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Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

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Nicholas Lewis

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Just read today that the Brescia - Padova (about 160 km) new-built HSL (Not difficult topographically, but in a very densely settled region) is costed at 10 bn €. The Austrian Koralmbahn, 130 km of newly built railway including a 30 km tunnel, but through much less densely settled terrain, is supposed to cost 6 bn €.
Koralm Tunnel is in hard rock much more expensive to tunnel through tham Chiltern chalk and still comes out at £5B. TRU has one existing tunnel that needs electrifying, 4km of new formation and putting back two tracks on existing formation and comes to 11B. Its ludicrous whichever way you try and cut it and it infuriates me there is no challenge anymore. Politicians like the big sums for PR stunts then realise the error of their ways when it all comes unstuck. In this case interest rates rising has been the undoing of the largesse that has been allowed to run riot in NR over the last decade.
 
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21C101

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Well given Euston HS is being reduced to six platforms they wont have the capacity anyhow. This is just now an expensive WCML capacity relief project surely.
That is the core reason for it. The rest was "nice to have" in business case terms.

I suspect phase 1 would have been canned if it wasn't beyond the point of no return.
 

OhNoAPacer

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This replaces a defined plan with a list of largely uncosted and unplanned ideas that will allow the conservatives to shout look they are trying to steal your improvements if Labour talk about reinstating phase 2 of HS2.
In reality an awful lot of these will never get to the drawing board never mind off it.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Before you get to reopenings - what will the cost be of allowing HS2 compatiable trains to run to Manchester? Will this require new lines to allow even the existing service level to be maintained? Local services were cutback when the Pendolinos were introduced. For instance, do we need the Manchester Airport spur to be extended to become a through line? Do we need the Denton line to be upgraded to allow regular passenger services? Do we need tram-trains changing from Network Rail to Metrolink in the Baguley area?
I shouldn't think much will change on London-Manchester.
HS2 trains will be able to work over the existing lines north of Lichfield, though they will be a bit slower without tilt.
The whole Liverpool-Manchester debate is up for grabs as £12 billion has been earmarked for it but the route and services have still to be defined.
I don't think anybody knows how it will all fit together into the trans-Pennine scheme.
 

NoRoute

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Extremely depressing news - many other countries in Europe (Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland) plus even much poorer countries than the UK (Indonesia, Morocco) are managing to build high speed rail lines, why can't we?

Because the UK rail industry appears unable to engineer and deliver HS2 at anything approaching a reasonable cost, or at costs even remotely close to other countries. If the UK rail industry had been able to deliver what was originally promised at somewhere even vaguely near to the original cost estimates, then HS2 would still be going ahead in full, it's the failure to control costs which has killed it.
 

MarkLong

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The PM announced a series of new rail projects in his speech which cancelled "the rest of HS2".

Those I noted were:
- North Wales Coast electrification
- Liverpool-Hull full electrification
- new station in Bradford with 30m journey time to Manchester

There are others in his "hundreds and hundreds" of projects which will use the £36 billion freed up from the HS2 budget.
HS2 will at least go to Euston, and by inference Handsacre, as HS2 trains will still reach Manchester.
My guess is the proposed new sections of NPR (Liverpool-Manchester Airport and Piccadilly-Marsden) are dead, with existing lines upgraded instead.

Lost in the detail is that HS2 trains will be slower than Pendolinos north of Handsacre.
The rolling electrification programme was blocked by him in 2021, most of mentioned projects are not new, they just copy from rolling electification plan, IRP, and union connectivity review. AND most of this project, apart from few electification, will never get delivered.
 

Austriantrain

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The line needs a working terminal to allow it's capacity to be utilised, but Euston could be considerably descoped from the 10 platform monster formerly planned

That would seem like a terrible decision. I strongly doubt that Euston would be much cheaper with only, say, 6 tracks, but it would forever restrict the number of trains on the remaining HS2. Even more short-sighted than cancelling phase 2.
 

JamieL

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I do like all the discussion in this thread about Sunak's alternative projects - you do realise that he has no intention of delivering any of them don't you?
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Yes, and Fenchurch Street managed 20 peak trains per hour on 4 platforms.

But 18tph is the design capacity of HS2, so there can't be more than that coming through.

15 minute turnarounds and one platform in reserve. It's tight but it is potentially doable, although it will require compromises and more complex train planning.
A commuter operation is totally different lots of people who are on a daily mission and weirdly quite an organised system an IC operation is random people making a one off journey not knowing the game. Even LNER who are amongst the best can't turn around a late running train at the Cross in less than 25mins if your are going to clean and replenish it effectively. Euston wont need 18 TPH to cover its reduced NW destinations now.
 

47550

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Personally I dont think this is an altogether bad decision.

Euston has been kept and Manchester won't be a great deal slower with HS2 trains joining the Trent Valley north of Lichfield. It is certainly good news for Stoke on Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport.

If North Wales line is juiced then that too can join HS2 south of Rugeley.

The most interesting part of the announcement, HS2 wise was that they will still be running trains to Leeds via HS2 together with the announcement that Sheffield to Leeds will be juiced; so it looks like Euston to Leeds via Trent is planned

Best news of the day for me though is that some of the cash saved is to be used to reopen Bere Alston to Tavistock.
Why is it good news for Stoke and Macclesfield ? The plans were for HS2 trains to run Euston to Macc (and stopping at Stoke), so scrapping HS2 won’t make much difference to passengers from these stations travelling to London.
 
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Interesting piece in the Independent a few days ago

Rob Holden delivered HS1 on time and budget; apparently, he made it known that he was available to participate in the delivery of HS2 - and was told he didn't have the required skills and experience!

If he had been involved, I wonder if HS2 would have been cancelled?
 

mike57

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Am I surprised by the announcement, no its been expected.

Is it a good thing, well yes and no, yes the costs seemed to be spiralling out of control, but no because I find it sad that as a country we seem unable to deliver major infrastructure projects.

Is it the political own goal to announce it in Manchester. Andy Burnham and Rishi Sunak are never going to be on the same side of anything, I think it may not turn out to be as stupid as everyone is saying.
 

Dave W

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That would seem like a terrible decision. I strongly doubt that Euston would be much cheaper with only, say, 6 tracks, but it would forever restrict the number of trains on the remaining HS2. Even more short-sighted than cancelling phase 2.

I'm sure I'm about to take a kicking from those who know more - but I would have thought the key costs in building a new station are already baked in before you start talking about numbers of platforms.

The "gold plated" nonsense that was mentioned several times comes back to someone's bright idea that cutting a chunk out of Euston's HS2 terminus means they can save a block of brownfield land for some "gold plated" housing. Of which none will be affordable.

But hey, at least they didn't knock down an entire corner of the area for it!
 

HSTEd

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A commuter operation is totally different lots of people who are on a daily mission and weirdly quite an organised system an IC operation is random people making a one off journey not knowing the game.
If HS2 is even remotely successful only very few of its passengers will be first-timers after the first few years.

Very few people who travel on trains have not travelled on trains several times before.

Even LNER who are amongst the best can't turn around a late running train at the Cross in less than 25mins if your are going to clean and replenish it effectively. Euston wont need 18 TPH to cover its reduced NW destinations now.
Replenish what?
Very few of the services at Euston are going to need replenishing.

Do you expect to sell a lot of catering on 45-minute journeys to Birmingham, or ~105-minute services to Manchester or Liverpool?
You might want replenishment on journeys to the north WCML but thats going to represent one or two trains per hour at most.

My point was that 18tph is in no way excluded by a six platform station solution.
 

MarkLong

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Because the UK rail industry appears unable to engineer and deliver HS2 at anything approaching a reasonable cost, or at costs even remotely close to other countries. If the UK rail industry had been able to deliver what was originally promised at somewhere even vaguely near to the original cost estimates, then HS2 would still be going ahead in full, it's the failure to control costs which has killed it.
To be honest, 8bn over 2019 budget for P1 is in line with most of nation's significant projects. The crossrail 1 also 30 percent overbudget. the HONG KONG HSR is also around 30 percent overbudget. It is the anti-railway PM desepartely want to show differences with his predecessors kill the phrase 2.

Phrase 2a is basically flatline and minimal risky, perhaps Rishi did not even know the difference between P2a and P2b.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Interesting piece in the Independent a few days ago

Rob Holden delivered HS1 on time and budget; apparently, he made it known that he was available to participate in the delivery of HS2 - and was told he didn't have the required skills and experience!

If he had been involved, I wonder if HS2 would have been cancelled?
Well it certainly wouldn't have cost as much and that project had Bechtel all over it the renowned high speed railway builders but they delivered it.
 

BrianW

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Because the UK rail industry appears unable to engineer and deliver HS2 at anything approaching a reasonable cost, or at costs even remotely close to other countries. If the UK rail industry had been able to deliver what was originally promised at somewhere even vaguely near to the original cost estimates, then HS2 would still be going ahead in full, it's the failure to control costs which has killed it.
It's optimism bias and 'yes people' in the rail industry responding to stop-go of government spending that has failed to deliver, remember APT and West Coast 'improvements', GWML electrification etc ; and optimism bias on the part of the PM and his 'yes people' that has brought this marginal constituency 'wish list'- how likely are any of these likely to make sufficient pre-election progress to have their desired effect of re-election.
 

21C101

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Because the UK rail industry appears unable to engineer and deliver HS2 at anything approaching a reasonable cost, or at costs even remotely close to other countries. If the UK rail industry had been able to deliver what was originally promised at somewhere even vaguely near to the original cost estimates, then HS2 would still be going ahead in full, it's the failure to control costs which has killed it.
Point of order.

UK construction industry not UK rail industry.

And Road Construction has seen similar eyewatering cost increases.

Could it be something to do with the blizzard of legislation over the last thirty years, much of it laudibly aimed at improving construction safety but having the side effect that exhaustive documentation is required to prove negatives which has created a vast industry in its wake of highly paid paper producers.

Just short of 40 years ago when I started, the documentation was not much more than the bits of the rulebook that applied to you and engineering drawings.

When I started 80% of the project costs were the labour to do it and 20% the labour to do the drawings, surveys and permissions.

Now about 80% is the labour to do the drawings, instruction documents, surveys, permissions, regulatory compliances, environmental impact, RIMINI paperwork and about 20% to actually do it. And guess which lot gets paid more.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Replenish what?
Very few of the services at Euston are going to need replenishing.

Do you expect to sell a lot of catering on 45 minute journeys to Birmingham, or ~105 minute services to Manchester or Liverpool?
Argh its expensive commuter railway now;).

Anyhow thats a fair observation for Birmingham but not beyond surely although ive just come back from Switzerland and the longer distance inter regional services just have a self service shop on them and that seems to suffice for 3-4hr journeys.
 

TUC

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Because the UK rail industry appears unable to engineer and deliver HS2 at anything approaching a reasonable cost, or at costs even remotely close to other countries. If the UK rail industry had been able to deliver what was originally promised at somewhere even vaguely near to the original cost estimates, then HS2 would still be going ahead in full, it's the failure to control costs which has killed it.
Exactly right. The real issues here are:
a) the UK's inability on multiple major projects to manage and deliver them on time and within cost and;
b) being thrown off course by every objector and special interest group, especially if they are in the South East.
 

fandroid

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There's a lot of electrification mentioned around Sheffield - to Manchester, to Leeds and Hull, but I didn't see mention of completion from the south!
 

SteveM70

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The "gold plated" nonsense that was mentioned several times comes back to someone's bright idea that cutting a chunk out of Euston's HS2 terminus means they can save a block of brownfield land for some "gold plated" housing. Of which none will be affordable

Bet the design for the housing has "a Euston arch fit for the 21st century" in it
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Point of order.

UK construction industry not UK rail industry.

And Road Construction has seen similar eyewatering cost increases.

Could it be something to do with the blizzard of legislation over the last thirty years, much of it laudibly aimed at improving construction safety but having the side effect that exhaustive documentation is required to prove negatives which has created a vast industry in its wake of highly paid paper producers.

Just short of 40 years ago when I started, the documentation was not much more than the bits of the rulebook that applied to you and engineering drawings.

When I started 80% of the project costs were the labour to do it and 20% the labour to do the drawings, surveys and permissions.

Now about 80% is the labour to do the drawings, instruction documents, surveys, permissions, regulatory compliances, environmental impact, RIMINI paperwork and about 20% to actually do it. And guess which lot gets paid more.
Transparency of contract costs is poor on HS2 but VoestAlpine have £210m contract for 250 S&C units which include the point machines. These are for the main line as well as sidings and that is a very good price. The civils contract are are on target cost partnering basis so if any of them were going sour the delivering companies would have shown the white flag in their reprots and accounts by now but havent.

The stark reality as i say is HS2 Ltd are being very restrictive on where the costs have gone citing commercial confidence. Until an independent body is allowed in there to do a proper deep dive we will never know what has caused costs to spiral. Whats for sure is DafT have failed to exercise any sort of oversight here and like Crossrail the consultants supporting them are either ineffective or incapable of understanding what is happening.
 
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