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Avanti West coast contract extended to 1st April 2023

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Bertie the bus

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There are really only two options: a direct award to Avanti on terms similar to those for SWR (be careful what you wish for) or being taken into the OLR for which rumour has is that it hasn't the capacity to lead more than the three operations for which it is responsible.
It’s a sad indictment of the industry if that is true. The railway is failing so badly the operator of last resort has failed to step in take over from an operator that has failed as badly as Avanti because it is too busy.
 
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Amos

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I wish I had your faith in both the Westminster Government and the Department for Transport. IMHO all this shows is complete disregard for the poor service on the WCML - the contract extension merely signals that the issue simply doesn't matter. Even now, Avanti have yet to finalise a timetable for a fortnight tomorrow - when many will want to get away for half-term. The result will people using car and air to move rather than the useless railway.
Do you think that this is perhaps what the dft want? If people aren’t using the railway because of the appalling service they have the perfect excuse to reduce the amount of money being put in.
 

RailWonderer

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The FT seems to speculate that there is 'no appetite in government for more nationalisation'. Wouldn't surprise me but the direct award and OLR system is designed to control the balance sheets a lot more than before and in these times the economics outweighs traditional Tory ideas to privitise everything.

Public or private though, a driver shortage doesn't get solved so quickly. Can anyone who works at Avanti explain why they can't find staff, or if they are recruiting but cannot train fast enough?
 

3141

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It's complicated by HS2.
The Avanti contract has elements related to planning for HS2 services and the WCML changes when they start.
Trenitalia is there as the high speed consultant.
DfT won't want to rebuild the "West Coast Partnership" unless there really is no alternative.
There's scope for some "World Class" egg-on-face if that happens.
You've made some very important points. This is no ordinary contract because of the connections to HS2 development. It's unlikely that OLR - whoever is involved in that - has the expertise to come in at very short notice and replace those aspects of the West Coast operation. Some posters obviously dislike Avanti and think it should be kicked out asap, and believe that the DfT is up to something nefarious because it hasn't done that, whereas it's far more likely that the practical issues like the timescale for obtaining more drivers have led to the extension.

But if people really want a conspiracy theory, how about this: DfT really wants an excuse to cancel HS2, it expects Avanti to have failed to improve things significantly by next April, there's no way of replicating the input of Trenitalia, so OLR takes over just to run the West Coast operations and HS2 is dropped. NB this conspiracy theory is copyright <D
 

Horizon22

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I think there was, but nobody was prepared to take it.
I mean, completely destroy the credibility for sound finance, impose huge increases on mortgage rates, yes. Get rid of an obviously failing company and replace it with one which will do better, no.

Which essentially means, there was no other option then! The DfT are at least partly (or considerably depending on your viewpoint) to blame for the Avanti situation, so I don't think any other options would have made a blind bit of difference in the short-term.
 

Snow1964

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The part that seems weird to me is the use of future tense. Avanti will get extension to 1st April. The Government will then consider….

With Avanti’s previous contract coming to an end, the short-term extension will see it continue to run services on the route until 1 April 2023. This window is designed to provide Avanti with the opportunity to improve their services. The government will then consider Avanti’s performance while finalising a National Rail Contract that will have a renewed focus on resilience of train services and continuity for passengers.

Surely the should be considering it in January, not sometime after extension finishes, otherwise who operates it in April whilst the Government is considering

Am I missing something, or do they have another unannounced extension which is being kept quiet whilst dust settles on current mess

 

Bald Rick

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I think there was, but nobody was prepared to take it.

Well yes, but it would be politically impossible, not to say operationally impossible (at this notice). And whoever took it over wouldn’t have got the drivers back on Rest Days, so it would have been a hiding to nothing. Far better to keep Avanti in the hot seat as someone to blame. You never know, they might work a way out of it.

Don’t forget ASLEF are on a mission to overthrow the Government (not that Government needs any help), and therefore Government doing anything that ASLEF want from an ideological perspective (removing ’franchises’) isn’t going to happen at the present time.
 

Bertie the bus

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You've made some very important points. This is no ordinary contract because of the connections to HS2 development. It's unlikely that OLR - whoever is involved in that - has the expertise to come in at very short notice and replace those aspects of the West Coast operation. Some posters obviously dislike Avanti and think it should be kicked out asap, and believe that the DfT is up to something nefarious because it hasn't done that, whereas it's far more likely that the practical issues like the timescale for obtaining more drivers have led to the extension.
That argument doesn’t hold water. Avanti management can’t even operate a service reduced by 50% on the current network but uniquely have the skills and experience to operate a high speed service. Somewhat farfetched.
 

Some guy

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It’s an absolute shambles one of the worst operating companies this year with by far the most complaints. You know it’s bad when it got more then TPE who are utterly useless. LNER have put Avanti to shame they have a full timetable and still barely any cancellations and that’s even with drivers and train managers not doing overtime
 

D.K.TAYLOR

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I avoid Avanti like Covid poor services sky high fares cancelled trains. Chiltern have gained all my trade and will do for what looks like a considerable period of time.
 

C J Snarzell

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Wonder what Andy Burnham will be saying about all this? It's almost as if the extra 6 months is to wind him up.

Good - Burnham is a complete and utter disgrace. The shenanigans and fallout within Greater Manchester Police (in which Burnham controls as Mayor) is probably just as bad if not worse than the Avanti fiasco (although I fully appreciate you cannot compare a police force with a rail company).

Burnham's media criticisms of Avanti are like the pot calling the kettle black. As an ex-cop, Burnham has repeatedly lied to the media and the general public about how bad policing is in Greater Manchester. Maybe he should look at keeping his own house in order before waving the finger at other people.

CJ
 

JamieL

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Good - Burnham is a complete and utter disgrace. The shenanigans and fallout within Greater Manchester Police (in which Burnham controls as Mayor) is probably just as bad if not worse than the Avanti fiasco (although I fully appreciate you cannot compare a police force with a rail company).

Burnham's media criticisms of Avanti are like the pot calling the kettle black. As an ex-cop, Burnham has repeatedly lied to the media and the general public about how bad policing is in Greater Manchester. Maybe he should look at keeping his own house in order before waving the finger at other people.

CJ
As you say, you cannot compare Policing to the railways, they are two totally different topics. Arguing that someone is incapacitated about raising an important issue for their constituents because you disagree with his policies elsewhere makes little sense.
 

6Gman

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This seems like either can kicking or the DfT buying themselves time to replace Avanti in the long term.
I certainly hope it's the latter.

Given the change of Prime Minister and most of the cabinet (including at Transport) plus the very short timescale it's hardly surprising that we didn't see a change announced this week.
 

Kite159

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Even if you get rid of First/MTR, would any other company want to take on the West Coast with all the various problems it has?

I suspect it will end up with the OLR, who has to take on extra members of staff to cope with dealing with 4 companies.
 

td97

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Even if you get rid of First/MTR, would any other company want to take on the West Coast with all the various problems it has?
This is exactly the point. Avanti will be a mess for at least another 6 months. Whoever operates the franchise until April will be dogged by all their current issues including strikes, reduced timetables, insufficient traincrew numbers and diminished staff goodwill.
In the background Avanti can be training staff and then as the service is improving next year, DfT can take it in house if needed and not tarnish the OLR brand in the meantime.
 

Bertie the bus

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OLR isn’t a brand. It would take a marketing exec with a warped sense of humour to come up with a brand that includes the words ‘last resort’. OLR, or whatever it calls itself these days, does what it says on the tin. It is the operator of last resort and its only reason for existence is to take over from failed TOCs.
 

Tezza1978

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But if people really want a conspiracy theory, how about this: DfT really wants an excuse to cancel HS2, it expects Avanti to have failed to improve things significantly by next April, there's no way of replicating the input of Trenitalia, so OLR takes over just to run the West Coast operations and HS2 is dropped. NB this conspiracy theory is copyright <D
I think Avanti should definitely lose the franchise, but the idea that the govt is going to cancel HS2 at this stage is for the birds. Don't get me wrong - I can't stand this govt - I am pro HS2 - and if this was 2 years ago and COVID had already hit us at that stage, Truss would have cheerfully cancelled HS2 in full. But given the level of construction already completed, the financial penalties for cancelling and 2a already have been approved by Parliament, it seems vanishingly unlikely that the network will not at least be built out to Manc and Manc Airport as a minimum. With a strong chance of the Tories losing the next election it looks very likely that the Eastern leg will eventually be approved and built too (maybe in a revised form)
 

Nicholas Lewis

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DfT has extended Avanti Weat Coast Contract to 1st April 2023

The Department for Transport has placed Avanti West Coast on a short-term contract and challenged it to deliver the urgent increase in services required.

Over the past few months, Avanti has seen major operational issues primarily caused by a shortage of available drivers. Nearly 100 additional drivers will have entered formal service this year between April and December. This has meant the company has begun to add more services as new drivers and those who need re-training become available to work. They have also added extra trains on its key London-Manchester and London-Birmingham routes, bringing service levels closer to normal running.
If thats a nett increase in establishment that should allow the timetable to be fully restored surely.
 

Bald Rick

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so… if Avanti‘s plan comes off, and the new timetable in December works more or less as advertised, will this all be forgotten fairly quickly?

Who remembers the 4 months of severely reduced timetables, cancellations and delays on FCC (Thameslink) in 2006?
 

Master29

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And so they should. I couldn't agree more, especially with the "useless" term.

Aside from the die harders who profess that they would rather not travel at all than use road or air transport, I don't see how anyone could even begin to trust the railway (not just Avanti) to get them where they need to be when they need to be there at present - especially if any planning more than 14 days ahead is required.

The railway is on a very fast track to irrelevance.
Really, based on what?
 

diffident

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Really, based on what?

Because the whole system, be it Avanti issues or strike action, is making the network utterly unreliable.

The railway is making itself irrelevant when it comes to planning travel. I've given up on rail travel, and I'm a huge supporter of the railways.
 

Bertie the bus

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so… if Avanti‘s plan comes off, and the new timetable in December works more or less as advertised, will this all be forgotten fairly quickly?

Who remembers the 4 months of severely reduced timetables, cancellations and delays on FCC (Thameslink) in 2006?
Isn't that why the government have given Avanti a 6 month extension? Nothing to do with last chance saloon but everything to do with if Avanti do get their act together before Xmas everything will be forgotten by spring and they can then award them a multi-year contract without too much fuss.
 

Master29

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Because the whole system, be it Avanti issues or strike action, is making the network utterly unreliable.

The railway is making itself irrelevant when it comes to planning travel. I've given up on rail travel, and I'm a huge supporter of the railways.
At the moment yes but that won't be forever.
 

JamieL

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I certainly hope it's the latter.

Given the change of Prime Minister and most of the cabinet (including at Transport) plus the very short timescale it's hardly surprising that we didn't see a change announced this week.
Given the Prime Minister has been in Cabinet for a decade, the Tory Party remains in power and we have a professional Civil Service providing professional continuity, it really is a failure's charter to say that Westminster was not prepared.

At the moment yes but that won't be forever.
If Avanti is extended it will expand failure and inadequacy into the launch of HS2.
 

gazzaa2

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Do Avanti even want the service anymore? It'll be 6 months of more of the same and then the government take it on which they probably don't want to either, certainly not now during industrial strife.

It’s a sad indictment of the industry if that is true. The railway is failing so badly the operator of last resort has failed to step in take over from an operator that has failed as badly as Avanti because it is too busy.

it's the problem with nationalisation as an easy fix. It relies on a competent government that actually invests in its public services, as opposed to the reality of cuts across the board, bad government and austerity. Whereas the privatisation just leads to profit over passengers i.e. higher prices and often a bad service while the shareholders rake it in. Passengers lose either way.
 
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Watershed

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so… if Avanti‘s plan comes off, and the new timetable in December works more or less as advertised, will this all be forgotten fairly quickly?

Who remembers the 4 months of severely reduced timetables, cancellations and delays on FCC (Thameslink) in 2006?
It's been far longer than 4 months of mayhem on Avanti. The Manchester and Birmingham routes have been alternated between 1, 2 and 3tph at least 4 times this year alone!

And the December timetable has already seen a cutback, no doubt soon to be followed by a rollover of the current "temporary" timetable.
 

gazzaa2

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It's been far longer than 4 months of mayhem on Avanti. The Manchester and Birmingham routes have been alternated between 1, 2 and 3tph at least 4 times this year alone!

And the December timetable has already seen a cutback, no doubt soon to be followed by a rollover of the current "temporary" timetable.

Timetables also mean little if the operator can't run half of the services. Plus heading into winter will mean high sickness levels probably while short staffed.
 
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