An alternative East-West route and end station

[William3000]

@William3000

As of the 2021 United Kingdom census, the population of Cambridge was only 145,700. It is not surrounded by large dormitory urban areas outwith the formal city boundaries, like Manchester, but by green fields and rural villages. Its main station is very poorly sited for commuting, and Cambridge North would not be served directly by East-West rail.

"St Neots, Bedford, Bicester, Coventry, Luton Airport, Luton, Milton Keynes, Birmingham Airport, Wellingborough, Northampton, Oxford. etc." Of these settlements, how many are cities? - just Oxford and Coventry, and the latter already has rail access from Cambridge by changing at Nuneaton. There will be minimal demand for travel from Cambridge to Birmingham Airport, given that Stansted Airport, with a wide range of services, is nearly on Cambridge's doorstep.

@William3000

As of the 2021 United Kingdom census, the population of Cambridge was only 145,700. It is not surrounded by large dormitory urban areas outwith the formal city boundaries, like Manchester, but by green fields and rural villages. Its main station is very poorly sited for commuting, and Cambridge North would not be served directly by East-West rail.

"St Neots, Bedford, Bicester, Coventry, Luton Airport, Luton, Milton Keynes, Birmingham Airport, Wellingborough, Northampton, Oxford. etc." Of these settlements, how many are cities? - just Oxford and Coventry, and the latter already has rail access from Cambridge by changing at Nuneaton. There will be minimal demand for travel from Cambridge to Birmingham Airport, given that Stansted Airport, with a wide range of services, is nearly on Cambridge's doorstep.

What you say about Cambridge (central) being poorly sited for commuting used to be true but it’s now in the heart of the busy CB1 development and home to major companies including Apple, Amazon, Deloitte etc.

Milton Keynes is also now a city but that’s not really the point. At present all of those journeys practically require a car - and Cambridge to Coventry via Nuneaton takes nearly 3 hours - it’s actually marginally quicker sometimes via London. In contrast the car journey takes about 1hr 25.

You’re right that Stansted Airport is very close but it tends only to have short hall flights whereas Birmingham has more long haul operators like Gatwick. Gatwick airport is further to Cambridge than Birmingham Airport but has a direct rail link.

@William3000

As of the 2021 United Kingdom census, the population of Cambridge was only 145,700. It is not surrounded by large dormitory urban areas outwith the formal city boundaries, like Manchester, but by green fields and rural villages. Its main station is very poorly sited for commuting, and Cambridge North would not be served directly by East-West rail.

"St Neots, Bedford, Bicester, Coventry, Luton Airport, Luton, Milton Keynes, Birmingham Airport, Wellingborough, Northampton, Oxford. etc." Of these settlements, how many are cities? - just Oxford and Coventry, and the latter already has rail access from Cambridge by changing at Nuneaton. There will be minimal demand for travel from Cambridge to Birmingham Airport, given that Stansted Airport, with a wide range of services, is nearly on Cambridge's doorstep.

It’s proposed that some services on East West rail would continue to Notwich and Ipswich - the Norwich ones would stop at Cambridge North.

Not sure what doubling to Newmarket achieves - it's not a freight route and the trains along it come from further afield, so there isn't capacity to uplift the service.

Soham would mean some kind of "circular" service, as well as new track - I can't see a Cambridge - Ely via Soham service working, not least because of capacity constraints at Ely which even if addressed would have other, more deserving cases for the freed up paths.

You won't get a busway to Mildenhall, not least because it would be shadowing the railway to Newmarket - which you want to double.

The only sensible option for Haverhill will be bus based. The challenge with both Haverhill and Mildenhall is they are outside Cambridgeshire so would need Suffolk to be interested and able to part fund it.

Redoubling Cambridge to Newmarket would allow an increase in frequencies between Cambridge and Newmarket from the current 1 train per hour which compared unfavourably with Cambridge to Ely and Cambridge to Royston (similar sized places that typically get 4 trains per hour), as well as Audley End (Saffron Walden’s railhead) which typically gets 3 trains per hour.

It would also enable new stations at Cambridge East (by Tesco in Fulbourn) close to employment sites at Capital Park, and the Petehouse Technology Park (and the future Cambridge East development of 10,000+ homes and thousands more jobs. It would also offer potential for reopening stations at Fulbourn, Six Mile Bottom, the Snailwell chord, and direct trains to Soham.

Since it’s future it’s likely to form part of East West rail’s eastern leg, it’s use for freight May increase providing a direct link from Felixstowe to Oxford and the South West and Midlands avoiding London and taking pressure off Ely North junction.

Not sure about Cambridge being economically more important than Cov, but certainly it punches above it's weight and outranks many larger towns in the region. BIB is key, Universities attract high-value technical, technological and research-based companies, and Oxford and Cambridge as 2 extremely good univerisities attract proportionately more and higher value companies than other universities like those in the Russel group.

Coventry is twice the size of Cambridge but Cambridge station despite being less well connected to many places than Coventry - Coventry being a major stop on services between Southampton/Oxford/Reading and Birmingham/Stoke/Manchester as well as being on the West Coast Mainline spur to Birmingham New St. in spite of this - Cambridge station typically handles over 50% more passengers than Coventry.

 

[Dunnyrail]

And increasingly further afield - my current employer has people commuting in from Bury St Edmunds, Huntingdon and Bedford!


I'm not sure where @daodao is coming from, given that recently an additional station in the North of the city has opened and is soon to be joined by a counterpart on the southern edge - which may well be served by east west rail and serves one of the biggest new employment areas in the city.

The 2021 census figure doesn't really add anything as the city outgrew its boundaries years ago. Lots of the new housing has been built outside of the city council area and is technically in Cambridgeshire itself.

Don't forget that pre-covid pandemic the coach service between Cambridge and Oxford required a capacity upgrade almost immediately after new coaches were purchased for the services - despite the half hourly frequency it wasn't unusual to have a well-filled coach at least as far as Milton Keynes, often taking on another full load bound for Oxford upon arrival there. The limited capacity and now split of the service is suppressing demand on the route more than anything.

Interesting what you say, some of the current thinking in the area appears to favour a Northern route into Cambridge missing Cambridge South Station, that to me appears madness as there are many who need to access the hospital there. Since the Re-introduction of the X5 after Covid it now only runs to Bedford x Oxford. A dumbed down 905 runs Bedford to Cambridge, whilst there has been some faffing around with the schedules the last one is much earlier than X5 days thus a night out in Cambridge tends to put people in their cars, similarly with many commuters who liked to coaches with a Toilet facility and options for bikes in the luggage compartment. Sadly many more are using their cars and not just St.Neots but also Bedford. At least the A428 duelling from Black Cat to Caxton will be their saviour, well not really as it will just mean the queue into Cambridge will reach back to Maddingly and likely back onto the A428. East West is desperately needed and soon, but as has been said likely cancelled or at best a couple of decades away.

 

[Magdalia]

Coventry is twice the size of Cambridge but Cambridge station despite being less well connected to many places than Coventry - Coventry being a major stop on services between Southampton/Oxford/Reading and Birmingham/Stoke/Manchester as well as being on the West Coast Mainline spur to Birmingham New St. in spite of this - Cambridge station typically handles over 50% more passengers than Coventry.

From a transport perspective the big difference between Cambridge and Coventry is the road network.

Coventry has east-west (A45) and north-south (A46) arterial dual carriageways through the city, and a dual carriageway inner city ring road.

In contrast Cambridge has almost no dual carriageway roads at all, and what is laughably labelled the ring road is mostly just single carriageway suburban roads.

The Cambridge road network is already over capacity, which is why the train is already a very popular way to travel in and out of the city, and why Cambridge needs more rail capacity.

 

[William3000]

Interesting what you say, some of the current thinking in the area appears to favour a Northern route into Cambridge missing Cambridge South Station, that to me appears madness as there are many who need to access the hospital there. Since the Re-introduction of the X5 after Covid it now only runs to Bedford x Oxford. A dumbed down 905 runs Bedford to Cambridge, whilst there has been some faffing around with the schedules the last one is much earlier than X5 days thus a night out in Cambridge tends to put people in their cars, similarly with many commuters who liked to coaches with a Toilet facility and options for bikes in the luggage compartment. Sadly many more are using their cars and not just St.Neots but also Bedford. At least the A428 duelling from Black Cat to Caxton will be their saviour, well not really as it will just mean the queue into Cambridge will reach back to Maddingly and likely back onto the A428. East West is desperately needed and soon, but as has been said likely cancelled or at best a couple of decades away.

The northern route isn’t seriously being considered because it ends up facing the wrong way - it was dismissed by the EWR Company - it’s just a lobby group that don’t want it in their back yard along the southern approach.

Interesting what you say, some of the current thinking in the area appears to favour a Northern route into Cambridge missing Cambridge South Station, that to me appears madness as there are many who need to access the hospital there. Since the Re-introduction of the X5 after Covid it now only runs to Bedford x Oxford. A dumbed down 905 runs Bedford to Cambridge, whilst there has been some faffing around with the schedules the last one is much earlier than X5 days thus a night out in Cambridge tends to put people in their cars, similarly with many commuters who liked to coaches with a Toilet facility and options for bikes in the luggage compartment. Sadly many more are using their cars and not just St.Neots but also Bedford. At least the A428 duelling from Black Cat to Caxton will be their saviour, well not really as it will just mean the queue into Cambridge will reach back to Maddingly and likely back onto the A428. East West is desperately needed and soon, but as has been said likely cancelled or at best a couple of decades away.

I fear you’re right and it will be cancelled - sadly the Tory MP for South Cambs seems to oppose it despite the huge benefits it will deliver for his constituents

 

[zwk500]

Coventry is twice the size of Cambridge but Cambridge station despite being less well connected to many places than Coventry - Coventry being a major stop on services between Southampton/Oxford/Reading and Birmingham/Stoke/Manchester as well as being on the West Coast Mainline spur to Birmingham New St. in spite of this - Cambridge station typically handles over 50% more passengers than Coventry.

Train passenger numbers aren't the sole measure of economic importance. Coventry is a distribution and logistics hub as well as having several major manufacturing plants. But let's not distract from the point - Cambridge is economically significant to the UK and more than punches above it's weight in terms of location or population.

Interesting what you say, some of the current thinking in the area appears to favour a Northern route into Cambridge missing Cambridge South Station, that to me appears madness as there are many who need to access the hospital there.

No, the northern route hasn't been current thinking for a long time. Corridor E was announced as the preferred route a while back and that joins the Royston branch near Foxton to run into Cambridge South.

Since the Re-introduction of the X5 after Covid it now only runs to Bedford x Oxford.

This is poor, when I used the X5 it was always well used beyond Bedford, despite the last bus being quite early.

 

[A0wen]

This is poor, when I used the X5 it was always well used beyond Bedford, despite the last bus being quite early.

Reported elsewhere - but back in 2020, Stagecoach split the X5 so it only ran Bedford - Oxford and introduced a new service, the 905 running Bedford - Cambridge.

For the latter they used double-deck vehicles, presumably the loadings were such that it justified larger vehicles on that section and there probably weren't many people travelling from points west of Bedford to points east of Bedford.

From a transport perspective the big difference between Cambridge and Coventry is the road network.

Coventry has east-west (A45) and north-south (A46) arterial dual carriageways through the city, and a dual carriageway inner city ring road.

In contrast Cambridge has almost no dual carriageway roads at all, and what is laughably labelled the ring road is mostly just single carriageway suburban roads.

The Cambridge road network is already over capacity, which is why the train is already a very popular way to travel in and out of the city, and why Cambridge needs more rail capacity.

Within the confines of the city centre - you are correct, but it's worth pointing out that Coventry *is much larger* (38sq mi compared to 15 sq mi). It was also pretty much destroyed in WW2 leading to a large scale post war rebuild and it doesn't have a historic university obstructing pretty much any development.

Though around Cambridge the road network has been improved there are still some pretty substandard roads for the traffic they carry - the A10 to Ely being an example.

Redoubling Cambridge to Newmarket would allow an increase in frequencies between Cambridge and Newmarket from the current 1 train per hour which compared unfavourably with Cambridge to Ely and Cambridge to Royston (similar sized places that typically get 4 trains per hour), as well as Audley End (Saffron Walden’s railhead) which typically gets 3 trains per hour.

It would also enable new stations at Cambridge East (by Tesco in Fulbourn) close to employment sites at Capital Park, and the Petehouse Technology Park (and the future Cambridge East development of 10,000+ homes and thousands more jobs. It would also offer potential for reopening stations at Fulbourn, Six Mile Bottom, the Snailwell chord, and direct trains to Soham.

The bit you're missing though is Royston and others only get the level of service to Cambridge they do by virtue of the fact they are on a route which is providing a service from further afield to Cambridge and for which there is more demand to begin with. So in Royston's case it's on a London - Cambridge route, whereas Newmarket is on an Ipswich - Cambridge route, a route which in the 1990s was so busy that its capacity could be handled by (checks notes) a Class 153. Whereas since electrification the Royston services have always been at least 4 car and reasonably well used.

As for a station at Fulbourn - that's ridiculous. All you'll do is slow down the services as they would be having to start / stop all the time. Cambridge North made some sense because of the science park there, south might just make sense - but others ? Really ?

Six Mile Bottom is in the middle of nowhere - there is precisely no justification for a station there, even as a "parkway". And direct trains to Soham going where ? Cambridge - Soham - Ely ? You'd need paths between Soham and Ely, space at Cambridge to terminate them and a bunch of other stuff. Not happening.

Since it’s future it’s likely to form part of East West rail’s eastern leg, it’s use for freight May increase providing a direct link from Felixstowe to Oxford and the South West and Midlands avoiding London and taking pressure off Ely North junction.

Can I refer you to previous posts which have pointed out that Newmarket tunnel is gauge restricted ? I'm sure @zwk500 won't mind me quoting https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...vision-on-the-line.225337/page-3#post-5774490

And what freight is there which is trying to travel from Oxford to Felixstowe and the South West exactly ? It's all well and good saying it creates a link, but if it isn't linking places where there is demand, there is precisely no point. Most of the freight from Felixstowe is heading towards the Midlands, which is why it's routed via Ely and it's also why capacity constraints at Ely are an issue which leads to some being routed via London.

AIUI the only bit of EWR which freight will use is the Southampton - north west as it'll then be routed via Bletchley and the WCML rather than through the West Mids - per this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-west-rail-hs2-freight-opportunities.233941/#post-6104967

 

[70014IronDuke]

Bedford is definitely a marginal traffic generator. With Wixams station the loss of the Marston vale would not be too hard a brake. But now you've changed from changing EWR to only building 2/3rds of EWR and then building a completely separate route.

No, I haven't changed. But perhaps I didn't spell it out clearly enough early on. The rational behind my original post was that, at some time in the not too distant future, the government comes out with some well spun announcement that "having carefully examined all possible scenarios" blah blah, the conclusion is that "extending E-W rail from Bedford to Cambridge will not be economically viable".

ie the latter phase is nixed, end of that story. (For the record, I hope it isn't, but I give it only a 20% chance of happening in the current economic climate. I'll be happy to be proved wrong.)

And if that is the case, could an alternative route, with far less new track building, work by connecting Northampton to Wellinboro' and then a south-east curve at Manton. This would not be promoted as a route to Cambridge, but as a link to Peterboro'. It now turns out that the old formation in Northampton has been so built over that this really is a non-starter. North of Northampton is so hilly that it's unlikely anything could be built with a southern entry into Kettering, and a northern entry means reversing there. Neither will happen, IMO.

(I was not saying that any of the above would be preferrable to the Bedford - St Neots - Cambridge option. That is still the option I prefer - but if it's nixed - what alternative might be possible?)

And useful as it would be to feed into the MML at Mkt Harboro and Leicester, that is also not going to happen, IMO.

Assuming Bedford - Cambridge is cancelled, I think there is a 25% chance that ultimately a new chord at Manton will be put in as a 'botched job' allowing E-W connectivity to Peterboro.

Well it wouldn't, because there's a bus that runs between Northampton and Corby that doesn't get much ridership but there's a bus between MKC and Bedford that very much does get busy ridership. The X5 was usually about half full when I boarded at MK and ran with a decent (2/3rds+) load to Bedford, where it went back down to 1/2 full.

Yes. savings with modern maintenance machinery for equivalent route KM of single track vs double track are minimal. You don't have any signal boxes to close, plain line is simple to maintain, and then you add more points and interlocking by needing loops etc. Salisbury-Exeter has cost millions to put back.
Preston-Ormskirk and Exeter-Barnstable are slightly different as the branches can run with very few track circuits and signals one the branch splits off, working OTS principles. That wouldn't be possible on the Marston Vale as you can't isolate the branch at either end for operational reasons with the depots and sidings.

I don't want to see Bletchley - Bedford closed or singled. But in the real world, if some sensible route from Northampton to Peterboro could be drawn up, closure of the Marston VAle and consequent savings would add to the business case.

It was you who said "If you are keeping Bedford-Bletchley, a 2nd route between the WCML and MML makes no sense."

So I was saying - OK, then close the southern route.

I also agree that singling has proved to be a false economy in many cases, but that has only been proven usually decades later - with obvious exceptions like Yeovil Jcn to Sherborne.

 

[zwk500]

ie the latter phase is nixed, end of that story. (For the record, I hope it isn't, but I give it only a 20% chance of happening in the current economic climate. I'll be happy to be proved wrong.)

Quite probably, sadly.

Assuming Bedford - Cambridge is cancelled, I think there is a 25% chance that ultimately a new chord at Manton will be put in as a 'botched job' allowing E-W connectivity to Peterboro.

I'd put it closer to 2.5% or even 0.25%. A Manton chord really doesn't stack up. If Bedford-Cambridge doesn't happen then EWR will stop at Bedford and that'll be that (as you mentioned above). Flows from MK and points west would have the alternative of Nuneaton and the XC which is likely to be competitive journey time against EWR and a not overly fast turn up to Stamford.

I also agree that singling has proved to be a false economy in many cases, but that has only been proven usually decades later - with obvious exceptions like Yeovil Jcn to Sherborne.

Tbf Yeovil Jnc to Sherborne is still proving to be a false economy because it's constraining service growth.

 

[A0wen]

I'd put it closer to 2.5% or even 0.25%. A Manton chord really doesn't stack up. If Bedford-Cambridge doesn't happen then EWR will stop at Bedford and that'll be that (as you mentioned above). Flows from MK and points west would have the alternative of Nuneaton and the XC which is likely to be competitive journey time against EWR and a not overly fast turn up to Stamford.

If you were looking MKC to Peterborough, I'd tend to agree there's not much in it *if* you're talking about a new line between Northampton and the MML.

Currently MK - Peterborough via Nuneaton takes 1h 52m (travel time) plus an absurd 50 minute connection wait at Nuneaton.

Compare that to

MK - Northampton is circa 20 mins. (current LNW services)
Kettering to Manton Junc is 30 mins (current EMR Melton services)
Manton - Peterborough is ~30 mins (current XC from Real Train Times)

So unless a link from Northampton to the MML could get you to Kettering in something like 10 mins (which you can't) you're talking a less than 30 minute journey time saving.

Even if you took the view of extending EWR services from Bedford to Peterborough, I'm not sure it works - the figures above Kettering - Manton - Peterborough (60 mins) still apply, Bedford - Kettering is a further 20 mins, so then the big question is what Bedford - Bletchley could be ? Though it's unlikely to be less than 20 mins at its fastest.

 

[Magdalia]

Within the confines of the city centre - you are correct, but it's worth pointing out that Coventry *is much larger* (38sq mi compared to 15 sq mi). It was also pretty much destroyed in WW2 leading to a large scale post war rebuild and it doesn't have a historic university obstructing pretty much any development.

That's exactly why Cambridge relies much more heavily on rail than Coventry.

As for a station at Fulbourn - that's ridiculous.

No it isn't. Fulbourn is a developing employment hub with Capital Park adjacent to the railway and Peterhouse Technology Park nearby.

Six Mile Bottom is in the middle of nowhere

Six Mile Bottom is adjacent to the A11 and has potential for a Parkway station for large parts of West Suffolk. Being "in the middle of nowhere" means plenty of space for a car park.

Newmarket is on an Ipswich - Cambridge route, a route which in the 1990s was so busy that its capacity could be handled by (checks notes) a Class 153.

That was lack of resources not lack of demand. When a class 153 was turned out (trains were usually class 156) evening peak passengers for Newmarket used to be put on a relief bus because there was no room on the train. Trains are now 4 car class 755s.

Royston services have always been at least 4 car and reasonably well used.

When Royston trains were 4 cars they were full and standing at peak times and with a bike ban because there was no space. Same applied on the Ely line. Traffic has grown further since 8 car operation started. Note that, whilst the Kings Cross-Cambridge stopping service is hourly off peak (with others turning at Letchworth) it now has to be every 30 minutes at peak times to cope with demand at the Cambridge end.

And what freight is there which is trying to travel from Oxford to Felixstowe and the South West exactly ?

Felixstowe to Wentloog (Cardiff) already happens, look them up on Real Time Trains. They are currently routed via the North London line.

Realtime Trains | 4L36 0739 Wentloog (Freightliners) to Felixstowe North F.L.T. | 14/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 4L36 0739 departure from Wentloog (Freightliners) to Felixstowe North F.L.T. on 14/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Nottingham59]

Even if you took the view of extending EWR services from Bedford to Peterborough, I'm not sure it works - the figures above Kettering - Manton - Peterborough (60 mins) still apply, Bedford - Kettering is a further 20 mins, so then the big question is what Bedford - Bletchley could be ? Though it's unlikely to be less than 20 mins at its fastest.

Yes, but ...

• Peterborough to Manton Junction is 22 mins: (IN67 today)
• Manton Jn to Kettering is 24 mins (1M51 today)

Adding your 20 mins Bedford-Kettering and 20 mins Bletchley-Bedford gives 86 mins Bletchley to Peterborough. How does that compare to going the long way round via Nuneaton?

Realtime Trains | 1N67 1821 Stansted Airport to Birmingham New Street | 14/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 1N67 1821 departure from Stansted Airport to Birmingham New Street on 14/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Realtime Trains | 1M51 1938 Kettering to Melton Mowbray | 14/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 1M51 1938 departure from Kettering to Melton Mowbray on 14/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Realtime Trains | 1Y51 1847 St Pancras International to Kettering | 14/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 1Y51 1847 departure from St Pancras International to Kettering on 14/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Once EWR is running from Oxford to Bedford, I do still think a S-E chord at Manton could be useful.

 

[William3000]

Reported elsewhere - but back in 2020, Stagecoach split the X5 so it only ran Bedford - Oxford and introduced a new service, the 905 running Bedford - Cambridge.

For the latter they used double-deck vehicles, presumably the loadings were such that it justified larger vehicles on that section and there probably weren't many people travelling from points west of Bedford to points east of Bedford.



Within the confines of the city centre - you are correct, but it's worth pointing out that Coventry *is much larger* (38sq mi compared to 15 sq mi). It was also pretty much destroyed in WW2 leading to a large scale post war rebuild and it doesn't have a historic university obstructing pretty much any development.

Though around Cambridge the road network has been improved there are still some pretty substandard roads for the traffic they carry - the A10 to Ely being an example.



The bit you're missing though is Royston and others only get the level of service to Cambridge they do by virtue of the fact they are on a route which is providing a service from further afield to Cambridge and for which there is more demand to begin with. So in Royston's case it's on a London - Cambridge route, whereas Newmarket is on an Ipswich - Cambridge route, a route which in the 1990s was so busy that its capacity could be handled by (checks notes) a Class 153. Whereas since electrification the Royston services have always been at least 4 car and reasonably well used.

As for a station at Fulbourn - that's ridiculous. All you'll do is slow down the services as they would be having to start / stop all the time. Cambridge North made some sense because of the science park there, south might just make sense - but others ? Really ?

Six Mile Bottom is in the middle of nowhere - there is precisely no justification for a station there, even as a "parkway". And direct trains to Soham going where ? Cambridge - Soham - Ely ? You'd need paths between Soham and Ely, space at Cambridge to terminate them and a bunch of other stuff. Not happening.



Can I refer you to previous posts which have pointed out that Newmarket tunnel is gauge restricted ? I'm sure @zwk500 won't mind me quoting https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...vision-on-the-line.225337/page-3#post-5774490

And what freight is there which is trying to travel from Oxford to Felixstowe and the South West exactly ? It's all well and good saying it creates a link, but if it isn't linking places where there is demand, there is precisely no point. Most of the freight from Felixstowe is heading towards the Midlands, which is why it's routed via Ely and it's also why capacity constraints at Ely are an issue which leads to some being routed via London.

AIUI the only bit of EWR which freight will use is the Southampton - north west as it'll then be routed via Bletchley and the WCML rather than through the West Mids - per this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-west-rail-hs2-freight-opportunities.233941/#post-6104967

Ely may be ‘on a route’ to other places like Birmingham, King’s Lynn, and Norwich but it’s got huge flows to Cambridge. One only has to travel on these trains to see how they often empty out by over 50% at Ely, albeit some of those are interchanging but a significant number commute from there. You’re right that Newmarket was served by a single car 153 in the 1990s but like I’ve said elsewhere Greater Cambridge has grown significantly since then with the CB1 development, Biomedical campus also providing huge numbers of jobs as well as a dramatic increase in housing.

As for the Cambridge to Newmarket line, I’m just referring to Network Rail aspirations contained in the 2041 corridor study and things that successive Metro Mayors have said.

I agree that without doubling the line none of these aspirations are achievable though I think the 2041 report suggests additional loops.

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Cambridgeshire-Corridor-Study-2019.pdf

Reported elsewhere - but back in 2020, Stagecoach split the X5 so it only ran Bedford - Oxford and introduced a new service, the 905 running Bedford - Cambridge.

For the latter they used double-deck vehicles, presumably the loadings were such that it justified larger vehicles on that section and there probably weren't many people travelling from points west of Bedford to points east of Bedford.



Within the confines of the city centre - you are correct, but it's worth pointing out that Coventry *is much larger* (38sq mi compared to 15 sq mi). It was also pretty much destroyed in WW2 leading to a large scale post war rebuild and it doesn't have a historic university obstructing pretty much any development.

Though around Cambridge the road network has been improved there are still some pretty substandard roads for the traffic they carry - the A10 to Ely being an example.



The bit you're missing though is Royston and others only get the level of service to Cambridge they do by virtue of the fact they are on a route which is providing a service from further afield to Cambridge and for which there is more demand to begin with. So in Royston's case it's on a London - Cambridge route, whereas Newmarket is on an Ipswich - Cambridge route, a route which in the 1990s was so busy that its capacity could be handled by (checks notes) a Class 153. Whereas since electrification the Royston services have always been at least 4 car and reasonably well used.

As for a station at Fulbourn - that's ridiculous. All you'll do is slow down the services as they would be having to start / stop all the time. Cambridge North made some sense because of the science park there, south might just make sense - but others ? Really ?

Six Mile Bottom is in the middle of nowhere - there is precisely no justification for a station there, even as a "parkway". And direct trains to Soham going where ? Cambridge - Soham - Ely ? You'd need paths between Soham and Ely, space at Cambridge to terminate them and a bunch of other stuff. Not happening.



Can I refer you to previous posts which have pointed out that Newmarket tunnel is gauge restricted ? I'm sure @zwk500 won't mind me quoting https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...vision-on-the-line.225337/page-3#post-5774490

And what freight is there which is trying to travel from Oxford to Felixstowe and the South West exactly ? It's all well and good saying it creates a link, but if it isn't linking places where there is demand, there is precisely no point. Most of the freight from Felixstowe is heading towards the Midlands, which is why it's routed via Ely and it's also why capacity constraints at Ely are an issue which leads to some being routed via London.

AIUI the only bit of EWR which freight will use is the Southampton - north west as it'll then be routed via Bletchley and the WCML rather than through the West Mids - per this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-west-rail-hs2-freight-opportunities.233941/#post-6104967

You’ve stated that Cambridge South ‘might’ just make sense. It clearly does and is currently under construction. It is a 4 platform station adjacent to the vast Biomedical Campus which currently employs 25,000 people and that’s expected to double over the next 20 years. That can also be combined with Long Rd 6th form which hosts circa 2000 students and the Perse School - an independent school with over 1000 students. I’m willing to predict that within 5 years of opening, it could have as many as 2 million passengers per annum and could even be among the top 5 busiest stations in Cambridgeshire, Suffolk, and Norfolk combined. With the exception of Peterborough, Cambridge (central), Norwich, Ipswich and possibly Ely, I can see it exceeding passenger numbers of all other stations in that area.

 

[cle]

Not sure about Cambridge being economically more important than Cov, but certainly it punches above it's weight and outranks many larger towns in the region. BIB is key, Universities attract high-value technical, technological and research-based companies, and Oxford and Cambridge as 2 extremely good univerisities attract proportionately more and higher value companies than other universities like those in the Russel group.

I did a little research on this, and Cambridge tops many charts (or, after London) but admittedly these are in innovation, tech etc mainly. It's hard to compare unless we had city GVA/GDPs, and those tend to be regionally published.

What I will say is that we are talking about rail here, not motorways (yes Coventry probably would benefit from roading infrastructure over rail - although its rail service is decent) - and inbound commuting for high value jobs. Cambridge definitely has that going on.

Crucially, many of those who would take these jobs would otherwise have a good chance of being London commuters, so Cambridge plays an important role in balancing out high value, global corporation etc opportunities away from London. Oxford, MK and Reading are similar in that regard. What if we link them all up by rail?

 

[Magdalia]

This discussion was opened with the following statement.

There are many in here who say the economic case for Bedford - [St Neots] - Cambridge will never stack up, and so will never get built. (Just for the record, I do hope it gets built. But I'd give that only a 20% chance.)

Yesterday, the Budget Report had the following at paragraph 3.98.

3.98 The UK is a world-leader in the life sciences industry, with significant R&D hubs such as Cambridge’s Biomedical Campus. East West Rail – the rail line joining Oxford and Cambridge - will support further growth in life sciences and other high-productivity sectors across the region, connecting businesses and talent. In May, the government will confirm the route for the new Bedford-Cambridge section, and will provide capacity funding to support local authorities to develop their plans for strategic economic growth around new stations.

East West Rail is an integral part of the current Chancellor's growth plan, it won't be cancelled while he is Chancellor.

Recently I put the chances of the Bedford-Cambridge section of East West Rail being built at 70%. I'm sticking with that for now, but I'm hoping to revise that upwards once the proposed route is confirmed in May.

 

[William3000]

This discussion was opened with the following statement.



Yesterday, the Budget Report had the following at paragraph 3.98.



East West Rail is an integral part of the current Chancellor's growth plan, it won't be cancelled while he is Chancellor.

Recently I put the chances of the Bedford-Cambridge section of East West Rail being built at 70%. I'm sticking with that for now, but I'm hoping to revise that upwards once the proposed route is confirmed in May.

I hope you’re right - it’s such an obviously vital scheme. I’m hoping when (and it almost certainly is a when not an if now) Labour get into power they continue to support it. There appears to be cross party support for it and Oxford, Bedford and Cambridge have Labour MPs, and Milton Keynes is likely to have post the next election so I would imagine there will be political support for it.

 

[cle]

The budget was encouraging indeed, and while there are some Labour seats through the route, there are also some others which might be pick ups.

As mentioned, it does a great job at boosting and connecting regional economic centres further - ie giving more non-London options for top talent or rural folks (or both!) - so I think it should be a popular policy.

Getting to Cambridge would be an immense victory - and if any direct services threaded further into Anglia, then that could be a PR coup.

How generally known it is, is another matter. Average Joe probably isn’t following this thread that closely.

 

[A0wen]

Getting to Cambridge would be an immense victory - and if any direct services threaded further into Anglia, then that could be a PR coup.

No - EWR have been clear that they are looking to run Oxford - Cambridge and their route will effectively be insulated from delays on other lines. If you start extending it to Reading (in the west) or Norwich / Ipswich in the east you then start causing reliability risks all over the place. It's precisely the mistake LNW made when they tried to tag other things onto the London - Birmingham services, delays from miles away caused endless problems.

Changing at Cambridge is hardly going to be a hardship for the penny numbers who want to go from Bedford to Norwich or Bury St Edmunds (or vice versa).

 

[zwk500]

The Budget was encouraging but stopped short of a full commitment, AIUI. Priority now is getting the initial service up and running. Having some actual performance and usage figures for Oxford-MK will massively help inform the case for Bedford-Cambridge.

 

[Snow1964]

BBC are reporting that actual route is close to announcement

East-West Rail: £5bn rail link route set to be announced

The East-West Rail project was previously said to have "major issues".

www.bbc.co.uk

Probably should be in infrastructure, rather than speculative thread though

 

[JonathanH]

Probably should be in infrastructure, rather than speculative thread though

It is probably still speculative until it is funded.

 

[swt_passenger]

It is probably still speculative until it is funded.

I don’t think that’s ever been the policy about thread location. The main EWR ‘consultation’ thread has been running in the ‘infrastructure’ forum since about 2014, the only significant change was that EWR construction was eventually separated out, to avoid reports of actual work on the ground being swamped by reports about the changing DfT sponsored consultation, particular the route through and to the east of Bedford.

I believe this thread, on the other hand, was definitely pure speculation, because it was clearly an attempt to come up with a completely different route and destination. Hence it was never really the right place for post #79 to be made anyway?