Network Rail is nationalised.
I thought it was an arm's length agency?
Network Rail is nationalised.
Let's face it, pre Covid, the rail network was creaking at the seams. A drop of 20% would be beneficial for the running of the network. However the funding shortfall that would create would have to be plugged by the government.
This is true.
A less "peaky" peak could be the best thing to happen to the railway for regular travellers for years.
I thought it was an arm's length agency?
And would save the railway an absolute fortune on rolling stock that sits around doing nothing between the peaks as well as staff to drive/guard it.
The national timetable could look a lot more like the Avanti timetable - pretty much the same all day from start to finsh of service.
Ideally, it would be good if some of that rolling stock could be re-distributed to the sort of services that will be proportionately more important markets (i.e. leisure), however electrification would prevent this in it's fullest potential.
Let’s face it, back at the start of the year, we were endlessly complaining about poor punctuality and overcrowding on many TOCs, particularly SWR and Northern. Do we really want a return to that?
Covid has eliminated crowding as we know it on trains, and despite this causing an income shortfall, it would be much better in the long run if peak demand is spread out. All-time high punctuality is another unexpected side effect of this crisis, but one which is greatly welcomed and should be maintained once things are back to some sort of normality.
As others have said, spreading out peak demand is the way to go. It would remove the need for excess stock staying idle in depots during the day, therefore reducing costs. Also, running slightly fewer but longer trains would help ease overcrowding and keep punctuality at improved levels, something people were crying out for long before Covid.
Sorry, caught Post Reply with my sleeve before adding my comments
If this were to happen, there would be many consequences; fewer on-train staff, fewer maintenance staff - redundancies. Almost all trains are on lease, possibly on a fixed term. Even if the unwanted peak hour trains were cascaded to replace old stock, there would still be a surplus of trains. How could lease costs be avoided - I don't know whether it's possible to just 'return the keys' without penalty. Railways are regarded by government as indispensable in coping with commuter flows into major cities - if demand drops considerably, would a government continue the subsidies, or regard other transport modes as able to cope instead?
I don't know the answers, but what seems not to be noticed is that figures suggest that the UK has had an 11%, or thereabouts, fall in GDP as a result of Covid. Perhaps this doesn't follow, but this could mean that 89% of business remains working. I don't think trains are carrying anything like 89% of previous figures- - working from home and flexible working is part of the reason, but will this be completely restored at some time in the future?
Indeed, but with a significant amount of people now working from home for at least some of the time and employers being asked to stagger start times to prevent a rush-hour on public transport, it’s possible thay running a consistent, reliable service through the day will be more effective and sensible than cramming everything on during the peaks and then having a much quieter service during the rest of the day (this may actually allow for longer stock as well, making journeys more comfortable at all times)I can't see there being much smoothing out of the peak. Excluding shift workers and part time most people's working hours fall somewhere between 8am and 6pm. Assuming an 8 hour day that gives a limited range of movement.
Sorry, caught Post Reply with my sleeve before adding my comments
If this were to happen, there would be many consequences; fewer on-train staff, fewer maintenance staff - redundancies. Almost all trains are on lease, possibly on a fixed term. Even if the unwanted peak hour trains were cascaded to replace old stock, there would still be a surplus of trains. How could lease costs be avoided - I don't know whether it's possible to just 'return the keys' without penalty. Railways are regarded by government as indispensable in coping with commuter flows into major cities - if demand drops considerably, would a government continue the subsidies, or regard other transport modes as able to cope instead?
I don't know the answers, but what seems not to be noticed is that figures suggest that the UK has had an 11%, or thereabouts, fall in GDP as a result of Covid. Perhaps this doesn't follow, but this could mean that 89% of business remains working. I don't think trains are carrying anything like 89% of previous figures- - working from home and flexible working is part of the reason, but will this be completely restored at some time in the future?
I have done a couple of rail trips over the past month, both off peak. Three Saturdays ago I did the Seven Sisters walk from London. The train from Victoria to Lewes was reasonably busy, with about a third to half the seats taken. The train from Lewes to Seaford was very busy, with at least 80% of the seats taken and some passengers standing. This train only had three carriages though. The train back from Eastbourne was quieter with a third the seats taken. Victoria station at nine in the morning did not look much quieter than normal. It was sunny that Saturday which may have resulted in it being quite busy.
Last weekend I visited my mum in Birmingham. The Avanti West Coast train on Friday afternoon was very quiet up until Coventry where perhaps 20 passengers got on the coach I was in. The journey back late on Sunday afternoon was fairly busy and I would say a third of the seats where taken.
One thing I noticed that on all trips it was generally teenagers and young adults travelling. There were very few older adults.
And would save the railway an absolute fortune on rolling stock that sits around doing nothing between the peaks as well as staff to drive/guard it.
The national timetable could look a lot more like the Avanti timetable - pretty much the same all day from start to finsh of service.
Very long term yes, but you may be talking 5-10 years. In the meantime, more people working from home on a given day means that peak trains will be busier than off-peak trains but not to the same extent as pre-COVID.
However, rolling stock which is being built and/or on order must continue.
Fixed that for you!Let's face it, pre Covid, the rail network was creaking at the seams. A drop of 20% would be beneficial for the running of the network. However the funding shortfall that would create would have to be plugged by thegovernmentlong suffering taxpayer.
However, rolling stock which is being built and/or on order must continue.
Fixed that for you!
MARK
Which isn't true either. Much of the unplanned (and planned) investment and running costs are at the expense of other services that are funded from the public purse. For example, the UK NHS is the poorest funded in Western Europe and social care is desperately underfunded resulting in disasterous impacts, etc.. If something is added to the costs borne by the public purse, none of the other beneficiaries are ring-fenced.Fixed that for you!
MARK
Not the NHS then, or social care, or schools. Public transport might be useful however it sits quite low in terms of people's perception in the UK. Especially if they think they might have to pay a congestion charge or an increased fuel tax.Of all the things the long suffering taxpayer's going to be coughing up for, public transport will be amongst the most useful.
Not the NHS then, or social care, or schools. Public transport might be useful however it sits quite low in terms of people's perception in the UK. Especially if they think they might have to pay a congestion charge or an increased fuel tax.
Not the NHS then, or social care, or schools. Public transport might be useful however it sits quite low in terms of people's perception in the UK. Especially if they think they might have to pay a congestion charge or an increased fuel tax.
Fixed that for you!
MARK
And the train operating companies working under the emergency operating arrangements with the UK and Scottish governments have been reclassified as "Public Non-financial Corporations" by the ONS backdated to 1st April - effectively nationalisation albeit on a temporary basis - the companies are basically contractors operating a government service.Network Rail is nationalised.
A study by scientists from the University of Southampton has examined the chances of catching COVID-19 in a train carriage carrying an infectious person.
Based on high-speed routes in China, researchers from WorldPop found that for train passengers sitting within three rows (widthwise) and five columns (lengthwise) of an infected person (index patient) between zero and ten percent (10.3) caught the disease. The average rate of transmission for these ‘close contact’ travellers was 0.32 percent.
The study, in collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology, and Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, also showed that passengers travelling in seats directly adjacent to an index patient suffered the highest level of transmission, with an average of 3.5 percent contracting the disease. For those sitting on the same row, the figure was 1.5 percent.
The ‘attack rate’ for each seat – the number of passengers in a given seat diagnosed with COVID-19, divided by the total number of passengers travelling in the same seat – increased by 0.15 percent for every hour that a person travelled with an index patient. For those in adjacent seats, this rate of increase was higher at 1.3 percent per hour.
Interestingly, the researchers found that only 0.075 percent of people who used a seat previously occupied by an index patient went on to contract the disease.
Details are published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission in Train Passengers: an Epidemiological and Modeling Study
The transmission risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in train passengers is heterogeneous by co-travel time and seat location, with the highest risacademic.oup.com
The WorldPop team, experts in population mapping, used sophisticated modelling to analyse anonymised itinerary and infection data relating to train passengers on China’s high-speed G train network. This included those who had COVID-19 at the time of travel and their close contacts (who showed symptoms within 14 days of travel). The data, covering a period between 19 December 2019 and 6 March 2020, included 2,334 index patients and 72,093 close contacts. Their travel times ranged from between less than an hour to eight hours.
Lead investigator, Dr Shengjie Lai, comments: “Our study shows that although there is an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission on trains, a person’s seat location and travel time in relation to an infectious person can make a big difference as to whether it is passed on. The findings suggest that during the COVID-19 epidemic it is important to reduce the density of passengers and promote personal hygiene measures, the use of face coverings and possibly carry-out temperature checks before boarding.”
The researchers conclude that given the attack rates estimated for passengers in the same row as an index patient, a safe social distance of more than one metre is required for one hour spent travelling together. After two hours of contact, they consider a distance of less than 2.5 metres may be insufficient to prevent transmission.
Director of WorldPop, Professor Andy Tatem adds: “Our research is the first to quantify the individual risk of COVID-19 transmission on public transport based on data from epidemiological investigations of disease cases and their close contacts on high-speed trains.It shows that the transmission risk not only relates to the distance from an infected person, but also the time in their presence. We hope it can help to inform authorities globally about measures needed to guard against the virus and in-turn help to reduce its spread.”
I cannot give a direct answer to the question posed by this thread but there is an old axiom that says,“What gets measured gets managed”. This report relates specifically on transmission during rail travel, It will probably prompt further studies. Taken from data carried on High Speed Trains in China – there will no doubt be a need for closer to home studies particularly on Commuter Services.
https://www.railbusinessdaily.com/study-reveals-covid-19-transmission-rate-on-trains/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins SWGR as Group Managing Director&utm_content=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins
https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/07/train-transmission.page
The RSSB has started work in this area.
Innovative data methods for passenger safety during the Covid-19 outbreak | RailBusinessDaily
The rail industry has been working hard to attract passengers back to rail. RSSB has been undertaking work in the area of crowd simulation to quantify the risk of infection from Covid-19 per average passenger journey.www.railbusinessdaily.com
I cannot give a direct answer to the question posed by this thread but there is an old axiom that says,“What gets measured gets managed”. This report relates specifically on transmission during rail travel, It will probably prompt further studies. Taken from data carried on High Speed Trains in China – there will no doubt be a need for closer to home studies particularly on Commuter Services.
https://www.railbusinessdaily.com/study-reveals-covid-19-transmission-rate-on-trains/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins SWGR as Group Managing Director&utm_content=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins
https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/07/train-transmission.page
The RSSB has started work in this area.
Innovative data methods for passenger safety during the Covid-19 outbreak | RailBusinessDaily
The rail industry has been working hard to attract passengers back to rail. RSSB has been undertaking work in the area of crowd simulation to quantify the risk of infection from Covid-19 per average passenger journey.www.railbusinessdaily.com
If I'm understanding this correctly, even if you're sat next to someone who is found to have the virus, you still only have a risk in the low persentages of actually catching it - likely less if you're not in the same row/not travelling far/mitigations such as face coverings are in place.