I suspect despite the disability regulations/toilet tank issues with the Mk IIIs, extensions will be granted until the HST2 is fully introduced, out of necessity. Of course it's possible that FGW (or their successors) will introduce new trains, depending on whether the GWML is electrified or not, but if not, I reckon it's doubtful given the investment put into the MTU programme and Mk III refurbs, and the fact that HST2 is on the horizon (just about!)
Mechanically, I reckon there is very little in the reengineered power cars which is actually "old"! Others will know more than me...
But would others agree it's fair to say the HST2 being in place is a pre-requisite for HST1 being withdrawn? If we use the development of the HST as a model for that of HST2, we get an idea of timelines for this to occur:
If you cast your mind back to the development of the HST, the idea was born in the late 1960s, the first prototype power cars authorised in 1970 and built by 1972. The first production HSTs entered service on the GWML in the second half of 1976 and production ceased only in 1982.
Obviously there are many differences between then and now; maybe the trail of red tape would be some years longer now, given the private contracting procedure, though on the other hand 125mph running is not a new phenomenon as it was then and won't require the same investment and testing.
That puts us at around the equivalent of 1968 or 1969 I reckon, the first prototype HST2 PCs don't seem likely to be built anytime in the next couple of years. By this "logic" the first HST2 won't be introduced in service until maybe 2015-16 at the earliest, and maybe 2020 before they've all been built. Obviously these dates are subjective.
So IMHO the HST won't even start to be withdrawn until well after 2015, let alone scrapped. Odd examples like displaced GC HSTs or XC HSTs would probably be re-engineered if required and absorbed into the EC or GW pools to bolster existing fleets.
My guess for the first scrapping would therefore be 10 years from now.
Any thoughts??
Gawd I hope you never come into running a company. Scrapping a HST because of paint? And keeping a company because of paint? Naaa.
