Aviation Discussion

[Shaw S Hunter]

My guess, and it is a guess, is that as and when the crisis is declared over* and foreign travel restrictions are all removed, there will be an almighty clamour to get abroad to see friends / relatives / take long planned holidays. Much of this will be long haul. I think the airlines are going to have a job on their hands to predict this, and get their fleets recommissioned quickly enough to accommodate it. I suspect they will be cautious, and fares will go through the roof initially, before coming back down as capacity come back on line, and the initial demand surge falls back.


* through a suitable proportion of the population being immune through a vaccine or having caught the virus.

There may well be an initial surge in demand but it won't last. The economic damage being done by Covid means that many people will not have anything like the disposable income they had before meaning leisure travel will inevitably be negatively affected. Even if something approaching normality in every day life resumes during the course of 2021 the aviation industry in general is talking of it taking to at least 2024 before previous traffic levels return. Every chance that there will be more airline failures this winter and both Airbus and Boeing are facing a pretty bleak few years.

 

[Chester1]

There may well be an initial surge in demand but it won't last. The economic damage being done by Covid means that many people will not have anything like the disposable income they had before meaning leisure travel will inevitably be negatively affected. Even if something approaching normality in every day life resumes during the course of 2021 the aviation industry in general is talking of it taking to at least 2024 before previous traffic levels return. Every chance that there will be more airline failures this winter and both Airbus and Boeing are facing a pretty bleak few years.

The economic damage may not be as severe as predicted. For instance spending is almost back to pre pandemic levels.

Airbus will be fine because it had a 8 year order book at the start of the year. Some of it can be cancelled but much of it cannot be. Boeing has a massive problem because most 737 Max contracts allow airlines to cancel after a 1 year delay. Airlines are using this clause to make cut backs. 737s account for most of their order book.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Boeing has a massive problem because most 737 Max contracts allow airlines to cancel after a 1 year delay. Airlines are using this clause to make cut backs. 737s account for most of their order book.

Very true.

The September issue of Air Britain News states that so far MAX order cancellations have reached 857. As the close for press day for that issue was 24th August, it is possible that there have been further cancellations not yet noted in that figure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Very true.

The September issue of Air Britain News states that so far MAX order cancellations have reached 857. As the close for press day for that issue was 24th August, it is possible that there have been further cancellations not yet noted in that figure.

But with the MAX you've also got that, because of its stupid piece of bodged-on design which had a tendency to kill people, passengers are reluctant to fly on them, and still will be once they are approved to fly again. So a switch to Airbus would, if it could be done cheaply enough, be prudent anyway. I'd watch Airbus cancellations alongside it myself.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The economic damage may not be as severe as predicted. For instance spending is almost back to pre pandemic levels.

Airbus will be fine because it had a 8 year order book at the start of the year. Some of it can be cancelled but much of it cannot be. Boeing has a massive problem because most 737 Max contracts allow airlines to cancel after a 1 year delay. Airlines are using this clause to make cut backs. 737s account for most of their order book.

Little point in Airbus forcing airlines to take aircraft they neither want nor can afford. There are going to have to be further cutbacks in production especially as wide-body deliveries have been at record levels in recent years. Neither producer will go out of business but they are going to look a little different in a couple of years.

 

[Bald Rick]

Little point in Airbus forcing airlines to take aircraft they neither want nor can afford.

There’s every point - cashflow!

Various airlines will of course renegotiate, and many already have done.

 

[Chester1]

Little point in Airbus forcing airlines to take aircraft they neither want nor can afford. There are going to have to be further cutbacks in production especially as wide-body deliveries have been at record levels in recent years. Neither producer will go out of business but they are going to look a little different in a couple of years.

They are not letting airlines off on financial grounds and instead agreeing to reduce and delay orders. They had too much work pre pandemic (8 year lead time for some models was a bit crazy). They will take a hit but they are in decent position while Boeing is in trouble. Airbus would be well placed in the short and medium haul market moves towards smaller planes. Bombardier designed a larger C Series model which Airbus owns the rights to and recently asked Bombardier to do more modeling on. This would have 2 + 3 seating but be longer than the A220-300. The A321XLR seems to be forming a monopoly on the lower end of the middle of the market.

 

[Butts]

Turkey has just "gone" supposed to be going on October 20th - luckily An "Economy Job" so only 35 points down.

Will now have to play a game of chicken with BA, got 7 days grace to allow them to hopefully cancel the LHR to IST outward leg which will result in a refund of the whole package. I booked seats so if I cancel I'll be a ton down on them.

After the German Authorities imposed entry restrictions on my upcoming trip to Berlin I had to act as two holidays were in jeopardy.

Rang at 0800 this morning as soon as BA Holidays opened and got through to a helpful young lady called Alex.

Both the Turkish and German Holidays were cancelled and refunded without a quibble.( Including the seats on Turkish trip) She did check the FCO Website for Germany but the requirement to quarantine over there settled the refund.

As soon as I got off the phone I booked a replacement for the Berlin Trip to Verona in Italy - 1 of only two countries in Europe that currently carry no restrictions either end,Sweden is the other.

Veritable Bargain, Club Europe Flights and Three Nights in a Hotel for three hundred sheets each.


While I'm on can I ask some more seasoned travellers whether BA Serve Alcohol in Lounges/Club Cabin on "Breakfast Flights" - 0755 Departure.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

But with the MAX you've also got that, because of its stupid piece of bodged-on design which had a tendency to kill people, passengers are reluctant to fly on them, and still will be once they are approved to fly again. So a switch to Airbus would, if it could be done cheaply enough, be prudent anyway. I'd watch Airbus cancellations alongside it myself.

I just checked the same issue, although not broken down by type - but I'd expect most to be A320 family - Airbus have logged a figure of 302 net orders between January and July, so it does look as though at least some MAX customers have already switched sides.

Airbus are also stepping up development of the A321XLR in sharp contrast to their other project cutbacks, which suggests they may be getting some considerable numbers of customer enquiries about the type. This suggests that there is a level of mistrust of the Boeing NMA scheme ( which has itself been put on hold by Boeing while they sort the MAX crisis out ).

 

[Bald Rick]

Airbus are also stepping up development of the A321XLR in sharp contrast to their other project cutbacks, which suggests they may be getting some considerable numbers of customer enquiries about the type. This suggests that there is a level of mistrust of the Boeing NMA scheme ( which has itself been put on hold by Boeing while they sort the MAX crisis out ).

I can see the A321XLR being a rather popular workhorse of mid-range routes in a post Covid world.

 

[JonasB]

They are not letting airlines off on financial grounds and instead agreeing to reduce and delay orders. They had too much work pre pandemic (8 year lead time for some models was a bit crazy). They will take a hit but they are in decent position while Boeing is in trouble.

Airbus will probably be very flexible, it is very much in their interest that the airlines survive. Bankrupt airlines don't buy planes. But it will be interesting to see what happens when the industry goes back to normal, hundreds of orders for the 737 max have been cancelled, will we see those airlines order A320s instead?

Bombardier designed a larger C Series model which Airbus owns the rights to and recently asked Bombardier to do more modeling on. This would have 2 + 3 seating but be longer than the A220-300. The A321XLR seems to be forming a monopoly on the lower end of the middle of the market.

Airbus owns more than just the rights to it, they are the majority owners of Airbus Canada that builds the plane. And Bombardier has nothing to do with it anymore.

 

[Chester1]

Airbus owns more than just the rights to it, they are the majority owners of Airbus Canada that builds the plane. And Bombardier has nothing to do with it anymore.

I know Airbus owns the series now, therefore they own the designs done by Bombardier prior to the sale for a stretched version. Bombardier have a "high performance computer" that was used in development of the series so Airbus paid them to do some extra modelling last year. The new version would be the A220-500. It would be 165 seats. I am a bit skeptical about how keen they are because it would hurt A320 sales. However, its a good option if the market heads in that direction.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The A220 is a nice aircraft. Delta operate some.

 

[gsnedders]

I know Airbus owns the series now, therefore they own the designs done by Bombardier prior to the sale for a stretched version. Bombardier have a "high performance computer" that was used in development of the series so Airbus paid them to do some extra modelling last year. The new version would be the A220-500. It would be 165 seats. I am a bit skeptical about how keen they are because it would hurt A320 sales. However, its a good option if the market heads in that direction.

The belief has been that the A320's replacement, to better compete with the Boeing NMA ("new midsize aircraft"), which the A321XLR is effectively already competing with, will increase in size and the base model with be closer in size to the current A321, and the current A320 will be taken over by the A220-500. (Note the A220-300 and the A319neo are already pretty comparable, and both the A319neo and Boeing 737MAX7 have much smaller order books than the larger aircraft in their ranges, and much smaller than the relative share that the A319ceo and 737-700 got of their order books.)

 

[Bletchleyite]

The A220 is a nice aircraft. Delta operate some.

It's vastly more modern than the archaic 1960s B737 design. Boeing really do need a from-scratch narrowbody platform.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It's vastly more modern than the archaic 1960s B737 design. Boeing really do need a from-scratch narrowbody platform.

I totally agree. The MAX fiasco has imho proven exactly what you have just said. A lazy where to get quick FAA approval. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing went bankrupt.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I totally agree. The MAX fiasco has imho proven exactly what you have just said. A lazy where to get quick FAA approval. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing went bankrupt.

I don't think there's any chance of the US Government letting that happen, if only because of the military contracts.

Were it not for that, I'd agree.

 

[221129]

While I'm on can I ask some more seasoned travellers whether BA Serve Alcohol in Lounges/Club Cabin on "Breakfast Flights" - 0755 Departure.

0755 from where? I think the answer is yes at LHR. Not sure about on board.

 

[WestCoast]

It's vastly more modern than the archaic 1960s B737 design. Boeing really do need a from-scratch narrowbody platform.

I do still like Sky Interior on the B737-800s etc and MAX which makes the interiors look very modern even if the airplane is an old design.

I've been on the AirBaltic A220 and it felt like flying a B787 or A350 in minature, impressively quiet and fresh. Although the seating that AirBaltic chose to install wasn't especially comfortable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I do still like Sky Interior on the B737-800s etc and MAX which makes the interiors look very modern even if the airplane is an old design.

The Sky Interior is nice, but it's essentially equivalent to tarting up Mk3 coaches, i.e. not a good long term plan.

 

[Chester1]

The belief has been that the A320's replacement, to better compete with the Boeing NMA ("new midsize aircraft"), which the A321XLR is effectively already competing with, will increase in size and the base model with be closer in size to the current A321, and the current A320 will be taken over by the A220-500. (Note the A220-300 and the A319neo are already pretty comparable, and both the A319neo and Boeing 737MAX7 have much smaller order books than the larger aircraft in their ranges, and much smaller than the relative share that the A319ceo and 737-700 got of their order books.)

I think thats a reasonable bet in the long term but I can't see Airbus making a A321 sized new model this decade. The A320 family is young compared with 737 and the smallest 787 is too large to compete directly. The A321XLR has received a tremendous number of orders since it was announced last year and once the pandemic subsides it will be sell placed to sweep the lower end of the middle of the market. There will be plenty of airlines that thought the A321XLR was a bit too small but will happy with it post pandemic. That may cause production capacity issues and a A220-500 would use different production lines. They could limit sales to existing A220 customers to avoid losing too many A320 sales. The A220-300 is the series base model so a further stretch for a A220-700 is possible although unlike the proposed 500 version, I don't think serious design work has been done.

I don't think there's any chance of the US Government letting that happen, if only because of the military contracts.

Were it not for that, I'd agree.

I think your right that it won't get liquidated because of US interests but a wipe out of existing shareholders (and replacement of senior management) is possible. Northern Rock didn't legally go bankrupt, our government nationalised it when it was about to. From an investor perspective its the same thing. Another example is Norwegian Airlines. Its bailout (or bail in) reduced previous shareholders to 5%.

I do still like Sky Interior on the B737-800s etc and MAX which makes the interiors look very modern even if the airplane is an old design.

I've been on the AirBaltic A220 and it felt like flying a B787 or A350 in minature, impressively quiet and fresh. Although the seating that AirBaltic chose to install wasn't especially comfortable.

I am jealous! I want to fly on an A220! 2+3 seating must be good if you are fly with one other person.

 

[221129]

I've been on the AirBaltic A220 and it felt like flying a B787 or A350 in minature, impressively quiet and fresh. Although the seating that AirBaltic chose to install wasn't especially comfortable.

Indeed, I was very impressed with the A220-300 I flew on with Swiss recently.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I see Airlines are refusing to buy Dreamliners built in Charleston. Yet Boeing want to consolidate all of its 787 production to... Charleston! Another nail in Boeing's coffin! Airbus must be cackling like ducks in a shop window.

 

[507021]

It's vastly more modern than the archaic 1960s B737 design. Boeing really do need a from-scratch narrowbody platform.

I think so too. Although Boeing obviously had their reasons for not doing so, I think it's a great shame the excellent 757 was discontinued instead of being updated, as it remains a popular and versatile aircraft nearly 38 years after it was first introduced.

IMO, what's needed is a new narrow body design which serves as a direct replacement for the 737 and 757.

 

[WestCoast]

The Sky Interior is nice, but it's essentially equivalent to tarting up Mk3 coaches, i.e. not a good long term plan.

I agree with you, it can't be updated anymore after the MAX surely.

I was always disappointed when they discontinued the 757, which is the best narrowbody they ever produced if you ask me. It was way ahead of its time, I was flying it on Britannia Airways from Manchester to Majorca as a kid in the 90s and 10 years later I flew it from Manchester to New York with United. Need to get on one again - those rocket-like takeoffs it can do are great. However, it seems there's ever fewer about in Europe nowadays, maybe Jet2 will still be operating their examples next summer? I think they still have at least a couple left.

 

[Bletchleyite]

IMO, what's needed is a new narrow body design which serves as a direct replacement for the 737 and 757.

Agreed. Ideally based on the 787, with composite fuselage, fly-by-wire and big windows. That would be an obvious big step forwards.

Airbus probably have the variants right, so copy those (i.e. a short one with overwing exits, a medium one with overwing exits and a big one with proper exits for "long and narrow" routes).

 

[507021]

Agreed. Ideally based on the 787, with composite fuselage, fly-by-wire and big windows. That would be an obvious big step forwards.

Airbus probably have the variants right, so copy those (i.e. a short one with overwing exits, a medium one with overwing exits and a big one with proper exits for "long and narrow" routes).

It absolutely would, even the newer 737s I've travelled on feel incredibly dated. Boeing, in my view, should consolidate their range to the 747, 787 and a 737/757 replacement.

One thing I've always wondered, I wonder what naming convention Boeing would use if/when "797" is used. 7A7, 7B7 etc, perhaps?

 

[Royston Vasey]

While I'm on can I ask some more seasoned travellers whether BA Serve Alcohol in Lounges/Club Cabin on "Breakfast Flights" - 0755 Departure.

Lounges definitely, ordered by app and very efficient I hear, and in normal times absolutely yes onboard, but you might want to check out FlyerTalk for the current onboard offering, there's a dedicated thread.


Edit: apparently yes in Club Europe too. Enjoy! https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/bri...iendly-catering-revealed-british-airways.html

 

[Ted633]

I'm very surprised Boeing never updated the 757 (new engines and systems), seeing how many of them are still plying their trade. I'd of thought airlines would be much keener for a 757 over the 321xlr, primarily for its much better freight carrying capacity (helps make a route viable), something the babybus family isn't too good at.

 

[JonasB]

I'm very surprised Boeing never updated the 757 (new engines and systems), seeing how many of them are still plying their trade. I'd of thought airlines would be much keener for a 757 over the 321xlr, primarily for its much better freight carrying capacity (helps make a route viable), something the babybus family isn't too good at.

Boeing discontinued the 757 after airlines stopped buying it. And even if it carries more freight, it also burns a lot more fuel. I have no data for the A321XLR, but a standard A321ceo uses 2740 kg/h and the 757-200 uses 3320 kg/h. I assume that an A321XLR would be better than both.

Need to get on one again - those rocket-like takeoffs it can do are great. However, it seems there's ever fewer about in Europe nowadays, maybe Jet2 will still be operating their examples next summer? I think they still have at least a couple left.

If you are looking to fly a 757 in Europe, I think Icelandair is your best chance.

I think so too. Although Boeing obviously had their reasons for not doing so.

I think it was one reason, the A320neo.

I know Airbus owns the series now, therefore they own the designs done by Bombardier prior to the sale for a stretched version. Bombardier have a "high performance computer" that was used in development of the series so Airbus paid them to do some extra modelling last year. The new version would be the A220-500. It would be 165 seats. I am a bit skeptical about how keen they are because it would hurt A320 sales. However, its a good option if the market heads in that direction.

I see, I'm a bit skeptical as well based on the fact that they are not selling that many planes at the moment. But even if it hurts A320 sales, they are (or were pre-Covid) sold out for the next five years or so. So it might be better for Airbus to be able to offer the A220 than nothing. Two products with 30% market share each might be better than one product with 40% market share and one with 10%?