Aslef strikes and OT ban called…

[Trainguy34]

How much will the overtime ban affect SWR and Southeastern, hoping to be able to see a friend in Southampton.

 

[Harpers Tate]

Projecting all of this to one plausible outcome
The unreliability of the Railway (from whatever cause including ongoing strikes and other action) drives increasing numbers of those most directly and immediately affected - the passengers - to seek ways of avoiding rail travel; whether that be even more "working from home" or self-driving or anything else. And in so doing triggers a level of passenger attrition that results in a reduction of services and potentially network. Which, in turn, results in a reduction in railway jobs. Taken to its extreme, the railway becomes as much of an irrelevance as the mines did.

 

[railfan99]

I just wonder how bothered the government are about this. Taking a very cynical view those who are likely to continue to vote Conservative are least likely to be adversely affected...

It's true that these individuals are more likely to have alternative transport (i.e. a car) available most of the time, but you'd be surprised in Western countries how many medium to high income people use rail.

Perhaps it's fewer given WFH post-Covid, but it's a myth that only those in the 'DEF' socioeconomic brackets use railways.

And rail use is high among self-funded retirees, who normally are more likely to favour centre-right political parties.

 

[yorksrob]

I tend to agree with this, people don't travel on those limited services because they just see that the trains are on strike and most won't look into it further. Of course some people will still travel or they may know the limited service will operate on their route but the vast majority will see nationwide rail strikes and just say they're not going to travel by train that day.

With this action, it's likely going to be a week of low passenger numbers nationwide. People will see strikes, and say no I'm not travelling during that period.

All that being said, sticking with Leeds-Wakefield-Sheffield, if that route saw normal passenger numbers (including XC) on the Thursday it will put an awful lot more pressure on an already busy route. Northern will pick up the XC passengers but they would be extremely cosy services. The other issue is this is a fairly core XC route so will people see 3/4 changes and decide it's worth it to still do their journey, as an example passengers from the likes of here in Newcastle travelling to Birmingham, will they end up travelling via LNER/TPE to Doncaster/Leeds then onwards to Sheffield on the Northern services changing there for either Manchester or Leicester. It would likely add another hour depending on connections, so will people accept that or will they look and go, strike day, can't be bothered.

It will be worth keeping an eye on passenger movements/figures for this action, it's not focused on specific days so I think the most likely outcome will be a week of low passengers, but I have a feeling this could be wrong.

Indeed.

I think that there's a chance that some services will be very busy.

Passengers will need to build in additional time and keep their wits about them, particularly using services fringing with the strike TOC's, but it will still be better than no trains.

 

[ctrh136]

Been officially announced now

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Don't even think ASLEF have issued any press releases or put it on their website.

All you will find on their website is this, which makes it clear it is a pay dispute due to inflation, nothing about any T&Cs dispute which some posters mistakenly seem think is the case.

Fair Pay: Stand with Train Drivers | ASLEF

Train Drivers deserve fair pay that keeps up with the cost of living

aslef.org.uk

The dispute about is about pay. An offer has been made to ASLEF that is unacceptable due to the changes to terms and conditions included in the offer. That offer with no changes to terms and conditions would be accepted. So the dispute is about pay, but it’s the changes to terms and conditions that are why it hasn’t been accepted.

 

[Bantamzen]

Last time I looked it hadn't even made the BBC News website.

Its appeared now, albeit as a small headline story which will probably drop off the front page soon.

 

[class ep-09]

It's quite reassuring to know that the rail unions are firmly in the 1970s'. It could be a heritage type themed event.

Considering that Tories think we still live in Victorian times , 70’s look very modern to me .

 

[richfoz84]

Offer aslef the same deal as RMT.. strikes will likely be called off and the negotiations can be discussed toc by toc in the new year. It’s that simple. Attacking terms and conditions won’t fix this issue. The government have no clue how the railway ACTUALLY works.

 

[D Williams]

Projecting all of this to one plausible outcome
The unreliability of the Railway (from whatever cause including ongoing strikes and other action) drives increasing numbers of those most directly and immediately affected - the passengers - to seek ways of avoiding rail travel; whether that be even more "working from home" or self-driving or anything else. And in so doing triggers a level of passenger attrition that results in a reduction of services and potentially network. Which, in turn, results in a reduction in railway jobs. Taken to its extreme, the railway becomes as much of an irrelevance as the mines did.

To most people the railways are already an irrelevance.

 

[Dogbox]

Offer aslef the same deal as RMT.. strikes will likely be called off and the negotiations can be discussed toc by toc in the new year. It’s that simple. Attacking terms and conditions won’t fix this issue. The government have no clue how the railway ACTUALLY works.

I think thats what everyone is thinking, I'd love to know the reason why aslef aren't being offered the same as the RMT, it's absolute madness!!

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think that the staggered strikes are undoubtedly an improvement for passengers over a nationwide shutdown.

I think so too. Inconvenient for one day for many, but better than several days. Remember there is a legal 40% minimum service requirement too, unlike the last time two months previously and any occasions prior to that.

 

[Goldfish62]

How much will the overtime ban affect SWR and Southeastern, hoping to be able to see a friend in Southampton.

Last time there was a virtually normal service on SWR. No idea re South Eastern.

 

[mike57]

Projecting all of this to one plausible outcome
The unreliability of the Railway (from whatever cause including ongoing strikes and other action) drives increasing numbers of those most directly and immediately affected - the passengers - to seek ways of avoiding rail travel; whether that be even more "working from home" or self-driving or anything else. And in so doing triggers a level of passenger attrition that results in a reduction of services and potentially network. Which, in turn, results in a reduction in railway jobs. Taken to its extreme, the railway becomes as much of an irrelevance as the mines did.

And this results in Serpell Mk2, with everything apart from profitable inter city routes and freight shutdown, with no central public funding. And I have no doubt there are those in the current government who would welcome this outcome. Would this be good for the UK, No. But the current shambles (not just strikes) means that is the direction it seems to be blindly heading.

 

[Goldfish62]

I think thats what everyone is thinking, I'd love to know the reason why aslef aren't being offered the same as the RMT, it's absolute madness!!

I think it's purely cynical. From conversations I have it seems clear there's not the same level of public sympathy for drivers as there is for other staff and the government are playing on that rather than trying to agree a deal.

 

[newtownmgr]

To most people the railways are already an irrelevance.

That’s why the trains are as busy as there were pre Covid.

 

[mike57]

That’s why the trains are as busy as there were pre Covid.

I think the problem is revenue is down, as there are more leisure journeys, with people travelling on cheaper tickets.

 

[class ep-09]

I think so too. Inconvenient for one day for many, but better than several days. Remember there is a legal 40% minimum service requirement too, unlike the last time two months previously and any occasions prior to that.

I think 40% service applies to nationwide strike , not individual TOC’s ( even if number of the strike at once , it is not nationwide ).

I am happy to be corrected if I understood the MSL bill wrongly.

 

[Facing Back]

And this results in Serpell Mk2, with everything apart from profitable inter city routes and freight shutdown, with no central public funding. And I have no doubt there are those in the current government who would welcome this outcome. Would this be good for the UK, No. But the current shambles (not just strikes) means that is the direction it seems to be blindly heading.

If you add profitable commuter traffic into major conurbations then I am sure that there are those in government who would agree

I think 40% service applies to nationwide strike , not individual TOC’s ( even if number of the strike at once , it is not nationwide ).

I am happy to be corrected if I understood the MSL bill wrongly.

My reading is that it does apply to individual TOCs.

 

[Richardr]

I think so too. Inconvenient for one day for many, but better than several days. Remember there is a legal 40% minimum service requirement too, unlike the last time two months previously and any occasions prior to that.

Are you sure that is true? Independent of the other points made, I thought it wasn't in place yet in early December?

 

[newtownmgr]

I think the problem is revenue is down, as there are more leisure journeys, with people travelling on cheaper tickets.

Yes agreed, but just responding to the comment about trains being supposedly irrelevant for most.

If you add profitable commuter traffic into major conurbations then I am sure that there are those in government who would agree


My reading is that it does apply to individual TOCs.

It’s up to each individual Toc to implement it or not. Basically a cope out from the government to blame someone else when it doesn’t work

 

[cuccir]

The idea of trying a different approach towards strikes is an interesting one.

As someone who commutes on the ECML, two of the three TOCs I use will be running every day, and the one which provides the most seats - LNER - are only striking on the weekend. So my personal disruption is likely to be minimal. But I can see how it creates a much longer period of broader unreliability and uncertainty for the railway network. So if it works well, it's a creative way of increasing disruption to the employer without increasing disruption to the passenger.

Anyone more reliant on one TOC will still only have 1 day out of a week's-worth of striking to worry about, so they are not more impacted than they would be by previous strategies.

Indeed, you could imagine a rolling programme of this which asked each set of drivers to go out once every two or three weeks but which had the network as a whole in a constant state of disruption.

It's clear that the 'all out' form of industrial action is not really achieving much movement, so I think it's welcome to see the union trying a different approach which is considerate of how to maximize disruption for bosses while minimizing, or at least not increasing, disruption for passengers.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Are you sure that is true? Independent of the other points made, I thought it wasn't in place yet in early December?

I thought it was from December, but it could be from the new year.

 

[footprints]

Nothing demonstrates how Aslef are a busted flush like this announcement barely even making the news. Without visiting this forum, I wouldn't even know more pointless strikes had been called.

 

[Facing Back]

It’s up to each individual Toc to implement it or not. Basically a cope out from the government to blame someone else when it doesn’t work

It is irrelevant to this thread in any case as the secondary legislation to implement it hasn't been presented to Parliament (unless I've missed it).

I don't imagine that the DfT will look kindly on any TOC who doesn't implement it robustly and misses minimum service levels. Whether it will work or not is a discussion for another place.

 

[richfoz84]

new strike dates only made it onto BBC news 36 mins ago, as I type this!

Prior strikes are “breaking news”!!

Government probably dictating to the press what and when they can post!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Are you sure that is true? Independent of the other points made, I thought it wasn't in place yet in early December?

The government has already said the MSL regulations won't apply to the current disputes.
It also has to be implemented by consultation between individual TOCs, Network Rail and unions.
It's linked to "national strikes" but that is not properly defined.
Essentially it was framed for the strike action by NR signallers which closed most lines, bar some limited services on main lines (and is where the MSL base map came from).

 

[Facing Back]

I thought it was from December, but it could be from the new year.

I had read that the government planned to lay the secondary legislation containing the service levels before parliament before Christmas and it will presumably be active following that.

The government has already said the MSL regulations won't apply to the current disputes.

Really? I don't recall that - can you point me to some documentation on this please. I had understood that it will apply to existing disputes.

It also has to be implemented by consultation between individual TOCs, Network Rail and unions.

The formal consultation is complete and the planned service levels have been set. What further consultation with unions are you expecting?

It's linked to "national strikes" but that is not properly defined.

The legislation is clear that it applies to each individual TOC. If only one TOC is on strike then the MSL of 40% of services timetabled for that TOC is applicable.

Essentially it was framed for the strike action by NR signallers which closed most lines, bar some limited services on main lines (and is where the MSL base map came from).

That might be the history, I don't know. The legislation defines minimum service levels differently for TOCs and for NR. NR effectively have to keep the Priority Routes listed in the act available between 6am and 10pm. Separately affected TOCs have each to run a minimum of 40% of timetables services.

 

[ChrisC]

I think so too. Inconvenient for one day for many, but better than several days. Remember there is a legal 40% minimum service requirement too, unlike the last time two months previously and any occasions prior to that.

I will be travelling home from a couple of days in Leicester on Saturday 2nd December which is the day of strike action on EMR. I can’t really cancel because I‘ve got a couple of events booked and I don’t want to take my car as my hotel is in city centre. I am now expecting a journey home of over 3 hours involving 3 buses. If EMR do manage to run a limited service at least for the main part of my journey between Leicester and Nottingham that will be a nice surprise, but I’m not really expecting it.

 

[Smidster]

new strike dates only made it onto BBC news 36 mins ago, as I type this!

Prior strikes are “breaking news”!!

Government probably dictating to the press what and when they can post!

Not really - It just isn't a particularly notable or important piece of news anymore - 99% of people aren't impacted at all and the other 1% will do as we have throughout this dispute.

When you have had dozens of strikes over the last year another one just isn't significant - especially when there is actual news happening in the world.