Bus fare cap beyond election

[telstarbox]

Is the bus fare cap continuing beyond the next election? I can't see how operators will persuade people to go back to £5 or £6 singles after a couple of years at £2 ish.

 

[Snow1964]

It has had a few time extensions, but ultimately it is up to Government of the day if they want to keep subsidising it.

Might get another time extension, might not, and if it does cap value might change

 

[Buzby]

As I recall the £2.50 rate last month was abandoned to keep it at £2 for travel within England - they seem unclear what should be charged month to month, so knowing what happens after the election is really stretching it!

 

[miklcct]

Is the bus fare cap continue beyond the next election? I can't see how operators will persuade people to go back to £5 or £6 singles after a couple of years at £2 ish.

I think that the operators will calculate the increased ridership resulted from the £2 scheme and adjust to an appropriate fare (e.g. £2.50, £3) such that the ridership won't go away.

 

[Llandudno]

The £2 bus fare cap in England has been extended until 31 December 2024, which in all probability will be after the next election.

So it will be up to Sir Keir to decide as to whether it is scrapped and bus fares return to about double that amount in many parts of the country…

 

[Tetchytyke]

It’ll be for the winners of the next election to decide what to do with it.

I suspect that it’ll end up like ENCTS- a pre-election bribe that nobody will ever have the political bravery to withdraw.

 

[156421]

As I recall the £2.50 rate last month was abandoned to keep it at £2 for travel within England - they seem unclear what should be charged month to month, so knowing what happens after the election is really stretching it!

The £2.50 thing was abandoned as part of scrapping HS2. I seem to remember something like a £12 saving from Lancaster to Kendal was specifically mentioned in the press release for HS2 scrappage. This is presumably a very extreme example of the £2 cap vs. previous cost.

 

[Llandudno]

It’ll be for the winners of the next election to decide what to do with it.

I suspect that it’ll end up like ENCTS- a pre-election bribe that nobody will ever have the political bravery to withdraw.

Indeed it will, but I would very much doubt it will be Rishi’s decision…!

 

[dodecahedron67]

The £2.50 thing was abandoned as part of scrapping HS2. I seem to remember something like a £12 saving from Lancaster to Kendal was specifically mentioned in the press release for HS2 scrappage. This is presumably a very extreme example of the £2 cap vs. previous cost.

No it wasn't - keeping the £2 fare was already being mooted before HS2 was scrapped, and then the govt used it as a positive dead cat strategy "look what we've been able to do now we've scrapped HS2", conveniently ignoring the fact that opex and capex are different budgets and that one had nothing to do with the other - it merely had the fortune/misfortune to be ready to be announced at the same time as the HS2 scrappage

 

[Gloster]

I have asked about this in the Southern Vectis Information Office. Their information is that SV has not yet decided whether to remain in the scheme beyond 31 December 2023 and, if they do remain in it, what the fare will be. There have been rumours of an increase to £2.50.

 

[Edvid]

[Southern Vectis] has not yet decided whether to remain in the scheme beyond 31 December 2023

That is probably the typical position of OpCos a month out from BFCG milestones. At present I am not aware of any participating OpCo that's subsequently withdrawn from the scheme.

As for adult single fares, they must stick to the £2 cap or charge uncapped fares on a route-by-route basis. At least that's how it seems to me.

 

[156421]

No it wasn't - keeping the £2 fare was already being mooted before HS2 was scrapped, and then the govt used it as a positive dead cat strategy "look what we've been able to do now we've scrapped HS2", conveniently ignoring the fact that opex and capex are different budgets and that one had nothing to do with the other - it merely had the fortune/misfortune to be ready to be announced at the same time as the HS2 scrappage

Here it is from the gov.uk site... also I have history of not managing to do links right if so, Moderators, I am sorry and please let me know what is wrong with it.

North West to benefit from £19.8 billion transport investment

(UK government website announcing how the HS2 money will be spent in another areas)

Relevant quote from page:
Further benefits for the North West will include:
[Some bullet points removed for brevity but can be read at linked page]

• the popular £2 bus fare will also be extended until the end of December 2024 instead of rising to £2.50 as planned. This will mean passengers on a bus journey from Lancaster to Kendal will save £12.50 every time they travel

 

[RT4038]

That is probably the typical position of OpCos a month out from BFCG milestones. At present I am not aware of any participating OpCo that's subsequently withdrawn from the scheme.

As for adult single fares, they must stick to the £2 cap or charge uncapped fares on a route-by-route basis. At least that's how it seems to me.

An operator is either in or out of the scheme - with a few special; exceptions (school buses, tours etc) they cannot cherry pick which routes to have the cap on and which not.

 

[dodecahedron67]

Here it is from the gov.uk site... also I have history of not managing to do links right if so, Moderators, I am sorry and please let me know what is wrong with it.

North West to benefit from £19.8 billion transport investment

(UK government website announcing how the HS2 money will be spent in another areas)

The UK govt have announced it as such yes, but it was always going to be extended regardless of HS2. If you’d read my original message “keeping the £2 fare was already being mooted before HS2 was scrapped, and then the govt used it as a positive dead cat strategy "look what we've been able to do now we've scrapped HS2"

Never denied they’re badging it up as being as a result of HS2 being scrapped, but it’s a bit like conveniently claiming your classmate’s work when you’ve royally f’d your own up

 

[SWT_USER]

Are all local bus companies involved in the £2 fare scheme?

Specifically local to me, White Bus don't mention it at all on their website (https://www.whitebus.co.uk/media/1632/446_04dec2023_fares.pdf) and a single on the local bus to Woking from Hatton Cross is listed as £4.40 - but I can't see why they wouldn't be a part of the scheme.

EDIT: Answered my own question, White Bus are not taking part in the scheme. A shame. https://www.whitebus.co.uk/news/2-single-fare-cap-scheme-statement/

£2 Single Fare Cap Scheme
29/12/2022

It has been publicised that a number of bus operators across England will be participating in a new scheme to cap all single fares to £2 from 1st January until 31st March 2023. We wish to make passengers aware that White Bus will not be participating in the scheme.



As part of the DfT fare cap initiative, some Government funding is available to operators to cover the costs of the fare cap reduction. However, due to the way the reimbursements are calculated we would be out of pocket and we could suffer sizable revenue loss if we took part in the scheme.



As a business we are still recovering from the effects of revenue loss from the Covid-19 Pandemic. To participate in the scheme means the business would effectively have to fund a percentage of the offer to passengers that would not be covered by Government funding. The DfT funding is fixed and therefore this scheme would not be a viable option for us to undertake.



We understand that during these difficult times, some of our existing passengers may be disappointed to hear that we will not be taking part in the scheme; however it is also our opinion that reducing fares now and then increasing fares again in April, would also create a negative effect on passenger opinion and risk potentially losing passengers later in the year. We believe that keeping our fares consistent is a better long-term goal. Therefore all of the White Bus fares will remain frozen at current prices.

 

[1955LR]

Lugg Valley and Yeomans Travel in Hereford have already dropped out of the scheme. Stopped in April 2023

 

[RogerOut]

I’m now back working for a national operator. People have been used to paying the £2 for some time now.

I don’t think they can go back to the days of paying £4 or £5 for a single journey anymore.

If this was to happen I’m sure most operators would be knocking on the doors of the government, begging for investment.

Buses going to the point of collapse wouldn’t benefit any government, so ultimately they would end up being propped up by the government.You could argue they may aswell be nationalised again in this case.

Why would an operator choose to opt out of the government capped fare scheme ? Genuinely curious.

 

[Deerfold]

Why would an operator choose to opt out of the government called scheme? Genuinely curious.

For each period of this, each operator has been offered a price to be included in the scheme. Some operators don't think it's worth it. The calculations for this figure seem to be fairly opaque.
It's certainly generally less than the difference between all passengers paying normal fares and paying £2, but presumably most operators will see more passengers (certainly those who advertise the fare).

Some operators think they won't make up that difference.

 

[telstarbox]

From the Kent Online: https://www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/news/stagecoach-extends-2-single-fare-cap-298844/

Stagecoach says it found 23% of its customers were saying they were now making trips they would otherwise not have made.

A similar proportion of customers reported they had switched some journeys from private vehicles to the bus, taking cars off the road and helping to reduce congestion and improve air quality for everyone.

Claire Miles, CEO of Stagecoach said: “We are delighted to continue our participation in the £2 fare offer until at least the end of June 2024, giving more people the chance to see where the bus can take them.

 

[Roger1973]

Why would an operator choose to opt out of the government capped fare scheme ? Genuinely curious.

For each period of this, each operator has been offered a price to be included in the scheme. Some operators don't think it's worth it. The calculations for this figure seem to be fairly opaque.

On the basis that I'm not directly involved, so this may be less than accurate, but I have heard the argument from one operator that the DFT's offer to each operator was based on their network as it was before covid, so operators whose network has expanded for any reason (e.g. picking up services another operator has withdrawn) was being offered a very poor deal.

 

[RogerOut]

Worth bearing in mind that there will probably be a general election in spring next year. Maybe May?

If Labour do win , I wonder what their ideas for the bus industry will be and what will happen to the £2 cap being June.

 

[Cesarcollie]

Worth bearing in mind that there will probably be a general election in spring next year. Maybe May?

If Labour do win , I wonder what their ideas for the bus industry will be and what will happen to the £2 cap being June.

No government of any colour will have the courage to get rid of the £2 cap. It may increase by CPI. Other than that, there’ll be no new money for buses - there’ll be none spare and what there is will go on higher priorities. Undoubtedly ‘more local control’ but without extra money that might not mean a lot…..That’s my prediction anyway!

 

[richw]

The government have advertised to the public the scheme will run until at least December 2024, however have only negotiated reimbursement rates with operators until June 2024 so far.

 

[ChrisC]

I think the £2 fare cap has lasted too long now for it to be withdrawn easily. When it was originally introduced for 3 months it was probably seen by many as a bit of a gimmick, nice gesture or special offer and people saw it as that and never expected it to last. Now after more than a year, or 2 years if it lasts until December 2024, it has become the norm and will be difficult to reverse.

People, especially on rural routes, have now got used to only paying £4 for a return trip into town and will not easily adapt to paying £8 or £9 for the same return journey. On my local route passenger numbers have risen and are now probably higher than pre covid, and I think removing the £2 fare would see a dramatic reduction in bus passengers on many routes.

One thing I have noticed is the number of ENCTS aged passengers travelling before 0930, as they don’t mind paying just £2 to get into town earlier, especially on less frequent routes, where there is no bus immediately after 0930.

 

[Gloster]

It is noticeable that Southern Vectis announced a couple of months ago that the £2 fare had been extended, but they only ‘expected‘ it to run to the end of June 2024. From a reliable source it appears that they expect it to continue until the end of 2024, but they seem to be being careful about what they announce to avoid tying themselves up. It could be that the government has only committed themselves or negotiated up to the end of June, or there could be a price rise in the offing.

I if I were a cynic (me!), I would suspect that at this stage the government’s interest in the cap is mainly how it can be used at or after the next election: electoral sweetener or poisoned chalice for Labour. Decisions on its future will be mainly made on that basis.

 

[Leedsbusman]

It is noticeable that Southern Vectis announced a couple of months ago that the £2 fare had been extended, but they only ‘expected‘ it to run to the end of June 2024. From a reliable source it appears that they expect it to continue until the end of 2024, but they seem to be being careful about what they announce to avoid tying themselves up. It could be that the government has only committed themselves or negotiated up to the end of June, or there could be a price rise in the offing.

Funding for the cap is secure for 2024 at Deparment for Transport level but the reimbursement is agreed for Jan to June which operators have now signed up for. July to December is to be agreed in the spring to take account of any network adjustments etc.

Operators are in an odd position because despite the scheme being extended to December it was only last week that they could sign up to it and then only for six months for certain. It has rather become a formality now for most as the optics of selective withdrawal are poor!

 

[clagmonster]

How is the reimbursement calculated (not necessarily after exact figures)? I have noticed that some drivers issue all tickets to the terminus, claiming that it is £2 anyway. Does this result in the operator being reimbursed more money than if the driver issued the correct ticket?

Also, how is the scheme compatible with routes that are registered in segments to allow them to be run on stage carriage rather than coach driving regs (apologies,my knowledge in this area is sketchy). How do operators manage to charge £2 for a through journey rather than £2 for each segment - for example, why is an EYMS single from Hull to York rather than £4 for Hull to Pocklington and Pocklington to York.

 

[Leedsbusman]

How is the reimbursement calculated (not necessarily after exact figures)? I have noticed that some drivers issue all tickets to the terminus, claiming that it is £2 anyway. Does this result in the operator being reimbursed more money than if the driver issued the correct ticket?

Also, how is the scheme compatible with routes that are registered in segments to allow them to be run on stage carriage rather than coach driving regs (apologies,my knowledge in this area is sketchy). How do operators manage to charge £2 for a through journey rather than £2 for each segment - for example, why is an EYMS single from Hull to York rather than £4 for Hull to Pocklington and Pocklington to York.

It’s a fixed payment for the period effective, regardless of actual customers carried. It’s calculated using data from autumn 2022 seasonally adjusted and further adjusted for inflation and mileage changes.
Split reg services offer singles throughout but through fares on non-linked service are excluded. I believe Hull to York is £2 on X46/7 but if you went to, say, Foxwood on their 12 that’s a separate fare.

 

[richw]

How is the reimbursement calculated (not necessarily after exact figures)? I have noticed that some drivers issue all tickets to the terminus, claiming that it is £2 anyway. Does this result in the operator being reimbursed more money than if the driver issued the correct ticket?

Also, how is the scheme compatible with routes that are registered in segments to allow them to be run on stage carriage rather than coach driving regs (apologies,my knowledge in this area is sketchy). How do operators manage to charge £2 for a through journey rather than £2 for each segment - for example, why is an EYMS single from Hull to York rather than £4 for Hull to Pocklington and Pocklington to York.

It’s a fixed amount based on October 2022 revenues. Actual passengers and journeys carried now are irrelevant. If an operator needs to use a larger vehicle or dupes or increase frequency they will be out of pocket due to being based on October 2022 passenger numbers

 

[Leedsbusman]

It’s a fixed amount based on October 2022 revenues. Actual passengers and journeys carried now are irrelevant. If an operator needs to use a larger vehicle or dupes or increase frequency they will be out of pocket due to being based on October 2022 passenger numbers

It’s based on Sept, Oct, Nov 2022 seasonally adjusted using the monthly profile from 2019. The the operator will keep all £2 fares so increases in customers generate more revenue and the mileage factor provides for the impact of increased service levels providing they are forecast at the time of data submission.