Buses In Central London Post Crossrail (2018?)

[tbtc]

Has anyone heard anything about/ does anyone have any opinions about bus routes in central London once Crossrail is open?

Over the last few years, the disruption/ diversions caused by this massive infrastructure project have been justification for some of the gradual cuts by TfL (e.g. fewer "north-south" routes crossing from one side of Oxford Street to the other).

So I don't know whether going back to "normal" will mean some buses can go back to their old routes?

Or will the east-west mass transportation mean a reduction in some parallel bus services (8, 25)? Possibly less likely as Crossrail will have fewer stops (per mile) than Underground lines generally have.

Or will the desire to reduce bus services on/ around Oxford Street mean continued retrenchment (but TfL will have to come up with a different excuse, since they can't blame Crossrail roadworks)?

 

[matt_world2004]

Has anyone heard anything about/ does anyone have any opinions about bus routes in central London once Crossrail is open?

Over the last few years, the disruption/ diversions caused by this massive infrastructure project have been justification for some of the gradual cuts by TfL (e.g. fewer "north-south" routes crossing from one side of Oxford Street to the other).

So I don't know whether going back to "normal" will mean some buses can go back to their old routes?

Or will the east-west mass transportation mean a reduction in some parallel bus services (8, 25)? Possibly less likely as Crossrail will have fewer stops (per mile) than Underground lines generally have.

Or will the desire to reduce bus services on/ around Oxford Street mean continued retrenchment (but TfL will have to come up with a different excuse, since they can't blame Crossrail roadworks)?

I asked this when I did some work experiance , for now here is going to be no change in bus service there are still several uncertainties about crossrail that mean they cannot really plan some of the bus routes (There is a big question about the 140 and 105 with crossrail going to Heathrow and what fare heathrow might be )

In all bus routes effected by crossrail there will be stipulations in the contract allowing tfl to make variations in frequency and the type of vehicle used however nothing is planned at the moment,

 

[plcd1]

Here are the things we know with some level of certainty.

1. LT and TfL always review and rationalise bus services when major new rail links open. There is no reason to suppose that Crossrail will be any different.

2. A small number of bus routes have been removed from the tender programme where Crossrail is cited as the reason.

3. Route 25's contract term upon renewal was shortened to 3 and a bit years rather than 5 years. Crossrail was cited as the reason.

4. There are a number of route development studies that have published that look forward to the likely impact of Crossrail operating. One for South Newham shows restructured routes into Custom House for Crossrail interchange.

5. It has been stated that TfL are actively reviewing areas like SE London to restructure bus services when Crossrail opens.

6. The London Assembly Transport Cttee this week called for an early reduction in bus services on Oxford Street. There is a widespread belief that bus services will be significantly restructured in Zone 1 off the back of Crossrail opening plus Oxford St pedestrianisation.

7. The Deputy Mayor for Transport, Val Shawcross, told the London Assembly Transport Cttee that she had called for TfL to scrap their conservative approach to bus service planning. She said they need to "modernise" their thinking and radically restructure buses in Zone 1 and elsewhere so there were core corridors of services with people connecting elsewhere. She certainly envisaged major changes in Central London.

8. We know there is a funding crunch on the bus network. Patronage is down, revenue is down, the Hopper ticket will reduce revenue further as will a 4 year fares freeze. On the opposite side of this is massive pressure to "green" the bus fleet far faster than planned, the need for more bus service volume and new links in Outer London plus an upcoming review of buses serving hospitals and health facilities. TfL are on record as saying that part of the reason for rationalising buses on the Finchley Road corridor (out for a second round of consultation) is to save money so the funds can be used towards implementing "a long list of service improvements we want to make". TfL can't leave the network as it is because it's unaffordable. I will be looking very closely at the numbers in the updated Business Plan come December this year. I don't expect to see much good news.


Given all of the above I must disagree with Matt_World. It is very clear to me that possibly seismic and long standing restructuring of the bus network is being demanded by politicians, driven by external circumstances and is certainly planned by TfL. TfL have said that a major consultation on Crossrail / Central London changes is planned for the Autumn. Similarly the review of bus services serving hospitals is also due in Autumn and Assembly politicians are already clamouring for it. There will also be further consultations for other parts of London. We will see a series of changes right across London.

We have already had some preliminary changes in places like Ealing where routes have been made more frequent and single deck routes converted to double deck. Crossrail was part of the justification for this. The same has happened in parts of East London where routes connect into the Shenfield line.

For all of the above to have happened or be possible it is clear that a *lot* of planning work is going on and has been for years. It may not be finalised but it will be brought to a point where consultation can take place.

 

[Busaholic]

The bus routes that, on the face of it, would be likely to lose most custom after the introduction of Crossrail are the aforementioned 25 and the 86, the latter because of the doubling of train frequency over the Romford to Stratford corridor. On the other hand, vast disparities between the train and individual bus fares may mean that surprisingly large numbers choose to stick with the mode of transport they are used to, and pensioners might also prefer bus stops closer to their homes than the more infrequent stations.

Some decisions re bus service levels in areas to be impinged by Crossrail are being taken though: the 242, which roughly parallels Crossrail between Liverpool Street and Tottenham Court Road, is to receive a significant decrease in daytime service at its next contract early next year.

 

[plcd1]

Some decisions re bus service levels in areas to be impinged by Crossrail are being taken though: the 242, which roughly parallels Crossrail between Liverpool Street and Tottenham Court Road, is to receive a significant decrease in daytime service at its next contract early next year.

And be cut back to St Pauls at the same time.

 

[Busaholic]

And be cut back to St Pauls at the same time.

Really, that's news to me? The Bank to TCR/ Oxford Circus corridor has suffered more than anywhere in the last couple of years from Crossrail work, the Aldgate nonsense and sundry other things, so I suppose ridership has suffered. I don't walk terribly quickly these days, but a few weeks ago I walked from Holborn Viaduct to St Pauls one weekday lunchtime and was not passed by a single 8, 25 or 242, only a solitary 521. This would have been unthinkable in normal traffic conditions before 2014. In Routemaster days, you could often board an eastbound 8 at St Pauls of a lunchtime and, looking west, see the following two buses on the route making their way along.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would be very interesting to see central London have a go at the German Metrobus concept - a smallish network of key bus routes that can easily be mapped diagrammatically and have very high capacity and quality infrastructure. Other bus routes could still supplement, of course, as indeed they do in Germany, but would be decidedly secondary.

 

[Busaholic]

It would be very interesting to see central London have a go at the German Metrobus concept - a smallish network of key bus routes that can easily be mapped diagrammatically and have very high capacity and quality infrastructure. Other bus routes could still supplement, of course, as indeed they do in Germany, but would be decidedly secondary.

It could be said that London Transport began to implement this with the Red Arrow routes in the 1960s, which also introduced the idea of a flat fare, to considerable opposition from both unions and many in bus management! If the AEC Merlin had proved more reliable and if the ideal of cheap Central London garage space coupled with accommodation for the staff to run them, then we might even have such a system now. The Red Arrow concept was way before its time and its proponents prophets without honour - I even knew one or two of them, much senior to me.

 

[plcd1]

Really, that's news to me? The Bank to TCR/ Oxford Circus corridor has suffered more than anywhere in the last couple of years from Crossrail work, the Aldgate nonsense and sundry other things, so I suppose ridership has suffered. I don't walk terribly quickly these days, but a few weeks ago I walked from Holborn Viaduct to St Pauls one weekday lunchtime and was not passed by a single 8, 25 or 242, only a solitary 521. This would have been unthinkable in normal traffic conditions before 2014. In Routemaster days, you could often board an eastbound 8 at St Pauls of a lunchtime and, looking west, see the following two buses on the route making their way along.

The curtailment was in the tender announcement document released by TfL.

There was also a mention of a possible extension of the 388 to Elephant and Castle which was subject to consultation. I assume that's a precursor to changing the 100 as well - no point in having two routes overlap through Southwark.
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It would be very interesting to see central London have a go at the German Metrobus concept - a smallish network of key bus routes that can easily be mapped diagrammatically and have very high capacity and quality infrastructure. Other bus routes could still supplement, of course, as indeed they do in Germany, but would be decidedly secondary.

Can't see that happening. No money for it and not a Mayoral priority. Other than the Hopper ticket and cleaner buses there were no demonstrable commitments to improve buses from Mayor Khan (nor any of his challengers in the election).

 

[Busaholic]

The curtailment was in the tender announcement document released by TfL.

There was also a mention of a possible extension of the 388 to Elephant and Castle which was subject to consultation. I assume that's a precursor to changing the 100 as well - no point in having two routes overlap through Southwark.
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Can't see that happening. No money for it and not a Mayoral priority. Other than the Hopper ticket and cleaner buses there were no demonstrable commitments to improve buses from Mayor Khan (nor any of his challengers in the election).

I didn't see the tender document, only a secondhand report that neglected to mention the curtailment.
On the whole, I prefer it when the mayoral candidates don't mention buses, when it's so obvious most of them have neither an interest or a clue. I respectfully suggest that Val Shawcross is not a regular commuter by bus either if she is expecting people to make up to three separate bus journeys where one will now suffice.

 

[PeterC]

Other than the Hopper ticket and cleaner buses there were no demonstrable commitments to improve buses from Mayor Khan

As far as I can see the fare freeze is a commitment to a managed decline.

 

[plcd1]

I didn't see the tender document, only a secondhand report that neglected to mention the curtailment.
On the whole, I prefer it when the mayoral candidates don't mention buses, when it's so obvious most of them have neither an interest or a clue. I respectfully suggest that Val Shawcross is not a regular commuter by bus either if she is expecting people to make up to three separate bus journeys where one will now suffice.

It was the tender award announcement and in the footnotes info re route 242.

I can see what you're saying about politicians - most don't understand buses and what to do with them. However I don't like something that is so important in London as buses not having any policy intent. You haven't got a clue what you're voting for.

I think Val S takes the train into London Bridge for City Hall but I suspect she does use buses too. I would expect TfL to "politely" point out the flaws in breaking too many journey links in any "radical review". After all they have used "the disbenefits from breaking too many through journeys" as the justification for doing nothing for the 8 years of Boris's reign. I've seen the consultation response letters to stakeholders that use that "justification" for inertia.

As has been said elsewhere it is very likely that TfL will deliberately "bundle" a lot of the upcoming changes so it will be very hard to separate off comments route by route in the consultation process. I am also doubtful that TfL will provide detailed evidence and a business case for the changes. Given the many thousands of people who will be affected by the changes that's very unfortunate but TfL have too much at stake for it to be picked apart.

 

[smtglasgow]

I bet Sadiq regrets that 4 year fares pledge – particularly after he won so convincingly in the end. If he is to meet this pledge (and the Standard will crucify him if he doesn’t) AND meet the exponential growth in some parts of London, TfL are going to have to have to think hard about some of the over-provision in the current network – recent data seems to suggest that bus use in central London has either plateaued or is actually declining. Of course there are some of very heavy flows in zone 1, but there are also a lot of lightly loaded journeys and a lot of routes duplicating each other. In the run up to Crossrail, TfL should be able to use the data from Oyster to rationalize the central area routes while maintaining capacity where it is most needed.

As others have noted, TfL’s insistence on running the full service over the entire route isn’t the best use of resources. If the very real capacity problems in East and West London are to be addressed (from within a budget that will be effectively shrinking if fares revenue isn’t rising), then some managed reductions are inevitable. For example, when I was working in London, I lived in Friern Barnet and commuted on the 43 or 134. In the past both routes worked alternate journeys beyond Muswell Hill - now we get both routes running every 6-8 minutes over the full route which even at the height of the peak is overkill at the outer end. As long as reductions are proportionate, don’t break links and can be seen to free up resources to improve services in areas under pressure this could (perhaps!) be sold as an overall improvement. Crossrail will doubtless change travel patterns overnight, but I guess most of this will be in the suburbs (or abstracting passengers from the Central Line), so most of the bus-related changes will probably be around the stations further out.

 

[plcd1]

I bet Sadiq regrets that 4 year fares pledge – particularly after he won so convincingly in the end. If he is to meet this pledge (and the Standard will crucify him if he doesn’t) AND meet the exponential growth in some parts of London, TfL are going to have to have to think hard about some of the over-provision in the current network – recent data seems to suggest that bus use in central London has either plateaued or is actually declining. Of course there are some of very heavy flows in zone 1, but there are also a lot of lightly loaded journeys and a lot of routes duplicating each other. In the run up to Crossrail, TfL should be able to use the data from Oyster to rationalize the central area routes while maintaining capacity where it is most needed.

As others have noted, TfL’s insistence on running the full service over the entire route isn’t the best use of resources. If the very real capacity problems in East and West London are to be addressed (from within a budget that will be effectively shrinking if fares revenue isn’t rising), then some managed reductions are inevitable. For example, when I was working in London, I lived in Friern Barnet and commuted on the 43 or 134. In the past both routes worked alternate journeys beyond Muswell Hill - now we get both routes running every 6-8 minutes over the full route which even at the height of the peak is overkill at the outer end. As long as reductions are proportionate, don’t break links and can be seen to free up resources to improve services in areas under pressure this could (perhaps!) be sold as an overall improvement. Crossrail will doubtless change travel patterns overnight, but I guess most of this will be in the suburbs (or abstracting passengers from the Central Line), so most of the bus-related changes will probably be around the stations further out.

My own view is that the fares freeze will be broken before 2020 because government will force it to be broken. The Mayor wants rail devolution but the DfT controls franchises. TfL is already legally tied into certain matters on rail fare levels which will work against the fares freeze as time goes on. I don't see DfT voluntarily waiving those restrictions.

Coming back to buses I'm not convinced Crossrail will have that much impact in the suburbs in terms of journeys switching between modes to be honest. Frequencies and stopping patterns in the west mitigate against local journeys where buses are far more frequent and effective. The expected impact on buses is in the centre plus bits of trunk routes (route 25 keeps being mentioned). Routes will no doubt see some level of restructuring in order to reach / serve Crossrail stations but that will be more for commuters than for facilitating purely local journeys. There will certainly be change and TfL will certainly be looking for savings but it's not easy to rip up existing networks and then have no negative consequences for people.

 

[deltic]

plcd1 has hit the nail on the head - there is huge pressure to reduce the number of buses in central London post Crossrail with some expansion in outer London.

There is a study presently underway of buses in east London looking to identify future bus and bus priority option including demand forecasts which presumably is looking at impacts of Crossrail
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My own view is that the fares freeze will be broken before 2020 because government will force it to be broken. The Mayor wants rail devolution but the DfT controls franchises. TfL is already legally tied into certain matters on rail fare levels which will work against the fares freeze as time goes on. I don't see DfT voluntarily waiving those restrictions.

Coming back to buses I'm not convinced Crossrail will have that much impact in the suburbs in terms of journeys switching between modes to be honest. Frequencies and stopping patterns in the west mitigate against local journeys where buses are far more frequent and effective. The expected impact on buses is in the centre plus bits of trunk routes (route 25 keeps being mentioned). Routes will no doubt see some level of restructuring in order to reach / serve Crossrail stations but that will be more for commuters than for facilitating purely local journeys. There will certainly be change and TfL will certainly be looking for savings but it's not easy to rip up existing networks and then have no negative consequences for people.

The fare freeze relates only to fares under TfL control - travelcards increased as usual as they are not a TfL product.

 

[Busaholic]

I would envisage much greater bus demand in one particular area post-Crossrail, and that is in SE London where many living not too far from either Abbey Wood or Woolwich Arsenal and working in the City or West End will seek to reach those stations as an alternative to the North Kent and Bexleyheath Southeastern train services (possibly even from one or two Sidcup line stations too.) North Greenwich on the Jubilee might also see a switch to WA if the bus services
are up to it.

The re-structuring of the EL numbered services in East London next year also suggest to me that TfL are expecting some transfer of passengers from the District Line at Barking to Crossrail at Ilford.

 

[plcd1]

I would envisage much greater bus demand in one particular area post-Crossrail, and that is in SE London where many living not too far from either Abbey Wood or Woolwich Arsenal and working in the City or West End will seek to reach those stations as an alternative to the North Kent and Bexleyheath Southeastern train services (possibly even from one or two Sidcup line stations too.) North Greenwich on the Jubilee might also see a switch to WA if the bus services are up to it.

The re-structuring of the EL numbered services in East London next year also suggest to me that TfL are expecting some transfer of passengers from the District Line at Barking to Crossrail at Ilford.

I doubt North Greenwich will lose much patronage - it's popular because it's cheap being in Zone 2. People willingly trade a longer bus ride for a cheaper tube ride. I would expect Woolwich to be busy and completely agree about Abbey Wood. It has the potential to be a big draw for bus interchange if TfL restructure the services properly.

Don't understand about your "EL" comment. The EL1 and 2 have already been restructured. The only changes next year are an extension at Barking Reach for the EL1 plus the 387 being rerouted and extended at Barking Reach and renumbered EL3 with a slight frequency increase. None of that alters the service levels to / from Ilford. There was a recent thing I saw in LOTS' TLB that suggested the 169 was getting a frequency increase but that seems to have been very minor indeed with buses every 9-10 mins at certain times rather than x10 rather than a more meaningful increase.

 

[Busaholic]

I doubt North Greenwich will lose much patronage - it's popular because it's cheap being in Zone 2. People willingly trade a longer bus ride for a cheaper tube ride. I would expect Woolwich to be busy and completely agree about Abbey Wood. It has the potential to be a big draw for bus interchange if TfL restructure the services properly.

Don't understand about your "EL" comment. The EL1 and 2 have already been restructured. The only changes next year are an extension at Barking Reach for the EL1 plus the 387 being rerouted and extended at Barking Reach and renumbered EL3 with a slight frequency increase. None of that alters the service levels to / from Ilford. There was a recent thing I saw in LOTS' TLB that suggested the 169 was getting a frequency increase but that seems to have been very minor indeed with buses every 9-10 mins at certain times rather than x10 rather than a more meaningful increase.

I take your point about North Greenwich being in Zone 2, which I was overlooking.

I wouldn't major on the EL routes, although I believe there are some frequency increases beyond the EL3 slight one, and the fact that NBFL vehicles are being allocated for the first time to purely 'suburban' routes may indicate that TfL believe these routes are on the up.

 

[tbtc]

Thanks for the interesting comments.

I’ve found it a bit tricky to keep up with the various changes over the last few years, related to Crossrail (e.g. is the diversion of the 10 via Russel Square a permanent one or will it go back to Tottenham Court Road once Crossrail is open?).

TfL are good at showing things as they currently are, but that sometimes means that temporary diversions/ cuts look permanent (like the 53 being cut short at Lambeth, then extended back to Whitehall at a later date).

Whilst there’s been discussion about the parallel routes at the Liverpool Street end (8, 25, 242), there’s not been mention of services from Paddington towards Oxford Street. This will presumably be a big market for Crossrail.

Liverpool Street to Holborn/ Oxford Street has always had the Central Line spread over about half a dozen stations in central London, but the only reasonable Underground route from Paddington is the Bakerloo which only stops at Oxford Circus).

Could that mean the end of routes like the 436 beyond Marble Arch? Or the 7 east of Paddington?

Will having a high capacity east-west link mean that bus services become focussed more on “north-south”, so that they intersect with the new railway rather than compete with it?

Then there are the changes to demand on other Underground lines, which will have an impact upon connecting buses. Will the Abbey Wood – City passengers mean fewer passengers from that neck of the woods to Canon Street? Will a vastly improved service to GWML suburban stations mean more demand to those stations (at the expense of the Marylebone or Waterloo services or the Central Line/ District/ Piccadilly)?

If you’ve currently got the choice of a heavy rail service to Paddington or one to Marylebone/ Waterloo then I can see why Paddington currently looks unattractive (given poor onward connections, relatively poor frequencies and relatively short 165s). But with a huge capacity boost (long EMUs running more frequently) and through services to Oxford Street/ City/ Docklands/ Stratford, the GWML suburban stations may need additional bus services.

Ealing/ Southall become more important at the expense of Brentford/ Hounslow? With similar reductions on parallel Underground routes?

Could there be equivalent changes in east London, where the “slower but direct” Central Line loses its advantage over the “faster but terminates at Liverpool Street” GEML? Why sit on an Underground service from Gants Hill when you can get a through service from Ilford to Oxford Street? Would that affect bus routes?

But then, there are probably a lot of things I’ve not considered. For example, Failed Unit recently suggested that Thameslink/ Crossrail could mean some Great Northern commuters swapping the existing Moorgate services for Farrington ones (to change there instead).

 

[Busaholic]

Thanks for the interesting comments.

I’ve found it a bit tricky to keep up with the various changes over the last few years, related to Crossrail (e.g. is the diversion of the 10 via Russel Square a permanent one or will it go back to Tottenham Court Road once Crossrail is open?).

TfL are good at showing things as they currently are, but that sometimes means that temporary diversions/ cuts look permanent (like the 53 being cut short at Lambeth, then extended back to Whitehall at a later date).

Whilst there’s been discussion about the parallel routes at the Liverpool Street end (8, 25, 242), there’s not been mention of services from Paddington towards Oxford Street. This will presumably be a big market for Crossrail.

Liverpool Street to Holborn/ Oxford Street has always had the Central Line spread over about half a dozen stations in central London, but the only reasonable Underground route from Paddington is the Bakerloo which only stops at Oxford Circus).

Could that mean the end of routes like the 436 beyond Marble Arch? Or the 7 east of Paddington?

Will having a high capacity east-west link mean that bus services become focussed more on “north-south”, so that they intersect with the new railway rather than compete with it?

Then there are the changes to demand on other Underground lines, which will have an impact upon connecting buses. Will the Abbey Wood – City passengers mean fewer passengers from that neck of the woods to Canon Street? Will a vastly improved service to GWML suburban stations mean more demand to those stations (at the expense of the Marylebone or Waterloo services or the Central Line/ District/ Piccadilly)?

If you’ve currently got the choice of a heavy rail service to Paddington or one to Marylebone/ Waterloo then I can see why Paddington currently looks unattractive (given poor onward connections, relatively poor frequencies and relatively short 165s). But with a huge capacity boost (long EMUs running more frequently) and through services to Oxford Street/ City/ Docklands/ Stratford, the GWML suburban stations may need additional bus services.

Ealing/ Southall become more important at the expense of Brentford/ Hounslow? With similar reductions on parallel Underground routes?

Could there be equivalent changes in east London, where the “slower but direct” Central Line loses its advantage over the “faster but terminates at Liverpool Street” GEML? Why sit on an Underground service from Gants Hill when you can get a through service from Ilford to Oxford Street? Would that affect bus routes?

But then, there are probably a lot of things I’ve not considered. For example, Failed Unit recently suggested that Thameslink/ Crossrail could mean some Great Northern commuters swapping the existing Moorgate services for Farrington ones (to change there instead).

A quick response, may expand later if anyone interested.

The 10 diversion is permanent, replacing what was the 7, then the 98, service to the British Museum and Russell Square from Oxford Street, and providing an additional service from those places to Kings Cross.

Bus services from Paddington to Oxford Street have been heavily cut over the last few years. First the 15 was cut back, being replaced by an extension of the 159 from Marble Arch which never ran satisfactorily, and is now cut back again. The 7 and 23 have each had headways cut three times at peak and offpeak times. The 436 will shortly depart the area, as TfL have discovered a pressing need for passengers from Lewisham to get to Battersea Park rather than Victoria/Marble Arch/Paddington, with only a few extra journeys on the 36 to compensate.

Looking at where TfL are concentrating new bus resources, and where they are cutting back, it seems to me that there must be considerably less demand now in the Paddington/Kensal Rise/Willesden/Kilburn area, whereas Ealing, Wembley and Harrow are getting new links and some increased headways.

As for bus services in the swathe to the west of Paddington, I can't see Crossrail having much of an impact. The Central Line might well see some considerable transfer though, as it will in East London.

 

[Mojo]

A big consultation has just opened on the TfL website for changes with buses in the Oxford Street area:

https://consultations.tfl.gov.uk/buses/west-end-bus-changes/