Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[Nicholas Lewis]

I accept it is a big consolation that the Handsacre Link is not being scrapped. However the flows feeding in/out of it to the WCML, together with the expected expansion of freight Felixstowe -Nuneaton (partially augmented by the Ely Junction Upgrade), will surely make Handsacre Jcn -Colwich -2track Shugborough -Stafford North a mother of bottlenecks on an international scale, taking account the interweaving from line to line and the linespeed differentials involved? Apologies for the cliche.

Hopefully various industry stakeholders will support the case for funded enhancement at Colwich/Shugborough to offset the consequential longterm loss of future capacity and inherent delays, if not the most of HS2 2a. The Greengauge 'HS2 Curtailed' article is a start.

How many extra trains will be imposed on this section vs what already travel that way?

We had years of Digswell viaduct not being suitable for anymore traffic yet more traffic was added. Conversely its a relatively short section to quadruple so would seem an appropriate recipient of the phase 2 "windfall".

 

[21C101]

How many extra trains will be imposed on this section vs what already travel that way?

We had years of Digswell viaduct not being suitable for anymore traffic yet more traffic was added. Conversely its a relatively short section to quadruple so would seem an appropriate recipient of the phase 2 "windfall".

All the Intercity (Avanti) services that currently run up the Trent Valley bar one or two will get replaced like for like with HS2 services that end up on the Trent Valley at Rugely.

Many of the freed up slots south of Lichfield from the intercities being transferred to HS2 will be replaced by new services calling at Watford, MK, Rugby (and Northampton in some cases) that will end up on the Trent Valley at Rugely.

Then run out of four track railway at a non grade separated junction at Colwich with all sorts of conflicting moves.

A bit like if the Midland Mainline was diverted onto a new alignment from Bedford to run to Kings Cross and joined the East Coast Main Line north of Welwyn.

 

[21C101]

"four-tracking through Shugborough....would be very environmentally destructive (National Trust estate, edge of Cannock Chase, local villages). Anti-HS2 campaigners have always said they're not opposed to rail improvements in principal, just HS2 as the 'wrong scheme'..

It wouid be quite funny to announce four tracking Shugborough by opening up the tunnel into a cutting and watching them all bounce up and down with outrage.

Come to think of it, it would be a good way of stopping them from sitting down in roads in London blocking them, if they were all camping and digging rabbit warrens up there...

 

[Peter Wilde]

The machinery of government operates with checks and balances, intended to ensure proper expenditure of public money, put in place by none other than politicians.

The Permanent Secretary of each government department, in his role of principle accounting officer, is obliged to give an annual report on expenditure to Parliament.

If you really believe that HMT and DfT will, or indeed legally can, permit your "smaller projects under localised control" to evade all of that..... the NAO would be all over it. Let's just say that it isn't going to happen.

I would suggest the central problem in this entire HS2 mess arose thus:

1. Politicians looked for a huge new shiny project to make their name/win votes/etc. However they were aware their bright idea would never be approved if it sounded hugely expensive;

2. Therefore at the scoping stage there was huge pressure on everyone to maximise apparent economic benefits and make the project world-class, state of the art, etc; while also minimising the estimated budget; avoiding any realistic discussion of likely opposition (either NIMBYism or really valid); and thus minimising the estimated costs of mitigation of objector concerns (more tunnelling, prettified engineering, etc);

3. This resulted in highly unrealistic and over-optimistic estimates of the overall cost;

4. Hence when work was approved and construction got underway, costs soared away from the estimated ones;

5. Ministers then got more and more worried and started trying to modify and rescope the project .. meaning yet further costs and for a worse and worse outcome.

On that analysis, the underlying problem was not the technical expertise behind the project, but is inherent in the short-termism and unrealities of the political process in the UK. How could that be put right?

It would be worth making a detailed study of how HS1 was scoped and managed in comparison with the HS2 fiasco. It may well be that by the time HS1 was designed, it was obvious that constructing it was unavoidable (to gain full benefit from the Channel Tunnel - and to avoid the UK looking stupid in comparison with France ..!); and the type of line required, and the train services to use it were in no doubt. This then enabled the project being realistically designed and costed, neither under nor over-specified; thus enabling its construction to come in on time and on budget.

 

[JKF]

I’m not sure how Manchester to Bradford will be able to be undertaken in 30 mins, or Bradford to Huddersfield in 12 mins, but I imagine they aren’t either.

There will be a study and in 3 years time they’ll announce it isn’t possible (unless they built a line in an exact straight line)

Shame with all these plans announced they didn’t announce extra capacity for either Manchester Piccadilly or Leeds stations

They’ll build a maglev shuttle to Leeds Bradford Airport so you can get in your helicopter and fly to Manchester in ten minutes. Easy.

 

[Magdalia]

We had years of Digswell viaduct not being suitable for anymore traffic yet more traffic was added. Conversely its a relatively short section to quadruple so would seem an appropriate recipient of the phase 2 "windfall".

Too difficult. The two track section has a listed viaduct nearly 500m long and 30m high, plus 2 tunnels.

It wouldn't be possible to utilise much of any additional capacity because of lack of platforms at Kings Cross.

A bit more capacity can still be squeezed in by banning short trains and closing Welwyn North station.

And have you name checked the local MP?

 

[21C101]

Too difficult. The two track section has a listed viaduct nearly 500m long and 30m high, plus 2 tunnels.

It wouldn't be possible to utilise much of any additional capacity because of lack of platforms at Kings Cross.

A bit more capacity can still be squeezed in by banning short trains and closing Welwyn North station.

And have you name checked the local MP?

However does St Pancras (Midland bit) cope with 6 long distance trains an hour from four platforms?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I would suggest the central problem in this entire HS2 mess arose thus:

1. Politicians looked for a huge new shiny project to make their name/win votes/etc. However they were aware their bright idea would never be approved if it sounded hugely expensive;

It started under Labour and coalition continued with it but already by 2013 costs had doubled but that was stated at the time the result of a nailed down scope and dealing with the issues you list below so this should have been a realistic cost

2. Therefore at the scoping stage there was huge pressure on everyone to maximise apparent economic benefits and make the project world-class, state of the art, etc; while also minimising the estimated budget; avoiding any realistic discussion of likely opposition (either NIMBYism or really valid); and thus minimising the estimated costs of mitigation of objector concerns (more tunnelling, prettified engineering, etc);

3. This resulted in highly unrealistic and over-optimistic estimates of the overall cost;

Dont agree as estimates continued to creep up through mid 2010's despite scope not changing

4. Hence when work was approved and construction got underway, costs soared away from the estimated ones;

Have they though? HS2 are too secretive and fail to disclose what the causes are. NAO, public accounts committee go looking but only have access to data that HS2 what to give them and like CrossRail hide the truth this is the fundamental issue

5. Ministers then got more and more worried and started trying to modify and rescope the project .. meaning yet further costs and for a worse and worse outcome.

Yes but not on phase 1 and not helping the case for phase 2

On that analysis, the underlying problem was not the technical expertise behind the project, but is inherent in the short-termism and unrealities of the political process in the UK. How could that be put right?

It would be worth making a detailed study of how HS1 was scoped and managed in comparison with the HS2 fiasco. It may well be that by the time HS1 was designed, it was obvious that constructing it was unavoidable (to gain full benefit from the Channel Tunnel - and to avoid the UK looking stupid in comparison with France ..!); and the type of line required, and the train services to use it were in no doubt. This then enabled the project being realistically designed and costed, neither under nor over-specified; thus enabling its construction to come in on time and on budget.

The question is why didnt HS2 emulate the success of HS1? Answer I would suggest is because LCR and many of its partners had a financial stake in the project from the outset and whilst indirectly financed by govt it still left that private sector focus. Oh and dont forget this was all executed under a Labour govt.

 

[TheBigD]

However does St Pancras (Midland bit) cope with 6 long distance trains an hour from four platforms?

Generally...

The 2 Corby services each hour use platform 1, with the 4 Sheffield/Nottingham services using the other 3, with some short turnarounds (eg 1254 ex Notts forms the 1305 to Notts), and some double use of platforms (eg 0835 ex Notts forms the 0902 to Sheffield and the 0905 to Notts).

When Thameslink divert in to St Pancras the EMR service is reduced to 3tph, with 4 tph for Thameslink (on sub 10 minute turnarounds).

 

[Arkeeos]

We are still in the "sinking in" stage, the real anger is probably yet to come.

When the government does a preliminary business case of their "NPR" proposals, and finds a BCR of sub 1.2 and scraps it, I think there will be huge outrage. If they get one done in the coming months that is.

 

[Magdalia]

However does St Pancras (Midland bit) cope with 6 long distance trains an hour from four platforms?

Generally...

The 2 Corby services each hour use platform 1, with the 4 Sheffield/Nottingham services using the other 3, with some short turnarounds (eg 1254 ex Notts forms the 1305 to Notts), and some double use of platforms (eg 0835 ex Notts forms the 0902 to Sheffield and the 0905 to Notts).

When Thameslink divert in to St Pancras the EMR service is reduced to 3tph, with 4 tph for Thameslink (on sub 10 minute turnarounds).

And with ecs movements to and from Cricklewood or Kentish Town.

 

[21C101]

When the government does a preliminary business case of their "NPR" proposals, and finds a BCR of sub 1.2 and scraps it, I think there will be huge outrage. If they get one done in the coming months that is.

There isn't much outrage about HS2 going. Its only the politicians and those with an interest in railways getting excited.

NPR will almost certainly go the same way as the trans pennine Manchester to Sheffield Motorway (M67). If you are lucky a tiny bit of it might get built.

What use is a high speed service that gets you from Leeds city centre to Manchester city centre twenty minutes quicker when it takes the thick end of an hour to get to Leeds station on a bus?

 

[strawbrick]

There have been comparisons with HS1,
I worked on the Green Arrow (Costain / Hochtieff) bid for the construction of what is now known as HS1.
It was a totally different type of contract. The line of route was determined by the Client, London & Continental Railways (?). They had pre-determined the route of the new railway and the location of the stations (Ebbsfleet, Stratford & St Pancras). They also bought the land. The bidders were asked to submit designs for all three stations and had a free hand at positioning the new platforms for the services displaced from the St Pancras train shed - our bid had these along the right-hand side of the train shed with the new platform ends almost in line with the original. ones The winners of the bid were gifted the railway lands at Kings Cross / St Pancras and at Stratford, thereby (hopefully) reducing the tenders prices.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It would be worth making a detailed study of how HS1 was scoped and managed in comparison with the HS2 fiasco. It may well be that by the time HS1 was designed, it was obvious that constructing it was unavoidable (to gain full benefit from the Channel Tunnel - and to avoid the UK looking stupid in comparison with France ..!); and the type of line required, and the train services to use it were in no doubt. This then enabled the project being realistically designed and costed, neither under nor over-specified; thus enabling its construction to come in on time and on budget.

It's worth noting that HS1 (CTRL) was originally planned to reach St Pancras via south London.
But Environment Secretary Michael Heseltine successfully lobbied for a route via east London instead, in order to regenerate the east side of London.
That was a shock to all the planners, but eventually accepted as being sensible.
It all had to be replanned from the Medway bridge into London, including major works at Ebbsfleet and Stratford, and three major tunnels.
But after that policy change, it all went smoothly, including the very successful refurbishment of St Pancras.
Somehow, we don't seem capable of repeating the trick.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Too difficult. The two track section has a listed viaduct nearly 500m long and 30m high, plus 2 tunnels.

It wouldn't be possible to utilise much of any additional capacity because of lack of platforms at Kings Cross.

A bit more capacity can still be squeezed in by banning short trains and closing Welwyn North station.

And have you name checked the local MP?

Simplest would be a tunnel from somewhere near Welwyn GC to beyond the north end of the existing tunnels, (or further - it's a tradeoff between length and gradients) Modern high speed stock should be able to cope with the necessary down-and-up of 30 metres plus to get under the Mimram valley) Not cheap, but then neither are any of the alternatives.

 

[yorksrob]

There isn't much outrage about HS2 going. Its only the politicians and those with an interest in railways getting excited.

NPR will almost certainly go the same way as the trans pennine Manchester to Sheffield Motorway (M67). If you are lucky a tiny bit of it might get built.

What use is a high speed service that gets you from Leeds city centre to Manchester city centre twenty minutes quicker when it takes the thick end of an hour to get to Leeds station on a bus?

I'm not sure I see your point here.

I've taken hundreds of buses into Leeds over the past twenty years and they always take stupid amounts of time. HS2 or the railways in general have little influence over that

 

[21C101]

The question is why didnt HS2 emulate the success of HS1? Answer I would suggest is because LCR and many of its partners had a financial stake in the project from the outset and whilst indirectly financed by govt it still left that private sector focus. Oh and dont forget this was all executed under a Labour govt.

There were still enough ex BR people around with the expertise to do it without reinventing every wheel imaginable and adding all sorts of gold plating?

And they had the sense not to authorise phase 2 until phase 1 was up and running?

I'm not sure I see your point here.

I've taken hundreds of buses into Leeds over the past twenty years and they always take stupid amounts of time. HS2 or the railways in general have little influence over that

Basically that things like a decent metro system for Leeds will give more benefit to more people at far less cost.

£12 billion high speed gets people from Leeds to Manchester 20 minutes quicker.

Vs

£1 billion metro gets people from (most of) Leeds to Manchester 20 Minutes quicker and gets people from (outer) Leeds to Leeds 20 minutes quicker.

 

[HurdyGurdy]

What use is a high speed service that gets you from Leeds city centre to Manchester city centre twenty minutes quicker when it takes the thick end of an hour to get to Leeds station on a bus?

Well you might still be spending nearly an hour on the bus, but a bus potentially running 20 mins earlier, so a 20 min journey time saving.

But the point about local connectivity is well made.

 

[Bayum]

U-turn on Leamside with local Tories admitting reopening the line will be ‘looked into’, rather than built.

There were still enough ex BR people around with the expertise to do it without reinventing every wheel imaginable and adding all sorts of gold plating?

And they had the sense not to authorise phase 2 until phase 1 was up and running?


Basically that things like a decent metro system for Leeds will give more benefit to more people at far less cost.

£12 billion high speed gets people from Leeds to Manchester 20 minutes quicker.

Vs

£1 billion metro gets people from (most of) Leeds to Manchester 20 Minutes quicker and gets people from (outer) Leeds to Leeds 20 minutes quicker.

Where are you planning on building said Metro to cut journey times?

 

[Kingston Dan]

Seems like some people want to repeat HS2 problems.
it was easy to cancel as there was so much opposition. Now before any real detail has come out people are saying Network North is rubbish and won’t happen etc, which could be a self fulfilling prophesy.
More constructive to pick out the most sensible proposed schemes in each area and push for them to happen as soon as possible. Pat the government on the head a bit , “oh yes, this is a great idea, let’s get it done straight away!”, and then concentrate on delivering them quickly and efficiently such that future governments think money for rail projects is politically great.

Time to move on. HS2 beyond Handsacre is dead, and Labour is in no hurry to open that unpopular box again, and now has no money for it without cancelling Network North.

There is no Network North - it's smoke and mirrors. Of the so called savings from HS2 cancellation of £36 billion, £23.9bn goes on road schemes - including spending more on repairing potholes than the cost of HS2a. It's a direct switch to a road building programme announced on the same day that climate scientists were stunned by the massive rise in September global average temperatures.

 

[DerekC]

The British way of building long term strategic routes is just rubbish. Each stage has to have a business case created for it at the time construction is to start, based on the forecast revenue at that time using the Treasury's formulae and assumptions, at that time. If one of the stages turns bad, the whole thing stops. There is no way of building in the long term development needs of the country. What makes it worse is that on this occasion it seems that the abandonment of HS2 Phase 2 is being deliberately done in such a way that it will be very difficult to restart. They do things differently in other places. In France or Italy there will be a long term strategic plan with the routes mapped out roughly, and if a particular section can't be afforded for a few years it is put on ice, but with the clear intention to restart when funding can be made available. Here, it's all politics.

 

[Arkeeos]

The only way Labour could justify re-starting HS2 would be if the budget could be fixed (which will never happen with a large infrastructure project like this, because costs always go up and what are you going to do when the budget runs out ? Terminate the line at some buffer stops in the middle of a field ? And if you think you'll save money by only letting 'fixed price' contracts - good luck with that, contractors routinely add a %age onto Fixed Price contracts and this one would be a *very* high %age - it also means if there were *any* change to the scope - and I mean any change, moving the track 6' to the left, then the contractor will immediately say the contract has changed and charge for the change. And Labour would also need to prove the business case for HS2 stacks up - my guess is the government has canned this having looked at those figures and worked out that HS2 will not only cost billions to build it will cost billions to run for the next 100 years - and unless Labour turn the criteria for assessig the business case on its head (which would be a ridiculous way to go) they'll never make the numbers add up.

Why would the budget have to be fixed?

The business case for HS2 has already been proven, I'm sure if you've noticed but the line is already being built.

The government have scrapped it because Sunak personally does not like HS2. "Network North" is not a good enough document to warrant cancelling HS2 off, if it takes a 140 page document for it to start, it shouldn't take a 40page document to cancel, where no consultation has been sought, nor alternatives looked at.

When Labour get in their best choice will be to continue with the project, I can guarantee that.

Now before any real detail has come out

The fact that there isn't any detail is precisely a reason to complain, it shows how ill thought out Sunaks idea is.

There is no Network North - it's smoke and mirrors. Of the so called savings from HS2 cancellation of £36 billion, £23.9bn goes on road schemes - including spending more on repairing potholes than the cost of HS2a. It's a direct switch to a road building programme announced on the same day that climate scientists were stunned by the massive rise in September global average temperatures.

Network North is not a serious document, why should anyone take it seriously?

 

[HSTEd]

£1 billion metro gets people from (most of) Leeds to Manchester 20 Minutes quicker and gets people from (outer) Leeds to Leeds 20 minutes quicker.

£1bn wouldn't even get you one of the Rennes Metro lines, a system renowned for its low construction cost. (Rennes Metro Line B completed for €1.2bn several years ago)

You've got no chance of getting a metro system for a significant portion of leeds for that much money.

You might get a singular tram line, but not much more.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There is no Network North - it's smoke and mirrors. Of the so called savings from HS2 cancellation of £36 billion, £23.9bn goes on road schemes - including spending more on repairing potholes than the cost of HS2a.

The fact that potholes tend not to go on strike may well have been in the minds of those who set out the terms of Network North...

 

[Facing Back]

With this much caffeine in you, surely you can figure out a way to scope me some new lifts at Northwich...!

Northwich station barely has platforms. Does it have old lifts? I couldn't even find a decent pub close by when I had a near 2 hour wait for the next train to Manchester.

 

[21C101]

£100Bn sounds like an awful lot of money, but in the context of e.g. the annual NHS budget of £168bn, it's really not that much to spend for a 100 year capital investment. We are investing £30bn in just one Nuclear Power Station, with a second still committed.

Being a Banker, I cannot believe for one second that Sunak does not understand all these economics. We can only conclude that he is ideologically opposed to state investment and doesn't like trains.

No. he is skint. Expect plenty more things to go.

Britain will spend 10.4% of total government revenue servicing its debts in 2023, Fitch has forecast, at a total of £110bn. Interest payments on a 12-month basis reached £117bn in May 2023, double the level in the period to September 2021 [and triple 2018-19 - and still rising fast]

This reflects the high proportion of inflation-linked debt in the UK, Fitch said

UK faces highest debt interest costs in developed world

The UK faces the highest debt interest bill in the developed world this year, according to Fitch Ratings, due to its high proportion of inflation-linked debt.

www.investmentweek.co.uk

 

[irish_rail]

As I have said before, I expect something similar to 1992 or perhaps 1974, at the next election, not 1997.

The anger out there isn't just restricted to HS2 though. They have managed to upset more or less everyone in some way or other. Hs2 is the tip of the iceberg perhaps, but it also shows up the childish way in which they are governing and that is what will affect how people vote more so than the loss of HS2.

 

[mandub]

As I have said before, I expect something similar to 1992 or perhaps 1974, at the next election, not 1997.

You can make some good money on Betfair if you don't think Labour will win.
Can lay them at 1.2
Easy money for you

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I find it hard to believe that Handsworth to Golborne the bit that's been cancelled reduced Glasgow journey times by an hour.

Handsacre...

 

[Alex McKenna]

The whole HS2 cock-up would make a fantastic comedy series, similar to The Thick of it, W1A 1AA and 2012 and Yes Minister..