Class 701 'Aventra' trains for South Western Railway: progress updates

[NSEWonderer]

Just passed not long ago:
5Q20 - 701028
5Q30 - 701025

Both on training I believe.

 

[class701]

Something else to consider with the now comedic 701 roll-out, is that SWR have slashed virtually 50% of their services on some routes (mine). Down from 4ph to just 2ph throughout the day and evening. There can be a 40-minute wait at Worcester Park for a train that used to run every 15 minutes and ran like clockwork under the former SWT. It could be relied upon. Where did all those drivers go? SWR claim thay cannot reinstate services to pre-pandemic levels because there is not enough room on the network, plus the DfT won't allow it. This is nonsense. The service we have on the Epsom to Worcester Park line is appalling and far slower into London now than during the steam age. Trains barely get above 10-20mph until after Wimbledon. That is not down to the late 701 roll-out, but SWR themselves not being willing or able to run a decent railway service.

 

[Nogoohwell]

One issue impacting staff availability is overtime.
Now that the pay deal has been approved, with the back pay owed, there is little need for staff to volunteer to cover overtime.
Heard it mentioned a few times now that less staff are coming forward to work overtime.
If you based your forecast on historical figures, then unless this happens every year in November, your forecast would be wrong.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Well there are effectively three areas of interest in this problem. You need to provide sufficient crew to cover all the existing services which aren't 701 operated, sufficient crew to cover the new services which are, and then provide a steady release of staff for training purposes.

SWR should know what their attendance at each depot is likely to be at different weeks of the year based on the historical data and they should know what number of crew who at each depot are likely to be 701 competent for each day.

If they can't forecast how many crew they will need to with a reasonable margin of error to account for issues like setbacks to training to the point that diagrams are being uncovered on a daily basis, that suggests that the people in charge of the training program don't know what they're doing!

Staff sickness perhaps.
I cannot recall accurately the same time last year but I am getting one lurgy after another - nothing to keep me home but then I usually cope better than colleagues. Also a high proportion of my extended family are currently suffering as bad as they do.

 

[Goldfish62]

Staff sickness perhaps.
I cannot recall accurately the same time last year but I am getting one lurgy after another - nothing to keep me home but then I usually cope better than colleagues. Also a high proportion of my extended family are currently suffering as bad as they do.

There's a lot of it about. I'm just recovering from the worst cold I've had for years. Normally I can function and still go to work, but I was laid up for a couple of days this time.

 

[Elorith]

If you based your forecast on historical figures, then unless this happens every year in November, your forecast would be wrong.

Correct, but if you know what the effect of the pay deal has been so far, you can make hierarchical statistical adjustments to the historical data to account for it.

Staff sickness perhaps.
I cannot recall accurately the same time last year but I am getting one lurgy after another - nothing to keep me home but then I usually cope better than colleagues. Also a high proportion of my extended family are currently suffering as bad as they do.

It could be that sickness is significantly worse this year than on average. But the real power of a proper forecasting tool is that you can generate a distribution of the range of plausible outcomes as opposed to a single "point estimate", taking into account each source of uncertainty by itself. Sickness is something that you would presumably consider as one source of uncertainty.

 

[Bigfoot]

One issue impacting staff availability is overtime.
Now that the pay deal has been approved, with the back pay owed, there is little need for staff to volunteer to cover overtime.

Looking at the daily sheets there are still around 4-6 people out of around 70 making themselves available for overtime each day. There are approximately another 35 on duty. Then add in holidays, sickness and rest days required by law. There aren't many left to offer their services for overtime.

There are also a significant proportion of people who have no desire or need to work overtime too. It's bad enough having enforced overtime written into your contract let alone working extra days if you're not that way inclined. It's called overtime for a reason.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Something else to consider with the now comedic 701 roll-out, is that SWR have slashed virtually 50% of their services on some routes (mine). Down from 4ph to just 2ph throughout the day and evening. There can be a 40-minute wait at Worcester Park for a train that used to run every 15 minutes and ran like clockwork under the former SWT. It could be relied upon. Where did all those drivers go? SWR claim thay cannot reinstate services to pre-pandemic levels because there is not enough room on the network, plus the DfT won't allow it. This is nonsense. The service we have on the Epsom to Worcester Park line is appalling and far slower into London now than during the steam age. Trains barely get above 10-20mph until after Wimbledon. That is not down to the late 701 roll-out, but SWR themselves not being willing or able to run a decent railway service.

Passenger counts on that line are c60% pre covid but stats are way stale now and we should have an update come December to have a better reference. So i wonder what dataset DfT use to drive train service provision now or do they leave it to the operator? SE for example are increasing Metro service levels in Dec but doubt they are experiencing much difference to SW in usage

 

[swr444]

Passenger counts on that line are c60% pre covid but stats are way stale now and we should have an update come December to have a better reference. So i wonder what dataset DfT use to drive train service provision now or do they leave it to the operator? SE for example are increasing Metro service levels in Dec but doubt they are experiencing much difference to SW in usage

Nothing will change until 701s are covering all suburban services I believe. There’s simply no slack in the available stock at all

 

[Bald Rick]

So i wonder what dataset DfT use to drive train service provision now or do they leave it to the operator?

Always with the operator.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

but doubt they are experiencing much difference to SW in usage

SWR is one of the worst affected by COVID. A large portion of their pre-covid passengers never returned and probably won't. Hence the cutbacks.
There's a number of reasons as to why, some suggest it's because of the type of jobs people have in the area the operator serves, many now being work from home.

 

[norbitonflyer]

This weekend sees the first 701s in service, working rugby specials

11:10 WAT-HOU 1R07
12:40 WAT-HOU 1R19
14:10 WAT-HOU 1R31

unsure if there are any others

those workings back to 2x455 today

 

[43096]

SWR is one of the worst affected by COVID. A large portion of their pre-covid passengers never returned and probably won't. Hence the cutbacks.
There's a number of reasons as to why, some suggest it's because of the type of jobs people have in the area the operator serves, many now being work from home.

The service provided by SWR is a big disincentive to this daily commuter going back to travelling into London every day.

 

[Lockwood]

Chicken and egg scenario?

 

[class701]

The reason SWR is achieving far lower passenger numbers atm over other TOCs is because they are running up to 60% less services on some lines. If you run a train every 10-15 minutes then the passengers will return. The Elizabeth line opening has proved this. If you want people to use and pay for your service, then simply provide a service that can be relied upon. SWR has chosen to do the opposite with obvious and disasterous results on passenger numbers. The Epsom line has nearly 60% fewer trains and seats since 2020. Ten-car trains are now eight-car, plus the former 15-minute frequency is now 30-minutes. What did they expect would happen. It's not rocket science.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

The reason SWR is achieving far lower passenger numbers atm over other TOCs is because they are running up to 60% less services on some lines. If you run a train every 10-15 minutes then the passengers will return. The Elizabeth line opening has proved this. If you want people to use and pay for your service, then simply provide a service that can be relied upon. SWR has chosen to do the opposite with obvious and disasterous results on passenger numbers. The Epsom line has nearly 60% fewer trains and seats since 2020. Ten-car trains are now eight-car, plus the former 15-minute frequency is now 30-minutes. What did they expect would happen. It's not rocket science.

Very true.

I live in Epsom and even though the Southern service has also been reduced with the loss of 50% of the Victoria services, it's still 4 per hour ( 2 each London Bridge and Victoria ) which is also evenly spread out plus there are good Thameslink connections at both Sutton and London Bridge; quite a few people who used to go via Wimbledon are now regularly going via Sutton. Myself included...

 

[Snow1964]

SWR is one of the worst affected by COVID. A large portion of their pre-covid passengers never returned and probably won't. Hence the cutbacks.
There's a number of reasons as to why, some suggest it's because of the type of jobs people have in the area the operator serves, many now being work from home.

I think that is might have been true last year but is now bit of urban myth. Whilst true many of its users got to work at home, there is evidence that companies have been mandating minimum 3 days in office in rent months, with mAmorite expecting it from January.

However there are lines where SWR has halved frequency and shortened trains, so doing their best to discourage people from returning. If other Operators are now busy then rather looks like SWR are the outlier, by not restoring services.

 

[Class450/4DES]

I think that is might have been true last year but is now bit of urban myth. Whilst true many of its users got to work at home, there is evidence that companies have been mandating minimum 3 days in office in rent months, with mAmorite expecting it from January.

However there are lines where SWR has halved frequency and shortened trains, so doing their best to discourage people from returning. If other Operators are now busy then rather looks like SWR are the outlier, by not restoring services.

They probably used Covid as an excuse to hide the fact about the Class 701 problems. When the Class 701's do fully roll out, I am guessing by 2124, it should go back to a normal pre-covid timetable. As I have seen trains PACKED on SWR.

 

[London Trains]

The reason SWR is achieving far lower passenger numbers atm over other TOCs is because they are running up to 60% less services on some lines. If you run a train every 10-15 minutes then the passengers will return. The Elizabeth line opening has proved this. If you want people to use and pay for your service, then simply provide a service that can be relied upon. SWR has chosen to do the opposite with obvious and disasterous results on passenger numbers. The Epsom line has nearly 60% fewer trains and seats since 2020. Ten-car trains are now eight-car, plus the former 15-minute frequency is now 30-minutes. What did they expect would happen. It's not rocket science.

Well said.

 

[DMckduck]

The reason SWR is achieving far lower passenger numbers atm over other TOCs is because they are running up to 60% less services on some lines. If you run a train every 10-15 minutes then the passengers will return. The Elizabeth line opening has proved this. If you want people to use and pay for your service, then simply provide a service that can be relied upon. SWR has chosen to do the opposite with obvious and disasterous results on passenger numbers. The Epsom line has nearly 60% fewer trains and seats since 2020. Ten-car trains are now eight-car, plus the former 15-minute frequency is now 30-minutes. What did they expect would happen. It's not rocket science.

SWR simply do not have the crew required to return back to pre covid timetables, guards dropping hours to 37 when it was previously 42 has resulted in diagrams between tightened to maximum efficiency possible (The reason why when something goes wrong it spirals very quickly).

To return back to pre covid levels would require a massive drive in crew recruitment.

 

[Peter Sarf]

SWR simply do not have the crew required to return back to pre covid timetables, guards dropping hours to 37 when it was previously 42 has resulted in diagrams between tightened to maximum efficiency possible (The reason why when something goes wrong it spirals very quickly).

To return back to pre covid levels would require a massive drive in crew recruitment.

Or use 701s without guards - as was the original plan.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Or use 701s without guards - as was the original plan.

Cue the 30 days of strike action

 

[DMckduck]

Or use 701s without guards - as was the original plan.

That horse bolted ages ago, the size of the carrot you would have to dangle to the drivers to get rid of guards would not get signed off by the treasury (any payrise is basically worth half due to tax/ni deductions).

Before you mention imposing terms aswell, that simply is not a good idea considering industry relations have just been hard reset.

Plus last I checked, every single mainline station has failed DCO sign off and the Windsor side isn't much better.

So without guards, these trains still wouldn't be in service right now.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Cue the 30 days of strike action

+

That horse bolted ages ago, the size of the carrot you would have to dangle to the drivers to get rid of guards would not get signed off by the treasury (any payrise is basically worth half due to tax/ni deductions).

Before you mention imposing terms aswell, that simply is not a good idea considering industry relations have just been hard reset.

Plus last I checked, every single mainline station has failed DCO sign off and the Windsor side isn't much better.

So without guards, these trains still wouldn't be in service right now.

I know.

It is just so ironic that here we are with a shortage of the staff SWR thought they got do without.

But it does beggar belief that SWR is so far behind the curve compared to other TOCs on this thorny subject.

 

[moley]

I’m in the exact situation. Used to be in the office 5 days per week. It’s now 1. I choose my day to avoid Tues-Thurs. I might not ever go back to 5 days per week, but the thing stopping me going 3 days a week is the awful service. It’s not about the money or time, it’s about not being able to physically board a train home at 7pm due to constant short formations.

 

[TEW]

+

I know.

It is just so ironic that here we are with a shortage of the staff SWR thought they got do without.

But it does beggar belief that SWR is so far behind the curve compared to other TOCs on this thorny subject.

The shortage largely isn't guards though, it's drivers. The now more frequent cancellations due to shortages of crew is drivers.

 

[meld3]

The shortage largely isn't guards though, it's drivers. The now more frequent cancellations due to shortages of crew is drivers.

Its almost like they are now too expensive to employ......

 

[Snow1964]

The reason SWR is achieving far lower passenger numbers atm over other TOCs is because they are running up to 60% less services on some lines. If you run a train every 10-15 minutes then the passengers will return. The Elizabeth line opening has proved this. If you want people to use and pay for your service, then simply provide a service that can be relied upon. SWR has chosen to do the opposite with obvious and disasterous results on passenger numbers. The Epsom line has nearly 60% fewer trains and seats since 2020. Ten-car trains are now eight-car, plus the former 15-minute frequency is now 30-minutes. What did they expect would happen. It's not rocket science.

We will know for sure if this theory can be backed by stats in 10 days time (when ORR are due to publish both annual station usage, and annual regional usage stats, 21st November).

A comparison to 2019 (pre covid), or 2016 (last full year of SWT, rather than current shrinking SWR) will give real hard numbers of the change. (will need to look up ORR data tables as ORR only show quick comparison to year before).

If it is obvious some other operators are back to near 100% pre covid (or even over 100%), but SWR is sEric usly lagging because of its bungled 701 introduction and associated service cuts then it will be obvious just how much damage the faulty 701s and drivers & guards that were supposed to work them from 5 years ago have caused. (Introduction to service was a few by Oct 2019, a third by March 2020 when covid hit, and all by Dec 2020). Even allowing 18 months for covid doesn't explain how SWR have wasted other 4 years.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Looks like one of the 701s has a poppy on it. Didn’t get the unit number

 

[GW43125]

Shepperton diagram cancelled this morning due to unit failure.

Also seems to be an extra 455 diagram out on Readings today...