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BBC TV and computer weather forecasting.

Xenophon PCDGS

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I notice that over the last 18 months, when very high temperatures are forecast, the previous childish obsession with "will this break the temperature record" has now been replaced by an understanding of the danger to health in some age groups and mention of that now is the norm. I wonder why it took them so long?
 
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Essan

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We've not had any days in the past 18 months when all time record temps have been expected, and very few when a date record was expected.
 

Purple Train

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Because, at a guess, the temperature record is so ridiculously high that there isn't much prospect of it being broken this summer, thankfully. Ironically, I would assume that, when it gets super-high and hence more dangerous, the "childish obsession" will return.
 

Mcr Warrior

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Because, at a guess, the temperature record is so ridiculously high that there isn't much prospect of it being broken this summer, thankfully.
Indeed. Most of us on here aren't lizards, and wouldn't want it to be. 40°C in July 2022 was way high enough.
 

1D54

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So many of these forecasters on national / local TV stations simply take it for granted that the whole population simply love steaming hot temperatures and they couldn't be more wrong. Scorchio is a common word used by the idiots on BBC East Midlands Today with beaming smiling faces.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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More now is known about skin cancer and its many causes. I remember in the mid 1960s, when a group of us from Manchester University took the day trips to the seaside that it was de rigeur to lie motionless on the beach with just our swimming trunks on (the boys0 and bikinis (the girls). The girls always had plenty of sun lotions. but the boys never bothered.
 

Trackman

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More now is known about skin cancer and its many causes. I remember in the mid 1960s, when a group of us from Manchester University took the day trips to the seaside that it was de rigeur to lie motionless on the beach with just our swimming trunks on (the boys0 and bikinis (the girls). The girls always had plenty of sun lotions. but the boys never bothered.
I had a friend who was diagnosed with skin cancer. He was astonished as they didnt go out in the sun, holidays abroad etc.. The consultant asked what he did for a living as said he was a driver for about 30 years. next question - did you wear short-sleeved tops and have your arm resting on the window? He said yes as the penny dropped. Might have actually saved his life that diagnosis, as they found out he had prostate cancer as well. After several operations, he's fine now and in good spirits and warns people about the dangers. He was furious about the prostate cancer diagnosis because he had all the classic symptoms, but wasnt aware what they meant, just thought it was all part of the ageing process.
So many of these forecasters on national / local TV stations simply take it for granted that the whole population simply love steaming hot temperatures and they couldn't be more wrong.
Correct, Then there's the pollen count that affects thousands, including asthma sufferers.
 

sor

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they're a bit damned if they do, damned if they don't - see the people who have meltdowns (pun not intended) over the suggestion that rising temperatures could be part of man made climate change and not just "it's summer, remember 1976"

the met office (who don't provide the BBC's broadcasts anymore, but still do so for other broadcasters) had to explain why the choice of colours on the weathermaps had changed, and the use of red was to improve visibility for colour blind people and not an attempt to "scare" anyone.
 

al78

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So many of these forecasters on national / local TV stations simply take it for granted that the whole population simply love steaming hot temperatures and they couldn't be more wrong. Scorchio is a common word used by the idiots on BBC East Midlands Today with beaming smiling faces.
I don't tend to watch the TV forecasts but in the past that sort of thing has been dependant on the situation. If it is a warm/hot spell after weeks of clag, rain and suppressed temperatures in summer, they will tend to project it as good news. If it is following weeks of drought, 30+C temperatures and local wildfires, it will be projected as something to be concerned about. It would arguably be better if they removed all emotive terms from any service designed to present information, otherwise there is always someone who gets rubbed the wrong way when the information is framed incorrectly according to their opinion/feeling.
 

dangie

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… It would arguably be better if they removed all emotive terms from any service designed to present information, otherwise there is always someone who gets rubbed the wrong way when the information is framed incorrectly according to their opinion/feeling.
I think weather forecasts should be just that, weather forecasts. By all means give out extra information important to health such as pollen levels, UV levels, pollution levels etc. but cut out the padding. I don’t need the presenter to tell me I’ll need my big coat on. The forecast should tell me that.
 

Buzby

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They just don't learn, do they.
Surely if they’re vulnerable, they’ll know? I learned the hard way being (almost) burn to a crisp in 1972 but learned a valuable lesson. Expecting a broadcaster to state the obvious each time is nonsensical, we’ll have a list of diabetic caveats on cookery programmes next? Then there’s nut allergies…
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Surely if they’re vulnerable, they’ll know? I learned the hard way being (almost) burn to a crisp in 1972 but learned a valuable lesson. Expecting a broadcaster to state the obvious each time is nonsensical, we’ll have a list of diabetic caveats on cookery programmes next? Then there’s nut allergies…
How on earth do you make a comparison between hot weather events over which no one has any control whatsoever and cookery programmes which are not a matter of the same genre and something the populace can choose to watch or ignore.
 

brad465

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We should drag Dan Corbett back from New Zealand, every weather forecast with him was full of charisma and charm irrespective of what the weather of the day/week was.
 

Essan

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We should drag Dan Corbett back from New Zealand, every weather forecast with him was full of charisma and charm irrespective of what the weather of the day/week was.
He was very popular amongst the weather community - including other professionals - which is always a good sign.

However the big problem with TV weather forecasts is that there is never enough time.

If you want a proper forecast look at the Met Office 10 day video outlooks posted on their FB page and on YouTube. Then compare and contrast with the 30 seconds you get on TV....
 

dangie

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If you want a proper forecast look at the Met Office 10 day video outlooks posted on their FB page and on YouTube. Then compare and contrast with the 30 seconds you get on TV....
Also look at the Met Office 10 day forecast, then in 10 days time look back and see what the weather was really like :)
 

Essan

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Also look at the Met Office 10 day forecast, then in 10 days time look back and see what the weather was really like :)
And then remember that a forecast is only a prediction of what is most likely to happen (often over a wide area and not specific to your back garden) based on the data available at the time. No-one knows what actually will happen until it happens.

The weather is not like a train timetable..... Oh, wait, maybe it is!
 

Magdalia

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I am vulnerable in high temperatures. This week I have done almost nothing as a result.

Also look at the Met Office 10 day forecast, then in 10 days time look back and see what the weather was really like
In the summer months I do this, though with the 14 day weather forecast for Cambridge on the BBC website.

Here in the Fens today is our 5th consecutive day above 25C, peaking at 30C on Tuesday 30/07.

The first BBC temperature forecast for Cambridge on 30/07 was made on 17/07, with a forecast of 21C. The daily sequence of temperature forecasts for 30/07 on 17/07-30/07 was:

21 21 20 23 23 24 25 24 26 27 27 28 28 30

When heatwaves occur there is a consistent pattern of weather forecasts not picking them up at all until less than a week away and then having a pattern of upward revisions to the forecast temperature, with the peak temperature consistently being forecast to be lower than what actually happens.

For a more than a week now I have been anticipating heatwave conditions, based on making my own adjustments to a clear bias in the forecasts.
 

Crithylum

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For a more than a week now I have been anticipating heatwave conditions, based on making my own adjustments to a clear bias in the forecasts.
I get the feeling this may be a sampling bias. Whenever there is a “possible“ heatwave and it does occur, you notice. When they predict the same “possible” heatwave which doesn’t materialise, you are less likely to notice. However this is somewhat deviating from the purpose of this thread.

I agree that it is a disgrace that BBC presenters are not required to be impartial when reporting weather. Unprofessional and childish for those who notice. Another bugbear of mine (also a bit off topic) is when a disaster causes death of “women and children”, when male adults have also died, and being a male adult does not materially impact what happened in the disaster. Fortunately this is becoming less common nowadays.
 

Essan

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When heatwaves occur there is a consistent pattern of weather forecasts not picking them up at all until less than a week away and then having a pattern of upward revisions to the forecast temperature, with the peak temperature consistently being forecast to be lower than what actually happens.

Apps are based on raw computer model output. It's very unusual for a computer model to accurately predict temperatures 2 weeks ahead. And GFS - the most common model used for apps - is well known to under-estimate temperatures even a day or two ahead. Although the record 40c of July 2022 was an exception to this (GFS actually picked up the likelihood of such high temps about 10 days ahead!).

Incidentally, I understand that one of the reasons the Met Office lost their contract with the BBC was that the BBC wanted a 2 week's ahead app and the MetO were unable/unwilling to provide that.

Personally I find the MetO app more accurate than the BBC one (which, to be fair, I rarely look at) - and even then, when a heatwave is expected, it often shows temperature a degree or two below what we end up getting (at least until just a few days ahead). However, surface temps can be determined by factors other than just upper air temp and sunshine - such as how dry the ground is - and I don't think the models work that in to their temperature predictions. Which is why you need human input.
 

Magdalia

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I get the feeling this may be a sampling bias.
Actually it isn't. I have been recording the data daily since the middle of June. I know enough about statistics to be aware of the risk of sampling bias, and that's why I have been recording the data every day.

Incidentally, I understand that one of the reasons the Met Office lost their contract with the BBC was that the BBC wanted a 2 week's ahead app and the MetO were unable/unwilling to provide that.
Thanks, I didn't know the 2 week issue.

I'm an old tech person and don't use apps, I read the data on the BBC website, though obviously that will be the same data. Does the Met Office have an equivalent way to access their data without using an app?
 

Buzby

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Incidentally, I understand that one of the reasons the Met Office lost their contract with the BBC was that the BBC wanted a 2 week's ahead app
I hadn’t heard that version. A whisper told me it was about the money, and Meteosat were cheaper and offered multi-platform versions of the data.
 

dangie

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Incidentally, I understand that one of the reasons the Met Office lost their contract with the BBC was that the BBC wanted a 2 week's ahead app and the MetO were unable/unwilling to provide that.
The Met Office were probably unwilling to provide a 2 week ahead forecast as they know that in the UK it is virtually impossible to accurately predict weather that far in advance. Obviously the BBC weren’t too bothered about that.

If the BBC had of asked me, I’d of given them a 2 week forecast, or even a month ahead forecast if they wanted it. Would it have been accurate? Undoubtedly not. But who cares? The BBC would have had their forecast, and I’d have got paid. Everyone’s a winner, accept of course those who want a reliable weather forecast.
 

HullRailMan

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I notice on the BBC News at 6pm and 10pm this week, with forecasted 30 degree temperatures mentioned for the south east, a female weather forecaster made absolutely no mention whatsoever of any health hazards to vulnerable people.

They just don't learn, do they.
Surely the purpose of a weather forecast is to tell you what they expect the weather to be like, not go through all the implications? You take the information and make life decisions accordingly. If you expect them to spoon feed every person that might be affected in every conceivable way the bulletin will end up going on for ever.
 

Bantamzen

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This kind of thing is far more reliable for working out the weather, and second only to looking out of the window:

Weather Rock - Wiki Page

The weather rock or weather stone is a humour display that pokes fun at the intricate technology used in modern weather forecasts, as well as the fact that their accuracy is less than perfect. A rock is typically hung from a tripod and accompanied by a sign indicating how to read it.[1] A portable example of such a display, "the famous Maine Weather Stone" of Audubon Camp, Hog Island, was described in late 1981.[2]

Instructions​

[edit]
Some examples of the instructions commonly provided for "reading" a weather rock include:

  • If the rock is wet, it's raining.
  • If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
  • If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
  • If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
  • If the rock is difficult to see, it is foggy.
  • If the rock is white, it is snowing.
  • If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
  • If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
  • If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
  • If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
  • If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
  • If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.
  • If the rock is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
  • If the rock can be felt but not seen, it is night time.
  • If the rock has white splats on it, watch out for birds!!
  • If the rock Is full of sand, Its most likely The beach
Weather rocks will sometimes include rules for proper maintenance of the system such as, "Please do not disturb the weather rock, it is a finely tuned instrument!"
;)
 

brad465

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This discussion reminds me of Mock the Week covering "Things you wouldn't hear from a weather forecaster":

 

Essan

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I'm an old tech person and don't use apps, I read the data on the BBC website, though obviously that will be the same data. Does the Met Office have an equivalent way to access their data without using an app?

It's all on their website


Use "Find a Forecast" and just enter your town of choice

I hadn’t heard that version. A whisper told me it was about the money, and Meteosat were cheaper and offered multi-platform versions of the data.

It wasn't the main reason, but I do recall that being one of the things the BBC wanted - and obviously the MetO don't do a 14 day app even on their own website. Mainly, I'm sure, because it's always going to change so much. I don't see the point in them myself. Even at 7 days they're really only useful for looking at trends - and giving folk reason to complain that "they" got the forecast wrong again!

As I mentioned above, IMO the MetO 10 day video forecasts ( https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH ) are by far the best indicators of weather for more than a few days ahead. Plus they explain the weather, and why they may be uncertainty etc. If only they were used on the BBC instead!
 

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