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4250 route kilometres of electrification - but which kilometres?

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Rhydgaled

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The rail industry decarbonisation taskforce have recommended additional electrification (roughly 4,250 route kilometres) to support the nation's net-zero carbon target. However, I have not been able to find any details of which routes they would be targeting. Does anyone have more information on this?

In the absence of any details, I thought I would try and work out what 4,250km of additional electrification looks like on the map. To this end I took to RailMiles and, starting with some key routes, tried to map this out. Attached is the map so far and a spreadsheet of the results from RailMiles. On the map, routes in blue are those currently electrified with OHLE or that I have assumed would/should be electrified outside of the 4,250km target. The routes in purple total 4251.277 kilometres of new OHLE (these sections are marked with green backgrounds on the spreadsheet). However that still left a number of routes that I thought should also be electrified, so I thought I would measure these in part to see how much this would increase the total and also to inform a debate on here about which should be included in the 4,250km. These additional routes are shown in red on both the map and the spreadsheet, they include Guildford-Reigate and the Uckfield branch which could be 3rd rail rather than OHLE. I did not get very far with the red routes before deciding I had neither sufficient time to spend on this nor sufficient knowledge of traffic levels (particularly freight and in the north of England). Anyone want to add to the spreadsheet for me?

In some cases I have measured connecting chords at triangular junctions, in others I have taken measurements from the station rather than a junction and assumed that the extra distance will cover the assocatied chords (eg. I assumed that measuring from both Basingstoke and Southampton to Salisbury would cover the south-to-east chord of the triangle to the east of Salisbury).

4250km-electrification.gif
 

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alistairlees

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At a glance

Add:
- all urban routes out of Manchester, so that everything going through the "core" is electric. That would mean Manchester - Wigan - Southport; Wigan - Kirkby; Bolton - Blackburn (and maybe beyond to Clitheroe / Colne); lines to New Mills; Buxton; Chester via Northwich
- do the same in Leeds area - especially the Harrogate loop; the Leeds - Wakefield K - Barnsley - Sheffield line; Castleford to Knottingley
- in South Yorks / Notts / Derbys / Lincs, do Sheffield - Retford - Gainsborough; Chesterfield to Nottingham; Doncaster to Gilberdyke
- fill in Nottingham to Grantham and Notts to Grantham
- consider Thorne to Immingham / Cleethorpes (a lot of freight!)
- Bath to Salisbury
- Frome to Taunton
- Chiltern routes to Aylesbury

Remove
- Newport to Crewe
- Shrewsbury to Chester via Wrexham
- Newcastle to Carlisle
- Carlisle to Kilmarnock
- Perth to Inverness
- Aberdeen to Inverness

I think the two would roughly balance.

Basically I'd concentrate on getting urban areas with large populations and the greatest potential increases to have 100% electric services (a few long distance ones excepted for now, which could be bi-mode anyway). This would result in a far better travel experience for far more people (read the thread on the Castlefield corridor) as well as having a greater CO2 impact.
 

hwl

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Do you have a link to their report or statement, or a news article about it please?
T1145.
The freight analysis was very poorly done so take what it says with pinch of salt (They started the follow up freight project T1160 months before the T1145 had finished if that gives you an idea... hence don't assume much of the Julian Worth freight analysis is include in the T1145). The initial base lining was also slightly off.
The electrification mileage (stkm) requirement virtually doubled in the last months of the project which suggests the modelling is very sensitive to some inputs.
Huge levels of making sure everything under the wires / on 3rd rail is on electric.

Some heroic assumptions e.g. 4,000 stkm to 80% decarbonisation but only an extra 250stkm to net decarbonisation.
 

hwl

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At a glance

Add:
- all urban routes out of Manchester, so that everything going through the "core" is electric. That would mean Manchester - Wigan - Southport; Wigan - Kirkby; Bolton - Blackburn (and maybe beyond to Clitheroe / Colne); lines to New Mills; Buxton; Chester via Northwich
- do the same in Leeds area - especially the Harrogate loop; the Leeds - Wakefield K - Barnsley - Sheffield line; Castleford to Knottingley
- in South Yorks / Notts / Derbys / Lincs, do Sheffield - Retford - Gainsborough; Chesterfield to Nottingham; Doncaster to Gilberdyke
- fill in Nottingham to Grantham and Notts to Grantham
- consider Thorne to Immingham / Cleethorpes (a lot of freight!)
- Bath to Salisbury
- Frome to Taunton
- Chiltern routes to Aylesbury

Remove
- Newport to Crewe
- Shrewsbury to Chester via Wrexham
- Newcastle to Carlisle
- Carlisle to Kilmarnock
- Perth to Inverness
- Aberdeen to Inverness

I think the two would roughly balance.

Basically I'd concentrate on getting urban areas with large populations and the greatest potential increases to have 100% electric services (a few long distance ones excepted for now, which could be bi-mode anyway). This would result in a far better travel experience for far more people (read the thread on the Castlefield corridor) as well as having a greater CO2 impact.

Agreed - Plenty of bonkers low priority stuff on the OP's list: Gretna - Kilmarnock!!!

Focus of 4tph + routes. It also assumes Hydrogen is green i.e. zero carbon not brown which is a big ask and ignored all the compression and transmission losses associated they Hydrogen.

I.e. the actual stkm would be more would be more.
 

Rhydgaled

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I will try and add to this . Julian Worth gave details on the top 10 freight routes. I assume you have that information?
If it was published in Modern Railways in the past year or two I'll have it somewhere, but cannot remember which issue it was in. All I remembered from the Modern Railways article was that the two quaries west of Westbury were included on the list of freight priorities so I made sure to include those.

Do you have a link to their report or statement, or a news article about it please?
At the time of writing the final report can be downloaded from this page (scroll down; the download link is near the bottom).

Some heroic assumptions e.g. 4,000 stkm to 80% decarbonisation but only an extra 250stkm to net decarbonisation.
It actually does say "route km", not stkm. The extra 250km for a further 20% decarbonisation does seem heroic (especially given the adage that 20% of the work gets you 80% of the gain, and vice versa) but I'm running with it because, 4000 or 4250, it is still alot more than the current Westminister policy of next to no new electrification (with a few exceptions such as Didcot-Oxford which are not officially cancelled to my knowledge).

Agreed - Plenty of bonkers low priority stuff on the OP's list: Gretna - Kilmarnock!!
My (lack of) knowledge regarding freight flows showing there; I included it largely on the basis of assuming a fair amount of WCML freight might go that way (Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster included for a similar reason). I was also led somewhat by the Transport Scotland's rather more forward-looking rail policy at present; namely a net-zero by 2035 target. Modern Railways has pretty much confirmed that the plan involves electrification of the whole Inter7City network (including Aberdeen-Inverness). That makes quite a bit of sense actually given that they are currently using 40+ year-old HSTs on the network. Getting a return on the investment of fitting them with power doors probably requires keeping them going until at least 2030, by which time procurement of new diesels will be even more perverse than it is already.
 

hwl

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And moved to "speculative" when it is actually discussion of the detail of an RSSB policy document where the detail isn't public and the speculation is on the detail not random speculation ideas that the speculative ideas dead end was designed for...
 

hwl

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If it was published in Modern Railways in the past year or two I'll have it somewhere, but cannot remember which issue it was in. All I remembered from the Modern Railways article was that the two quaries west of Westbury were included on the list of freight priorities so I made sure to include those.

At the time of writing the final report can be downloaded from this page (scroll down; the download link is near the bottom).

It actually does say "route km", not stkm. The extra 250km for a further 20% decarbonisation does seem heroic (especially given the adage that 20% of the work gets you 80% of the gain, and vice versa) but I'm running with it because, 4000 or 4250, it is still alot more than the current Westminister policy of next to no new electrification (with a few exceptions such as Didcot-Oxford which are not officially cancelled to my knowledge).

My (lack of) knowledge regarding freight flows showing there; I included it largely on the basis of assuming a fair amount of WCML freight might go that way (Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster included for a similar reason). I was also led somewhat by the Transport Scotland's rather more forward-looking rail policy at present; namely a net-zero by 2035 target. Modern Railways has pretty much confirmed that the plan involves electrification of the whole Inter7City network (including Aberdeen-Inverness). That makes quite a bit of sense actually given that they are currently using 40+ year-old HSTs on the network. Getting a return on the investment of fitting them with power doors probably requires keeping them going until at least 2030, by which time procurement of new diesels will be even more perverse than it is already.

The core issue with electrification is DfT not having any money and a treasury spending review overdue.
 

Dunfanaghy Rd

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Do I see it right? Is Leamington to Coventry not included?
It would be good to see the Electric Spine re-emerge, but direct to Brum, not disappearing eastwards. Most of the freight from Southampton runs to Brum and the North-west, not towards Sheffield etc.
Pat
 

hwl

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Expect to see a nice map in rail engineer shortly.
 
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