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Covid-19 to have a permanent downward effect on commuting patterns with more partial working from home?

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Tom Quinne

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Like many I have been working at home for 9 months. Luckily for me it coincided with a project that I don't think I would have been able to handle the workload of unusually having to turn things round same day to avoid the whole thing going wrong if I had had three hours a day of travel plus office distractions. Epecially as the busy time was first and last thing in the day.

At times it was hard, but at times working in an office is hard.

The pluses. No alarm at 6AM, can do an 11 hour day and still feel fresher and have more evening time than a 7.5 hour day in the office. Not exhausted on Saturday and energy at the weekend. Can pop out and get non food shopping during the week

The minuses, some things more difficult to do without face to face. Not too bad in a family house with other people. Would be grim in a small flat.

I found it (having several teenage kids at home also doing schoolwork online) a bit like living in University student house. Slowly my working pattern became more like a student, some days work spanned the whole day from getting up to going to bed. Others less so. If you had a bad nights sleep you could switch everything off at lunchtime, have an afternoon kip then go back to it refreshed.

Not sure it is so good for less experienced workers who will miss out on the knowledge learned incidentally from being with colleagues in an office.

As to the future I think contracts will move towards your place of work being at home but you will be expected to attend the office to the extent needed to do your job. So it will be mix and match. Companies will have less desks than people as they cut back on expensive office space so you will have to book a desk in advance and blocj booking and sitting on your own will be frowned upon.

The danger. With workers sat at home, companies will question why they are paying people a salary to sit at home when they could just pay a small retainer and then pay piece rate for work actually done, which is how it was before the industrial revolution when people worked at home in cottage industries.

This is where I see the real unspoken danger of working from home, add into the mix employers - now clients saying I’m not paying you company sick pay or paid annual leave let alone a pension.

WFH will be the worst thing to hit the employment marker since the 19th century, but the majority don’t want to, or can’t see it happening.

Just like no one saw the way 2020 turned out....
 
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Tom Quinne

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My sister-in-law and her fiancé seem to encapsulate both sides. Both went on furlough and my sister in law was clawing at the walls and was getting really depressed. Her fiancé on the other hand was bragging about how he was being paid to stay at home and play video games all day.

How long before his tune changes, and the more switched on companies decide that their staff are “doing” more non work related activities than actual work during their working paid days at home.
 

21C101

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How long before his tune changes, and the more switched on companies decide that their staff are “doing” more non work related activities than actual work during their working paid days at home.
Hence my previous comment:

"The danger. With workers sat at home, companies will question why they are paying people a salary to sit at home when they could just pay a small retainer and then pay piece rate for work actually done, which is how it was before the industrial revolution when people worked at home in cottage industries"
 

peters

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How long before his tune changes, and the more switched on companies decide that their staff are “doing” more non work related activities than actual work during their working paid days at home.

There seems to be a general conscious that parents can't/won't properly work from home if their children are at home. However, some workers without children actually have fewer distractions at home and aren't tired from their commute so are actually more productive at home.
 

35B

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There seems to be a general conscious that parents can't/won't properly work from home if their children are at home. However, some workers without children actually have fewer distractions at home and aren't tired from their commute so are actually more productive at home.
I’m not sure where that consensus about parents is, because it is an utterly and completely false perception when applied to any parents with children out of school who I’ve had professional dealings with during 2020.

As for productivity working from home more generally, I’d suggest the last year has highlighted just how much can be done without rampant presenteeism.
 

peters

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I’m not sure where that consensus about parents is, because it is an utterly and completely false perception when applied to any parents with children out of school who I’ve had professional dealings with during 2020.

Well from my workplace (which had 15 working mums*) they changed who was and wasn't furloughed due to many of the mums struggling trying to look after children (who would normally have been in school) at the same time as trying to work from home. The one who managed best was the mum of one 15 year old and had previous experience of working from home, with the mum of the 2 year old being the one who couldn't cope at all and ended up being front of the queue for redundancy due to not being able to do her job from home and not being able to return to the office due to the nursery being closed.

A Microsoft survey reported 54% of parents* reported that the struggle to work from home.

A Forbes survey reported 65% of those working from home saying they are more productive, while parents* on average, admit to being 1% less productive.

A BBC News report also mentioned many parents* who were working from home were struggling to manage that at the same time their children couldn't go to school or nursery.

* Of course parents means all parents so if mums on average do more childcare than dads, the figures from the Forbes and Microsoft will be the average for both, which won't illustrate any of the extremes e.g. one mum at home with multiple children while dad is still going to workplace.
 

pdq

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It depends on the ages of the children. My two are 11 and 15 so they are able to largely occupy themselves when not engaged in online learning, which itself is now much more mature than it was back in the spring. 10 years younger and it would have been harder, with, I guess, a lot more flexible work timings between my wife and I.
 

Ianno87

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I’m not sure where that consensus about parents is, because it is an utterly and completely false perception when applied to any parents with children out of school who I’ve had professional dealings with during 2020.

Definite split of opinion between parents. Usually depends on how much time parents individually actually have to devote to their kids in lieu of school.


As for productivity working from home more generally, I’d suggest the last year has highlighted just how much can be done without rampant presenteeism.

Ending "presenteeism" is definitely a good thing, empowering people to choose how, where and when they work most effectively.
 

35B

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Well from my workplace (which had 15 working mums*) they changed who was and wasn't furloughed due to many of the mums struggling trying to look after children (who would normally have been in school) at the same time as trying to work from home. The one who managed best was the mum of one 15 year old and had previous experience of working from home, with the mum of the 2 year old being the one who couldn't cope at all and ended up being front of the queue for redundancy due to not being able to do her job from home and not being able to return to the office due to the nursery being closed.

A Microsoft survey reported 54% of parents* reported that the struggle to work from home.

A Forbes survey reported 65% of those working from home saying they are more productive, while parents* on average, admit to being 1% less productive.

A BBC News report also mentioned many parents* who were working from home were struggling to manage that at the same time their children couldn't go to school or nursery.

* Of course parents means all parents so if mums on average do more childcare than dads, the figures from the Forbes and Microsoft will be the average for both, which won't illustrate any of the extremes e.g. one mum at home with multiple children while dad is still going to workplace.
The point about averages is fair, and it will affect different roles differently. But I stand by my view - the idea that there is a consensus in businesses is far from certain.
 

The Ham

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It depends on the ages of the children. My two are 11 and 15 so they are able to largely occupy themselves when not engaged in online learning, which itself is now much more mature than it was back in the spring. 10 years younger and it would have been harder, with, I guess, a lot more flexible work timings between my wife and I.

It also depends on how well they get on when together, mine vary in age from a pre schooler to a Junior and depending on which are together depends on how many fights/disputes that need to be monitored/resolved. Generally when there's just two it works well, however when they're with their cousins* and there's 6 of then it also works well.

* This is from pre Covid-19.
 

Ianno87

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It also depends on how well they get on when together, mine vary in age from a pre schooler to a Junior and depending on which are together depends on how many fights/disputes that need to be monitored/resolved. Generally when there's just two it works well, however when they're with their cousins* and there's 6 of then it also works well.

* This is from pre Covid-19.

I find I can manage one whilst working. Two becomes more difficult when they can't agree what to play with, what to watch on TV etc etc.
 

WelshBluebird

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I have some very mixed feelings regarding working from home.
I work in a specialised design profession that relies heavily on close collaboration and I do feel that working from home has made certain tasks more difficult. Some things are just easier when you are in the same room as the other people.

Me being young and sharing a small flat, I simply don’t have the space for a desk and chair and certainly don’t have a spare room to turn into a dedicated work area.

I have spent the past 9 months working from an armchair in my bedroom with my laptop on my lap.

In the office, I have a very high end PC with two very large monitors so working from a tiny laptop screen via a laggy screen sharing app is a very noticeable downgrade which can be highly frustrating at times.

I also miss interacting face to face with my colleagues. I miss overhearing conversations about other projects. I miss the hustle and bustle of the city.

Although we have a weekly catch up meeting, I feel almost completely ignorant about what else is going on in the company.

Yes, I have saved a lot of money from not travelling but I worry about the changes which might occur in a post covid world.

I’ve always been drawn to the buzz and vibrancy of cities but if 40% fewer people are communing then will any of the shops, restaurants, bars and other leisure facilities which bring vibrancy to a place survive? Will all the people saving money from not committing be surprised when there are no restaurants or bars in which to spend that money? Most of the shops and restaurants in city centres are sustained by office workers so a large drop in patronage can’t be a good thing.
Combined with the demise of retail is the city centre a thing of the past?
Will large parts of our cities become derelict wrecks like they where I the 70’s?
Things don’t bode well for rail travel either. What is the point of HS2 if there are going to be 40% fewer commuters? Will we need a second Beeching axe in a few years?

Perhaps I am being a little hyperbolic but most of our cities have improved massively within the past 20 years and it seems a shame to throw all that away.

Going back to more practical matters, I agree that home working must be terrible for new recruits and especially terrible for people just joining my industry. How do you get a feel of the company when they don’t even have an office?

In my industry once you start working you learn my doing. But much of that learning happens passively just by being immersed within an office environment. You overhear conversations, you can see not only what people are doing but how they are doing it.

Perhaps in some industries a computerised training course is sufficient to bring people up to speed, but not in my industry.

I think people in my industry do realise that we are not particularly suited to working from home so we will remain mostly office based.

I think post pandemic I will definitely be one of the people working mainly from the office, perhaps 5 days per week.

I appreciate the social aspect of working so I wouldn’t be interested in taking a job where I never meet my colleagues.
There is a lot to unpack there, but being honest, half of it sounds like your company has been pretty useless in terms of supporting you.
Not everywhere is like that. Many places have either let staff take monitors, office chairs, powerful desktop PC's etc home with them, whilst others have given staff budgets to purchase home office equipment on company money. Some places are actually making staff feel more connected to the business by giving more regular an detailed updates in terms of what is going on, and providing time to just generally catchup with colleagues on calls etc. And in terms of starting a new job - remote work really is not a new thing, and many hugely successful companies already did it before COVID, some to the extent of being 100% remote. If it didn't work those companies wouldn't have done it. Appreciate that doesn't help some living situations though (not just yours too - but thinking of families with kids etc), but that is why looking forward very few people are talking about 100% remote work (those that are talking about that will likely be the companies and staff who were already either doing 100% remote or thinking about it) .

As for for comments about cities - remember there will always be hubs for things like entertainment and for times when staff do need to meet (even if its not every single work day). Cities aren't just cities because of the offices there. Sure it may help with some trade for some businesses - but it certainly isn't the be all and end all.

The danger. With workers sat at home, companies will question why they are paying people a salary to sit at home when they could just pay a small retainer and then pay piece rate for work actually done, which is how it was before the industrial revolution when people worked at home in cottage industries.

That is a pretty big stretch I think. Especially for most industries.

I’ve no idea how it could be implemented but I did float the idea of a working from home tax a few weeks back. These people in the ‘new world’ are raking it in with their full salaries, no travel costs and then not putting anything back into the economy by not busing coffee, lunch, socialising after work etc.
Well yes, because people don't have additional heating costs for example to pay? And as for not putting anything back into the economy, if my and my colleagues experiences are anything to go by, we are! It is just we are spending that money on places local to where we live instead of local to the office.

This is where I see the real unspoken danger of working from home, add into the mix employers - now clients saying I’m not paying you company sick pay or paid annual leave let alone a pension.
I mean that is a pretty big stretch isn't it? Aside from the fact that paying those things is law for people classed as employees, and I am sure HMRC will take a very dim view of companies pretending that their staff are just contractors when in reality they are employees (indeed that is why the IR35 changes that came into law last year were introduced).

I live in London and can only fibre direct to the property, i.e. not via the BT exchange. That means there is a choice of just 1 ISP I can go with if I want decent internet connectivity, all the others offer standard broadband only which is speeds of up to 16mb. My borough has 328,000 residents so I don't understand why BT haven't upgraded my local exchange as its not as if I live in some remote part of the country!
I think most people with poorer internet would bite your hand off to get fibre direct to the property tbh! I've resorted to 5G to get decent internet as the phone line alternative is useless and there is no option of fibre here, despite living right bang next to Bristol city centre.

I think the issue really lies with the VPN that companies provide. In normal times they have enough capacity as a lot of people are in the office but with everyone working from home there isn't sufficient bandwidth to go round everyone. Earlier in the year my employer had to ask people north of Coventry to use the secondary VPN, which was only ever designed to be a failover option in times of outage, whereas before everyone would be on the primary connection without any problems. Some companies will have upgraded their VPN capacity but I expect some will have a make do attitude and not increase VPN capacity.
This is where the cloud beats all. My company moved to a cloud based VPN a few weeks before the WFH stuff started (totally unconnected to COVID - but very well timed in the end!) which means we aren't capacity constrained in the same way as a more traditional setup.

You could and people can claim an extra £6 a week in tax benefits. If costs are over that then they need to submit receipts.
I wish my heating expenses were just an extra £6 a week! As for receipts - that only works if your company will reimburse you - most aren't.
 

35B

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This is where the cloud beats all. My company moved to a cloud based VPN a few weeks before the WFH stuff started (totally unconnected to COVID - but very well timed in the end!) which means we aren't capacity constrained in the same way as a more traditional setup.
Just picking up on that point, it's not necessarily the technology that counts - but the company's willingness to invest in the tools for the job to allow people to work effectively.
 

tommy2215

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Though there will be many commuters who switch to working from home permanently, I believe an even bigger threat to railway passengers numbers is the widespread fear of enclosed public spaces that has been sown into people's minds. The Government's and the media's non-stop year long fear campaign has evidently been a big success; so much so that I believe the fear of public transport, pubs, offices etc. will carry on well beyond the pandemic. I also think that for many people who turn to working from home on a permanent basis, it won't be the environmental benefits or convenience of it that tips the balance, it will be that ingrained fear of a crowded environment that does it. While that fear will go away eventually, I worry it will take many years; and that will be the reason hospitality and public transport will suffer a great deal well into the future.
 

yorksrob

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Though there will be many commuters who switch to working from home permanently, I believe an even bigger threat to railway passengers numbers is the widespread fear of enclosed public spaces that has been sown into people's minds. The Government's and the media's non-stop year long fear campaign has evidently been a big success; so much so that I believe the fear of public transport, pubs, offices etc. will carry on well beyond the pandemic. I also think that for many people who turn to working from home on a permanent basis, it won't be the environmental benefits or convenience of it that tips the balance, it will be that ingrained fear of a crowded environment that does it. While that fear will go away eventually, I worry it will take many years; and that will be the reason hospitality and public transport will suffer a great deal well into the future.

I went to plenty of pubs when we were between lockdowns 1 and 2, and apart from the first couple of weeks building up, they seemed to be doing fine, as far as the various restrictions allowed. Customer numbers weren't the limiting factor.

Of course, this might not be quite the same for public transport, which is more of a means to an end for most people, but there still seemed to be a decent cohort of people who aren't that afraid of other people.
 

edwin_m

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Though there will be many commuters who switch to working from home permanently, I believe an even bigger threat to railway passengers numbers is the widespread fear of enclosed public spaces that has been sown into people's minds. The Government's and the media's non-stop year long fear campaign has evidently been a big success; so much so that I believe the fear of public transport, pubs, offices etc. will carry on well beyond the pandemic. I also think that for many people who turn to working from home on a permanent basis, it won't be the environmental benefits or convenience of it that tips the balance, it will be that ingrained fear of a crowded environment that does it. While that fear will go away eventually, I worry it will take many years; and that will be the reason hospitality and public transport will suffer a great deal well into the future.
Assuming the vaccine is effective and rolled out fully and the Covid numbers drop to a very low level, I think this fear will drop away. It's similar to the post-Hatfield drop in railway ridership when there was thought to be a risk of derailments due to gauge corner cracking, and numbers recovered once it became clear this wouldn't happen and the network got back to normal. Another example is how the Tube passenger numbers quickly returned to normal after the 7/7 attacks, even though in that case the risk (of further attacks) was still there.
 

kristiang85

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Though there will be many commuters who switch to working from home permanently, I believe an even bigger threat to railway passengers numbers is the widespread fear of enclosed public spaces that has been sown into people's minds. The Government's and the media's non-stop year long fear campaign has evidently been a big success; so much so that I believe the fear of public transport, pubs, offices etc. will carry on well beyond the pandemic. I also think that for many people who turn to working from home on a permanent basis, it won't be the environmental benefits or convenience of it that tips the balance, it will be that ingrained fear of a crowded environment that does it. While that fear will go away eventually, I worry it will take many years; and that will be the reason hospitality and public transport will suffer a great deal well into the future.

Some fears of crowds might not be a bad thing - people who miss the social life of the office but want to avoid the cattle carts of the old days might well travel just as much but avoid peak times (with employers being more flexible helping this). I've always hated packed spaces anyway (not for fears of viruses, I just don't like huge crowds of people), so the renewed enthusiasm for flexibility in working hours will work to my benefit here, but I'll certainly still be going into the London office a lot when this is back.

Likewise the pubs - instead of the few horrific packed pubs you see at 6pm or on Saturdays, maybe people will spread out more to the businesses that were always a bit emptier a street or two down, spreading the spending a bit. Again, I always did this anyway.
 

yorksrob

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Likewise the pubs - instead of the few horrific packed pubs you see at 6pm or on Saturdays, maybe people will spread out more to the businesses that were always a bit emptier a street or two down, spreading the spending a bit. Again, I always did this anyway.
Absolutely, me too !
 

Bald Rick

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Though there will be many commuters who switch to working from home permanently, I believe an even bigger threat to railway passengers numbers is the widespread fear of enclosed public spaces that has been sown into people's minds. The Government's and the media's non-stop year long fear campaign has evidently been a big success; so much so that I believe the fear of public transport, pubs, offices etc. will carry on well beyond the pandemic. I also think that for many people who turn to working from home on a permanent basis, it won't be the environmental benefits or convenience of it that tips the balance, it will be that ingrained fear of a crowded environment that does it. While that fear will go away eventually, I worry it will take many years; and that will be the reason hospitality and public transport will suffer a great deal well into the future.

I think there will be a small proportion - perhaps 5% - of the population who will feel this way. But the reduction in commuters from remote working will reduce overcrowding on most trains to such an extent that it won’t be an issue fir the average traveler
 

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A few recent takes from larger employers indicate that hybrid homeworking is likely here to stay, which chimes with my observations from various friends at different organisations. Anecdotally smaller businesses are more focused on returning to premises than larger firms which may have invested more heavily in IT?

"HSBC is to reduce its office space around the world by nearly 40% as part of sweeping cost cutting designed to capitalise on new part-office-part-homeworking arrangements after the pandemic." - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/23/hsbc-looks-to-asia-after-profits-plunge-34

"BP staff set to work from home two days a week" - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56319623

Lloyds Bank to reduce space as " 77% of Lloyds’ 68,000 employees said they wanted to work from home for three or more days a week in the future" https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ofits-plunge-covid-defaults-dividend-payments

And from the opposite side Goldman Sachs "this is not ideal for us. And it’s not a new normal. It’s an aberration that we’re going to correct as soon as possible.” -https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/02/25/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-calls-for-workers-to-return-to-the-office/
 

DB

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A few recent takes from larger employers indicate that hybrid homeworking is likely here to stay, which chimes with my observations from various friends at different organisations. Anecdotally smaller businesses are more focused on returning to premises than larger firms which may have invested more heavily in IT?

"HSBC is to reduce its office space around the world by nearly 40% as part of sweeping cost cutting designed to capitalise on new part-office-part-homeworking arrangements after the pandemic." - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/23/hsbc-looks-to-asia-after-profits-plunge-34

"BP staff set to work from home two days a week" - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56319623

Lloyds Bank to reduce space as " 77% of Lloyds’ 68,000 employees said they wanted to work from home for three or more days a week in the future" https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ofits-plunge-covid-defaults-dividend-payments

And from the opposite side Goldman Sachs "this is not ideal for us. And it’s not a new normal. It’s an aberration that we’re going to correct as soon as possible.” -https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/02/25/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-calls-for-workers-to-return-to-the-office/

Time will tell, but I remain unconvinved that in the medium term the increase in home working is going to be as great as many are predicting.
 

GodAtum

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I feel like I've won the lottery, saving over £2k on a season ticket! With those savings I bought a car. I have a lot more energy for weekend activities working from home during the week. Plus I get up 2 hours later then I would do going to work and have a lot more time in the evenings with the family instead of coming home and going straight to bed.
 

WelshBluebird

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And from the opposite side Goldman Sachs "this is not ideal for us. And it’s not a new normal. It’s an aberration that we’re going to correct as soon as possible.” -https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/02/25/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-calls-for-workers-to-return-to-the-office/

I wonder if that line is due to where they have money invested rather than anything else.

Time will tell, but I remain unconvinved that in the medium term the increase in home working is going to be as great as many are predicting.

There is a massive difference between enforced homeworking without schools or social lives (which is what we've basically had this last 12 months) and hybrid homeworking where you are still able to go to the office if need be (either because of meetings etc, or because your home isn't good for home working) but can work from home too if that suits.

If homeworking has become popular in the last 12 months despite the issues we've had in the last year, it will only get more popular when some of the downsides go away.
 

Bald Rick

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If homeworking has become popular in the last 12 months despite the issues we've had in the last year, it will only get more popular when some of the downsides go away.

I’m not sure how home working can be ‘more popular’ than it has been the last 12 months, when most people who have been doing it have been required to!
 

DB

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If homeworking has become popular in the last 12 months despite the issues we've had in the last year, it will only get more popular when some of the downsides go away.

I've seen the impact it has though - it leads to less cohesion and considerable difficulties in inducting new staff. These things were not apparent initially but are now beginning to make themselves felt. I think it likely that more than two days a week at home is not going to be something which many employers want long term.

As regards employees, many are now finding that it's not as great as they first thought - especially those who are single and/or who don't have great working conditions at home and not enough space to improve them.

While working partly from home may well suit some jobs, a lot of those were already doing it before this in any case.
 

philosopher

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A few recent takes from larger employers indicate that hybrid homeworking is likely here to stay, which chimes with my observations from various friends at different organisations. Anecdotally smaller businesses are more focused on returning to premises than larger firms which may have invested more heavily in IT?

"HSBC is to reduce its office space around the world by nearly 40% as part of sweeping cost cutting designed to capitalise on new part-office-part-homeworking arrangements after the pandemic." - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/23/hsbc-looks-to-asia-after-profits-plunge-34

"BP staff set to work from home two days a week" - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56319623

Lloyds Bank to reduce space as " 77% of Lloyds’ 68,000 employees said they wanted to work from home for three or more days a week in the future" https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ofits-plunge-covid-defaults-dividend-payments

And from the opposite side Goldman Sachs "this is not ideal for us. And it’s not a new normal. It’s an aberration that we’re going to correct as soon as possible.” -https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/02/25/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-calls-for-workers-to-return-to-the-office/
The issue for railways is that assuming employees have some choice on whether they can work at home or in the office, it will likely be those commuters with the longest commutes who decide to work from home the most. These commuters are more likely to use railways than those with shorter commutes. So the railways may be disproportionately affected by greater working from home.
 

DB

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These commuters are more likely to use railways than those with shorter commutes. So the railways may be disproportionately affected by greater working from home.

That depends on where they work - long-distance commuting mainly applies to London. All of the large cities have a lot of people commuting in from a 20-30 mile radius, many by train.
 

Bald Rick

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28 Sep 2010
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29,269
The issue for railways is that assuming employees have some choice on whether they can work at home or in the office, it will likely be those commuters with the longest commutes who decide to work from home the most. These commuters are more likely to use railways than those with shorter commutes. So the railways may be disproportionately affected by greater working from home.

Right principle, but wrong impact. Those with longer commutes are more likely to pay the most in fares, and that is how the railway will feel the impact.
 

GodAtum

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11 Dec 2009
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Right principle, but wrong impact. Those with longer commutes are more likely to pay the most in fares, and that is how the railway will feel the impact.

And as long mask masks are mandatory i won't be commuting to work.
 
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