Many consider that the super-high frequencies introduced in recent years are unjustified going forward, and Avanti duly removed the third hourly train to Birmingham and Manchester in November 2020. There is a good argument for half-hourly services between major cities, but no more, with one train an hour from London and Birmingham to smaller cities such as Plymouth. Crucially, with much lower business and long-distance commuting volumes, the standard hourly service would need little or no augmentation in the peak.
The quantum of rolling stock for this level of service needs careful analysis by diagrammers, but initial analysis suggests that somewhere around 40-45 Intercity Express Trains (IETs) might potentially be freed up from Great Western, LNER and TransPennine. It remains to be seen which, if any, open access passenger operations will survive, but a deal with First Group to take on the Hull Trains and East Coast Trains IETs would generate another 10 sets, making 50-55 sets in total.
This would enable Cross Country's Bristol and Bournemouth to Manchester and the Reading/Southampton to Newcastle route to be turned over to IETs. It would also allow many, if not all, the Plymouth to Edinburgh services to be converted to bi-mode operation. The cascade would have significant capacity benefits by replacing four-car sets with five-car units (containing more seats per vehicle) thereby largely eliminating overcrowding.
