Could buses in the Lothians be franchised?

[stevenedin]

Mod note: split from this thread - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...hian-country-bus-and-east-coast-buses.208948/

I think it would be available for a single purchaser if it is an operator not currently in the area - such as Go-Ahead or Transdev.

First aren’t in the area either. The nearest is Lanarkshire or Glasgow.

I reckon if it did ever happen it would be through a franchising scheme like Bee Network.

 

[ScotRail158725]

First aren’t in the area either. The nearest is Lanarkshire or Glasgow.

I reckon if it did ever happen it would be through a franchising scheme like Bee Network.

Edinburgh is too small for franchising, there’s only one large operator in the Lothians unlike these areas where there was numerous large operators

 

[JKP]

Edinburgh is too small for franchising, there’s only one large operator in the Lothians unlike these areas where there was numerous large operators

That is not correct. Franchising could be carried out individually by each of the four Councils that are served by Lothian and associated entities. There is nothing to stop McGills, West Coast Motors, First or Stagecoach bidding for each or several franchises if it ever came to it.

At present though the Scottish Government seem to be content with deregulation but after the next elections in 2026 who knows?

 

[FlybeDash8Q400]

That is not correct. Franchising could be carried out individually by each of the four Councils that are served by Lothian and associated entities. There is nothing to stop McGills, West Coast Motors, First or Stagecoach bidding for each or several franchises if it ever came to it.

At present though the Scottish Government seem to be content with deregulation but after the next elections in 2026 who knows?

I think it’s safe to say, franchising Edinburgh would actually do the opposite of make things better. It would simply achieve nothing and only make things worse.

At the moment, thankfully at the moment any legislation simply gives councils the authority to introduce one if they wanted, rather than it being the law to introduce one. I’m sure if any Edinburgh Council tried to franchise Edinburgh’s bus network, they would be met with a revolt similar to that of the 1980’s privatisation attempt. It’s for that reason I believe it will never ever happen.

 

[317 forever]

I think it’s safe to say, franchising Edinburgh would actually do the opposite of make things better. It would simply achieve nothing and only make things worse.

At the moment, thankfully at the moment any legislation simply gives councils the authority to introduce one if they wanted, rather than it being the law to introduce one. I’m sure if any Edinburgh Council tried to franchise Edinburgh’s bus network, they would be met with a revolt similar to that of the 1980’s privatisation attempt. It’s for that reason I believe it will never ever happen.

So, this makes franchising by Edinburgh City Council very unlikely. They would surely not want to risk work from their own Lothian Buses lost to other operators.

 

[FlybeDash8Q400]

So, this makes franchising by Edinburgh City Council very unlikely. They would surely not want to risk work from their own Lothian Buses lost to other operators.

No, as if anything, it probably leaves the council out of pocket. That’s the most important issue.

 

[Siemens Trains]

So, this makes franchising by Edinburgh City Council very unlikely. They would surely not want to risk work from their own Lothian Buses lost to other operators.

I think the present situation suits just about everyone, bar the likes of Nicholas Ridley. Deregulation has failed in Edinburgh because one operator ended up with a monopoly and there is little chance of competition within the next generation. But this isn't abused and the public are quite happy with the extensive network plus a handful of council tenders which are largely picked up by Lothian too.

Neither the council(s) nor Lothian would want the burden of franchising and there seems no point when the whole area is well served by three largedepots plus a few rural outstations. Of course this could change if Lothian allow standards to slip or fares to escalate.

 

[Numpt33]

I think the present situation suits just about everyone, bar the likes of Nicholas Ridley. Deregulation has failed in Edinburgh because one operator ended up with a monopoly and there is little chance of competition within the next generation. But this isn't abused and the public are quite happy with the extensive network plus a handful of council tenders which are largely picked up by Lothian too.

Neither the council(s) nor Lothian would want the burden of franchising and there seems no point when the whole area is well served by three largedepots plus a few rural outstations. Of course this could change if Lothian allow standards to slip or fares to escalate.

Deregulation has in fact worked as intended. Franchising would be a massive step backwards - ultimately it boils down to whether you think a Councillor or the company will be more intelligent at running buses.

Franchising would actually be a pro Liberal/Tory move to open up the market, as the Lothian market is highly consolidated. Lothian can't really expand further geographically as it isn't really allowed outside of Lothian. Other companies can't really get a look in Edinburgh. Knowing thd current shower of Clowncillors, they'll do franchising to make that ****ING tram work better.

Paradoxically I'm against public control, because I know it'll be worse than what Edinburgh has now. I actually think Lothian is better run than London.

 

[GusB]

Deregulation has failed in Edinburgh because one operator ended up with a monopoly and there is little chance of competition within the next generation. But this isn't abused and the public are quite happy with the extensive network plus a handful of council tenders which are largely picked up by Lothian too.

Has it failed? There's nothing to stop other operators setting up competing services within Edinburgh. Eastern/SMT/First did provide some competition, but much of the fleet was old and tired and the network wasn't nearly extensive enough to be useful. It certainly wasn't for me when I had to change buses in town to get to work.

Lothian can't really expand further geographically as it isn't really allowed outside of Lothian.

Where is it written that Lothian cannot operate beyond its boundaries? Despite it previously being confined largely to the Edinburgh city boundary, it's now operating in East and West Lothian - if there was an opportunity to expand that could generate additional revenue, what's to stop the company taking it?

As to whether franchising would work - is there any point? The main operator is already within public hands, so there isn't quite the same incentive to coordinate matters as in other areas.

 

[LiviCrazy]

Deregulation has in fact worked as intended. Franchising would be a massive step backwards - ultimately it boils down to whether you think a Councillor or the company will be more intelligent at running buses.

Franchising would actually be a pro Liberal/Tory move to open up the market, as the Lothian market is highly consolidated. Lothian can't really expand further geographically as it isn't really allowed outside of Lothian. Other companies can't really get a look in Edinburgh. Knowing thd current shower of Clowncillors, they'll do franchising to make that ****ING tram work better.

Paradoxically I'm against public control, because I know it'll be worse than what Edinburgh has now. I actually think Lothian is better run than London.

You talk about Edinburgh and the wider Lothian area as if interchangeable. You just have to look into West Lothian to see where it has ultimately failed. We had First then Lothian gradually crush out all smaller operators then pull out of the same areas leaving many parts of West Lothian with little to no connections. I am too young to remember the regulated market, but ultimately West Lothian has as poor a network as it has ever had. I can’t speak for the Mid and East Lothian.

Would also say that Lothian Buses - Edinburgh has always been great if you want connections to the City Centre but on the whole suburban connections have been poor (though marginally improving in recent years).

 

[Siemens Trains]

Deregulation has in fact worked as intended. Franchising would be a massive step backwards - ultimately it boils down to whether you think a Councillor or the company will be more intelligent at running buses.

Franchising would actually be a pro Liberal/Tory move to open up the market, as the Lothian market is highly consolidated. Lothian can't really expand further geographically as it isn't really allowed outside of Lothian. Other companies can't really get a look in Edinburgh. Knowing thd current shower of Clowncillors, they'll do franchising to make that ****ING tram work better.

Paradoxically I'm against public control, because I know it'll be worse than what Edinburgh has now. I actually think Lothian is better run than London.

Don't think I'd claim that deregulation worked 'as intended' in Edinburgh. As you say, our market tends to benefit from being closed to competition and the dominant operator is strongly discouraged by one or more council shareholders from running buses outside a defined area (which happens to be their own backyard).

I agree deregulation worked out well in the end, and that many routes better run than they would be under franchising. But I don't believe the Edinburgh situation fits the classic deregulated model.

 

[GusB]

Don't think I'd claim that deregulation worked 'as intended' in Edinburgh. As you say, our market tends to benefit from being closed to competition and the dominant operator is strongly discouraged by one or more council shareholders from running buses outside a defined area (which happens to be their own backyard).

The market is not closed to competition. I also dispute your claim that the "dominant operator is strongly discouraged by one or more council shareholders from running buses outside a defined area". You need to provide a source to back up your claims.

 

[scosutsut]

I'd say the fact that Lothian Motorcoaches run tours up North surely dispels the insinuation that they aren't allowed to leave the county.

I'm not stating this as fact, just as a deduction - but I'd say it's more likely that, with the shareholders being who they are, there is no interest in expanding into other counties, when there is work to do on home turf.

The company directors remit, I'd imagine reads something like "provide excellent, reliable, punctual bus services in the Lothians" followed quickly by "making profit in the process"

Crashing other people's parties just invites them to come back and crash yours - Lothian are in a good position, one that can only be weakened by aggravating a competitor.

You could argue their current position now could have been stronger had they not kicked the hornets nest with Lothian Country but I do feel they'd have ended up there latterly as operator of last resort anyway so a moot point.

I can't think of any neighbouring area where they could expand to that makes financial sense to operate commercial bus services. I think THAT is what is stopping them, not an arbitral rule.

They also aren't quite where they want to be with driver numbers, and will want that to stabilise, and the COVID hit seems to have put fleet renewal back quite a bit and realistically I think will take another 5 years or so before they get back to where they were trying to get to.

So plenty to sort at home, so focusing on that!

 

[Porty]

Has it failed? There's nothing to stop other operators setting up competing services within Edinburgh. Eastern/SMT/First did provide some competition, but much of the fleet was old and tired and the network wasn't nearly extensive enough to be useful. It certainly wasn't for me when I had to change buses in town to get to work.


Where is it written that Lothian cannot operate beyond its boundaries? Despite it previously being confined largely to the Edinburgh city boundary, it's now operating in East and West Lothian - if there was an opportunity to expand that could generate additional revenue, what's to stop the company taking it?

As to whether franchising would work - is there any point? The main operator is already within public hands, so there isn't quite the same incentive to coordinate matters as in other areas.

However earlier this year they have expanded well outside Edinburgh by buying Eve coaches with it's network of council supported bus routes around Dunbar (and Haddington).

 

[InOban]

The three Lothian Councils are all shareholders in Lothian buses. It would be another matter if they started competing with Borders Buses or Stagecoach Fife.

 

[Siemens Trains]

The market is not closed to competition. I also dispute your claim that the "dominant operator is strongly discouraged by one or more council shareholders from running buses outside a defined area". You need to provide a source to back up your claims.

I agree the market is not theoretically closed to competition. However in practice there has not been meaningful competition on normal passenger routes in Edinburgh or Midlothian for at least 10 years. The recent West Lothian situation seemed largely staged, as a way of First making a graceful exit from Livingston while disposing of their healthy Midland business as a going concern. A principle of deregulation is that competition should keep operators' services at a level demanded by the travelling public. I'm not saying passengers are unhappy with Lothian - just that there is no other company offering an alternative (outside a few niche tourist routes) and no prospect of this happening.

The question of Lothian's operating area being 'advised' by shareholders arises quite often, and the three posts above align with my own thinking. I believe there is no ban as such, the company just needs to inform at least Edinburgh Council if they want to operate outside the Lothians, which I'd assume means the former Lothian Regional Council boundary. Happy to be corrected but my source below is from the agreement with City of Edinburgh Council (going by the well-known acronym CEC) when forming Transport for Edinburgh. Other council shareholders may have similar agreements - maybe someone else has time to find relevant sources for these.

 

[Snex]

I agree the market is not theoretically closed to competition. However in practice there has not been meaningful competition on normal passenger routes in Edinburgh or Midlothian for at least 10 years. The recent West Lothian situation seemed largely staged, as a way of First making a graceful exit from Livingston while disposing of their healthy Midland business as a going concern. A principle of deregulation is that competition should keep operators' services at a level demanded by the travelling public. I'm not saying passengers are unhappy with Lothian - just that there is no other company offering an alternative (outside a few niche tourist routes) and no prospect of this happening.

The question of Lothian's operating area being 'advised' by shareholders arises quite often, and the three posts above align with my own thinking. I believe there is no ban as such, the company just needs to inform Edinburgh Council, and perhaps the other councils too. Happy to be corrected but my source below is from the agreement with City of Edinburgh Council (which goes by the well-known acronym CEC) when forming Transport for Edinburgh:

In fairness, there's very little competition anywhere. Just because there's 4 operators in one town doesn't mean there's any competition for the vast majority of people. If your bus stop only has a Stagecoach bus service, there's no competition there either. Whether GoAhead and First are operating the bus routes in the next town are pretty irrelevant as you can't get to them.

Competition was never going to work on buses as effectively each bus stop is a market and there's never going to be enough demand for multiple operators from each bus stop. It's very different to a supermarket where people come from all over, or whatever.

 

[DunsBus]

In fairness, there's very little competition anywhere. Just because there's 4 operators in one town doesn't mean there's any competition for the vast majority of people. If your bus stop only has a Stagecoach bus service, there's no competition there either. Whether GoAhead and First are operating the bus routes in the next town are pretty irrelevant as you can't get to them.

Competition was never going to work on buses as effectively each bus stop is a market and there's never going to be enough demand for multiple operators from each bus stop. It's very different to a supermarket where people come from all over, or whatever.

The architect of the 1985 Transport Act, the late Nicholas (later Lord) Ridley, went on record when drawing up the Act as saying he could see no difference between running buses and running sweetshops and believed that having competition would benefit passengers. The reality, as we know, was very different.

 

[InOban]

Fundamentally a local bus (or train ) service has to be a network, and that precludes competition except between alternative modes of transport

 

[Numpt33]

The architect of the 1985 Transport Act, the late Nicholas (later Lord) Ridley, went on record when drawing up the Act as saying he could see no difference between running buses and running sweetshops and believed that having competition would benefit passengers. The reality, as we know, was very different.

Buses are a network-good, but I think of competition as being "within transport" which means that trains, buses, bikes, and cars all compete for "passenger traffic".

Edinburgh does have very minor competition from Borders Buses, McGill's (X38), and Stagecoach which can be a good thing. I like the fact that Borders Buses aren't used much in Edinburgh as it means I can get to Midlothian very quickly. The only real competition is Brightbus which is owned by McGill's but it's for the tourist/visitor market, which is massive in Edinburgh and can probably support 2 operators.


To go back on topic, franchising is a daft idea to run in Edinburgh as this would have the effect of depressing wages for drivers and reducing investment in vehicles and you'd find the big five moving in as it stops being about money in the farebox and starts being about complying with a contract.

I think the core problem in the UK bus industry is not regulation/deregulation, it's the fact that First Group is a publicly listed company, rather than a private one.

First's shareholders clearly don't understand the industry FirstGroup are in as everyone on this forum probably knows of the various bizarre business practices at First, which do make sense to people who went to business school and think bus services are just like business school widgets instead of a network-good. McGill's and West Coast Motors are both private operators, but their services are quite good compared to First, as are most of the larger independent bus companies.

Bringing in franchising would mean that the widget-idiots (or wijiots) would actually be closer to understanding how to run a bus service, but it then becomes about contract design & enforcement, and hiring more expensive lawyers which will only be a bad thing in the long term.