the A320neo, even though A320neo orders have peaked as the A321neo have skyrocketed and A320neo orders are slowing. That doesn't make the A320neo a mistake, it was by all means a great move by Airbus, its just the A321neo is outselling the A320neo.
The success of the A321neo is largely down to Boeing’s failure to provide a suitable replacement for the hundreds of ageing 757s that several airlines have. If it wasn’t for that then the A320 would still have been outselling the A321.
By scrapping the 797 in favour of the MAX 9 and MAX 10 Boeing have made a massive mistake, not only has the MAX been riddled with issues but it also doesn’t have the range of the 757 which means long time 757 users, even those who have smaller variants of the MAX, have gone for the A321neo as their 757 replacements. Examples include American, United, Icelandair and Aer Lingus.

Makes sense, although it'll be interesting to see if Boeing goes for a cleansheet design for a 737 replacement and their market share rebounds then.
I think the chances of the next single aisle aircraft from Boeing not being a clean sheet design are virtually zero after the disaster that the 737 MAX has been, and because of the ever growing need to fill the gap in the market that the 757 previously filled - Airbus currently have a monopoly in that market as the MAX 10 doesn’t have the range of the 757 and the 787-8 is too big.
 

YorkRailFan

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Makes sense, although it'll be interesting to see if Boeing goes for a cleansheet design for a 737 replacement and their market share rebounds then.
Boeing is collaborating with NASA on the X-66A which Boeing has pitched as a 737 replacement.
The success of the A321neo is largely down to Boeing’s failure to provide a suitable replacement for the hundreds of ageing 757s that several airlines have. If it wasn’t for that then the A320 would still have been outselling the A321.
By scrapping the 797 in favour of the MAX 9 and MAX 10 Boeing have made a massive mistake, not only has the MAX been riddled with issues but it also doesn’t have the range of the 757 which means long time 757 users, even those who have smaller variants of the MAX, have gone for the A321neo as their 757 replacements. Examples include American, United, Icelandair and Aer Lingus
I disagree that the A320neo would be outselling the A321neo if Boeing had a 757 replacement. The industry is moving towards larger narrowbodies, hence why Akasa recently ordered the 737-10 (as well as the 737-8-200) and more airlines are ordering the A321neo, this is at the sacrifice of the A330neo and 787-8 which have seen orders slow in recent years.
 

AlastairFraser

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I think the chances of the next single aisle aircraft from Boeing not being a clean sheet design are virtually zero after the disaster that the 737 MAX has been, and because of the ever growing need to fill the gap in the market that the 757 previously filled - Airbus currently have a monopoly in that market as the MAX 10 doesn’t have the range of the 757 and the 787-8 is too big.
Agreed - perhaps a question of how quickly they can create one, rather than if.
 

dosxuk

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I get that, but a guide to future timings wouldn't be amiss - even if it's as simple as saying "we will aim to complete this in the early 2030s".
Not if you're Airbus - they'd much rather the airlines got their orders placed now for the A320 queue rather than waiting till the new model is launched before ordering.
 

AlastairFraser

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Not if you're Airbus - they'd much rather the airlines got their orders placed now for the A320 queue rather than waiting till the new model is launched before ordering.
True, but is the A320 attractive to those airlines who would choose an A220-500?
 

najaB

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The real issue for United is that Airbus has a backlog stretching into the 2030's for more A321neos...
It seems that Airbus have come up with a cunning plan...

With a backlog stretching multiple years, Airbus is reportedly looking to take back delivery slots over the coming years for its Airbus A321neo as it looks to capitalize on a potential order from United Airlines amid the carrier hesitation over the Boeing 737 MAX 10.

Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reports that European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has been looking to buy back delivery slots from both airlines and lessors for its popular Airbus A321neo. This coincides with United Airlines' public denouncement of Boeing's 737 MAX 10 aircraft, given its delayed delivery timeline.

 

YorkRailFan

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The Irish low-cost carrier has noted an improvement in quality after checking recent deliveries from Boeing.Recent events have once again seen the Boeing 737 MAX family of next-generation narrowbody twinjets brought under closer scrutiny. However, while the type is proving divisive at some carriers due to safety concerns, Irish low-cost giant Ryanair remains confident in the aircraft, and has even offered to take any canceled orders. After being grounded for some 20 months after a pair of similar fatal accidents, the Boeing 737 MAX re-entered service in late 2020, and spent the next three years or so becoming a widespread presence in the skies. However, earlier this month, an incident in which the door of an Alaska Airlines MAX 9 blew out inflight has caused the type, once again, to become the center of heavy safety scrutiny.This has raised wider concerns regarding the safety not just of the MAX 9 model in isolation, but, rather, that of the aircraft family as a whole. This may have substantial ramifications for the MAX 7 and MAX 10 models, which are yet to enter service. For example, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby recently stated that his carrier is "going to at least build a plan that doesn't have the MAX 10 in it."
However, speaking today as the Irish budget airline reported its third-quarter financial results, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary criticized Scott Kirby's comments as being unhelpful. According to the Financial Times, he stated that:

"If United or any other airlines don't want to take their MAX 10 orders, we will be happy to step in."

Working with Boeing to ensure quality​

According to data from ch-aviation, United Airlines presently has some 277 examples of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 order, so a cancelation would certainly present a heavy hit for the US planemaker. Meanwhile, Ryanair itself has already signed up for 150 MAX 10s of its own, which, according to FlightGlobal, will begin arriving at the Irish low-cost carrier in 2027. It also has another 69 MAX 8-200s on order.While the airline's first deliveries of the MAX 10 are several years down the line, with the jet's largest variant still yet to be certified for commercial service, Ryanair is also open to earlier deliveries. Indeed, the Financial Times adds that O'Leary plans to talk to Boeing about receiving the type sooner if other carriers step back.
Of course, it isn't all sunshine and roses when it comes to Ryanair's relationship with Boeing. Indeed, as noted above, O'Leary has called on Boeing to improve its quality control in order to prevent the costs associated with delivery delays from being passed onto the airline's passengers. However, he noted today that certain important steps have now been made in this regard, stating that:

"We continue to work closely with Boeing to minimize delivery delays and improve quality control in both Wichita and Seattle. (...) We visited Seattle in January and met with Boeing's senior management. Boeing is increasing its QA resources in Wichita and Seattle. We have run extra checks on our recent 737 deliveries and have noted improvements in quality with fewer delivery defects."

No long-term disruption expected​

The door plug incident prompted airlines to ground their MAX 9s, with Alaska Airlines estimating that this would cost it $150 million. However, with the type neither part of Ryanair's current fleet nor its future plans, O'Leary adds that "we don't expect [the groundings] to affect the MAX 8 fleet or the MAX 10 certification."

Take this with a pinch of salt, this is Michael O'Leary after all, he will change his mind as often as I change underwear.

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian remains firm on holding 100 orders for the Boeing 737-10 MAX.
Delta Air Lines operates a mixed fleet, with a slight lean towards Boeing at 53.4%, according to ch-aviation data. But it's Boeing fleet is growing, and the carrier is awaiting a significant order of 100 737 MAX 10 - the largest of the Boeing narrowbody family. CEO Ed Bastian has made clear his confidence in Boeing, despite the recent Alaska Airlines’ Flight 1282 incident with a 737 9 MAX door plug.


“We need them to succeed”​

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian shared on business network CNBC’s popular morning show Squawk Box on January 19 his thoughts on Boeing’s situation:

“Boeing is such a vital part of our industry, our history, and that we need them to succeed and they're going through a tough time. There's no question about it. We fly over 500 Boeing jets every single day flawlessly.”
Although the majority of the interview, as you can watch below, was regarding Delta Air Lines’ credit card partnerships, the topic of Delta Air Lines' 100 Boeing 737-10 MAX order came up. Considering the press around the MAX series right now, it was an appropriate time to get confirmation that Delta Air Lines was still feeling positive about this order.
The week before, CEO Bastian shared with CNBC that,

“I’ve not lost confidence in Boeing – Boeing is so pivotal to our industry, our economy.”

Delta’s 737-10 MAX plans​

Delta Air Lines has had plans for the Boeing 737 10 MAX since at least 2022. When the order was first rumored in March 2022, Simple Flying put together this YouTube:There is also Simple Flying's ultimate guide to the Boeing 737 MAX family. The guide helps explain the 737 MAX family and its many capabilities.
With that, as of January 2024, the 737 10 MAX is still going through test flights to obtain final FAA certification to fly paying passengers. But Delta Air Lines is still committed to obtaining 100 Boeing 737 10 MAX jets – and it has made clear the 737 10 MAX purchase is part of its sustainability strategy, being 20-30% more efficient than the aircraft it replaces.

The efficiency of the MAX is primarily due to the large LEAP-1B turbofans that can generate 28,000 pounds of thrust per engine. THey are also quieter than previous generation engines, which makes airports happy.
Additionally, according to a Delta Air Lines factsheet, below will be the seating arrangement for each 737 10 MAX:

CLASSSEATS
First class20
Delta Comfort+33
Main Cabin129
Total182

Fuel efficiency key to 737-10 MAX confidence​

Delta Air Lines’ CEO Bastian’s confidence in the Boeing 737 10 MAX is well-placed. As The Air Current’s Jon Ostrower shared on the Airlines Confidential Podcast on January 17,

“From a performance perspective, the MAX is a very good airplane. It delivers the fuel efficiency that in economics that airlines expect. … You have customers who are ordering the airplane and in huge numbers. If you were to field an all-new airplane today based on the technology that is available, it wouldn’t be that much better than the MAX.”

Ostrower then explained that a new airplane would be “phenomenally disruptive” due to requiring new infrastructure.


Delta Air Lines is holding its order position in obtaining its fleet's Boeing 737-10 MAX, hoping for capacity and efficiency in an evolved package. But as CEO Bastian made clear to CNBC,

“We certainly will not take them [the 737-10 MAXs] until we have 1,000% confidence that that plane is fully secure, fully, fully safe, and everyone has signed off to that.”
Time will tell.

Not only Delta, but the industry needs Boeing to survive to provide Airbus with a competitor. Ideally there would be a third major player (Embraer is the third largest but doesn't compete with Airbus and Boeing on the larger narrowbody and widebody sectors) but a duopoly is far better than a monopoly.
 

edwin_m

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I'm not sure this will be popular with the airlines who ordered before United, or good for Airbus's reputation.
The link doesn't say so but I'm guessing this must be voluntary - allowing airlines with orders pending manufacture to cancel them without the usual penalties.
 

YorkRailFan

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Turkish Airlines conducting its first 737-9 MAX post-inspection revenue service. All five operators of the mid-cabin exit door plug 737-9 variant have now begun returning their fleet to service.
flightradar24.com/THY7ZH/33ca6894

Note the aircraft if flying East and not West over the EU as EASA still has their EAD in place. But that's all 737-9 operators which operate the 737-9 with a plug door returning their 737-9s back to service.
 

Peter Mugridge

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The link doesn't say so but I'm guessing this must be voluntary - allowing airlines with orders pending manufacture to cancel them without the usual penalties.
More likely postpone rather than cancel?

A lot of airlines are pushing some deliveries back anyway, so this could work out well for everyone ( except Boeing, of course... ).
 

edwin_m

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More likely postpone rather than cancel?

A lot of airlines are pushing some deliveries back anyway, so this could work out well for everyone ( except Boeing, of course... ).
I guess Airbus would prefer postponement to cancellation, as it extends their backlog which looks good in their accounts. But if I was an airline having doubts about being able to make money on the A321s I'd committed to pay for in say five years, I'm not sure I'd be too keen on pushing that date back a few more years when there's even more uncertainty ... and there might even be a new Boeing to choose instead.
 

YorkRailFan

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Turkish Airlines should receive the ten Boeing 737 MAX 8s in 2025.Turkish Airlines and Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DEA), a Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) lessor, have entered into an agreement for the airline to lease ten Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft from the UAE-based company. The 737 MAX 8s should be delivered to Turkish Airlines in 2025.According to Firoz Tarapore, the chief executive officer (CEO) of DAE, the aircraft lessor was delighted to continue its long-term partnership with Turkish Airlines with the latest agreement, providing a solution for the airline for its growing fleet requirements.

According to ch-aviation data, DAE manages a portfolio of 96 737 MAX family aircraft, 36 of which have been delivered. None of the currently active 737 MAXs managed or owned by DAE, one of which is the 737 MAX 9, are operated by Turkish Airlines, with the aircraft lessor delivering its 737 MAXs to Aeromexico, American Airlines, GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes (GOL), Icelandair, Norwegian, SmartLynx, and Virgin Australia.Meanwhile, Boeing’s Orders & Deliveries data showed that as of December 31, 2023, the manufacturer has 63 unfilled orders for the 737 MAX family. The lessor also manages other Boeing 737s, including a substantial fleet of 737-800 (90 aircraft), as well as Boeing 777 and Boeing 787 aircraft. The lessor has yet to deliver a single aircraft to Turkish Airlines. However, SunExpress, a joint venture between Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, operates a single Boeing 737-800 owned by DAE.Currently, the Turkish carrier operates 35 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, split between 30 737 MAX 8 and five 737 MAX 9, per ch-aviation data. The five 737 MAX 9s were grounded following the Alaska Airlines flight AS1282 incident on January 5, 2024, when a door plug blew out from the airline’s 737 MAX 9 aircraft as it was climbing.

According to Flightradar24, one Turkish Airlines 737 MAX 9 had already returned to service on January 29, with the aircraft, registered as TC-LYB, having operated its first flight since January 6.When Turkish Airlines presented its 2033 strategy, it outlined that its low-cost carrier brand, AnadoluJet, would not only get its own Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) but would be rebranded and grow substantially over the next decade. On January 7, 2024, AnadoluJet, now known as AJet, received its Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) from the Turkish Directorate General Of Civil Aviation (DGCA).The presentation detailed that AJet should grow from 94 aircraft in 2023 to 200 in 2033. In addition, Turkish Airlines plans the low-cost carrier to have 100% new-generation aircraft, namely Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAXs, by the latter timeframe, up from its current split of 37%. As a result, AJet will require a significant number of new aircraft, for which a limited number of delivery slots are available.Ch-aviation data also showed that Turkish Airlines is anticipating deliveries of 196 A321neo and six Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft. Considering that the full-service carrier has growth requirements of its own, it would be plausible that the ten Boeing 737 MAX 8s from DAE could end up being delivered to AJet.

Good news for Turkish and the lessor (doesn't really impact Boeing) and it compliments Turkish's order with Airbus last year when they ordered the A321neo but not the A320neo, the 737-8 can fill the gap of the A320neo.
 

Peter Mugridge

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I guess Airbus would prefer postponement to cancellation, as it extends their backlog which looks good in their accounts. But if I was an airline having doubts about being able to make money on the A321s I'd committed to pay for in say five years, I'm not sure I'd be too keen on pushing that date back a few more years when there's even more uncertainty ... and there might even be a new Boeing to choose instead.
True, but would they want to take the chance of being one of the first to have a completely new Boeing design in the current circumstances?
 

najaB

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But if I was an airline having doubts about being able to make money on the A321s I'd committed to pay for in say five years, I'm not sure I'd be too keen on pushing that date back a few more years when there's even more uncertainty ... and there might even be a new Boeing to choose instead.
Time value of money. A (made up figure) $10M cancellation penalty in 2035 or 2040 is an easier pill to swallow than a $10M cancellation penalty in 2030.
 

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The link doesn't say so but I'm guessing this must be voluntary - allowing airlines with orders pending manufacture to cancel them without the usual penalties.
No doubt aimed at the airlines who prematurely voiced confidence in the MAX (*cough*Delta*cough*)

If they’re confident in the MAX then they can have the MAX and leave the Airbus production lines free for those who don’t trust the MAX
 

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No doubt aimed at the airlines who prematurely voiced confidence in the MAX (*cough*Delta*cough*)

If they’re confident in the MAX then they can have the MAX and leave the Airbus production lines free for those who don’t trust the MAX
Delta is not going to cancel their Airbus order, they just ordered up to 40 A350-1000s a few weeks ago, they need the A321neo to replace their 757s and operate the A330neo. Many airlines operate both the MAX and NEO (United, Southwest, Air China, China Southern, ANA, China Eastern and more).
 

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Ryanair has told Boeing that if any U.S. customers refuse to take delivery of 737 MAX 10 aircraft, that it would buy them "at the right price," executives said on Monday.
The Irish airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, already has 150 firm orders for the MAX 10, the largest jet in the 737 family, and options for 150 more, with the first deliveries due in 2027.
Always on the lookout for a bargain.
 

TheSmiths82

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I don't like flying anyway, but I do wonder if having an entire fleet of 737's (mostly) will hurt Ryanair's reputation? I know the Max 10 wasn't anything to with the previous issues with the Max BUT I do think this latest incident raises concerns about the manufacturing processes at Boeing. I think I would rather pay a bit more than travel on an Airbus, even though I know the risk in mathematical terms is no worse with Boeing.
 

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