Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

[Islineclear3_1]

On my train home this evening, virtually nobody was wearing a mask. Clearly, they are not scared of the coronavirus

Be interesting to see what changes next week...

 

[Huntergreed]

I'm far more scared for the economy than I am for the virus. The number of small business (in particular cafes and pubs) that are saying they'll struggle to even break even with distancing measures in place is disheartening and I really feel for all those that the government are almost forcing to lose their jobs through implementing overly cautious distancing measures at the expense of livelihood (and Hancock almost confirmed tonight that we're sticking with 2m until the end)

As a student going into second year, I'm particularly concerned about the job market for many of my friends when we graduate, as if it wasn't amazing before then it's going to be very, very bad indeed once this is all over with.

 

[takno]

On the other side of the coin are those that deny facts and evidence because they make them feel uncomfortable. Unfortunately this is dangerous, as it leads us to make careless and, at worst, dangerous decisions. Dismissing or denying a problem doesn't make it go away, it leads us make poor decision making which can harm ourselves and society.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Exposes The Harm Of Denying Scientific Facts

Your opinions about a large number of complex scientific issues are probably wrong. That's why we have science.

www.forbes.com

Are We Finally Seeing Science Denialism for the Death Wish That It Is?

Every day it seems we read news headlines that connect science denialism to cruel indifference and death. Just recently, when talking about the initial

news.utexas.edu

The Forbes article is written by a "contributor", which at Forbes basically means anybody who's willing to trot out a few comprehensible sentences for free, and the UTexas one is by an associate professor of English. Neither of them are likely to be particularly more qualified to judge the science than I am, let alone plenty of other people who have commented, and they're equally unlikely to have a lot of insight into the economics.

The fact of the matter is that the science has been provisional and deeply contested in lots of areas throughout. This isn't a question like vaccination or climate change where 95% of scientists are arrayed against a series of nut-jobs. It isn't unscientific to point out that WHO have been flip-flopping on a range of issues all along, and aren't necessarily themselves driven by science. It's fine to point out that some countries that didn't follow the fairly uncertain scientific consensus in UK have done fairly well out of it.

Scientists themselves have in many cases reflected this uncertainty in what they've said. Unfortunately that has left the field open for flashy overconfident scientists like Neil Findlayson and Devi Sridhar to make quite bold and unwarranted assertions, to the unwavering adulation of uncritical science fetishists like the authors of the linked articles.

 

[Enthusiast]

Compare with eg. 'Hong Kong flu' in 1968 or 'Asian flu' in 1957-8. Something has clearly changed - I think media is a big part of that.

The 1968 pandemic is interesting and I've been doing a bit of reading about it. I actually remember it. All that happened was that people knew that "Hong Kong 'Flu is about." There was no lockdown, no restrictions, people just got on with it and the virus was allowed to spread uninhibited. It killed about 30,000 people in the UK but the big difference to Covid was that about half of the victims were under 65. The population numbered about 55m at that time so the number of deaths per million was not greatly different (accepting, of course, that more deaths are inevitable). Worldwide the death toll was at least one million and some estimates put it considerably higher than that. The current Covid death toll is a tad over 400,000 (again accepting that more deaths will follow). As far as the "fear factor" goes the government deliberately went out of its way to allay fears and encourage normal activity.

There is no doubt in my mind that fifty-two years ago the Covid pandemic would have been handled very differently. I believe it began in the far east in about July and it was the autumn before it reached Europe. But life just went on as normal. There may be many reasons for this but one of the most significant is that fifty years ago there was not a general expectation that the government could protect everybody from everything.

 

[yorkie]

The 1968 pandemic is interesting and I've been doing a bit of reading about it. I actually remember it. All that happened was that people knew that "Hong Kong 'Flu is about." There was no lockdown, no restrictions, people just got on with it and the virus was allowed to spread uninhibited. It killed about 30,000 people in the UK but the big difference to Covid was that about half of the victims were under 65. The population numbered about 55m at that time so the number of deaths per million was not greatly different (accepting, of course, that more deaths are inevitable). Worldwide the death toll was at least one million and some estimates put it considerably higher than that. The current Covid death toll is a tad over 400,000 (again accepting that more deaths will follow). As far as the "fear factor" goes the government deliberately went out of its way to allay fears and encourage normal activity.

There is no doubt in my mind that fifty-two years ago the Covid pandemic would have been handled very differently. I believe it began in the far east in about July and it was the autumn before it reached Europe. But life just went on as normal. There may be many reasons for this but one of the most significant is that fifty years ago there was not a general expectation that the government could protect everybody from everything.

Agreed.

I'm far more scared for the economy than I am for the virus. ....

Absolutely; for the vast majority of the population this is far more of a concern; the livelihoods of many people is seriously under threat.

 

[MikeWM]

There is no doubt in my mind that fifty-two years ago the Covid pandemic would have been handled very differently. I believe it began in the far east in about July and it was the autumn before it reached Europe. But life just went on as normal. There may be many reasons for this but one of the most significant is that fifty years ago there was not a general expectation that the government could protect everybody from everything.

I entirely agree - this is a massive problem in our modern society. I made a similar point earlier in this thread (post #103) and am convinced this is something we need to deal with going forwards in order to have a functioning country. Imagine how much better it would be to have a Government that said 'well, there's nothing much we can do about that, use your common sense'!

 

[route101]

I'm far more scared for the economy than I am for the virus. The number of small business (in particular cafes and pubs) that are saying they'll struggle to even break even with distancing measures in place is disheartening and I really feel for all those that the government are almost forcing to lose their jobs through implementing overly cautious distancing measures at the expense of livelihood (and Hancock almost confirmed tonight that we're sticking with 2m until the end)

As a student going into second year, I'm particularly concerned about the job market for many of my friends when we graduate, as if it wasn't amazing before then it's going to be very, very bad indeed once this is all over with.

I finished uni just there. Got offered a job, not heard anything since so thi sjob aint happening now. Yes worrying .

 

[Jamesrob637]

I am wondering if we should be afraid of today's low death toll of 67, easily the lowest on anything Tuesday to Saturday since before the lockdown. Has the Government made things look good/better on the day the pubs and barbers etc reopen, knowing full well that the next two days' statistics are low anyway?

In today's defence the toll on Thursday was a double-digit figure too.

 

[bramling]

I am wondering if we should be afraid of today's low death toll of 67, easily the lowest on anything Tuesday to Saturday since before the lockdown. Has the Government made things look good/better on the day the pubs and barbers etc reopen, knowing full well that the next two days' statistics are low anyway?

In today's defence the toll on Thursday was a double-digit figure too.

Ultimately the death toll *should* be low now, having had nearly four months of extremely damaging economic and social measures. So in that sense there’s probably nothing sinister about it.

No one really knows what’s going to happen next, so to some extent we all wait in suspense.

As to fear, it does concern me that there does seem to be a subset of the population who seem to think people should be wearing masks in public, and seem to think it’s their right to shame people into doing so. The various social media feeds for my town are filled with a barrage of argument on the subject of masks, with the theme being “for goodness sake wear a mask whenever you go out, to save yourself, everyone else and the NHS”. I don’t think this level of fear is healthy at all, and I don’t think it’s benefiting anyone. It’s doubly frustrating for the many of us who have worked through this and have by and large just attempted to get on with things, taking what reasonable steps we can to attempt to keep safe.

 

[Silverlinky]

Back in the dark days of the virus the confirmed cases each day were over 5000 and the number of deaths was approaching 1000 on many days.

Treatment is better now, more targetted and there are not so many people in hospital as we have fewer cases. Plus, I don't think its wrong to say that a great many of the more vulnerable in our society have sadly died, so as a result the remaining population are that bit "healthier" overall. So 600 cases per day and under 100 deaths is about right.

Case number wise thats the 8th consecutive day with fewer than 1000 cases across the UK so we're in a lot better shape than we were, and will stay a lot better as long as everyone is sensible.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Ultimately the death toll *should* be low now, having had nearly four months of extremely damaging economic and social measures. So in that sense there’s probably nothing sinister about it.

No one really knows what’s going to happen next, so to some extent we all wait in suspense.

As to fear, it does concern me that there does seem to be a subset of the population who seem to think people should be wearing masks in public, and seem to think it’s their right to shame people into doing so. The various social media feeds for my town are filled with a barrage of argument on the subject of masks, with the theme being “for goodness sake wear a mask whenever you go out, to save yourself, everyone else and the NHS”. I don’t think this level of fear is healthy at all, and I don’t think it’s benefiting anyone. It’s doubly frustrating for the many of us who have worked through this and have by and large just attempted to get on with things, taking what reasonable steps we can to attempt to keep safe.

Nobody has asked me in Manchester why I'm not wearing a mask, and to be honest I've not even possessed one until Monday when I buy a set for the barbers Tuesday and a few rail journeys later this month. If anyone should ask me they'll get an honest answer: "because you don't have to wear one every time you step outside your front door!"

On the subject of figures, yes indeed they shouldn't be more than double-digits now. Sundays and Mondays should be next to zero, with weekdays following soon.

 

[Huntergreed]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

 

[MikeWM]

I am wondering if we should be afraid of today's low death toll of 67, easily the lowest on anything Tuesday to Saturday since before the lockdown. Has the Government made things look good/better on the day the pubs and barbers etc reopen, knowing full well that the next two days' statistics are low anyway?

In today's defence the toll on Thursday was a double-digit figure too.

Seems about right to me. Cases, hospitalisations and ICU use have all been falling for many weeks, so deaths should be too.

We’re closely following a similar curve to Italy, Spain, France etc. in the same way we did on the way up. No particular reason to believe that shouldn’t continue.

 

[MikeWM]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

It has become a political issue somehow, which is unfortunate. Hopefully it won’t continue until it gets to the stage it has in the USA, where it is *entirely* political (and has the unfortunate side-effect of putting me on the side of Trump...)

 

[Jamesrob637]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

That'll be many Scots' attitudes since Sturgeon changed the rules a week or so ago. Can imagine tensions are running high north of the border.

 

[takno]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

Probably not much help to say that it's really mostly just Scotland. England is moving in a better direction, and most of Europe is really starting to open up. Ultimately she can't keep it up forever in Scotland either, even with that joke of a "cluster" in the borders. Hang on in there and it'll be fine in a couple of weeks.

I was out and about in South London, central London and Exeter today and didn't see a single facemask outside of the rail network. There was also very little effort at physical distancing beyond what basic politeness demands. Overall people seem to be getting a grip

 

[route101]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

Thats not nice, not seen this out in the wild!

 

[bramling]

I've been screamed at a few times by people for not wearing a mask (both staff and customers in various settings).

Not going to lie, the world is turning nasty at the moment, and I really don't like it

It seems to depend what time one goes out and about. Having just come back from Tesco’s I don’t think I saw a single mask - staff nor customers. The atmosphere in there was very relaxed and chilled. Naturally evenings in such places tend to turn out the more sensible people.

By contrast passing through my town centre during the daytime there was a distinct atmosphere in places (I suspect the general crowding and abundance of long queues didn’t help). I know social media isn’t always the most rational nor representative gauge of general mood, however there was a pretty unpleasant argument going on specifically about masks, with comments like “don’t be a disgrace, cover your face” being common. This ties in with what I’ve started to see at work where we’ve had issues with people complaining about staff not wearing masks, or even confronting them in person.

My feeling on all this is quite simple - people should be free to choose what mitigation measures they feel they need and wish to take. Those of us who have worked through this have managed to stay safe so our measures must have been effective. If people’s mitigations rely on what others do or don’t do and they’re uncomfortable with that then they need to think about whether they need to change their approach (e.g. wear a full surgical mask or even a visor); or perhaps they shouldn’t be venturing out at all, especially at busier times. I shall certainly be quite happy to articulate this if challenged, politely or otherwise.

This neurosis needs to stop - it’s not good for anyone, especially as we’re going to be living with this for some time now, even if a vaccine does emerge sooner rather than later. It doesn’t benefit anyone to engineer this state of fear - especially as I’m sure there’s some people doing it for dubious reasons.

 

[johnnychips]

@bramling and @Huntergreed, I have been out so many times, legally, in the lockdown, and never, ever, experienced or seen any aggressive behaviour like you have described. Perhaps people are more civilised in Yorkshire. And I am not a Yorkshireman.

 

[yorksrob]

@bramling and @Huntergreed, I have been out so many times, legally, in the lockdown, and never, ever experienced or seen any aggressive behaviour like you have described. Perhaps people are more civilised in Yorkshire. And I am not a Yorkshireman.

Yes, I've been out and about in Yorkshire and Lancashire (in accordance with the guidance) and I've not seen any silliness. Most people wear masks on the trains, a few do in the outdoors but they don't try and brow beat those of us not wearing them outdoors.

 

[Huntergreed]

@bramling and @Huntergreed, I have been out so many times, legally, in the lockdown, and never, ever, experienced or seen any aggressive behaviour like you have described. Perhaps people are more civilised in Yorkshire. And I am not a Yorkshireman.

I think living in Scotland where Sturgeon is actively encouraging people to 'look out for each other' and take very restrictive precautions doesn't help

 

[bramling]

@bramling and @Huntergreed, I have been out so many times, legally, in the lockdown, and never, ever, experienced or seen any aggressive behaviour like you have described. Perhaps people are more civilised in Yorkshire. And I am not a Yorkshireman.

Round here this only seems to have started in the last couple of weeks. Until then, like you say, no issues at all.

We’ve had issues at work too.

 

[Bantamzen]

It seems to depend what time one goes out and about. Having just come back from Tesco’s I don’t think I saw a single mask - staff nor customers. The atmosphere in there was very relaxed and chilled. Naturally evenings in such places tend to turn out the more sensible people.

By contrast passing through my town centre during the daytime there was a distinct atmosphere in places (I suspect the general crowding and abundance of long queues didn’t help). I know social media isn’t always the most rational nor representative gauge of general mood, however there was a pretty unpleasant argument going on specifically about masks, with comments like “don’t be a disgrace, cover your face” being common. This ties in with what I’ve started to see at work where we’ve had issues with people complaining about staff not wearing masks, or even confronting them in person.

My feeling on all this is quite simple - people should be free to choose what mitigation measures they feel they need and wish to take. Those of us who have worked through this have managed to stay safe so our measures must have been effective. If people’s mitigations rely on what others do or don’t do and they’re uncomfortable with that then they need to think about whether they need to change their approach (e.g. wear a full surgical mask or even a visor); or perhaps they shouldn’t be venturing out at all, especially at busier times. I shall certainly be quite happy to articulate this if challenged, politely or otherwise.

This neurosis needs to stop - it’s not good for anyone, especially as we’re going to be living with this for some time now, even if a vaccine does emerge sooner rather than later. It doesn’t benefit anyone to engineer this state of fear - especially as I’m sure there’s some people doing it for dubious reasons.

I blame a lot of this behaviour on the government's approach to the pandemic. The whole "stay home, save lives" mantra fooled people into believing that everyone outside their households were walking virus factories, and that stepping over the boundary of your property was a combination of insta-death and you becoming a mass murderer. And all of this hasn't been helped by the media, and this country's love of bureaucracy as demonstrated by the millions of miles of tape & signs, tons of plastic and of course the daft rule-making middle managers who have been on a frenzy of video kits & PowerPoint presentations to devise ever more stranger methods to "keep safe".

And on top of this, sadly to say because I know quite a few, are the social media virtue signallers who have been having a field day in trying to show how much better they are than everyone else by not just sticking to the rules / guidelines, but going beyond them & trying to shame anyone who doesn't adhere to their "lockdown plus" rules. This situation has brought the very worst out them, with meme after meme being pasted on their walls about how they are amazing for how they obey the "rules" and how the rest of us should be ashamed. Even now in the start of the easement period, they are busy telling anyone left that will still listen how they won't be going out to the pub / restaurant / park / countryside because they don't want to be responsible for the death of people by spreading a virus that they almost certainly don't have. But push them a little and the truth quickly comes out, they are not really worried about everyone else, just themselves.

So you are right, it does have to stop, but it won't. Some people are having way too much fun with all the drama to want to stop anytime soon.

 

[DelayRepay]

I blame a lot of this behaviour on the government's approach to the pandemic. The whole "stay home, save lives" mantra fooled people into believing that everyone outside their households were walking virus factories, and that stepping over the boundary of your property was a combination of insta-death and you becoming a mass murderer. And all of this hasn't been helped by the media, and this country's love of bureaucracy as demonstrated by the millions of miles of tape & signs, tons of plastic and of course the daft rule-making middle managers who have been on a frenzy of video kits & PowerPoint presentations to devise ever more stranger methods to "keep safe".

I have a friend who's coming to stay with me later for an undetermined period of time. He lives with his parents, and since March has been furloughed. That ends tomorrow and he's got to go back to work. His parents are absolutely paranoid about him bringing the virus home from work, and have told him to resign from his job rather than take the risk.

I have known this guy for a long time and always thought his parents were sensible, rationale people. I worry about what has happened to them. Their relationship with their son is likely all but over now.

The good news for me is that said friend is returning to work because his is a barber. I have told him a haircut is worth at least three weeks board to me!

Meanwhile, yesterday I was out and about driving and had to take evasive action twice when people stepped in front of my car without looking in order to avoid passing other pedestrians on the pavement. I do wonder if there are statistics showing an increase in minor traffic accidents due to this nonsense?

 

[Bantamzen]

I have a friend who's coming to stay with me later for an undetermined period of time. He lives with his parents, and since March has been furloughed. That ends tomorrow and he's got to go back to work. His parents are absolutely paranoid about him bringing the virus home from work, and have told him to resign from his job rather than take the risk.

I have known this guy for a long time and always thought his parents were sensible, rationale people. I worry about what has happened to them. Their relationship with their son is likely all but over now.

The good news for me is that said friend is returning to work because his is a barber. I have told him a haircut is worth at least three weeks board to me!

Meanwhile, yesterday I was out and about driving and had to take evasive action twice when people stepped in front of my car without looking in order to avoid passing other pedestrians on the pavement. I do wonder if there are statistics showing an increase in minor traffic accidents due to this nonsense?

That's sad to read about your friend, hopefully common sense will eventually prevail. Nobody should be in the position of choosing their career or their family. Unfortunately it has seemingly become the norm for a lot of people, so scared by the messaging that their usual rational thought processes have gone out of the window. I really wonder what society will look like a year from now, I can't say I'm entirely looking forward to it.

 

[adc82140]

Fortunately in the part of the world (Hampshire) the silliness seems to be restricted to Facebook. I've not encountered any irrational behaviour on the street. Perhaps all these people are frightened to leave their houses. That's up to them.

 

[takno]

And on top of this, sadly to say because I know quite a few, are the social media virtue signallers who have been having a field day in trying to show how much better they are than everyone else by not just sticking to the rules / guidelines, but going beyond them & trying to shame anyone who doesn't adhere to their "lockdown plus" rules. This situation has brought the very worst out them, with meme after meme being pasted on their walls about how they are amazing for how they obey the "rules" and how the rest of us should be ashamed. Even now in the start of the easement period, they are busy telling anyone left that will still listen how they won't be going out to the pub / restaurant / park / countryside because they don't want to be responsible for the death of people by spreading a virus that they almost certainly don't have. But push them a little and the truth quickly comes out, they are not really worried about everyone else, just themselves..

I've taken the same policy as in previous referendums. First mask picture ignore, second one is a 30-day unfollow, third is a permanent unfollow. Gratuitously moronic memes, or ones which have been mindlessly repeated from America and don't apply here skip stages 1 and 2. I try to use unfollow rather than unfriend, or mute rather than unfollow because it's usually worth having people back once it's all died down. Result is a shorter but much less depressing social media roster. Can't imagine the rubbish other people are dealing with

 

[duncanp]

I've taken the same policy as in previous referendums. First mask picture ignore, second one is a 30-day unfollow, third is a permanent unfollow. Gratuitously moronic memes, or ones which have been mindlessly repeated from America and don't apply here skip stages 1 and 2. I try to use unfollow rather than unfriend, or mute rather than unfollow because it's usually worth having people back once it's all died down. Result is a shorter but much less depressing social media roster. Can't imagine the rubbish other people are dealing with

I have unfollowed some people of Facebook because of their alarmist posts regarding COVID-19.

You can still go in and look at their profile and posts if you want to, but the posts don't come up on your Facebook news feed.

I had a look at their Facebook profile this morning, and one post was about the R rate in London "..shooting up". If you look a bit deeper it has gone up from 0.7 - 0.9 last week to 0.8 - 1.1 this week, so hardly a big increase.

 

[Bantamzen]

I've taken the same policy as in previous referendums. First mask picture ignore, second one is a 30-day unfollow, third is a permanent unfollow. Gratuitously moronic memes, or ones which have been mindlessly repeated from America and don't apply here skip stages 1 and 2. I try to use unfollow rather than unfriend, or mute rather than unfollow because it's usually worth having people back once it's all died down. Result is a shorter but much less depressing social media roster. Can't imagine the rubbish other people are dealing with

One person I know was literally posting up 40-50 memes a day in an attempt to shame anyone they thought was not complying with their "rules" (which were way beyond anything mandated by the government). Eventually I just lost patience and went right to the un-friend button, as did quite a few others from what I understand. And apparently this didn't go unnoticed, with those of us with twitchy delete fingers now being described as inhuman monsters. Oh well, monster it is....

 

[UP13]

Why so much concern for older people

The cynic in me says its because they statistically vote Conservative whereas younger people tend not to...