Could Commuting as we know it soon end?

[21C101]

The last 18 months or so have seen the roll out of fibre to the cabinet Broadband at 40-80mb and unlimited use packages of same. This makes it possible, with suitable software (which is now available from various sources) to work from home connecting in exactly the same way to all the office servers email and files, and, importantly, as quickly, as if you were in the office. Even video conferencing over such links is becoming feasible. Laptops have also got much lighter. Home telephones have unlimited landline use packages. All this means a person can work from home as efficiently as in an office (or more so), providing there is enough visits to the office for personal contact to sort things out that need personal contact.

Office rents, heating lighting and servicing are one of a companies biggest overheads. When the economic cycle turns again in another few years and companies need to pull in their horns, I think canning 75% of their office space will be too big a hanging fruit to be ignored.

Many people will be told to base themselves at home and when they have meetings, meet at coffee shops or on video conferences, perhaps travelling to employers premises once or twice a week. With this implemented it will then occur to employers "why am I paying someone to sit at home for 37.5 hours per week" and think "instead of paying them for hours worked I can pay them for work done and save a lot of money as I'm only paying them to do something"

I think this revolution will have started within a decade and the implications for white collar workers are huge.

For the railways the implications tooo are huge. Peak hour journeys will not disappear but they will drastically reduce in number. Conversely offpeak journeys will increase as people visit more for meetings or specific purposes.

The timetable and fare definitions between peak and offpeak will wither away and "commuter" franchises will need less trains but use them all day. Engineering works will also have the problem of no mid day "quiet period" for short maintenance work possessions.

If anything the railways may be more profitable because the flows are evened out, but I suspect the days of needing lots of extra capacity built on commuter routes may be coming to an end and we may see things like the Class 700s being modified to split them into two six car units as they are running round two thirds empty too much.

 

[swt_passenger]

They've been saying this for nearly 30 years.

The vast majority do not work in offices.

 

[Antman]

They've been saying this for nearly 30 years.

The vast majority do not work in offices.

Indeed, they've also been saying that we'll have more leisure time for 30 years or more, I'm still waiting:cry:

 

[W-on-Sea]

Not across the board, but in some sectors, yes.

 

[dgl]

and in all fairness unless you are transferring really large files ADSL2+ (up to 24mbit) in most cases is sufficient to working from home (hey when I was at college in 2007 we has 2x2mb leased line for the internet!).

The main problem with ADSL has been the slow uplinks (256k for standard ADSL) and that is the main reason for going with FTTC VDSL systems.

And of course there will always be a need for people to have offices and I think that all this years of talk about everyone working from home is never really going to happen.

 

[yorksrob]

There'll be some increase in home working I'm sure, but I can't really see office workplaces functioning without an office. My employer has instigated such policies, and people do work from home some of the time, but people still need to work together a decent proportion of the time.

The meetings in cafe's idea was mentioned when we moved to this system, but it was soon abandoned as highly impractical in terms of noise and privacy.

That said, an evening out of the peaks may well occur. I also agree that we'll need to keep an eye on what the employer class are up to as well

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Would there be similar discussions on this matter being held in Germany and France?

 

[21C101]

There'll be some increase in home working I'm sure, but I can't really see office workplaces functioning without an office. My employer has instigated such policies, and people do work from home some of the time, but people still need to work together a decent proportion of the time.

Oh I agree. The efficiency savings from people working together and having casual contact are much underrated. Indeed that underrating is one reason I think it will happen, not because its a good idea, but because its a very fast way of cutting costs (by a lot) and increasing your exec bonus if you do it, and once some start they will all rush into it herd like. Only years later will they discover its not saving them half as much as they thought, but by then bonuses and plaudits will have been collected and the ambitious execs will have moved on before their mistakes catch up with them. Meanwhile many of the office blocks s will have become low cost social housing.

There will obviously still be plenty of offices, but I would expect them to be significantly smaller and have a much higher proportion of meeting rooms and hot desks than previously. Think how much office space there was in 1960 and how much more there is now and put that into reverse.

The meetings in cafe's idea was mentioned when we moved to this system, but it was soon abandoned as highly impractical in terms of noise and privacy.

I think the concept will take off first with small businesses and cafes will soon latch on, perhaps providing meeting rooms that can be hired cheaply. Some libraries already provide hirable meeting rooms.

That said, an evening out of the peaks may well occur.

Even a change so that on average, people commute three or four days a week not five would be huge for the railways, especially if they travel some of the time offpeak.

I also agree that we'll need to keep an eye on what the employer class are up to as well

You can see the thought process

At home so paying for their own heating - ching.

If they are at the office I have to pay them to talk at the tea machine or go to the toilet, or not tasked or sitting in meetings, or reading company briefings.

But now I'm still paying them 7.5 hours a day to sit at home and getting no more of work out of them.

I know, put them on a zero hours contract and only pay them for the work they actually produce at a piecework rate, then if they are not doing anything productive or sitting on the bog they don't get paid and I can probably get away with not paying them for training or reading briefings/company communications and maybe even make them buy their own stationary computer, printer and postage......

Nothing that hasn't happened already to many blue collar workers. I'm not saying its a good idea (unless you are short term shareholders or the psychopath getting paid to implement it and destroy everyones job security) which is why I'm pretty convinced that the next economic downturn will see it happen.

 

[Hornet]

With this implemented it will then occur to employers "why am I paying someone to sit at home for 37.5 hours per week" and think "instead of paying them for hours worked I can pay them for work done and save a lot of money as I'm only paying them to do something"

That would be the zero hours contract route. The 1% get richer whilst the 99% continue to be dragged into corporate servitude. Glad I will be out of the rat race in a couple of years. Still it's what the people want and have continually voted for.

 

[21C101]

That would be the zero hours contract route. The 1% get richer whilst the 99% continue to be dragged into corporate servitude. Glad I will be out of the rat race in a couple of years. Still it's what the people want and have continually voted for.

Indeed, after the Tories win the next election, I'm pretty sure Beecroft (no fault or explanation sacking with sacked people paid statutory redundancy) will be back on the agenda.

 

[Bletchleyite]

They've been saying this for nearly 30 years.

The vast majority do not work in offices.

Though a disproportionately large number of rail commuters, particularly in the South East where it causes the biggest issues, do.

I can (and do) do my job fully remotely, I firmly believe what I do is the future of office work.

Neil

 

[radamfi]

Would there be similar discussions on this matter being held in Germany and France?

A better question is how common is home working in South Korea, known for being the world leader in internet connectivity.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A better question is how common is home working in South Korea, known for being the world leader in internet connectivity.

Indeed so, but I was asking about two other countries within the EC in my posting.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Most people cannot do their jobs at home. It doesn't matter how good Skype is, or how good the broadband is, most jobs require you to be in your workplace doing work-type things.

A lot of people can do some of their work at home- admin, mostly- but the nuts-and-bolts still really involve one person dealing with another person in a work setting.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh I agree. The efficiency savings from people working together and having casual contact are much underrated.

That can be true, but it doesn't need to be daily. Once a week would be sufficient.

There will obviously still be plenty of offices, but I would expect them to be significantly smaller and have a much higher proportion of meeting rooms and hot desks than previously.

That's exactly how my employer works - we have quite a small "touch base" type office in which there are no dedicated desks, not even for senior management.

I think the concept will take off first with small businesses and cafes will soon latch on, perhaps providing meeting rooms that can be hired cheaply. Some libraries already provide hirable meeting rooms.

Yes, that would help. Regus do provide that kind of facility, though, I have used it myself.

At home so paying for their own heating - ching.

But not paying 4 to 5 grand a year for a season ticket. Ching, on both sides. One of those "win win situations" business are fond of?

I know, put them on a zero hours contract and only pay them for the work they actually produce at a piecework rate, then if they are not doing anything productive or sitting on the bog they don't get paid and I can probably get away with not paying them for training or reading briefings/company communications and maybe even make them buy their own stationary computer, printer and postage......

Bring your own device is a common thing already, particularly by those who wish to use things like Macbooks and the latest iPhones. Postage - what's that? Printer - why print anything?

Nothing that hasn't happened already to many blue collar workers. I'm not saying its a good idea (unless you are short term shareholders or the psychopath getting paid to implement it and destroy everyones job security) which is why I'm pretty convinced that the next economic downturn will see it happen.

Not saying that some employers won't abuse it (or some employees won't either) - but it's an arrangement that is working very well for me and my employer alike.

Neil
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A better question is how common is home working in South Korea, known for being the world leader in internet connectivity.

Connectivity is good and has been good enough for years - most modern business applications don't require any more bandwidth than browsing the Web. It's an attitude change that some will find hard.

Neil

 

[Metrailway]

My employer is currently undergoing a massive downsizing of the number of locations. It currently has well over 300 locations (mainly local offices) and is looking to only have 12 (if that) main offices, with a few touch down locations in the country by 2025.

One of the reasons for this downsizing is that it expects full home working for a large number of staff, as video conferencing and general communication can be done online rather than face to face.

 

[table38]

Couple of observations, we suggested to our employer years ago that if we all worked one day a week from home, they could cut their commuting "footprint" by 20% They didn't fall for it.

I've sat in a lot of boring meetings thinking "kill me now", so the advantage of sitting at home on the PC/phone and being able to do other things was great. (eg. browsing or sending text messages in a physical meeting is usually frowned on!)

Avoiding the commute gave me an extra 2 hours a day, plus you could do something useful at lunch time like mow the lawn!

Once I got fibre at home, I swear the internet was faster than at the office (rather than some crappy MPLS circuit at work shared with 500 other people)

However some people with wife+kids at home preferred to come into the office to get some peace and quiet.

Personally, I found that the work/life balance suffered, and there wasn't that mental "separation" between work and home; the commute gave you time to adjust to work or back to home.

So much so, I'm starting a new job soon which will be office-based, and I'm quite looking forward to it. (I probably won't be saying that in 2 months time when I've been stuck on the M60 for two hours )

 

[deltic]

Office rents have remained broadly static for decades and with increasing density of occupation office costs as a proportion of total costs have fallen considerably. Unlike with housing, developers have more than increased supply to keep up with demand. We have seen the decline of second order office markets and more concentration in major centres which has driven a lot of rail commuting as its not so easy or cheap to drive and park in our major cities.

Working at home is of course possible but is often not desirable to employers - while a few people have eureka moments sitting in the bath most new ideas are generated through conversations between people. There are also practical issues such as how do you get IT to come to your home to sort out your printer or laptop and who approves whether your office meets health and safety requirements, working on your kitchen table is not appropriate. .

 

[yorksrob]

and there wasn't that mental "separation" between work and home; the commute gave you time to adjust to work or back to home.

Yes, I find this quite important and often understated.
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My employer is currently undergoing a massive downsizing of the number of locations. It currently has well over 300 locations (mainly local offices) and is looking to only have 12 (if that) main offices, with a few touch down locations in the country by 2025.

One of the reasons for this downsizing is that it expects full home working for a large number of staff, as video conferencing and general communication can be done online rather than face to face.

I expect your employer will come unstuck trying to undergo such a massive shift. Telecoms and teleconferencing are all well and good, but they have their limitations.

 

[table38]

There are also practical issues such as how do you get IT to come to your home to sort out your printer or laptop

We asked people to bring it in to the nearest office, or as we had a pool of spare kit, we sometimes did a meet half-way (so someone in darkest Dorset met someone from Birmingham in Bristol).

who approves whether your office meets health and safety requirements, working on your kitchen table is not appropriate. .

We had someone in facilities who came around to your house! It was part of the T&Cs for homeworking.

 

[deltic]

We asked people to bring it in to the nearest office, or as we had a pool of spare kit, we sometimes did a meet half-way (so someone in darkest Dorset met someone from Birmingham in Bristol).



We had someone in facilities who came around to your house! It was part of the T&Cs for homeworking.

I think DSE assessments need to be done annually - was insurance ever discussed and who is liable for what?

 

[Welly]

I repair medical equipment in the local hospital, a job that definitely cannot be done from home!

 

[table38]

I think DSE assessments need to be done annually - was insurance ever discussed and who is liable for what?

Yes I believe yearly assessments happened.

Re insurance, I know you weren't allowed to have any other staff or customers at your "home office" due to liability issues, and I assume you had to notify your house insurers.

But they didn't contribute towards any extra insurance costs or fuel etc.

They were just in the process of giving all the homeworkers some sort of Microsoft Lync "IP Phones" when I left!

 

[21C101]

I repair medical equipment in the local hospital, a job that definitely cannot be done from home!

No reason why you cannot be home based, tasked from home then set off into the van to whichever hospital you have been sent to and visiting stores every couple of weeks or so to stock up on spares and going back home at the end of shift to do the paperwork.

You might say, "but I work for the hospital and am based there". Once upon a time there would have been hospital telephone technicians employed by the NHS there and based there maintaing the hospital PABX (internal telephone exchange). Almost certainly that will now be occasional visits in a van from a home start technician (employed by a telecom company)

 

[fowler9]

It would require a hell of a lot of managers to change their mindset of wanting to know what is going on all the time. This isn't impossible of course but would be hard. I'm sure many of us have had a boss who has to micro manage everything.

 

[21C101]

It would require a hell of a lot of managers to change their mindset of wanting to know what is going on all the time. This isn't impossible of course but would be hard. I'm sure many of us have had a boss who has to micro manage everything.

GPS tracking as used extensively with outbased staff in vehicles.

 

[Nym]

GPS tracking as used extensively with outbased staff in vehicles.

And check just how fast we've been driving

 

[21C101]

And check just how fast we've been driving

So I gather. And where you've been driving. No fun van driving anymore.

 

[fowler9]

GPS tracking as used extensively with outbased staff in vehicles.

I sit facing my managers and they still want to know what you have been doing for almost every second of the day even when they can see you working and hear you on the phone. I'm not sure GPS is the answer.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've sat in a lot of boring meetings thinking "kill me now", so the advantage of sitting at home on the PC/phone and being able to do other things was great. (eg. browsing or sending text messages in a physical meeting is usually frowned on!)

To be honest, if the meeting is that bad it should be cancelled. Far too much time is wasted in meetings. Indeed, many people seem to do this:

On the other hand, Scrum-style "standups" (obviously done sitting down) of fixed length, say 30 minutes with 15 minutes dedicated to the pure Scrum stuff (what did you do yesterday, what are you going to do today, any impediments) and the other 15 to quick clarifications, are *very* effective for remote-working project teams. And instant messenger is quite good for those "wander over and have a chat" conversations.

Neil
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I sit facing my managers and they still want to know what you have been doing for almost every second of the day even when they can see you working and hear you on the phone. I'm not sure GPS is the answer.

There's a phrase for that - "bad management" - or rather management that's driven by who is there (presenteeism) rather than what is achieved, and/or excessive micromanagement.

Neil