Can we afford another lockdown?

[BJames]

I agree with the above - and just yesterday, the Conservatives voted against regular testing of frontline health workers...

So no regular testing. No functioning app. A poor tracing system. A rethink and redoubling of efforts in track and trace is really needed.

 

[MikeWM]

Government failing to provide properly for people affected by lockdown is not a reason not to do it again if deemed necessary. Dead, ill and potentially permanently disabled people aren't good for the economy.

The government can't continue to throw money around all over the place to replace normal economic activity, as it is normal economic activity that generates that money (and the things that money can purchase) in the first place.

Also see:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ed-britain-from-effective-insolvency-12012369

The government would have struggled to fund itself if the Bank of England had not intervened during the market "meltdown" of COVID-19, the Bank's governor has told Sky News.

In an exclusive interview, Andrew Bailey said that in the early stages of the virus, Britain came within a whisker of not being able to sell its debt - something many would characterise as effective insolvency.

Their solution : quantitative easing, or to give it its old name, printing money. Again. At some point that is going to stop working, as it always does.

 

[Jonny]

I have family who work in hospitals and they have commented that wards have been empty, there has been a record number of empty beds and A&E admissions have been at their lowest in twenty years.

The Nightingale hospitals appear to have been a great idea but where eventually mothballed. Therefore the NHS has been massive ring fenced, but at the expense of people awaiting critical operations/surgery.

My argument would be - is a second lockdown really necessary anyway when we have all the contingencies available this time round.

I do think business leaders would boycout any attempt to have their companies closed down again (this would lead to financial meltdown), people in generally would 'Just Say No!' (like the Grange Hill song), and the police clearly cannot cope with the number of lockdown flouters anyway during this current one.

CJ

France, Italy and Spain barely managed to pull a lockdown off, and they have (each) more than twice the number of police per capita (both by current and 2010 UK police numbers). Like the mask rule, enforcability is going to be a joke due to the lack of personnel.

 

[Bishopstone]

Worth remembering that the bills are still to roll in for the first lockdown, eg:

- Will the rail industry require financial support beyond October, when the private operators are supposed to be getting the keys back? Yes, and ditto buses and TfL etc.

- Will the emergency business loans, guaranteed by taxpayers - Bounce Back, CBILS and CLBILS - be repaid when the first sums become due in month 13? In many cases, no, as the borrower will be bust by then, or shortly thereafter.

- Will the Government stand by as major national arts and cultural institutions fold: theatre, opera, museums etc? Maybe, but I suspect not. Another bailout incoming.

- Will NHS and care staff expect wage increases and bonuses? Yes, and public opinion thinks likewise. With higher salaries comes a higher pension bill, also.

- Having been told they can’t litigate for rent arrears, will the property industry demand and expect some sort of support? Yep, and they’ll probably get it.

- On the revenue side, how is the income tax paid on dividends looking? Whoops, most big divi payers like the banks, oil companies and telcos have cancelled or reduced their distributions.

The numbers we have seen so far, for ‘cost of lockdown’, are just the advance payments.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

- Having been told they can’t litigate for rent arrears, will the property industry demand and expect some sort of support? Yep, and they’ll probably get it.

I think this is the only bit that isn't necessarily guaranteed.

 

[bramling]

France, Italy and Spain barely managed to pull a lockdown off, and they have (each) more than twice the number of police per capita (both by current and 2010 UK police numbers). Like the mask rule, enforcability is going to be a joke due to the lack of personnel.

Ultimately the question is moot as like you say I don’t think the people and business would tolerate it. I wouldn’t, especially another Boris “lockdown-lite”.

In the right circumstances the only thing I might support is if we had a proper and full near shutdown with really only bare essential functions operational, and only for a very time-bound short time, so as to go for total elimination. And again this would only work if there was a robust solution to the possibility of subsequent imported cases, which ultimately there doesn’t seem to be a viable such solution. In reality I don’t trust Boris to deliver such a robust lockdown, so this is also irrelevant as a realistic option.

Britain is now bumbling along and is at the mercy of events. We may be fortunate and the virus behaves in a way which doesn’t strike again, or alternatively we may not. Ultimately that combined with public opinion will determine what happens next; regardless of whether it’s affordable or not. One way or other Boris is not even close to being in control of what happens next.

 

[bramling]

Worth remembering that the bills are still to roll in for the first lockdown, eg:

- Will the rail industry require financial support beyond October, when the private operators are supposed to be getting the keys back? Yes, and ditto buses and TfL etc.

- Will the emergency business loans, guaranteed by taxpayers - Bounce Back, CBILS and CLBILS - be repaid when the first sums become due in month 13? In many cases, no, as the borrower will be bust by then, or shortly thereafter.

- Will the Government stand by as major national arts and cultural institutions fold: theatre, opera, museums etc? Maybe, but I suspect not. Another bailout incoming.

- Will NHS and care staff expect wage increases and bonuses? Yes, and public opinion thinks likewise. With higher salaries comes a higher pension bill, also.

- Having been told they can’t litigate for rent arrears, will the property industry demand and expect some sort of support? Yep, and they’ll probably get it.

- On the revenue side, how is the income tax paid on dividends looking? Whoops, most big divi payers like the banks, oil companies and telcos have cancelled or reduced their distributions.

The numbers we have seen so far, for ‘cost of lockdown’, are just the advance payments.

Excellent post. These are exactly the things which people are going to have to open their eyes to, or are perhaps going to have their eyes forced open.

 

[DB]

Oh, he told us. We were bombarded with it. We were protecting the NHS. It may have been nonsense, but we were told constantly.

Indeed, and now the rhetoric has shifted towards a vague idea of getting rid of the nasty virus. Not going to happen, is it, unless there is a vaccine (which may or may not happen, and if it does it could be quite a while)?

 

[Enthusiast]

One thing I've noticed is that this forum is really full of people who are complaining about others not going to work - this is the sort of zealot thinking that I mean when I say people are well out of touch.

I'm not complaining about others not going to work. They can do what they like - so long as I don't have to pay for it. Quite why the government should be surprised that people flock to the beaches on the hottest day of the year when almost all schoolchildren remain off school and 10m people are off work is a little unclear. Perhaps it is they who are out of touch. For my part, in order to remain in touch I'm looking at the cost to the Exchequer of things like the furlough scheme and the numbers of jobs which are disappearing as well as the damage which is now clearly occurring to people (particularly children) and to the economy as a result of the government's strategy.

Yes most of my post is opinion - as is most of what's posted on this or any other forum. Indeed Covid is not the same disease as the 1968 'flu epidemic. In many respects that disease was worse because it had serious consequences for far more people in the younger age groups than does Covid. But the two are very similar in the way they spread and the numbers they infect. What is totally dissimilar is the way the two were handled. I believe this prolonged lockdown (and the so-called "guidance" which will stifle the reopening of most of the remaining closed businesses next week) will have far reaching consequences into the distant future. I don't recall much in the way of such consequences at all from the 1968 outbreak (although that virus is still evident in many of the 'flu strains today in the same way that Covid will remain in the background for many years to come). There is more to this debate than deaths caused by the virus but it seems one is a "zealot" if you dare to raise them.

This thread seemed mainly intended to be a consideration of whether the UK as a country can afford this - and the answer is a firm yes, still.

You obviously haven't done the same sums that I have. Up to now the government has spent around £300bn. That's just for the last three months or so. That is £4,600 for every man, woman and child in the country. In some of the work I do I encounter many people who have trouble rustling up £100 for a speeding fine. So let's look at it another way. Let's assume that Prof. Fergusson was right and 500,000 people would have died without lockdown and let's be generous and say that was the number the lockdown saved. Each one has cost (up to now) £600,000. "Ah, but you can't put a price on human life". Well you can, actually. At least the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) can. Their guidance suggests that the maximum that should be spent to prolong a patient's life for up to two years is £30,000. So each of the 500,000 lives saved (if indeed that is the figure) has cost 20 times the NICE guidance for spend on "normal" diseases.

The UK clearly cannot continue to haemmorage cash at the current alarming rate. A second lockdown is unthinkable. More than that, when the drains are finally lifted to examine this affair (which will be long after the current actors have left the stage) it will be established that the strategy which involved the first one was a blunder of absolutely epic proportions.

 

[Jonny]

Britain is now bumbling along and is at the mercy of events. We may be fortunate and the virus behaves in a way which doesn’t strike again, or alternatively we may not. Ultimately that combined with public opinion will determine what happens next; regardless of whether it’s affordable or not. One way or other Boris is not even close to being in control of what happens next.

Which brings me to this little gem that I spotted on a human-run summary website, and this is one of the professionals speaking:

May 31, 2020 / 6:44 PM
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
(article continues)

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

And this was a few days before lockdown-lite evolved into a curfew (in England at least).

 

[bramling]

Which brings me to this little gem that I spotted on a human-run summary website, and this is one of the professionals speaking:
And this was a few days before lockdown-lite evolved into a curfew (in England at least).

Perhaps the only note of caution with that could be whether this weakening is due to warmer weather?

 

[Jonny]

Perhaps the only note of caution with that could be whether this weakening is due to warmer weather?

Possibly, but viruses - especially newer ones - tend to mutate, and in the present circumstances one that can go un-noticed has an advantage. The mutation comes with a trade-off of lower virulence, so that it doesn't cause the same amount of harm either. Also the novel coronavirus has a very large genome by virus standards (38,000 base pairs, give or take) so a few mutations may be able to do a lot of damage. In fact, most mutations are loss-of-function anyway.

 

[adc82140]

Perhaps the only note of caution with that could be whether this weakening is due to warmer weather?

It's rather warm in Florida, and cases are certainly not falling away there.

 

[MikeWM]

The UK clearly cannot continue to haemmorage cash at the current alarming rate. A second lockdown is unthinkable. More than that, when the drains are finally lifted to examine this affair (which will be long after the current actors have left the stage) it will be established that the strategy which involved the first one was a blunder of absolutely epic proportions.

Probably the worst domestic policy decision in centuries.

GDP is a problematic measure in many respects, but it has some uses. How anyone can look at this graph and not think we are facing the most serious economic crisis of our lifetimes is beyond me. Compare the dip corresponding to the 'economic crisis' of 2008-2009, and how many years of pain we had to try to recover from that.

 

[bramling]

Probably the worst domestic policy decision in centuries.

GDP is a problematic measure in many respects, but it has some uses. How anyone can look at this graph and not think we are facing the most serious economic crisis of our lifetimes is beyond me. Compare the dip corresponding to the 'economic crisis' of 2008-2009, and how many years of pain we had to try to recover from that.

View attachment 79999

There is one very slight crumb of hope, which is that *if* the C19 issue is somehow sorted quickly, there is still the potential for a return to normality as the trigger issue is gone, especially if it's sorted in a way where confidence is high that we can return to normal life.

One of the commentators on Sky's press preview last night made what I see as a good point, which is that as a country we seem to have a very strange outlook on all this at present, being more focussed on pubs and holidays than work and education. I do think furlough has blinkered some people's judgement - ultimately another lockdown would also give rise to more disruption to the development of this generation of children, and that is an unquantifiable cost we *really* cannot afford (IMO).

Another thing is ultimately the NHS needs to return to "business as usual". I write this having just seen on social media *another* death from my extended workplace, all non-Covid related. There do seem to be a lot of non-Covid excess deaths at present, and this is something the government needs to get hold of quickly. I can think of four in the last month, and none of these would have been people I would be expecting to pass away.

 

[43066]

You obviously haven't done the same sums that I have. Up to now the government has spent around £300bn. That's just for the last three months or so. That is £4,600 for every man, woman and child in the country. In some of the work I do I encounter many people who have trouble rustling up £100 for a speeding fine. So let's look at it another way. Let's assume that Prof. Fergusson was right and 500,000 people would have died without lockdown and let's be generous and say that was the number the lockdown saved. Each one has cost (up to now) £600,000. "Ah, but you can't put a price on human life". Well you can, actually. At least the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) can. Their guidance suggests that the maximum that should be spent to prolong a patient's life for up to two years is £30,000. So each of the 500,000 lives saved (if indeed that is the figure) has cost 20 times the NICE guidance for spend on "normal" diseases.

The UK clearly cannot continue to haemmorage cash at the current alarming rate. A second lockdown is unthinkable. More than that, when the drains are finally lifted to examine this affair (which will be long after the current actors have left the stage) it will be established that the strategy which involved the first one was a blunder of absolutely epic proportions.

Well, that certainly puts things into perspective. Utterly terrifying figures. I wonder how many future generations are going to be saddled with paying that back.

 

[MikeWM]

Or how about this one, of people newly claiming employment benefits in the UK? And this is *with* the furlough scheme; many more will lose their job as this unwinds. The scale on the right is in thousands. Compare the economic crisis again of 2008-2009; alternatively look at the unemployment crisis of the early 80s and all the problems that caused (poverty, riots...)

 

[43066]

which is that as a country we seem to have a very strange outlook on all this at present, being more focussed on pubs and holidays than work and education.

Agreed (not that I’m complaining about the prospect of pubs and restaurants reopening!). Pushing hard to open schools would risk a war with the teaching unions, and would alienate many parents who have been terrified by the government’s earlier “stay home to stay safe” messaging

I’m convinced the focus on hospitality is entirely down to the PM wanting to do something he thinks will make him more popular. As somebody noted earlier (either on this thread or another) the Covid situation is being treated much more as a political football than a genuine national crisis.

 

[MikeWM]

There is one very slight crumb of hope, which is that *if* the C19 issue is somehow sorted quickly, there is still the potential for a return to normality as the trigger issue is gone, especially if it's sorted in a way where confidence is high that we can return to normal life.

I think things will improve somewhat in GDP terms in fairly short order, but there are so many inherent drags that have been created that will delay returning to anything like 'normal'. Many people are or soon will be unemployed, and I don't see many now jobs being created in the short term that will be available to them. Those who still are employed will be looking far more carefully at their expenditure. Those businesses that survive will also be looking at reigning in their expenditure, with all the knock-on effects on other businesses. Few will want to create new small businesses; those that still do will find it very hard to get investment.

Another thing is ultimately the NHS needs to return to "business as usual". I write this having just seen on social media *another* death from my extended workplace, all non-Covid related. There do seem to be a lot of non-Covid excess deaths at present, and this is something the government needs to get hold of quickly. I can think of four in the last month, and none of these would have been people I would be expecting to pass away.

This is one thing that surprised me. I didn't expect the NHS to effectively give up on so many regular and preventative treatments over the last few months.

The result is that we can't even judge how bad covid was or wasn't by the normal standard of excess deaths, as a lot of people who shouldn't be dying of other things are also doing so. I seem to recall preventing that from happening was one of the main ideas behind of lockdown. So we've failed at that too.

 

[Domh245]

There is one very slight crumb of hope, which is that *if* the C19 issue is somehow sorted quickly, there is still the potential for a return to normality as the trigger issue is gone, especially if it's sorted in a way where confidence is high that we can return to normal life.

Like you say, with the trigger issue gone, there is certainly scope for a quick(er) rebound. My real concern is that the tangerine-in-chief seems to be making such a meal of the pandemic in the US that they could well suffer from a lot of issues into the future, particularly as the support packages over there seem to have been less generous than over here. If the US economy suffers, the world will feel it

 

[43066]

My real concern is that the tangerine-in-chief

I was about to ask whether you meant our one or their one!

 

[bramling]

Like you say, with the trigger issue gone, there is certainly scope for a quick(er) rebound. My real concern is that the tangerine-in-chief seems to be making such a meal of the pandemic in the US that they could well suffer from a lot of issues into the future, particularly as the support packages over there seem to have been less generous than over here. If the US economy suffers, the world will feel it

Yes there is of course the old saying "When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold". Whether this is as relevant as it was a decade or two ago is open to interpretation, however I don't think it's in doubt that America's handling of C19 makes ours look good in comparison.

 

[Reliablebeam]

A point that occurred to me today when discussing this with a colleague - even barring any financial considerations, 'Rona Lockdown Mk2 is probably unfeasible if our 'peer' countries - i.e. western Europe, don't pursue this avenue. A Christmas lockdown would be total poison for the government which attempts it, which would be made worse if people are treated to news from, say, France of reasonably normal life... I think from reading the news a few have already said they won't be going down this rabbit hole again!

 

[43066]

Yes there is of course the old saying "When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold". Whether this is as relevant as it was a decade or two ago is open to interpretation, however I don't think it's in doubt that America's handling of C19 makes ours look good in comparison.

In this case that saying applies to China, almost literally!

 

[bramling]

In this case that saying applies to China, almost literally!

The bitter irony being that China looks set to emerge from the whole thing comparatively unscathed, whilst America and Europe burn. One could certainly be forgiven for wondering whether it was deliberate...

 

[6Gman]

Higher, because even reduced trade is better than zero trade? Is this a trick question?

Actually, reduced trade with staff to pay could be worse than zero trade with staff furloughed.

 

[yorkie]

Have you taken into account the increasing amount of evidence that not all people exposed to the virus produce antibodies, but use other mechanisms of the immune system to fight it off? The proportion who test positive for antibodies are the minimum number of people who have been exposed; the actual number could well be considerably higher.

Indeed, such as T-cells; if anyone hasn't seen it already, this thread has some useful links:

We have more immunity to SARS-CoV-2 than thought

Firstly, a lot of people appear to think that anyone who does not have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies has no immunity against the virus; this is false. Anyone who has been exposed to other coronaviruses (some of which are deemed to be "common cold" viruses, though not all "common cold" viruses are...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[DannyMich2018]

We of course dont want another lockdown. Many businesses seem to be "milking " the Furlough system however while it's still paying out 80 percent. In my town we have 2 out of 3 Greggs, both Costas, a Burger King, most charity shops and a few other non essential shops which have still not opened. I understand not all can open at once. The Furlough system should after the 4th July be ONLY for the businesses which CANNOT trade yet such as nail bars, gyms etc not ones which can trade.

 

[philosopher]

A point that occurred to me today when discussing this with a colleague - even barring any financial considerations, 'Rona Lockdown Mk2 is probably unfeasible if our 'peer' countries - i.e. western Europe, don't pursue this avenue. A Christmas lockdown would be total poison for the government which attempts it, which would be made worse if people are treated to news from, say, France of reasonably normal life... I think from reading the news a few have already said they won't be going down this rabbit hole again!

I know the Irish and French governments have said they are not going to do another lockdown. I think the Italian governments may have said the same thing.

On the other hand, I have noticed some of the NHS test and track adverts saying ’Don’t risk another lockdown‘, but this could be however an empty threat to increase compliance with contact tracing.

 

[Scrotnig]

We of course dont want another lockdown. Many businesses seem to be "milking " the Furlough system however while it's still paying out 80 percent. In my town we have 2 out of 3 Greggs, both Costas, a Burger King, most charity shops and a few other non essential shops which have still not opened. I understand not all can open at once. The Furlough system should after the 4th July be ONLY for the businesses which CANNOT trade yet such as nail bars, gyms etc not ones which can trade.

I agree with the principle, however the issue is that those business that have opened are mostly trading way below normal levels. So if furlough is not available to them for at least some of their staff, those staff will be made redundant immediately.