Cambrian hourly service consultation

[Rhydgaled]

Options for the timetable have been on the table for years. The Dovey option was considered aswell, but knocked back due to there being no suitable waiting room at Dovey, even using the unit as a waiting room (as it has light, heat and toilets) was dropped.

Yet we still have timetables claiming bus/rail 'connections' at stations without waiting rooms. PPM for long-distance trains is 10 minutes, which means (given that buses don't wait for late trains) you really need to allow about 15 minutes between train arrival and bus departure. That, in my opinion, is too long to be called a connection unless passengers are fully sheltered from both wind and rain. A waiting room is required.

Returning to the topic of the consultation, how did WAG manage to so massively underestimate the number of responses expected?

“I can’t say too much at the moment, but what I can say is that on single commuter lines in the rush hours, if the surveys are to be believed, usage would increase by 370 per cent if the hourly service was introduced.

370% increase from what starting point? And just on rush-hour services or across the whole day? Are we talking an increase big enough that all trains will need to be 4-car, not just alternate services east of Machynlleth thanks to the coast portions?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yet we still have timetables claiming bus/rail 'connections' at stations without waiting rooms. PPM for long-distance trains is 10 minutes, which means (given that buses don't wait for late trains) you really need to allow about 15 minutes between train arrival and bus departure. That, in my opinion, is too long to be called a connection unless passengers are fully sheltered from both wind and rain. A waiting room is required.

Returning to the topic of the consultation, how did WAG manage to so massively underestimate the number of responses expected?

370% increase from what starting point? And just on rush-hour services or across the whole day? Are we talking an increase big enough that all trains will need to be 4-car, not just alternate services east of Machynlleth thanks to the coast portions?

Consultation =based on what stat people expect from previous similar things and population of area, however a very strong, numerous and clear message has been sent which shows what we've known all along that there is a lot of latent demand in the local population in Mid Wales for a more frequent train service. From what I'm told the survey was the Ministers idea her herself so i would imagine the decision making from here in will be with her as her decision to let the people speak has been vindicated.

370% = I imagine given the questions on the survey they've compared the how often do you use the train now with the how often would you use the train if questions on it. I would imagine the extra trains in peak hours is the winner all round. After all I've saying for years that if you filled the 0711 to 0925 arrival gap into Shrewsbury gap around 0830 you'd be beating people off with a stick.

Having been involved in surveys I know they dumbbell or polarize with those most for or most against responding with the vast majority in the middle unknown. The catchment along the Medium Super Output areas along the Cambrian Mainline is c 80K so to get 6500 responses is good going and fills the unknowns in a bit.

 

[merlodlliw]

From what I'm told the survey was the Ministers idea her herself so i would imagine the decision making from here in will be with her as her decision to let the people speak has been vindicated.

The Minister has no trust in the Area Transport Consortias set up by her previous Ministers, she is bypassing them with this survey,The AM for Aber has a lot to do with pushing for this survey as well.

In North Wales a separate travel inquiry is underway bypassing Taith & Chaired by Lesley Griffiths AM for Wrexham & a very very close colleague of Edwina Hart the WG rail Minister.

Whatever my opinion of The Rail Minister over her handling of the Wrexham rail double, I never considered The North Wales Area Travel Consortia Taith to represent its area properly, So changes are in the offing, so long as its not a dictatorship taking all powers into Cardiff Bay,

 

[IKBrunel]

Realistically getting any spare units is now locked into the Wrexham redouble as the journey time improvements will cut down by one the units needed on the CDF to HHD diagrams and a 175 can replace the 158 that currently overnights in Carmathen.

Ah... And the Wrexham redouble is planned for Spring 2015, so no chance of Cambrian hourly this side of Summer 2015. So why the sudden decision to do a survey and rush out an announcement?

 

[merlodlliw]

Ah... And the Wrexham redouble is planned for Spring 2015, so no chance of Cambrian hourly this side of Summer 2015. So why the sudden decision to do a survey and rush out an announcement?

In my opinion a Minister licking wounds after her chaotic handling of the Wrexham redouble debacle & attempting to show she now has all Wales rail interests, If the Minister comes up with the revenue money for May 2014, ATW will find stock,that's what ATW have always said.
Gareth will know what behind the rush.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Ah... And the Wrexham redouble is planned for Spring 2015, so no chance of Cambrian hourly this side of Summer 2015. So why the sudden decision to do a survey and rush out an announcement?

New Minister simple as, and a new Minister who we are told is more likely to listen to grass roots than a briefing from her Officials.

Unlikely to be an hourly service but some peak time extras that might be possible by shuffling about existing resources.

 

[merlodlliw]

New Minister simple as, and a new Minister who we are told is more likely to listen to grass roots than a briefing from her Officials.

Unlikely to be an hourly service but some peak time extras that might be possible by shuffling about existing resources.

If the Ministers officials advice had anything to do with the Wrexham redouble fiasco,I am not surprised,I had a boss who occasionally walked around the shop floor,to find out what was really going on,much to the upset of his Managers.

I would expect peak time extras,a lot of 158s never see the Cambrian in daylight,like the early morning 2X4 158 units on the Chester/Manchester runs which replaced 2 X 3 car 175s. But if monies on the table ATW will find a way.
May 2014 timetable is now being put together,so there is a rush if this is to be caught.

 

[The Planner]

May 14 is offered to the TOCs in just over a fortnight.

 

[merlodlliw]

May 14 is offered to the TOCs in just over a fortnight.

Thanks for that Planner,it would seem the Ministers rush seems to tie up with some extras on the Cambrian from next May.
Perhaps the Minister will trial some peak extras for a fixed term,much like the IWJ Fishguard trial, however the Cambrian in my opinion will capture the passengers.
No problem with ATW finding 158s, if the monies on the table.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Perhaps the Minister will trial some peak extras for a fixed term,much like the IWJ Fishguard trial, however the Cambrian in my opinion will capture the passengers.

Are you suggesting the Fishguard service isn't capturing passengers? Figures from the first year seemed to live up to expectations, though I'm not sure if the second year's figures are out yet.

I agree extra services on the Cambrian main line should be well used though. I hope that if 'peak extras' is all we get in the short term that it doesn't stand in the way of, or delay, a full daytime hourly service.

No problem with ATW finding 158s, if the monies on the table.

True. I'm more concerned about what will happen to the existing services the 158s come from:

• If from the Cambrian, then concerns about capacity and waste of 158s on Machynlleth-Pwllheli runs that don't continue to/from Shrewsbury/Birmingham
• If from north Wales, replacement with stock unsuitable for the length of journey
• If from south Wales ditto north Wales, although some long journeys down there already have inappropriate stock diagrammed

 

[jones_bangor]

I agree extra services on the Cambrian main line should be well used though. I hope that if 'peak extras' is all we get in the short term that it doesn't stand in the way of, or delay, a full daytime hourly service.

True. I'm more concerned about what will happen to the existing services the 158s come from:

• If from the Cambrian, then concerns about capacity and waste of 158s on Machynlleth-Pwllheli runs that don't continue to/from Shrewsbury/Birmingham
• If from north Wales, replacement with stock unsuitable for the length of journey
• If from south Wales ditto north Wales, although some long journeys down there already have inappropriate stock diagrammed

The key point here is peak travel time - finding 158s for extra "peak time" services will be the challenge, even if there's plenty of them sitting on sidings "off peak"!

 

[Rhydgaled]

even if there's plenty of them sitting on sidings "off peak"!

I don't think there are many ATW 158s sitting on sidings at all, peak or otherwise.

 

[merlodlliw]

The key point here is peak travel time - finding 158s for extra "peak time" services will be the challenge, even if there's plenty of them sitting on sidings "off peak"!

One of the two early morning 4 unit 158s on the Chester/Manchester run could be replaced with a couple of half hourly 175s as occurs in the evening from Piccadilly.

If money is on the table ATW will find some stock.

[

QUOTE=Rhydgaled;1607257]Are you suggesting the Fishguard service isn't capturing passengers? Figures from the first year seemed to live up to expectations, though I'm not sure if the second year's figures are out yet.

I understand current figures are not so good according to chatter,but I have no evidence.

Also The Minister is also getting a rough time from the AM for Ceredigion over the loss of Arriva buses in her area,a couple of extra trains would be a welcome sweetner.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I understand current figures are not so good according to chatter,but I have no evidence.

Does 'not good' mean falling, rising less than anticipated or simply low compared to other lines?

The latter wouldn't be supprising given the service is still fairly poor, with 3.5hr and 5hr gaps in the daytime service.

Also The Minister is also getting a rough time from the AM for Ceredigion over the loss of Arriva buses in her area,a couple of extra trains would be a welcome sweetner.

Was it this minister that signed off the use of 3 buses originally intended for the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen route (one of those Arriva are canceling) on the Cardiff Airport Express?

 

[D1009]

I don't think there are many ATW 158s sitting on sidings at all, peak or otherwise.

Apart from the car that's been sat outside Bristol Barton Hill depot for the last few months!

 

[merlodlliw]

Was it this minister that signed off the use of 3 buses originally intended for the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen route (one of those Arriva are canceling) on the Cardiff Airport Express?

[/QUOTE]


Yes the same/current Minister,

 

[Rhydgaled]

Apart from the car that's been sat outside Bristol Barton Hill depot for the last few months!

Yes well, that unit's broken. And I suspect that class 150s are having to be used on workings booked for 158s more often because of it, they didn't have a siding full of spare 158s that they could use to cover for the absence of that one.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

The Minister has no trust in the Area Transport Consortias set up by her previous Ministers, she is bypassing them with this survey,The AM for Aber has a lot to do with pushing for this survey as well.

In North Wales a separate travel inquiry is underway bypassing Taith & Chaired by Lesley Griffiths AM for Wrexham & a very very close colleague of Edwina Hart the WG rail Minister.

Whatever my opinion of The Rail Minister over her handling of the Wrexham rail double, I never considered The North Wales Area Travel Consortia Taith to represent its area properly, So changes are in the offing, so long as its not a dictatorship taking all powers into Cardiff Bay,

It was well known that when the current Minister had the responsibility for Health she had a close relationship with the Health Unions.

 

[Gareth Marston]

As a value for money exercise or cost of support for bums on seats on public transport Cambrian extras will always wipe the floor with Fishguard. At the end of the day Fishguard is rural town of c4,000 with a similar rural hinterland in North Pemrokeshire it was never going to spit out big numbers. Northern Ceredigion and the Upper Severn valley are a different kettle of fish population wise even though their in a rural area. The catchment is easily 10 times that of North Pembrokeshire. This is something I know the line liaison committee wil be keen to point out if the relative "failure" of Fishguard is brought up. Whilst Welsh Government has predicted big population increases for Cardiff and modest ones elsewhere analysis at medium super output level , the tier beneath UA shows different patterns. Aberystwyth and the upper Severn valley grew at rates similar to and greater than Cardiff between 01 & 11.

 

[Rhydgaled]

As a value for money exercise or cost of support for bums on seats on public transport Cambrian extras will always wipe the floor with Fishguard. At the end of the day Fishguard is rural town of c4,000 with a similar rural hinterland in North Pemrokeshire it was never going to spit out big numbers. Northern Ceredigion and the Upper Severn valley are a different kettle of fish population wise even though their in a rural area.

I can agree with all that. In my view though that doesn't mean Fishguard shouldn't have more trains, but it certainly shows there is an massively strong case for Cambrian service improvements.

This is something I know the line liaison committee wil be keen to point out if the relative "failure" of Fishguard is brought up.

That depends on what it is relative to. The question at the end of the trial should be whether the numbers are good given the small catchment and still relatively poor serivce. Saying it is a failure because it doesn't produce the numbers a station with a far larger catchment does would be an entirely different proposition.

I think the Jacobs report valued the BCR at 2.36 and predicted a first year increase of 21,200 with a reopened station and shuttle services between Fishguard and Carmarthen (does anyone know at what frequency?). And the first year result, according to fishguardtrains.info, was:

The increase of 20,881 was achieved without the benefit of Fishguard and Goodwick for three-fifths of the period.

As well as lacking the station, the service has Clarbeston Road shuttles (one of which has no connection from the wider world) rather than all going as far as Carmarthen.

So what that a Cambrian hourly service would beat the Fishguard trains hands down in terms of passenger numbers and probably BCR, they're both still/would be positive developments. All it means in my view is that the Cambrian service should have been a higher priority (and actually the WAG NTP said hourly by 2011, so if the promise had been kept it would have been implemented over 6 months before Fishguard).

 

[Gareth Marston]

I can agree with all that. In my view though that doesn't mean Fishguard shouldn't have more trains, but it certainly shows there is an massively strong case for Cambrian service improvements.

That depends on what it is relative to. The question at the end of the trial should be whether the numbers are good given the small catchment and still relatively poor serivce. Saying it is a failure because it doesn't produce the numbers a station with a far larger catchment does would be an entirely different proposition.

I think the Jacobs report valued the BCR at 2.36 and predicted a first year increase of 21,200 with a reopened station and shuttle services between Fishguard and Carmarthen (does anyone know at what frequency?). And the first year result, according to fishguardtrains.info, was:
As well as lacking the station, the service has Clarbeston Road shuttles (one of which has no connection from the wider world) rather than all going as far as Carmarthen.

So what that a Cambrian hourly service would beat the Fishguard trains hands down in terms of passenger numbers and probably BCR, they're both still/would be positive developments. All it means in my view is that the Cambrian service should have been a higher priority (and actually the WAG NTP said hourly by 2011, so if the promise had been kept it would have been implemented over 6 months before Fishguard).

It's been suggested to me that IWJ pinched the Cambrian money back in 2011.

The East Suffolk, Newquay and Falmouth lines all recorded 60% average increases in the first two years after frequency was doubled. That would be in excess of half a million if replicated on the Cambrian. No two lines are the same but the three above all came out around the 60% mark which is the only real evidence we can compare with. Industry planning tools as we know are hopeless.

 

[merlodlliw]

So what that a Cambrian hourly service would beat the Fishguard trains hands down in terms of passenger numbers and probably BCR, they're both still/would be positive developments. All it means in my view is that the Cambrian service should have been a higher priority (and actually the WAG NTP said hourly by 2011, so if the promise had been kept it would have been implemented over 6 months before Fishguard).

[/QUOTE]

One has to remember the Fishguard service trial also had a Political motive,it was rushed,leaving 5 hour gaps,plus no thought of summer Sunday tourist trains ( like Conwy Valley),but good luck to the service,if funding is found to keep it running,the timetable requires major adjustment,from the current Ministers statements,if a bus service is running or will run in the very same area,I suspect the trial may well be at risk in my opinion

It's been suggested to me that IWJ pinched the Cambrian money back in 2011.

The suggestion may well be correct,Cambrian land in Powys politics wise only ever returns Libs & Tories, so no benefit to a Lab/Plaid Minister but at a cost to the excellent plaid AM in Aberyswyth(Ceredigion) my opinion of course.

 

[anthony263]

The main problem with the Fishguard services is the eractic timetable

If the shuttles ran through to Carmarthen connecting with the through services to Manchester which start from Carmarthen then I think the services would be more attractive to passengers

 

[Late Trains uk]

If they ever get round to an hourly service, will the Coast Train from Tywyn meet the Aberystwyth train at Dovey Junction or Machynlleth?

And would the Train from Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury then cross at Dovey Junction?

This would then require passengers from Aberystwyth - Tywyn to change at Machynlleth for the next coast service as the loop at Dovey Junction has no platform.

Also when the hourly service commences then two platforms at Machynlleth will be needed more than they are now.

A lift is the best option for disabled passengers needing to buy a ticket, change or join at Machynlleth.

Currently the option is a barrow crossing by the old Signal box and a trip through rail Maintenance yards, or trying to walk down a steep uneven path then on this very narrow and high path/or on the Road under the Railway bridge (which is often under Water).

Also I believed that the issue of finding space on the Wolverhampton - Birmingham line to add the extra service was the main issue that was currently holding things up, and wasn't this also why the Aberystwyth - Euston service (which Arriva proposed) refused?

If that's the case couldn't the extra service terminate at Salop, travel to Cardiff, Chester or Crewe/Manchester?

 

[merlodlliw]

The main problem with the Fishguard services is the eractic timetable

If the shuttles ran through to Carmarthen connecting with the through services to Manchester which start from Carmarthen then I think the services would be more attractive to passengers

You are of course correct,it was never thought out by IWJ and took ATW by surprise,if the WG rail unit?/ATW/ORR/locals had been properly consulted,it may well have been Carmarthen, but only Fishguard appeared to be in the then Ministers political eye, we shall never know.

 

[tbtc]

Surely the Fishguard service is more about ticking a box so that those in Pembrokeshire can be placated, rather than a serious attempt to improve the rail links.

There are much better uses of a spare unit than on these randomly timed extra Fishguard services, of course, but that's politics.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Surely the Fishguard service is more about ticking a box so that those in Pembrokeshire can be placated, rather than a serious attempt to improve the rail links.

There are much better uses of a spare unit than on these randomly timed extra Fishguard services, of course, but that's politics.

Fishguard was built solely for Southern Irish traffic , we can't assume that the low cost Airline bubble will continue for ever so keeping the ferry link is prudent sensible long term planning. Having a rail service thats no use to the local population due to the time of the tide is crackers, but a sensible service must be part of a long term development plan for services west of Swansea not a bolt on to existing patterns done in a rush.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Maybe time for a comprehensive review of West Wales - especially with the 25kV schemes and plans. Already discussed in part I know - but there must be some underused rolling stock capacity which could recycle some 175 mileage to recycle some 158's as a cascade. Have to be carefully done on a "need" and "loadings" basis so no major disbenefits to existing users as far as possible.

Plenty of resources on here to think about , I am sure !

 

[Rhydgaled]

time for a comprehensive review of West Wales - especially with the 25kV schemes and plans.

Agreed.

I've probably outlined my view of what the outcome of such a review should be several times, and this isn't the right topic for another repeat.

 

[anthony263]

Maybe we should have a seperate thread for the west wales idea's rather than use this thread which is for the Cambrian.

Hopefully we can see the WG and ATW at least put on an hourly Cambrian service during the peaks, eg 06:30 and 08:30 from Aberytsywth to Shrewsbury and something like 16:30 & 18:30 from Shrewsbury.

This should take off some pressure on the existing Cambrian services as well as help encourage more passengers to use the route as the service is more frequent than it currently is and there is slightly less overcrowding.

Once the electrification schemes start to bear fruit and we get a large DMU casade hopefully WG will be able to grab hold of some additional class 158's which can be used on the Cambrian and if there are some still available then use them on other services operated by the Wales & Borders franchse.