As someone who works over this route, I will try and provide some background to the operational side of this particular service.
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Services to and from Cosham can only do 20mph across junction, so services on the main line from Havant get priority in order to make PPM.
As you can understand, it is a varied route with a number of points of potential conflict if services are not running exactly to time. For example, Cross Country, Great Western, Southern and South West Trains all run class one trains over parts of the route, so who deserves priority when services are delayed?
I hope that this provides an interesting insight of the characteristics of this particular route.
Regards.
RA.
Let's not forget the evening Brighton services which are usually doomed from the moment they enter the Coastway area.
Let's look at this one then, this is only guesswork based off RTT workings & personal experience of using the route.
1O98, the inward working to Brighton follows 1Y25, the 1426 Southern service to Brighton via Eastleigh
This train is due to depart Fareham at 1456
1O98 is due to arrive Fareham at 1458
Assuming both trains run on time (1O98 now being right behind 1Y25) and taking into account the issues in the Avon valley & beyond as discussed by
Right Away, then all will be well until we hit Havant.
1Y25 should depart Havant at 1509
1O98 should depart at 1515
but then 2S68, the 1459 Portsmouth & Southsea to Littlehampton is due to arrive at 15:17
Great, another possibly-delayed-Southern-service for 1O98 to get trapped behind.
Now at Worthing, 1O98 overtakes 1Y25, assuming they are both running to time.
1Y25 arrives Worthing at 1551, and should depart at 1559
1O98 arrives Worthing at 1554, should depart at 1555.
Now at Hove, 2E82, the 1539 West Worthing to Brighton is added into the mix of possible things to go wrong.
2E82 departs at 1604,
1O98 arr 1607 dep at 1608
There's somewhere for it to go wrong once again, though admittedly at this point it can't do much damage.
Let's now look at the RETURN WORKING, 1V96, the 1702 Brighton to Bristol Temple Meads.
Immediately upon leaving Brighton at 1702, 1V96 will be followed by 2N25, the 1705 Brighton to Portsmouth Harbour (stopper).
If that's delayed, 1V96 will already lose time until such point as a path exists for an overtake (unlikely during the peak period!) and will be around 10-12 minutes late by the time it reaches Havant.
If all goes well, we move on.
Now at Worthing, 1V96 is expected to leave at 1722, but right in front of it is 2E97, the 1651 Southern service from Brighton to Bognor Regis via Littlehampton.
This train is expected to depart at 1719
1V96 will now follow this to Arundel Junction.
Back to Havant again.
1C32, the 1606 London Victoria to Portsmouth Harbour is expected to depart Havant at 1754
1V96 arrives Havant at 1757 for a 1758 departure.
Then add in the problems West of Havant as described earlier...