Conservative Party after the election

[Stephen42]

It's not actually that out there. Most of the MRP polls, which in the previous two elections (the only ones since this methodology was created) have given the most accurate results, are showing a similar wipe-out result for the Conservatives.

That said, I would be very surprised if they do actually get less than 100 seats. I suspect the MRP methodology isn't particularly well tuned for a landslide projection and is overestimating the number of seats that will change hands - as well as the inevitable tightening of the result that will happen towards polling day (this isn't to say the Tories have any chance of winning - just they have a good chance of not losing so badly).

All methodologies have challenges with shifts of this magnitude. MRP polls are newer but generally do better, though there are various modelling assumptions which vary by pollster. Electoral Calculus who did this recent one go for a more proportional scaling, which leads to landslides as the vote collapses everywhere. Their predicted majority has changed from 294 to 320 in this latest iteration.

YouGov's MRP model does a partial unwind and then fits distribution of swings to reflect previous elections, while not changing the size it alters many contests as the collapse isn't so even. For models covering the same period, YouGov had a labour majority of 154 and Electoral Calculus 268. It remains to be seen which will be most accurate, once the candidates are known there will be further shifts as votes are redistributed to candidates standing in each constituency.

 

[Cross City]

They’ll get over 100

Probably

(and more like 150)

I would not be surprised at all if they end up on less than 150. They deserve to be absolutely obliterated however.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm going for more than 200 seats for the Tories

Get yourself down the bookies for that - 12/1.

Probably



I would not be surprised at all if they end up on less than 150. They deserve to be absolutely obliterated however.

Bookies reckon 100-150.

 

[RT4038]

Well the railway treats them as adults when it comes to fares.

If you have to pay full fares like an adult, why not have the right to vote like an adult?

When the law in general treats 16 year olds as adults. Got to pay full fare for airline tickets from 10 or something - should 11 year olds get the vote then?

 

[The Ham]

When the law in general treats 16 year olds as adults. Got to pay full fare for airline tickets from 10 or something - should 11 year olds get the vote then?

The airlines are slightly abnormal in that regard (I'm aware that some places like theme parks base their chargeable tickets by height), there's always been quite a few things that you could do once your reach 16, with quite a few linked to laws.

Whilst various things have increased the age (for example smoking or needing to be in full time education), 16 is still a fairly key age.

I know at least one 11 year old who would quite like to be able to vote and are probably as politically aware (if not more so) than some people who vote (and almost certainly more than those who don't).

 

[zero]

Got to pay full fare for airline tickets from 10 or something - should 11 year olds get the vote then?

On airlines, children under 2 may share a seat with their parents ('lap infant'). Typically this is charged at 10% of the full ticket price. Children 2 and older must occupy their own seat, and are therefore charged the full fare.

Some airlines, including British Airways, allow children who turn 2 after the first flight on a ticket to pay the infant fare for the entire ticket, even though they will require their own seat on the sectors flown after their birthday. This is quite a good deal if parents are able to take advantage of it.

Until 2015, children paid the same UK taxes as adults on flight sectors departing from a UK airport. From mid-2015 to mid-2016, children under 12 were exempt from UK APD if flying in economy class. From mid-2016, children under 16 are exempt from UK APD if flying in economy class. Children who fly in cabins other than economy pay the same APD as adults.

Other countries have their own rules regarding whether children need to pay taxes on their flight tickets.

Flight tickets also include fees levied by airports (e.g. a fee to pass through security, a contribution towards construction / improvement costs) and these are typically the same for adults and children.

 

[BrianW]

It could be a close run thing ...

"The Tories could win just 66 seats in the general election, the first MRP poll of the campaign suggests"

Tories face being reduced to 66 seats, new poll suggests

First MRP analysis of the campaign puts the Conservatives on course for their worst electoral performance ever

www.telegraph.co.uk

... and that was before Rishi's D-day fiasco

 

[adc82140]

For the voting age it's simple as far as I'm concerned. If you're old enough to pay tax, you're old enough to vote. I think it's the Americans that say "no taxation without representation"

 

[JamesT]

For the voting age it's simple as far as I'm concerned. If you're old enough to pay tax, you're old enough to vote. I think it's the Americans that say "no taxation without representation"

No minimum age then?

 

[Donny Dave]

So the voting age can be lowered to 0 then?

 

[birchesgreen]

I'm not aware that babies and toddlers pay tax, i suspect mummy pays it for them.

 

[Donny Dave]

If they have any income over the tax free allowance, they have to pay tax.

 

[adc82140]

I'm not aware that babies and toddlers pay tax, i suspect mummy pays it for them.

Quite. I don't know of any kids paying income tax, or for that matter any other tax. Unless the pay for a paper round has suddenly broken the tax threshold.

If they have any income over the tax free allowance, they have to pay tax.

How many kids do you know under 16 who earn over that amount? There will obviously be exceptions like spolit kids of the super rich, but that can be legislated around. I'd suggest 16 as a perfectly reasonable minimum age. At 16 you can get married, have kids, leave education and get a full time job, so why can't you vote?

 

[AlterEgo]

Quite. I don't know of any kids paying income tax, or for that matter any other tax. Unless the pay for a paper round has suddenly broken the tax threshold.


How many kids do you know under 16 who earn over that amount? There will obviously be exceptions like spolit kids of the super rich, but that can be legislated around. I'd suggest 16 as a perfectly reasonable minimum age. At 16 you can get married, have kids, leave education and get a full time job, so why can't you vote?

You can't get married at 16 under any circumstances, and you cannot really leave education either. It's compulsory to be in education or training until you are 18.

There are not many 16 year olds paying tax, but in any case treating the electoral franchise as some sort of transactional system where "this is how I decide how my tax is spent" is a reductive effort and doomed to failure.

 

[JamesT]

Quite. I don't know of any kids paying income tax, or for that matter any other tax. Unless the pay for a paper round has suddenly broken the tax threshold.


How many kids do you know under 16 who earn over that amount?

The usual glib answer is to point out VAT is a tax, so any child spending their pocket money is paying tax.

Although I don’t know any personally, I suspect there’s a few child actors out there that manage to earn enough to pay income tax.

But the point is that they’re liable to pay tax if they earn enough at any age, as I assume you weren’t meaning that the franchise should solely be restricted to those actually paying tax? So those earning less than the personal allowance wouldn’t be allowed to vote any more?

 

[Donny Dave]

It's not just taxable income from wages though. If a sum of money is settled on a newborn outside of a tax free wrapper, then interest and/or dividend income is also taken into account. The threshold for both of these is £1000. Go beyond that, and dividend income is taxed at 10%, and interst earned is taxed at 20%, or your marginal rate, which ever is higher.

 

[Bald Rick]

Quite. I don't know of any kids paying income tax, or for that matter any other tax. Unless the pay for a paper round has suddenly broken the tax threshold.


How many kids do you know under 16 who earn over that amount? There will obviously be exceptions like spolit kids of the super rich, but that can be legislated around. I'd suggest 16 as a perfectly reasonable minimum age. At 16 you can get married, have kids, leave education and get a full time job, so why can't you vote?

It‘s a long time ago, but I was paying NI and some tax when I was 16 doing part time jobs weekends and evenings plus many many extra hours in the summer holidays.

 

[cb a1]

You can't get married at 16 under any circumstances, and you cannot really leave education either. It's compulsory to be in education or training until you are 18.

Not all parts of the UK have the same rules as England.
Education https://www.gov.uk/know-when-you-can-leave-school
Marriage https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/regis...d-is-the-minimum-age-for-marriage-in-scotland

 

[Enthusiast]

For the voting age it's simple as far as I'm concerned. If you're old enough to pay tax, you're old enough to vote. I think it's the Americans that say "no taxation without representation"

So should that mean that those who pay no tax cannot vote?

 

[AlterEgo]

Not all parts of the UK have the same rules as England.
Education https://www.gov.uk/know-when-you-can-leave-school
Marriage https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/regis...d-is-the-minimum-age-for-marriage-in-scotland

That's even better then. Votes at 16 in Scotland but not England for Westminster, why not indeed.

 

[adc82140]

So should that mean that those who pay no tax cannot vote?

I challenge you to find many adults who pay no tax whatsoever for anything.

 

[AlterEgo]

I challenge you to find many adults who pay no tax whatsoever for anything.

The same goes for you and children under 16. They all pay at least VAT if they ever buy any of the millions of things that qualify, regardless of whether the money came from mum and dad's allowance or not. It's a reductive argument. The state considers adults to be 18, and that seems a perfectly adequate cutoff for national elections.

 

[GusB]

That's even better then. Votes at 16 in Scotland but not England for Westminster, why not indeed.

Not quite. You can vote at 16 for Council and Scottish Parliament elections, but not Westminster.

 

[AlterEgo]

Not quite. You can vote at 16 for Council and Scottish Parliament elections, but not Westminster.

That was the joke - of course you can't do it and it's daft to link it to tax or anything else.

 

[takno]

It's not just taxable income from wages though. If a sum of money is settled on a newborn outside of a tax free wrapper, then interest and/or dividend income is also taken into account. The threshold for both of these is £1000. Go beyond that, and dividend income is taxed at 10%, and interst earned is taxed at 20%, or your marginal rate, which ever is higher.

The £1000 interest allowance and £500 dividend allowance are separate from the basic tax-free allowance. You can earn 11 grand in dividends and not pay income tax as long as you don't earn anything else.

 

[zero]

It's not just taxable income from wages though. If a sum of money is settled on a newborn outside of a tax free wrapper, then interest and/or dividend income is also taken into account. The threshold for both of these is £1000. Go beyond that, and dividend income is taxed at 10%, and interst earned is taxed at 20%, or your marginal rate, which ever is higher.

The £1000 interest allowance and £500 dividend allowance are separate from the basic tax-free allowance. You can earn 11 grand in dividends and not pay income tax as long as you don't earn anything else.

There is also the starting rate for savings so you can earn up to £18570 of bank interest without any tax.

However, if children earn more than £100 of bank interest in a year from money that was given to them by their parents, that interest will be treated as being earned by the parent(s) for tax purposes.

So for a child to earn a large amount of interest without being taxed, there must be a clear trail of funds which comes from other relatives (or generous friends). I believe interest coming from any sort of trust would alsobe taxable at high rates.

 

[Cross City]

Not sure why anybody would be against 16 year olds voting? Scared they'd destroy their rose tinted view of old-person dominated Tory Britain?

16 year olds deserve a say in their future as much as a 90 year old deserves a say in the country they're going to be leaving behind.

Personally I'd give the vote to anybody who'd turn 18 within the next scheduled parliamentary term.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Not sure why anybody would be against 16 year olds voting?

Maybe because 16 year olds are basically, in many ways, children? Do you really believe that schoolkids should be deciding who the Government is?

Any age at which we deem people old enough to vote is going to be to some extent arbitrary, but 18 seems a good fit because that's the point at which a large number of people are leaving school/college, either starting work or going to University, and therefore reaching the point where they are looking after themselves (as opposed to being largely looked after by their parents) and so start to have a more direct stake in how the country is governed.

Scared they'd destroy their rose tinted view of old-person dominated Tory Britain?

Is that the best argument you can offer for votes for 16 year olds? Smearing and mischaracterising people who disagree with you? Can't you offer some actual rational reasons for your views?

16 year olds deserve a say in their future as much as a 90 year old deserves a say in the country they're going to be leaving behind.

And with the current system, any 16 year old will will have a say soon: As soon as they turn 18 they'll be able to vote, and with elections typically every 4-ish years, they will probably get to vote in maybe 15 general elections within their lifetime, as well as numerous local authority elections.

 

[birchesgreen]

Maybe because 16 year olds are basically, in many ways, children? Do you really believe that schoolkids should be deciding who the Government is?

Can't do a worse job than most adults.

 

[SteveP29]

even if Labour are underwhelming and boring.

at this point, boring is a very desirable situation.
Massively preferable to constant gaslighting, dog whistles, dead cats, divisive policies, deflect & blame and scandal after scandal after scandal.