HYPODERMIC
Member
Not that long ago, I remember reading a thread on this forum asking where we all think Britain's railways will be in 50 years; the replies were almost uniformly positive, mostly predicting that patronage will have risen and that several closed lines will have re-opened, both of which sound like entirely reasonable guesses given how things are panning out in today's Britain.
But I think that within the next fifty years the railways will probably enter a rapid, severe and terminal decline leading to the permanent withdrawal of passenger services on most of the national network and widespread line closures.
Why? Because I think "driverless cars" - also known as autonomous vehicles - have the potential to deliver a brutal blow to railways, and indeed all public transport.
For those unfamiliar with driverless cars, they do what they say on the tin - through a mix of high-tech sensors and all manner of computational technologies, they're able to self-navigate without a human driver in control. That sounds like a futuristic fantasy, but the technology is here today and its already happening. Watch this video of the Google car:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
Clearly, current models are primitive and limited in scope. The technology needs to mature further before theyre a viable transport solution in real-world scenarios, and similarly electric vehicles as a whole have some maturing to do as well before oil producers should start panicking.
But I think we have to assume that the technology will improve, much as technology tends to do, especially as oil prices rise and congestion increases, pushing up the commercial incentive to develop electric/smart cars into mass-market products.
Just think of the potential benefits of driverless cars:
+ No need for a driving licence.
+ Commuting by car while working on a laptop.
+ Letting the car do the school run by itself.
+ Going to town and telling to car to drive home to save on parking costs.
+ Cars to driving closer together at higher speeds, increasing road capacity.
+ No more drunk driving and fewer road traffic accidents, so lower insurance costs.
+ Battery-powered, so very low fuel costs.
+ Autonomous car hire pools revolutionising urban transport.
Even if the mainlines survive, I cant see a happy future ahead for regional railways. Winding branch lines thorugh semi-urban/semi-rural communities will be finished as soon as driverless cars provide a proper alternative.
Railways were born into a world of streetcars, trolleybuses, narrowboats, horse-draw carriages and telegrams. They are the last man standing from that Victorian age - and everything has its time.
Are railways doomed?
But I think that within the next fifty years the railways will probably enter a rapid, severe and terminal decline leading to the permanent withdrawal of passenger services on most of the national network and widespread line closures.
Why? Because I think "driverless cars" - also known as autonomous vehicles - have the potential to deliver a brutal blow to railways, and indeed all public transport.
For those unfamiliar with driverless cars, they do what they say on the tin - through a mix of high-tech sensors and all manner of computational technologies, they're able to self-navigate without a human driver in control. That sounds like a futuristic fantasy, but the technology is here today and its already happening. Watch this video of the Google car:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
Clearly, current models are primitive and limited in scope. The technology needs to mature further before theyre a viable transport solution in real-world scenarios, and similarly electric vehicles as a whole have some maturing to do as well before oil producers should start panicking.
But I think we have to assume that the technology will improve, much as technology tends to do, especially as oil prices rise and congestion increases, pushing up the commercial incentive to develop electric/smart cars into mass-market products.
Just think of the potential benefits of driverless cars:
+ No need for a driving licence.
+ Commuting by car while working on a laptop.
+ Letting the car do the school run by itself.
+ Going to town and telling to car to drive home to save on parking costs.
+ Cars to driving closer together at higher speeds, increasing road capacity.
+ No more drunk driving and fewer road traffic accidents, so lower insurance costs.
+ Battery-powered, so very low fuel costs.
+ Autonomous car hire pools revolutionising urban transport.
Even if the mainlines survive, I cant see a happy future ahead for regional railways. Winding branch lines thorugh semi-urban/semi-rural communities will be finished as soon as driverless cars provide a proper alternative.
Railways were born into a world of streetcars, trolleybuses, narrowboats, horse-draw carriages and telegrams. They are the last man standing from that Victorian age - and everything has its time.
Are railways doomed?