Brexit matters

[edwin_m]

On the assumption that the country does not gradually adapt and finds well being and prosperity without the EU strings?

Perhaps some believe that this 'nominal but meaningless freedom', as you put it, is worth these inconveniences for a while. Respect the view, even if not agreed with.

It's basic economics that that isn't going to happen. A country that trades freely with others allows its people to specialise on what they do best. A country that doesn't has to do the things it does inefficiently itself rather than outsourcing to someone who does it better, and trade restrictions cut both ways so it is equally impeded in doing the things it does well as a service to others.

The shtick about respecting the views of the elite group that pushed for Brexit is running a little thin. They won a referendum on the basis of lies and deception, and you've say yourself words to the effect that they rammed through a hard Brexit taking advantage of a narrow window of opportunity before things caught up with them. The result is that almost the whole country is objectively worse off economically, to which I add my own opinion that I'd rather be living in country that looks outwards and forwards and we now seem to have the opposite. They have played fast and loose with the British people, why do they deserve any respect?

 

[johncrossley]

Imagine if you lived in one of the rich EU countries like the Netherlands or Sweden. You wouldn't have to worry about Brexit and might even have a better standard of living compared to what you have in the UK as well as better public services.

 

[RT4038]

It's basic economics that that isn't going to happen. A country that trades freely with others allows its people to specialise on what they do best. A country that doesn't has to do the things it does inefficiently itself rather than outsourcing to someone who does it better, and trade restrictions cut both ways so it is equally impeded in doing the things it does well as a service to others.

I agree, but that doesn't include the moves towards political union and control. Perhaps the relationship needed resetting - impossible whilst in the Union.

The shtick about respecting the views of the elite group that pushed for Brexit is running a little thin. They won a referendum on the basis of lies and deception, and you've say yourself words to the effect that they rammed through a hard Brexit taking advantage of a narrow window of opportunity before things caught up with them. The result is that almost the whole country is objectively worse off economically, to which I add my own opinion that I'd rather be living in country that looks outwards and forwards and we now seem to have the opposite. They have played fast and loose with the British people, why do they deserve any respect?

A huge number of people voted for Brexit, for all sorts of reasons no doubt. As much as some people will have been duped, others will have voted Remain who are glad that we have left. To imply that all apart from an Elite have been duped is a little far fetched. Perhaps a lot of people value the concept of the freedom from EU laws and rules more than you do and do not see their own short term economic situation as the be all and end all (or haven't thought about that part too much at all); - clearly others (as yourself) value the FoM and EU membership more. Perhaps there are those who wish to be living in a country that looks outwards and forwards but not in an economic and political union that is trying to increase its grip on control?

Imagine if you lived in one of the rich EU countries like the Netherlands or Sweden. You wouldn't have to worry about Brexit and might even have a better standard of living compared to what you have in the UK as well as better public services.

In which case, anyone wishing to imagine that should have gone there and established themselves before Brexit took place. Not that many did though.

 

[REVUpminster]

What about remainer predictions that we would be doomed after Brexit. Where they lies from Cameron, Osbourne and others? We're still here despite an uncooperative civil service and Europe's attempts to hobble Britain.

 

[najaB]

On the assumption that the country does not gradually adapt and finds well being and prosperity without the EU strings?

I don't think anyone is saying that it's impossible for the UK to thrive outside the EU, however the question is what level of damage is Brexit going to inflict and for how long until we get to that point - if it takes us ten years to grow the economy back to where it was pre-Brexit is that ten years well spent, or ten years wasted?

What about remainer predictions that we would be doomed after Brexit. Where they lies from Cameron, Osbourne and others?

Could you provide some specific examples, please?

 

[Snow1964]

A huge number of people voted for Brexit, for all sorts of reasons no doubt. As much as some people will have been duped, others will have voted Remain who are glad that we have left. To imply that all apart from an Elite have been duped is a little far fetched. Perhaps a lot of people value the concept of the freedom from EU laws and rules more than you do and do not see their own short term economic situation as the be all and end all (or haven't thought about that part too much at all); - clearly others (as yourself) value the FoM and EU membership more. Perhaps there are those who wish to be living in a country that looks outwards and forwards but not in an economic and political union that is trying to increase its grip on control?

The problem is Brexit has pushed the country into a recession, high inflation and possibly stagflation.

The Trade deals done so far have been relatively poor, desperation to get some deals completed has resulted in giving away more than we will benefit from.

Industry has incurred extra administrative costs to import and export, squeezing margins, and resulting in bigger price increases than European competitors (depending on which statistic you believe about 3-6% of our inflation is directly due to Brexit. Although some politicians spin it as inflation is due to rising fuel and food prices caused by Ukraine war, and nothing else)

Its over 6 years since the referendum and most people can’t name a single post Brexit freedom that has improved their life, or saved them money. If can’t find any substantive gain in 6 years, you wonder if they ever will.

Yes we don’t have the EU making the laws anymore, but when you hear what new laws we are getting in next few months, not convinced have gained anything. We have the Northern Ireland change what Boris voluntarily agreed to do Bill as a prime example (ok I know that’s not its name, but it lets create a muddle, then change the muddle just as people are getting used to it, instead of going back to the simple No border rules we had before), who exactly does this new complicated world benefit.

Our new immigration policy, let’s make it difficult to find staff for roles in industries like NHS, care sector, picking food from fields. Meanwhile lets take many years to process anyone illegal. That was worth having wasn’t it.

Sorry, most people I know who voted for Brexit now feel it was a mistake because they were misled, those that voted remain are trying to find alternative ways of getting around the Brexit disaster until such time as we get a new Government that realises it was a multi billion pound folly that was a bad idea on trade and freedom of movement

 

[SynthD]

But last time I checked it was the norm, pretty much across the entire World, for people to need a visa if they want to live somewhere other than their own country (with specific agreements between countries to waive that generally being the exception).

We used to have one of the longest list of visa-free access to other countries. Most countries at the top of that list are in the EU.

imply that all apart from an Elite have been duped is a little far fetched.

I think they said the elite did the duping. Some of the elite.

 

[Busaholic]

Sorry, most people I know who voted for Brexit now feel it was a mistake because they were misled, those that voted remain are trying to find alternative ways of getting around the Brexit disaster until such time as we get a new Government that realises it was a multi billion pound folly that was a bad idea on trade and freedom of movement

I don't dispute any of that, to say the least, which is why I think Starmer's decision to now say, '' don't worry, we'll continue along the disastrous path of this government without deviation regarding Brexit'' was not merely ill-advised but downright crazy. Wanting to form a government is all very well, but you can't be everything to all people. You don't have to imply stupidity or ignorance amongst Leave voters, simply tell the truth, i.e.''you were deliberately lied to by unscrupulous people'', or words to that effect.

 

[RT4038]

I don't think anyone is saying that it's impossible for the UK to thrive outside the EU, however the question is what level of damage is Brexit going to inflict and for how long until we get to that point - if it takes us ten years to grow the economy back to where it was pre-Brexit is that ten years well spent, or ten years wasted?

I guess that depends on your view of the economic and political Union ?

 

[alex397]

What about remainer predictions that we would be doomed after Brexit. Where they lies from Cameron, Osbourne and others? We're still here despite an uncooperative civil service and Europe's attempts to hobble Britain.

“we’re still here” isn’t exactly a benefit of Brexit is it?

Also, do you have any evidence that ‘Europe’ (presumably you mean the EU, as we are still geographically part of Europe) is trying to ‘hobble’ us? If anything, they are trying to be far more cooperative than our reactionary and immature UK government.

Some of the remainer predictions, which were callously brushed off as “scaremongering” have come true, such as the very thing most people are talking about in this thread right now - increased bureaucracy at borders.

 

[najaB]

I don't dispute any of that, to say the least, which is why I think Starmer's decision to now say, '' don't worry, we'll continue along the disastrous path of this government without deviation regarding Brexit'' was not merely ill-advised but downright crazy.

I might have missed it, but I don't recall Starmer saying that there would be no deviation from current UK government policy. While I'm disappointed that he's ruled out re-joining the Customs Union and Single Market, that's a recognition that neither is politically or practically possible at the moment.

What he has said is that a Labour government is committed to working with the EU to try and reduce trade friction - implied in that is a degree of standards convergence which will reduce the need for the majority of customs checks. I also think it's pretty clever that he specifically said that attempting to re-join would keep Britain stuck "for another decade". I could be wrong, but I read into that the idea that this is Labour's ten-year position, but that nothing is ruled out after that.

 

[reddragon]

I think that most people don't understand what EU laws are or where they are created or why. I work in one specific industry setting standards in my field. I work with other engaged UK businesses in that industry, then meet up with wider EU representatives to agree common routes to improved design & safety standards. Brexit has had zero effect on this. We have a UK representative that goes to all the EU standards meetings that are also joined by people from the US & further afield. Brexit has no effect of these so called EU laws or rules because they are made for our common good so greedy businesses, builders or manufacturers cannot rip us off so easily.

Standards & laws are written to protect the end users, us the people not only from things going wrong but from constructors building on the cheap and us paying for it later. It isn't you or me who benefit from sweeping away EU laws but constructors & enablers or manufacturers who build things, produce things that like Grenfell go horribly wrong and make profits at our expense. British standards become EN standards then ISO standards, the same process is for laws.

A very significant proportion of EU laws & standards to protect us are written in the UK so do you really think they will vanish for any reason other than us being sold crap that fails before you would expect? Industries that do not engage suffer. UK railways suffered from the EU standard for EU loading gauge simple because they did not attend the meetings or get variations for the UK as everyone else did. That probably added billions to the GWML electrification project costs.

Please do not think for 1 minute that Brexit will lead to rules, standards or laws being scrapped for our benefit!

 

[DerekC]

I think that most people don't understand what EU laws are or where they are created or why. I work in one specific industry setting standards in my field. I work with other engaged UK businesses in that industry, then meet up with wider EU representatives to agree common routes to improved design & safety standards. Brexit has had zero effect on this. We have a UK representative that goes to all the EU standards meetings that are also joined by people from the US & further afield. Brexit has no effect of these so called EU laws or rules because they are made for our common good so greedy businesses, builders or manufacturers cannot rip us off so easily.

Standards & laws are written to protect the end users, us the people not only from things going wrong but from constructors building on the cheap and us paying for it later. It isn't you or me who benefit from sweeping away EU laws but constructors & enablers or manufacturers who build things, produce things that like Grenfell go horribly wrong and make profits at our expense. British standards become EN standards then ISO standards, the same process is for laws.

A very significant proportion of EU laws & standards to protect us are written in the UK so do you really think they will vanish for any reason other than us being sold crap that fails before you would expect? Industries that do not engage suffer. UK railways suffered from the EU standard for EU loading gauge simple because they did not attend the meetings or get variations for the UK as everyone else did. That probably added billions to the GWML electrification project costs.

Please do not think for 1 minute that Brexit will lead to rules, standards or laws being scrapped for our benefit!

Hooray! I sat on a (railway) EU standards committee for some years, and @reddragon is exactly right.

On more general note, I think much of the problems being encountered now are because Brexiteers can't move on from their victory and won't admit that Brexit has any downside. Last weekend's problems at Dover are precisely a result of that. Anyone can work out that if passport checks are going to take four times as long as before, you need approaching four times as many kiosks if queues at peak times are going to be no worse than before. And that can't be admitted to and planned for because Brexit has no disadvantages.

 

[najaB]

Please do not think for 1 minute that Brexit will lead to rules, standards or laws being scrapped is for our benefit!

Fixed that for you.

 

[Busaholic]

I might have missed it, but I don't recall Starmer saying that there would be no deviation from current UK government policy. While I'm disappointed that he's ruled out re-joining the Customs Union and Single Market, that's a recognition that neither is politically or practically possible at the moment.
tt
What he has said is that a Labour government is committed to working with the EU to try and reduce trade friction - implied in that is a degree of standards convergence which will reduce the need for the majority of customs checks. I also think it's pretty clever that he specifically said that attempting to re-join would keep Britain stuck "for another decade". I could be wrong, but I read into that the idea that this is Labour's ten-year position, but that nothing is ruled out after that.

Perhaps I should have said 'no significant deviation' was the impression I got. For instance, why is no-one from Labour shouting from the rooftops ''the chaos being experienced in Dover and Folkestone is a direct result of the Conservative government's insistence that every U.K. passport holder has to get their document stamped before they are allowed to leave the country'', as a result of which Natalie Elphicke might find herself thrown into the dock without benefit of lifebelt?

 

[SynthD]

Do people know where our domestic law is made? It’s think tanks, party headquarters, donors’ homes, and a little work done in select committees. It’s not in the House of Commons.

 

[reddragon]

Fixed that for you.

So true, just didn't want to say!

Do people know where our domestic law is made? It’s think tanks, party headquarters, donors’ homes, and a little work done in select committees. It’s not in the House of Commons.

How many working people who voted Brexit will ever have any say on what happened or will happen?

 

[AlterEgo]

How many working people who voted Brexit will ever have any say on what happened or will happen?

Not a good argument as you are effectively saying that nobody has a say anyway!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Apparently we did install extra booths at Dover - https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2...er-control-booths-in-attempt-to-reduce-delays

Absolutely ridiculous. There's a huge amount of space since the Travel Centre, car park and other infrastructure was demolished between 2011-2015, so there's really no excuse for not building more. For instance, at the entrance to the port, they could easily set up a large facility for passenger cars:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

You can see here that there's easily enough space here to install 12 lanes for cars, while maintaining a channel for trucks to drive forward to the truck controls. There's also a wide space that could be used for additional booths after the security controls (before check-in), and there's also this space: https://www.google.com/maps/@51.1277399,1.3409609,257m/data=!3m1!1e3 where the old Speedferries boat used to dock. The current frontier control area isn't even a quarter of the size of the area next to the old Speedferries linkspan, so it's clear that there's gross incompetence involved here.

What extra is needed at airports relating to Brexit? EU citizens use the e-gates.

Nothing. Maybe some expanded infrastructure for customs checks, but the UK hasn't shown any real interest in actually controlling anyone from the EU.

Every trip I now make to the EU costs more, takes longer & required lots of paperwork & forms. For business this is magnified and the UK PLC will suffer increasingly.

A minor annoyance on my part: I used to travel to the UK with just my Polish ID card because I couldn't be bothered carrying my British passport. I still theoretically can (I have to exit PL with the ID card), but now I have to carry my passport just in case. I've actually tried to use my ID card a few months ago, but I had to explicitly tell them that I was a British citizen, and it took a few minutes while they checked my details. They were also very, very unhappy about the fact that I didn't even have a Polish passport with me, because I don't see the point/need to get one.

 

[adrock1976]

What about remainer predictions that we would be doomed after Brexit. Where they lies from Cameron, Osbourne and others? We're still here despite an uncooperative civil service and Europe's attempts to hobble Britain.

Regarding lies from Cameron et al, in the run up to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, Cameron had said "If Scotland votes "No" to independence, then it will remain a member of the EU".

Also, another quote from Cameron (which was live on TV): "I want Scotland to lead the Union" Friday 19 September 2014.

Ever since the EU referendum result, the SNP have been agitating for a second independence referendum, which is currently moves to involve the Supreme Court.

 

[The Ham]

For clarification, the sharing of the article about Blue Badges was for information (as it's something that some might need to be aware of) and not a highlighting of a positive or negative thing.

Of course is it really any surprise that there's been things that have not gone as well as it could have done? You only need to look at the many government programs, policies and projects over the years to know that things weren't going to go as well as they could have.

 

[Berliner]

For clarification, the sharing of the article about Blue Badges was for information (as it's something that some might need to be aware of) and not a highlighting of a positive or negative thing.

Of course is it really any surprise that there's been things that have not gone as well as it could have done? You only need to look at the many government programs, policies and projects over the years to know that things weren't going to go as well as they could have.

Never mind things going as well as they could have. We have yet to see a single, tangible, actual benefit for actual people in this country. All we have had is things taken away! If, as you rightly point out, government things don't usually go to plan, why on earth were they trusted by so many to do this when the messaging in the first place was so vague? They told us we would gain and we haven't gained a thing! Quite the opposite!

Can anyone defending brexit name anything they have personally gained sincce we left or something they are personally set to gain? Surely one of you can? What is it you see that others don't? And I don't want some collective, mythical, thing the country might gain in X years to. I want to see an example of how someone's life has improved as a direct result of the things they lost due to Brexit or a brexit related policy that has come about.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Of course is it really any surprise that there's been things that have not gone as well as it could have done? You only need to look at the many government programs, policies and projects over the years to know that things weren't going to go as well as they could have.

I think that is exactly right. Too many Remainers point to every problem that has some vague possible connection with Brexit, as well as to everything about Brexit that didn't go exactly to plan, and use it to proclaim 'Brexit is a disaster'. Yet in reality, we don't know how things would've turned out if we hadn't Brexited. What things would've gone wrong inside the EU. What stories would have emerged about the EU causing the UK to do things that people didn't want, leading to people proclaiming, 'That's why we should've left when we had the chance'. What is certain is that some things would've gone wrong - simply because that's the nature of life: The World and politics is complicated and in the normal course of events, some things work out and some things don't.

 

[reddragon]

I think that is exactly right. Too many Remainers point to every problem that has some vague possible connection with Brexit, as well as to everything about Brexit that didn't go exactly to plan, and use it to proclaim 'Brexit is a disaster'. Yet in reality, we don't know how things would've turned out if we hadn't Brexited. What things would've gone wrong inside the EU. What stories would have emerged about the EU causing the UK to do things that people didn't want, leading to people proclaiming, 'That's why we should've left when we had the chance'. What is certain is that some things would've gone wrong - simply because that's the nature of life: The World and politics is complicated and in the normal course of events, some things work out and some things don't.

Maybe because so much has gone wrong and nothing at all has gone right?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The problem is Brexit has pushed the country into a recession, high inflation and possibly stagflation.

Ah yes. Because of course, since March 2020, other than Brexit, the World has proceeded swimmingly well, and there haven't been any other major events or pieces of bad news that might have caused recession, high inflation and possibly stagflation have there...

Maybe because so much has gone wrong and nothing at all has gone right?

Really? So you wouldn't count the UK away from the EU managing a far more efficient/faster initial Covid vaccine rollout that probably saved tens of thousands of lives and allowed us to open up when the rest of the EU was mostly still stuck in Covid-lockdowns as something 'gone right'?

People keep citing the disadvantages of ending freedom of movement - like the staff shortages in some industries. Yet no-one seems to mention the advantages: Less pressure on housing and services, lower unemployment, and higher wages. Do people being able to find jobs and getting higher wages not count as something 'gone right'?

Having said that, realistically, you're always going to mostly see things that have gone wrong because things that go right are generally not considered newsworthy, so we rarely hear about them. That's true in general, not just for Brexit. (Unrelated example that illustrates the point: Remember how the Elizabeth Line was always in the news when construction was was getting delayed. Have you noticed that now it's all running smoothly, it's almost never in the news - except on the days when something goes wrong!).

 

[SynthD]

We were still stuck in those lockdowns, by these brexiteer politicians. We still had high excess deaths.

Those advantages are what was promised, you haven’t shown it’s what happened. Immigration is still high, as orchestrated by the brexiteer politicians for their mates benefit. The higher wages point is occasionally accurate, though perhaps the media makes it seem more common than it is.

If there were some benefits wouldn’t the brexiteer politicians and the several media sources that back then be able to point them out? Wouldn’t anyone, even you, be able to do your own research and find them?

 

[The Ham]

Ah yes. Because of course, since March 2020, other than Brexit, the World has proceeded swimmingly well, and there haven't been any other major events or pieces of bad news that might have caused recession, high inflation and possibly stagflation have there...

Whilst that's true, it's also true that sometimes some of the things that have gone wrong have also been of our own making.

For instance yesterday there was a lot of newspapers covering the fact that there's a big shortfall in the number of NHS staff. Now a lot of that will be due to other factors (burn out due to Covid, a reducing working age population, etc.), however the inability of EU citizens to freely move to the UK for work will (to some extent) have made us less resilient to such factors. How much no one knows for sure, but with freedom of movement there would have been fewer vacancies within the NHS.

Yes, is never that wages have increased. However that's only useful if the wages have increased faster than inflation (which for the vast majority they haven't), now again how things would have turned out. However some are suggesting that inflation had increased by 2 percentage points more than other EU locations, so unless pay had gone up by 2% on top of what it would have otherwise done then pay increases are likely to be no better for many than if there was still freedom of movement.

Covid, especially with job lay offs was always going to result in EU citizens going home. It's then a question of how quickly they then came back again, out of the EU it's going to be slower than within. However, a lack of staff over the last 18 months (and therefore the upwards pressure on wages) would have still been likely. Whether that reduced inflation is unknown, however it's very unlikely to have been worse with it making at least marginally better being much more likely.

 

[Berliner]

Ah yes. Because of course, since March 2020, other than Brexit, the World has proceeded swimmingly well, and there haven't been any other major events or pieces of bad news that might have caused recession, high inflation and possibly stagflation have there...



Really? So you wouldn't count the UK away from the EU managing a far more efficient/faster initial Covid vaccine rollout that probably saved tens of thousands of lives and allowed us to open up when the rest of the EU was mostly still stuck in Covid-lockdowns as something 'gone right'?

People keep citing the disadvantages of ending freedom of movement - like the staff shortages in some industries. Yet no-one seems to mention the advantages: Less pressure on housing and services, lower unemployment, and higher wages. Do people being able to find jobs and getting higher wages not count as something 'gone right'?

Having said that, realistically, you're always going to mostly see things that have gone wrong because things that go right are generally not considered newsworthy, so we rarely hear about them. That's true in general, not just for Brexit. (Unrelated example that illustrates the point: Remember how the Elizabeth Line was always in the news when construction was was getting delayed. Have you noticed that now it's all running smoothly, it's almost never in the news - except on the days when something goes wrong!).

Clearly the ending of FOM has been a disaster for some industries. Airports, hospitality, care homes, Hauliers, farming and the NHS are crying out for staff and in some cases special visas had to be quickly offered to EU citizens to beg them to come back. Private companies are telling tbe UK government to relax rules to let them fill vacancies too as they can't get the staff locally.

So no, the over availability of jobs that were once popular amoung EU citizens is not a good thing at all as so many people here simply aren't applying for those jobs, so we were worse off as a result. If it was a win the country would not be screaming out for staff in these sectors.

 

[daodao]

Clearly the ending of FOM has been a disaster for some industries. Airports, hospitality, care homes, Hauliers, farming and the NHS are crying out for staff and in some cases special visas had to be quickly offered to EU citizens to beg them to come back. Private companies are telling tbe UK government to relax rules to let them fill vacancies too as they can't get the staff locally.

So no, the over availability of jobs that were once popular among EU citizens is not a good thing at all as so many people here simply aren't applying for those jobs, so we were worse off as a result. If it was a win the country would not be screaming out for staff in these sectors.

I suspect that many people who voted for Brexit didn't do so on economic grounds. They just wanted not to be bossed around by Berlin/Brussels, had had enough of too many foreigners, and/or wanted to put down the snobbish Cameron and his swarmy acolytes. I suspect that Cameron wouldn't have called the referendum, or would at least have set a higher bar for Brexit, if he had thought that there was even a remote possibility that he would lose it.

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge, and Perfidious Albion is now as popular in the EU (particularly in the original 6 EEC founder states) as the other 2 European pariahs (Belarus/Russia), so there is no way back in the foreseeable future.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Clearly the ending of FOM has been a disaster for some industries. Airports, hospitality, care homes, Hauliers, farming and the NHS are crying out for staff and in some cases special visas had to be quickly offered to EU citizens to beg them to come back. Private companies are telling tbe UK government to relax rules to let them fill vacancies too as they can't get the staff locally.

So no, the over availability of jobs that were once popular amoung EU citizens is not a good thing at all as so many people here simply aren't applying for those jobs, so we were worse off as a result. If it was a win the country would not be screaming out for staff in these sectors.

So, having acknowledged that it's bad that many industries can't get the staff they need (and I think we both agree that is a bad thing), let's make sure we understand the other side: Roll back 7-8 years and look at the situation the UK was in prior to Brexit: Loads of desperate people in the UK unable to find a job because in many industries - and particularly low-skilled areas: Retail, etc., there were vastly more people looking for work than there were jobs available (and it's reasonably clear now that Freedom of Movement was contributing to that situation). Do you believe it was a good thing or a bad thing that so many people were unable to get jobs?