Could Luton Airport see a large increase in passengers, and how convenient is it compared to other airports?

[wanderingriver]

Moderator note: Split from

EWR, Universal and Wixams

The BBC News website has an article about the Universal theme park here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-68797303 Universal Destinations and Experiences has movie-related resorts in places like Hollywood in the United States, Osaka in Japan and Beijing in China. It...

www.railforums.co.uk

Universal have released an information pack ready for consultation with the local residents, which contains some information on the planned transport connections. The document is well detailed but here are a few notable points.

Facilitating upgrades to local transport infrastructure


How would people travel to this site?


When would people travel to this site?


View attachment 155907

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The stations themselves are unknown other than that they will not exceed 30m in height.

All of this is subject to final sign off of the park.

I wonder if they are going to do some sort of shuttle between Luton and the park. Even if they don’t, they’ll be more people flying into Luton to get to the park from abroad

 

[londonteacher]

I wonder if they are going to do some sort of shuttle between Luton and the park. Even if they don’t, they’ll be more people flying into Luton to get to the park from abroad

To be honest I don’t think that this will be a massive increase from Luton specifically. Apart from those visiting Universal exclusively, most will visit as part of a longer trip.

Luton Airport doesn’t have the correct flight destinations (except Europe) and is unlikely to gain any from further afield. Most airlines fly into Birmingham (potentially 1 change at Leicester), Heathrow (1 change at Farringdon), Gatwick (direct).

 

[AlastairFraser]

Birmingham (potentially 1 change at Leicester)

Better changing at Bletchley for Kempston Hardwick/whatever station they build on EWR for the park.

 

[Energy]

To be honest I don’t think that this will be a massive increase from Luton specifically. Apart from those visiting Universal exclusively, most will visit as part of a longer trip.

Luton Airport doesn’t have the correct flight destinations (except Europe) and is unlikely to gain any from further afield. Most airlines fly into Birmingham (potentially 1 change at Leicester), Heathrow (1 change at Farringdon), Gatwick (direct).

I'd expect a decent amount of the European traffic to come via Luton on-budget airlines. If the park is as substantial as Universal's others I wouldn't be shocked if we see flight-to-Gatwick + Thameslink ticket + park ticket holiday.

 

[A0wen]

To be honest I don’t think that this will be a massive increase from Luton specifically. Apart from those visiting Universal exclusively, most will visit as part of a longer trip.

Luton Airport doesn’t have the correct flight destinations (except Europe) and is unlikely to gain any from further afield. Most airlines fly into Birmingham (potentially 1 change at Leicester), Heathrow (1 change at Farringdon), Gatwick (direct).

Luton's issue is its runway is too short for any of the 'heavy' jets - it's 7000ft, whereas Stanstead, Gatwick, Heathrow and Birmingham have 10,000ft - and there's no easy way to extend it by 3,000ft. Also there is spare capacity at Stanstead, Gatwick and Birmingham so no justification for extending Luton (beyond Luton council's empire building plans).

 

[AlastairFraser]

Also there is spare capacity at Stanstead, Gatwick and Birmingham

Especially since Gatwick's runway redevelopment project is underway

 

[A0wen]

Especially since Gatwick's runway redevelopment project is underway

The problem with Gatwick is it's an utter PITA to get to if you live north of London - bringing in more flights to Stanstead or Birmingham would be better if Universal is the ultimate destination, not least because a direct coach could transfer people there in 90 mins (from either).

 

[yorkie]

The problem with Gatwick is it's an utter PITA to get to if you live north of London - bringing in more flights to Stanstead or Birmingham would be better if Universal is the ultimate destination, not least because a direct coach could transfer people there in 90 mins (from either).

I prefer flying to/from Gatwick than Stansted, as despite living geographically much closer to Stansted, it's quicker and cheaper for me to get to Gatwick!

XC really don't want people to use them to get to Stansted (and even if I pay their high fares, I experience slow journey times and diabolical connections) and by the time I've got to King's Cross, it's easier to get to Gatwick than Stansted.

The other day I managed to get from Cambridge to York in the same time as London to York, but to achieve that I had to run up and down the footbridge at Peterborough; I was also only able to achieve that as I was in possession of an (expensive) flexible ticket. The official connection is over an hour.

As for Birmingham; I did that once, again it more expensive for me, and more time-consuming, than travelling from Gatwick.

 

[A0wen]

I prefer flying to/from Gatwick than Stansted, as despite living geographically much closer to Stansted, it's quicker and cheaper for me to get to Gatwick!

XC really don't want people to use them to get to Stansted (and even if I pay their high fares, I experience slow journey times and diabolical connections) and by the time I've got to King's Cross, it's easier to get to Gatwick than Stansted.

The other day I managed to get from Cambridge to York in the same time as London to York, but to achieve that I had to run up and down the footbridge at Peterborough; I was also only able to achieve that as I was in possession of an (expensive) flexible ticket. The official connection is over an hour.

As for Birmingham; I did that once, again it more expensive for me, and more time-consuming, than travelling from Gatwick.

However, if you live on the WCML - which has Watford, Hemel Hemsptead, Milton Keynes and Northampton on it - there are direct trains to Birmingham with better journey times than Gatwick and Luton.

Stansted is easier to drive to than Gatwick if you live north of London. Whereas Gateick is only easily accessible if you live on Thameslink and don't mind a slow journey through London.

 

[dk1]

The problem with Gatwick is it's an utter PITA to get to if you live north of London - bringing in more flights to Stanstead or Birmingham would be better if Universal is the ultimate destination, not least because a direct coach could transfer people there in 90 mins (from either).

Gatwick is pretty easy now if you live in East Anglia with a change at Cambridge offering 2 direct trains per hour then an easy change at Stratford/Farringdon via the Elizabeth Line. Stansted is great for us too especially now it’s direct from Norwich.

XC really don't want people to use them to get to Stansted (and even if I pay their high fares, I experience slow journey times and diabolical connections) and by the time I've got to King's Cross, it's easier to get to Gatwick than Stansted.

XC have said they hope to return to a full service to Stansted again later this year.

 

[yorkie]

XC have said they hope to return to a full service to Stansted again later this year.

Even if there is a 'full' service, the cost is high and the journey slow.

The impression I get is that XC don't want my custom, on any of their routes. Now they have ditched the HSTs, I rarely use them.

Luton has the potential to be easily reached; the biggest drawback is that the bus doesn't always connect into an LNER service, so it can be a bit convoluted. I did once walk across Hitchin, and change again at Peterborough. A bit of a faff but preferable than using XC to Stansted!

However, if you live on the WCML - which has Watford, Hemel Hemsptead, Milton Keynes and Northampton on it - there are direct trains to Birmingham with better journey times than Gatwick and Luton.

Yes it's better from the WCML, but going from Northampton to Gatwick is still quicker than Northampton to Stansted!

Let's face it: few people like Stansted and if you aren't in the Greater Anglia area or a direct train from it, then it's not likely to be a good option.

But Luton doesn't offer much in the way of convenience, unless you live on the Midland Mainline or the surrounding area.

 

[Starmill]

I prefer flying to/from Gatwick than Stansted, as despite living geographically much closer to Stansted, it's quicker and cheaper for me to get to Gatwick!

XC really don't want people to use them to get to Stansted (and even if I pay their high fares, I experience slow journey times and diabolical connections) and by the time I've got to King's Cross, it's easier to get to Gatwick than Stansted.

The other day I managed to get from Cambridge to York in the same time as London to York, but to achieve that I had to run up and down the footbridge at Peterborough; I was also only able to achieve that as I was in possession of an (expensive) flexible ticket. The official connection is over an hour.

As for Birmingham; I did that once, again it more expensive for me, and more time-consuming, than travelling from Gatwick.

Even when (assuming it does go as planned) the full hourly service of through trains between Stansted Airport and Peterborough is restored I'm not sure it would help. Given Peterborough - Cambridge is very popular and served by only this route and only booked three cars, with no scope for any more services, it's probably not a huge surprise unfortunately.

XC have said they hope to return to a full service to Stansted again later this year.

Nearly everyone using Stansted Airport to connect as an airline passenger will be travelling with Ryanair. Unfortunately the reality is that these people are not going to pay XC's fares, not even their cheapest non-refundable ones. As above there's almost zero unused capacity between Cambridge and Peterborough for more Stansted Airport passengers to fit into.

 

[AlastairFraser]

The problem with Gatwick is it's an utter PITA to get to if you live north of London - bringing in more flights to Stanstead or Birmingham would be better if Universal is the ultimate destination, not least because a direct coach could transfer people there in 90 mins (from either).

It is an arse to get to from some parts of the northern South East, but it isn't an insurmountable issue since the Thameslink expansion happened. You have frequent direct services to Bedford and Cambridge, and plenty of choice one change away at King's Cross/St Pancras Thameslink.

 

[dk1]

Nearly everyone using Stansted Airport to connect as an airline passenger will be travelling with Ryanair. Unfortunately the reality is that these people are not going to pay XC's fares, not even their cheapest non-refundable ones. As above there's almost zero unused capacity between Cambridge and Peterborough for more Stansted Airport passengers to fit into.

That is not necessarily true. Yes there are some very busy XC services on the Stansted axis but generally there is space. They along with GAs Norwich services are well used south of Cambridge too. A quick check the week after next has advance fares from Peterborough to the Airport on direct XC services as low as £10.80.

£14.40 advance fares available tomorrow as well. XC don’t appear overpriced on this route at all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However, if you live on the WCML - which has Watford, Hemel Hemsptead, Milton Keynes and Northampton on it - there are direct trains to Birmingham with better journey times than Gatwick and Luton.

Though not to connect in either direction with typical crack of dawn out, late back budget flights.

 

[Snow1964]

Luton Airport doesn’t have the correct flight destinations (except Europe) and is unlikely to gain any from further afield. Most airlines fly into Birmingham (potentially 1 change at Leicester), Heathrow (1 change at Farringdon), Gatwick (direct).

Luton's issue is its runway is too short for any of the 'heavy' jets - it's 7000ft, whereas Stanstead, Gatwick, Heathrow and Birmingham have 10,000ft - and there's no easy way to extend it by 3,000ft. Also there is spare capacity at Stanstead, Gatwick and Birmingham so no justification for extending Luton (beyond Luton council's empire building plans).

The latest CAA monthly figures (January 2024) show following numbers of passengers :

1 Heathrow 6,004,576
2 Gatwick 2,370,450
3 Stansted 1,946,934
4 Manchester 1,790,148
5 Luton 1,019,360
6 Edinburgh 894,763
7 Birmingham 716,326
8 Bristol 519,767
9 Glasgow 432,447
10 Belfast International 364,664
11 Liverpool (John Lennon) 273,739
12 Newcastle 263,165
13 London City 215,374

But airport usage is very seasonal for some airports, so here are latest figures for a summer month, August 2023, some airports more than twice the passengers in the summer compared to January

1 Heathrow 7,554,482
2 Gatwick 4,502,986
3 Manchester 3,086,665
4 Stansted 2,912,864
5 Luton 1,691,587
6 Edinburgh 1,480,878
7 Birmingham 1,307,941
8 Bristol 1,127,582
9 Glasgow 708,820
10 Belfast International 633,084
11 Newcastle 559,301
12 East Midlands 528,672
13 Leeds Bradford 506,239

https://www.caa.co.uk/Documents/Download/11899/dda6ab8f-a98e-4fe9-9eef-d68fecd22130/16408

https://www.caa.co.uk/Documents/Download/10283/ada3f8ef-b87d-49a4-95de-00a6d2e67a03/16197