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CONFIRMED - Tube fares frozen until March 2025

bakerstreet

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I know there’s an election and I know this potential plan will attract the usual critics.

But here’s hoping it may happen.

With all the doom from LNER……….
the £2 England bus cap, Scotrail off peak prices all day and possibly this, it’s good to see some passenger friendly decisions being made.

Hopes of a fares freeze or cut were sparked on Thursday after Sadiq Khan revealed that expected income from Tube and bus passengers will be lower than initially predicted.

The mayor is expected to unveil his annual fares package on Friday, outlining changes to Transport for London services, including the Elizabeth line and the London Overground, from March 3.


He is expected to impose an average increase in Tube and rail fares of at least 4.9 per cent, in line with the Government’s increase in national rail regulated fares, because of the need to maintain parity with train tickets due to the Travelcard agreement with rail firms.

But figures included in his revised annual budget, published on Wednesday night, show the amount of passenger income TfL expects to receive in 2024/25 has fallen by £128m, from £5,647.1m outlined in his first draft budget in December to £5,519.1m in his latest draft.

Sian Berry, the Green transport spokesperson on the London Assembly, who uncovered the change in TfL’s predicted income, told the Standard: “He is going to cut fares. We know he is going to cut fares from these numbers.”

She said the most likely explanation would be Mr Khan deciding to freeze bus fares at £1.75 – or potentially cut them – or axe the ban on older Londoners using their 60+ Oyster or Freedom Pass before 9am.

But mayoral sources suggested Ms Berry may not be correct in believing that fares were about to be cut.

In addition, an explanation in the updated budget said TfL had updated its “demand forecasts” to include “projections for less reliable factors, such as the commuting frequency of office workers and when it is likely to reach the new normal for travel behaviour”.

This means that the £128m fall income could be caused by fewer journeys rather than cheaper fares.
Ms Berry said it was “outrageous” for Mr Khan to refuse to answer questions about his new budget at Mayor’s Question Time on Thursday. He said he would answer questions at a meeting of the assembly next Thursday.

Ms Berry said: “He could do the same fares freeze that he did between 2016-20. He shouldn’t refuse to answer questions just because he hasn’t issued his press release yet. It’s absolutely outrageous. It’s like a Government minister not telling Parliament stuff. He should be open and honest about this, but he is not being.”

 
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Busaholic

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Am I missing something? How does an expected drop in fares income lead to the conclusion that fares are about to be cut?
 

bakerstreet

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Am I missing something? How does an expected drop in fares income lead to the conclusion that fares are about to be cut?

Not sure. Perhaps because if ridership is recovering yet fare income is predicted to reduce, then a potential price freeze or cut has been ‘priced in’?
 

JonathanH

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Was there not a government requirement for TfL fares to increase at the rate of RPI to address the funding gap as part of the funding agreements? Did that fall away?
 

Thirteen

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I know increasing fares isn't popular but surely if TfL needs the money for new rolling stock and other upgrades then an increase needs to happen?

Will be interesting what the other Mayoral candidates are proposing.
 

JonathanH

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I know increasing fares isn't popular but surely if TfL needs the money for new rolling stock and other upgrades then an increase needs to happen?
Clearly the imperative is more revenue.

July 2023 RPI was 9.0%. So long as ridership doesn't fall by 9%, an increase in line with inflation will being in more revenue.

It does seem odd that a projection is being made of less revenue.
 

Hadders

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It's very strange. You'd have though Khan would've learned his lesson following the fares freeze a few years back, and the impact it had on TfL's funding. Also, somewhat strange that they were pleading poverty and proposed withdrawing Outboundary Travelcards not so long ago because of the impact on their income.
 

winks

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City Hall have apparently received a windfall of £512m funded by additional business rates and reserves ?

Note the daily zonal caps are being increased.


Sadiq Khan on Friday announced a freeze in most bus and Tube fares as he sought to dramatically pave his way to re-election The mayor said pay-as-you-go fares – which account for about 80 per cent of Tube journeys and 74 per cent of bus journeys – would remain unchanged until March next year.
 
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HullRailMan

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So TfL is short of cash….but it’s an election year for the mayor so gimmicks are more important than logic.
Given the rest of the country can afford to pay £2 for a bus fare, why can’t London?
 

Thirteen

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One thing I wonder is how his rivals react because pulling the fare freeze after the election isn't happening. I'm not sure how fare caps increasing works with the fares not going up though.
 

JonathanH

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I'm not sure how fare caps increasing works with the fares not going up though.
Fairly easily. It means that the worker travelling a short distance by a bus or tube journey sees no increase, but people spending longer travelling around pay more. Seems a very sensible strategy to me.
 

MotCO

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So the Mayor can't tell the Assembly about it yesterday, but can tell the press today. I suppose it stops the opposition parties from asking awkward questions. :s
 

Mikey C

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An election handout. Completely unnecessary electorally, as Khan will easily win anyway, and creates the impression that London is flush with cash, and thus doesn't need any government support for major projects or fleet renewal.
 

Thirteen

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An election handout. Completely unnecessary electorally, as Khan will easily win anyway, and creates the impression that London is flush with cash, and thus doesn't need any government support for major projects or fleet renewal.
One has to wonder if Khan is expecting Labour to win the GE so will likely get support for the big ticket projects down the line.

That being said, I think the DfT has said that the fleet renewal isn't expected to be covered fully by TfL so probably they'll still happen under the current Government as I can't imagine them saying no in an election year.
 

thomalex

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Completely unnecessary electorally, as Khan will easily win anyway

It’s not that clear cut now the voting system has changed to FPTP. Especially if there is any significant challenger on the left (hint Jeremy Corbyn who has confirmed he’s considering standing) this could split the Khan vote and give Susan Hall the win even without an overall majority.
 

Thirteen

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I assume even with the fare freeze that the rolling stock replacement is still on the cards.
 

JonathanH

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I assume even with the fare freeze that the rolling stock replacement is still on the cards.
Piccadilly line, DLR and Croydon Tramlink. Are any others at a stage where they are actually 'on the cards'?
 

Thirteen

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Piccadilly line, DLR and Croydon Tramlink. Are any others at a stage where they are actually 'on the cards'?
Bakerloo stock replacement is the one in the balance but I suspect that one is for central Government to part fund and I suspect it'll be an Election promise both in the Mayoral Election and General Election by the candidates as no one wants job losses and also it's well overdue.
 

bramling

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Bakerloo stock replacement is the one in the balance but I suspect that one is for central Government to part fund and I suspect it'll be an Election promise both in the Mayoral Election and General Election by the candidates as no one wants job losses and also it's well overdue.

Quite a sad state of affairs that a fleet replacement now seems to be tied to the mayoral cycle.

Meanwhile, so much for no money…
 

HullRailMan

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Khan has allocated £123m for this from the GLA budget, so Londoners are still paying for it. Meanwhile TfL is over £15bn in debt and this is hardly going to help that situation.
 

island

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I hope my fellow Londoners will like me see this for the blatant attempt to buy the election that it is and vote accordingly.
 

Turtle

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An election handout. Completely unnecessary electorally, as Khan will easily win anyway, and creates the impression that London is flush with cash, and thus doesn't need any government support for major projects or fleet renewal.
If you read the Mayor's recent comments to the Fabian Society you will see that he most certainly does not regard the election as a foregone conclusion. This time around the candidates have to contend with the Tories' attempt at voter suppression designed disadvantage Labour - although as Rees Mogg subsequently remarked it might have been a bit of an own goal!
 

northwichcat

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I hope my fellow Londoners will like me see this for the blatant attempt to buy the election that it is and vote accordingly.

I don't know how representative the view is of London as a whole, but I've heard his decision to increase NYE Fireworks tickets by 33%, while continuing to organise a free to attend New Year's Day Parade hasn't gone down well.
 

bakerstreet

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I hope my fellow Londoners will like me see this for the blatant attempt to buy the election that it is and vote accordingly.

With an income tax cut and possible inheritance tax cut coming in weeks from the national government, and fares freeze from the London elected Mayor they are all buying our votes to some extent.

Mind you the Mayor is saying the GLA precept will rise in 2024/25 so not a complete vote purchase by any means, unless you don’t pay the council tax.

Best to ignore all the above and vote for your values.

I don't know how representative the view is of London as a whole, but I've heard his decision to increase NYE Fireworks tickets by 33%, while continuing to organise a free to attend New Year's Day Parade hasn't gone down well.

For info, I think the Mayor doesn’t organise the New Years Day Parade. It’s a privately run and privately funded event as I understand it.

 

MotCO

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If you read the Mayor's recent comments to the Fabian Society you will see that he most certainly does not regard the election as a foregone conclusion. This time around the candidates have to contend with the Tories' attempt at voter suppression designed disadvantage Labour - although as Rees Mogg subsequently remarked it might have been a bit of an own goal!

I've also heard that Jeremy Corbyn may stand as an Independent which could split the Labour vote in a FTTP election.
 

Starmill

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I sincerely hope not, he’s done enough damage to London as it is, never mind having to put up with another four years of him.
Please keep your baseless moaning about the Mayor to yourself or to an appropriate general discussion thread. This one is about the LU and other TfL fares.

Khan has allocated £123m for this from the GLA budget, so Londoners are still paying for it. Meanwhile TfL is over £15bn in debt and this is hardly going to help that situation.
The debt isn't due for repayment all in one go though is it?

Completely unnecessary electorally, as Khan will easily win anyway, and creates the impression that London is flush with cash, and thus doesn't need any government support for major projects or fleet renewal.
Does it? Travelcards and caps going up a significant amount.

So TfL is short of cash….but it’s an election year for the mayor so gimmicks are more important than logic.
Given the rest of the country can afford to pay £2 for a bus fare, why can’t London?
Why isn't the English £2 scheme cut to £1.75? Barely anyone pays cash nowadays so it's not that.

You'd have though Khan would've learned his lesson following the fares freeze a few years back, and the impact it had on TfL's funding.
It's very questionable that it had a large impact though isn't it? I'm not saying it to was zero but public transport is and should be subsidised.

Also, somewhat strange that they were pleading poverty and proposed withdrawing Outboundary Travelcards not so long ago because of the impact on their income.
Presumably they are able to fund this partially because of the extra money that raised. Sounds fair enough to me.
 
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