4-SUB 4732
Established Member
- Joined
- 7 Jan 2018
- Messages
- 2,150
Okay, number crunching time.
Randomly selecting data from 01/11 to 21/11 in both 2020 and 2021 for cases, and 15/11 to 05/12 in the same years for deaths. This is to let the effects start to filter through.
01/11 to 21/11, average daily cases of around 22268 detected. This went to 15/11 to 05/12 deaths of an average of 448 a day. This is 2020.
Due to incomplete death data, you can only use 01/11 to 15/11 in 2021 with a daily average of 37096 cases. Corresponding deaths 15/11 to 29/11 was an average of 123 a day.
Testing was around 330,000 a day in 2020, but 890,000 a day at the moment. Translating this is to multiply the figures for cases in 2020 by 2.7, so more like 60,056 cases a day.
A simple cases detected / deaths figure then for 2020 is 134, whilst 2021 would be 302. This suggests COVID at its most basic is now 125% more survivable, and doesn’t take into account (now) boosters, new treatments approved and more bed availability due to less in hospital.
Today, around 770 people a day are going to hospital, and this time last year was 1405. So 46% less people are going in to hospital.
About 7,444 people are in hospital for COVID, last year was 16,197. A 54% drop.
Basic ratio of cases:admissions is 2020 is 3.71:1. 2021 now is 4.98:1, so a 26% reduction Year-on-year.
The data is good, and variables such as more vaccinations and better treatment mean it will be getting better. Testing is soaring by 11.1% at the moment, but cases are only rising by 9.1%.
Other countries with rises locally are France (45%) and Italy (23%). France has draconian and discriminatory conditions on citizens, we do not. UK deaths continue to fall by 2% week-on-week; yet the likes of France (48%), Germany (22%) and Israel (15%) all have rises.
So why are we panicking?
Randomly selecting data from 01/11 to 21/11 in both 2020 and 2021 for cases, and 15/11 to 05/12 in the same years for deaths. This is to let the effects start to filter through.
01/11 to 21/11, average daily cases of around 22268 detected. This went to 15/11 to 05/12 deaths of an average of 448 a day. This is 2020.
Due to incomplete death data, you can only use 01/11 to 15/11 in 2021 with a daily average of 37096 cases. Corresponding deaths 15/11 to 29/11 was an average of 123 a day.
Testing was around 330,000 a day in 2020, but 890,000 a day at the moment. Translating this is to multiply the figures for cases in 2020 by 2.7, so more like 60,056 cases a day.
A simple cases detected / deaths figure then for 2020 is 134, whilst 2021 would be 302. This suggests COVID at its most basic is now 125% more survivable, and doesn’t take into account (now) boosters, new treatments approved and more bed availability due to less in hospital.
Today, around 770 people a day are going to hospital, and this time last year was 1405. So 46% less people are going in to hospital.
About 7,444 people are in hospital for COVID, last year was 16,197. A 54% drop.
Basic ratio of cases:admissions is 2020 is 3.71:1. 2021 now is 4.98:1, so a 26% reduction Year-on-year.
The data is good, and variables such as more vaccinations and better treatment mean it will be getting better. Testing is soaring by 11.1% at the moment, but cases are only rising by 9.1%.
Other countries with rises locally are France (45%) and Italy (23%). France has draconian and discriminatory conditions on citizens, we do not. UK deaths continue to fall by 2% week-on-week; yet the likes of France (48%), Germany (22%) and Israel (15%) all have rises.
So why are we panicking?