Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[Class 33]

Yes, it would seem there's an issue today with the the number of positive tests, but fixating on the number each day isn't the way to go about things..

Thing is myself and many others are hoping the number of positive tests are going to start falling now and knowing we're heading in the right direction. We also hope that the number of positive tests doesn't start "surging" again, as we know Boris and the cabinet can have knee-jerk reactions to this and bringing in yet more restrictions/laws and worst case scenario - a full national lockdown.

 

[Domh245]

Thing is myself and many others are hoping the number of positive tests are going to start falling now and knowing we're heading in the right direction. We also hope that the number of positive tests doesn't start "surging" again, as we know Boris and the cabinet can have knee-jerk reactions to this and bringing in yet more restrictions/laws and worst case scenario - a full national lockdown.

I'm much the same - seeing the rise in cases is cause for concern with the potential for new restrictions coming in, but I'm trying to only check the numbers a couple of times per week now. I'm also as good as ignoring the last day of number for fear of a repeat of last weekend - 2 days of low numbers with false optimism and then a sudden (and disappointing) increase, the tests by sample date, looking around 3 days back is generally the clearest picture

Franticly refreshing the dashboard at 1600 each day won't change anything, but not doing it is certainly helping my whole outlook on everything

 

[Class 33]

Todays stats have just been published.

New cases - 12,872

Deaths - 49

However don't fret too much about that shocking high increase in cases....

Due to a technical issue, which has now been resolved, there has been a delay in publishing a number of COVID-19 cases to the dashboard in England. This means the total reported over the coming days will include some additional cases from the period between 24 September and 1 October, increasing the number of cases reported.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Todays stats have just been published.

New cases - 12,872

Deaths - 49

However don't fret too much about that shocking high increase in cases....

Whoops. Fortunately you can look at the "date of test" graph to correct that back out.

 

[yorksrob]

Whoops indeed !

 

[jnjkerbin]

I wonder how many will be reporting these figures without context and using them justify a further tightening of restrictions.

 

[Meerkat]

The attitude to backdated cases reminds me a bit of buying crates of beer.
i haven’t spent that much on beer because I haven’t drunk it all this evening.
Then the next day I haven’t spent anything on beer because I bought it yesterday.

 

[adc82140]

So as a back of fag packet calculation :

Say about 7000 today, and 5000 spread over the last week and a half. That would go a long way towards accounting for that dip last weekend.

 

[Class 33]

I wonder how many will be reporting these figures without context and using them justify a further tightening of restrictions.

The Mirror didn't waste any time coming up with their " UK coronavirus cases skyrocket by 12,872 - almost double previous 24 hour record " headline article.

Just hope there's no knee-jerk reaction from Boris and the cabinet with this.....

 

[adc82140]

The knee jerk reaction should be having a nice chat with the IT bods who failed for a week and a half to notice this problem.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Mirror didn't waste any time coming up with their " UK coronavirus cases skyrocket by 12,872 - almost double previous 24 hour record " headline article.

Just hope there's no knee-jerk reaction from Boris and the cabinet with this.....

Classic clickbait. The rest of the article explains why.

 

[yorksrob]

The knee jerk reaction should be having a nice chat with the IT bods who failed for a week and a half to notice this problem.

Meeting without coffee !

 

[takno]

The knee jerk reaction should be having a nice chat with the IT bods who failed for a week and a half to notice this problem.

I doubt there's anything as coherent and organised as an IT system involved. And even if there is, it's all being run by the former head of TalkTalk, so they won't have wasted any money on actual IT bods to keep it running.

 

[adc82140]

And the dashboard has finally been updated, and as I predicted the peaks and troughs of last week have flattened out, with no spectacular rise in cases.

 

[Crossover]

And the dashboard has finally been updated, and as I predicted the peaks and troughs of last week have flattened out, with no spectacular rise in cases.

Do you have a link to this please?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Do you have a link to this please?

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

You'll want to look at the graph headed "Cases by specimen date"

 

[adc82140]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Click on the "cases by specimen date" then on the Data tab.

Edit: beaten to it by seconds!

 

[Scotrail12]

As predicted, people are up in arms about "13,000" cases on Twitter. I even saw a link to a petition asking for schools to be closed until an effective vaccine.

I can't describe the hatred I feel for people like them.

 

[Crossover]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

You'll want to look at the graph headed "Cases by specimen date"

Thanks. Yeah, by specimen date it doesn’t look quite so terrible

 

[Richard Scott]

As predicted, people are up in arms about "13,000" cases on Twitter. I even saw a link to a petition asking for schools to be closed until an effective vaccine.

I can't describe the hatred I feel for people like them.

Some people have no idea about numbers. Most people on here realise 13,000 isn't a large number compared to 66,000,000.

 

[yorksrob]

The media doesn't help. It could say "13,000 but... "

 

[Silverlinky]

The Worldometer site has amended the figures to show 7070 new cases today with the rest of the "missed" historic cases added to previous figures.

 

[Howardh]

The Worldometer site has amended the figures to show 7070 new cases today with the rest of the "missed" historic cases added to previous figures.

Which figures? UK I presume??

I have looked at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk it says...

Due to a technical issue, which has now been resolved, there has been a delay in publishing a number of COVID-19 cases to the dashboard in England. This means the total reported over the coming days will include some additional cases from the period between 24 September and 1 October, increasing the number of cases reported.

The "cases" graph on the front page show cases going up (people tested positivs) like a mountain slope, yet when you click "more on cases" the graph is clearly downwards. Why don't the two match up?

 

[adc82140]

The media doesn't help. It could say "13,000 but... "

To be fair at least the front pages are free of it. Fortunately the media is more interested in the comings and goings of Donald Trump.

As predicted, people are up in arms about "13,000" cases on Twitter. I even saw a link to a petition asking for schools to be closed until an effective vaccine.

I can't describe the hatred I feel for people like them.

How about they close down twitter until a vaccine is found, and I'm fully prepared for that to be "never"

 

[317 forever]

The attitude to backdated cases reminds me a bit of buying crates of beer.
i haven’t spent that much on beer because I haven’t drunk it all this evening.
Then the next day I haven’t spent anything on beer because I bought it yesterday.

This reminds me of my day out in London in June. As I had enough value on my Oyster card without even topping it up in advance, it felt like I got "free" bus and rail travel within London!

The Mirror didn't waste any time coming up with their " UK coronavirus cases skyrocket by 12,872 - almost double previous 24 hour record " headline article.

Just hope there's no knee-jerk reaction from Boris and the cabinet with this.....

I never like these graphs that includes numbers testing positive in April, July, October and intervening months. These make out that more people are getting infected now than in April, which is simply not true. This is an anomaly merely resulting from how few tests were even conducted earlier in the year.

 

[Domh245]

The "cases" graph on the front page show cases going up (people tested positivs) like a mountain slope, yet when you click "more on cases" the graph is clearly downwards. Why don't the two match up?

The one on the front page of the dashboard is the second graph on the cases page - "Cases by date reported". The scaling doesn't help as it massively distorts it. The only graph on the cases page that has a downwards trend is the specimen date one, but the caveat on that one is that cases are added retrospectively to that and so the current downward section is likely to be revised upwards

 

[LAX54]

Some people have no idea about numbers. Most people on here realise 13,000 isn't a large number compared to 66,000,000.

and surely more people taking tests, must also push the 'positive' figure upwards ?

 

[adc82140]

and surely more people taking tests, must also push the 'positive' figure upwards ?

The BBC said as much on Breakfast today. Yesterday was the third highest amount of tests turned around. I think some of the new labs must have come on line.

 

[DustyBin]

As predicted, people are up in arms about "13,000" cases on Twitter. I even saw a link to a petition asking for schools to be closed until an effective vaccine.

I can't describe the hatred I feel for people like them.

Im sure they know exactly what they’re doing when they release these figures. It’s no different to the infamous 50,000 cases per day graph; not a prediction but we know it will be latched onto by certain sections of society so job done.....

 

[greyman42]

The Mirror didn't waste any time coming up with their " UK coronavirus cases skyrocket by 12,872 - almost double previous 24 hour record " headline article.

Just hope there's no knee-jerk reaction from Boris and the cabinet with this.....

On The Andrew Marr Show, Boris actually played it down and said we have to become less fearful of the virus. Perhaps he is trying to mirror Rishi Sunak's similar comments last week which went down well with a lot of people.