Coronavirus and electrification

[GRALISTAIR]

I know this might sound crazy and I know I keep beating the drum about electrification, but we have seen pollution go down during the lockdown etc. Covid 19 is a Respiratory disease. Electrification as well as being low carbon is also low in NOx and particulates which make respiratory diseases worse. The economy will need a major boost in spending after the worse is over. Could it be that Covid 19 is the final catalyst needed to get a rolling program of electrification?

 

[edwin_m]

Electrification is certainly needed but I think decarbonization is a better argument for it than coronavirus.

 

[Mikey C]

Both are relevant

Decarbonisation is crucial at a national/global level, but local air quality and the reduction of NOx is crucial in big cities

 

[kieron]

Even a fairly minor road has far more traffic (in terms of vehicles per hour) than any railway. Local pollution is more of an issue for roads, even ignoring traffic volume, as they run past houses' front doors, where the railway is more commonly found at the bottom of their gardens.

The government didn't like the way the cost of electrification projects grew once they started trying to do them, so they're unlikely to see it as the best way to put money into the economy now.

I know that ventilation can be a problem in some railway stations, but widespread electrification is unlikely to be the most cost effective way to deal with that.

 

[edwin_m]

Railway electrification is one of the few transport decarbonization measures that can be done viably at a significant scale with existing technology and at a predictable cost (on the big assumption that the mistakes of GWML etc are avoided). Other measures such as aviation biofuels or electric planes are much less certain. Even electric cars still need a lot of development to be truly competitive on function and price, and there are concerns such as availability and end-of-life management for the various unusual materials that might be needed for batteries.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Railway electrification is one of the few transport decarbonization measures that can be done viably at a significant scale with existing technology and at a predictable cost (on the big assumption that the mistakes of GWML etc are avoided).

Which is one of the key reasons why I think there will be a change of heart. Obviously Covid 19 response/fall out etc will take most government time.

 

[Mikey C]

Even a fairly minor road has far more traffic (in terms of vehicles per hour) than any railway. Local pollution is more of an issue for roads, even ignoring traffic volume, as they run past houses' front doors, where the railway is more commonly found at the bottom of their gardens.

The government didn't like the way the cost of electrification projects grew once they started trying to do them, so they're unlikely to see it as the best way to put money into the economy now.

I know that ventilation can be a problem in some railway stations, but widespread electrification is unlikely to be the most cost effective way to deal with that.

But some electrification will be necessary though, if only so that bimodes can operate in electric mode through urban areas and battery trains can get charged

 

[37424]

Which is one of the key reasons why I think there will be a change of heart. Obviously Covid 19 response/fall out etc will take most government time.

There might be some change of heart but I think it will be fairly limited and certainly not on the level that some people would like to see.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

There might be some change of heart but I think it will be fairly limited and certainly not on the level that some people would like to see.

Do some real obvious ones and If they come in on time and on/under budget do some more perhaps? Playing devils advocate that is what I would do.

 

[reddragon]

Several studies have shown a clear link between air pollution and COVID-19 deaths.

Those living in polluted areas had multiple times the risk of ICU & death than clean air areas, mostly related to long term exposure, plus smoking and health issues that air pollution causes.

COVID-19 might end up as the biggest driver of dealing with air pollution we have seen as these studies get into the political arena.

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Several studies have shown a clear link between air pollution and COVID-19 deaths.

Out of interest could you say who the several are, as it would be good to know how they did the studies and produced reports so quickly. Did they also note that people in urban areas, generally more polluted, tend to live in closer proximity, and to perhaps socialise in groups more than country dwellers?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Out of interest could you say who the several are, as it would be good to know how they did the studies and produced reports so quickly. Did they also note that people in urban areas, generally more polluted, tend to live in closer proximity, and to perhaps socialise in groups more than country dwellers?

Agreed on all points.
I am sure there are reports and a clear link between Pollution and RESPIRATORY diseases in general, but I would have thought it was way too early to link COVID19 specifically even though it is a respiratory disease.

 

[37424]

Agreed on all points.
I am sure there are reports and a clear link between Pollution and RESPIRATORY diseases in general, but I would have thought it was way too early to link COVID19 specifically even though it is a respiratory disease.

Indeed a report in one of the newspapers suggested the biggest factor in a bad response to COVID19 was obesity, and that such as smoking was low. Clearly they are still in the early stages of fully understanding this disease.

In the short term the effect of COVID19 is that I think many people will avoid public transport and use private transport as much as possible, that will certainly be the case for me in a high risk group I wont be using public transport unless there is no alternative until I can get a vaccinated

I'm always wary of using the environmental argument for electrification yes no doubt there are benefits but I imagine that the level of pollution caused by diesel trains is somewhat small compared to motor vehicle pollution, and 150 people travelling on a DMU is likely to be better than say 150 people travelling by 100 cars.

I'm not convinced that COVID19 will have any effect on electrification proposals and that electrification will continue at a fairly leisurely pace, what might be more of a factor is if the alternatives being looked such as battery EMU's and Hydrogen power prove not to be particularly viable options certainly on any large scale basis. I know people are using the argument that we should spend on infrastructure to stimulate the economy but the economy is likely to be so stuffed that there will be a limit to how much we can do that. Perhaps will also need to evaluate as whether increased working from home can be a long term trend and the implications of that.

Its difficult to get away from the fact that electrification particularly in conjunction with much needed infrastructure work and capacity improvements can be very expensive, we currently have the proposal for Huddersfield Leeds electrification but with the associated capacity improvements and infrastructure work we are talking 2.9 billion for 13 miles of electrification!

 

[reddragon]

These are some of the reports of the studies done in China, Europe and now the USA:-

Link between air pollution and coronavirus mortality in Italy could be possible

A group of scientists has found another small piece in the puzzle of understanding COVID-19. Looking for reasons why the mortality rate is up to 12% in the northern part of Italy and only approx. 4.5% in the rest of the country, they found a probable correlation between air pollution and...

www.sciencedaily.com

The world has been hit hard by coronavirus, and health services and authorities everywhere are struggling to reduce the spread, combat the disease and protect the population. Nevertheless, the pandemic will cost lives throughout the world. An environmental researcher from Aarhus University has studied whether there could be a link between the high mortality rate seen in northern Italy, and the level of air pollution in the same region. The short answer is "yes possibly." The long answer is in the article below.

Air Pollution’s Insidious Link to the Pandemic

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www.bloomberg.com

Even before the pandemic struck, outdoor air pollution was linked to the deaths of as many as nine million people each year. Now two new studies show that Covid-19 patients are more likely to die if they live in regions with high levels of air pollution.

Air pollution linked to far higher Covid-19 death rates, study finds

Dirty air increases risk of respiratory problems that can be fatal for coronavirus patients

www.theguardian.com

Air pollution linked to far higher Covid-19 death rates, study finds

Polluted US areas are among worst-hit by coronavirus – putting people of color even more at risk

The pandemic is hitting already struggling communities in places such as Los Angeles, Houston, Detroit and the Navajo Nation

www.theguardian.com

Polluted neighbourhoods in cities such as Los Angeles, Houston, Newark, and Detroit, as well as the Navajo Nation are among the country’s worst virus hotspots, a Guardian analysis found.

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Thank you, scary stuff!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

@reddragon thank you very much indeed. Very useful and informative.

 

[Greybeard33]

I am afraid I take a much gloomier view than many in this thread. The infrastructure investment programme announced in the Budget was based on the assumption that it could be financed by long term government borrowing at low interest rates. But the virus has blown that out of the water. Governments all over the world are spending money like water and racking up enormous debts in the process. The credit rating of the UK government has already been downgraded and consequently long term borrowing is likely to become more expensive. When the day of reckoning arrives, I expect there will be severe pruning of capital spending projects, with health, social care and IT infrastructure protected.

Rail passenger traffic is likely to recover only slowly, even if a vaccine eventually eliminates the threat of the virus. So I foresee virtually all rail investment being canned, both infrastructure (including electrification) and rolling stock. With ongoing high subsidy levels, due to reduced farebox revenue, we might even see a 1960s-style line closure programme as part of an effort to contain public expenditure.

 

[37424]

I am afraid I take a much gloomier view than many in this thread. The infrastructure investment programme announced in the Budget was based on the assumption that it could be financed by long term government borrowing at low interest rates. But the virus has blown that out of the water. Governments all over the world are spending money like water and racking up enormous debts in the process. The credit rating of the UK government has already been downgraded and consequently long term borrowing is likely to become more expensive. When the day of reckoning arrives, I expect there will be severe pruning of capital spending projects, with health, social care and IT infrastructure protected.

Rail passenger traffic is likely to recover only slowly, even if a vaccine eventually eliminates the threat of the virus. So I foresee virtually all rail investment being canned, both infrastructure (including electrification) and rolling stock. With ongoing high subsidy levels, due to reduced farebox revenue, we might even see a 1960s-style line closure programme as part of an effort to contain public expenditure.

Well the Government has given notice to proceed with regard to HS2 today so I'm not sure things will be as gloomy as you predict, but I do think you are right to say some infrastructure spending will be delayed or canned. In the present debate about climate emergency I'm not sure any government could get away with a 1960's style closure programme.

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

@Greybeard33 I hope you are wrong, and that the go ahead for HS2 indicates we perhaps have a government with a positive long term view. Electrification is a lot of labour and lots of steel. Better to pay people to do something rather than paying them unemployment benefit to sit at home, and likewise keep the steel producers in the UK supplied with orders rather than laying off workers and closing steel works. Health benefits will also follow if people are occupied and active.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Several studies have shown a clear link between air pollution and COVID-19 deaths.
Those living in polluted areas had multiple times the risk of ICU & death than clean air areas, mostly related to long term exposure, plus smoking and health issues that air pollution causes.
COVID-19 might end up as the biggest driver of dealing with air pollution we have seen as these studies get into the political arena.

Another study - in Louisiana. Chemical/Petrochemical air pollution related.

This small Louisiana parish has the highest death rate per capita for coronavirus in the country

partial quote

Montegut said the vast majority of people who died from coronavirus also had underlying health issues like hypertension, diabetes, kidney disease, and obesity. So far, he said in an interview last week, he had only seen a couple of
coronavirus victims who also had cancer.

Still, activists who've been long frustrated by the air pollution here argue the correlation to a high coronavirus death rate couldn't be clearer. They point to a recent nationwide study by Harvard that found a small increase in long-term exposure leads to a large increase in the coronavirus death rate.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

And another study

Preliminary study links air pollution to coronavirus deaths in England

Experts say a link is plausible as dirty air is known to harm lungs, but more research is needed

www.theguardian.com

Guardian article says study (not yet peer reviewed) links pollution to Corona virus and SARS

 

[reddragon]

Milan & Brussels have got the point as Milan is to pedestrianise 35km of city road and Brussels to close the centre to all but limited traffic, other cities are following with 'temporary' measures that may well become a permanent fixture! None of this was planned last month.

Milan Has Just Announced Ambitious Plans To Drastically Reduce Cars After COVID-19 Lockdown: Should Malta Do The Same?

A list of the negative impacts brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic is long. However, one shining light has emerged, with the public gaining a renewed focus of our carbon footprint and the effects our daily lives have on the planet. Milan, which was once the global hotspot for COVID-19, has...

lovinmalta.com

Milan Has Just Announced Ambitious Plans To Drastically Reduce Cars After COVID-19 Lockdown: Should Malta Do The Same?

Paris spends €300 million to convert roads to bike lanes during coronavirus | Cycling Today Official

The French government is working on a gradual loosening of lockdown restrictions - but the densely populated city of Paris will present particular problems.

cycling.today

Paris spends €300 million to convert roads to bike lanes during coronavirus

Brussels gives pedestrians, cyclists priority across city

To aid social distancing, roads to be opened up from early May ‘until further notice.’

www.politico.eu

Brussels gives pedestrians, cyclists priority across city

 

[reddragon]

This is very worrying and a game changer. COVID travels long distance on air pollution!

Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution

Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route may enable infections at longer distances

www.theguardian.com

Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected.

Alarm bells are only ringing louder and louder!

Is air pollution making the coronavirus pandemic even more deadly?

Dirty air is well known to worsen the heart and lung risk factors for Covid-19 - early research is cause for concern

www.theguardian.com

Dirty air is well known to worsen the heart and lung risk factors for Covid-19 - early research is cause for concern

 

[Bletchleyite]

It travels, but the question is do the viruses remain infectious? And is a viral load of one virus (virion, is it called, I forget?) enough to cause a major infection? There's some suggestion that it probably isn't, because if it was the R0 value would be much, much higher, like it is for e.g. measles?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think we are now on the cusp of realization that we have to get serious about pollution and not just decarbonisation

 

[Mikey C]

I think we are now on the cusp of realization that we have to get serious about pollution and not just decarbonisation

Decarbonisation requires a national strategy

Pollution is much more of an urban issue, a DMU chugging along a branch line in Cornwall or along the Heart of Wales line isn't a major concern, the same DMU in Birmingham New Street or Manchester Victoria is far more of a problem

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Decarbonisation requires a national strategy

Pollution is much more of an urban issue, a DMU chugging along a branch line in Cornwall or along the Heart of Wales line isn't a major concern, the same DMU in Birmingham New Street or Manchester Victoria is far more of a problem

Without getting too much into speculative ideas, perhaps that is part of the strategy. Make Marylebone completely diesel free, then Birmingham NS and then tackle each major city in order of population size. So combine the issues.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Yes saw that. Also in the Corona/Mental health thread it was mentioned in passing. I think Boris may even get behind decarbonization/pollution and get right behind a rolling electrification programme. The evidence just gets stronger and stronger in my opinion - which seems to be gaining traction with the experts too.

 

[HH]

I hope very much that the improvements in air quality we have seen due to the lockdown, will act as a wake up call, and we will see a significant boost in policies that lead to cleaner air. The worry is that the economy is going to be in such a state that the Treasury will be calling all the shots.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The worry is that the economy is going to be in such a state that the Treasury will be calling all the shots.

With any available money going to hospitals and sticking up on PPE etc.